Yellow-Reluctance — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$15

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

1,327

lifetime

Volume

$2.67M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$2.01K

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-02

last 06-08 03:11

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

59% 100% +$9

Politics

31% — —

Crypto

6% 100% +$6

Sports

4% — —

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

15 active days in 12wk • peak 22 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize?	39	$169.5K	85,218	85,218	+0	open	—	01-16 02:28
will eleven die in stranger things season 5	9	$165.3K	82,841	82,841	+0	open	—	01-04 02:33
Will the US strike Iran next?	22	$154.0K	77,167	77,167	+0	open	—	02-11 21:42
us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by january 31	45	$153.6K	111,307	44,039	+67,268	open	—	02-03 21:02
will the us strike somalia next 656	60	$125.5K	99,255	26,748	+72,507	open	—	01-25 21:55
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	36	$120.8K	60,651	60,651	+0	open	—	02-03 00:12
earnings mentions netflix 2026 01 20 warner bros 1 times	73	$108.5K	73,243	35,513	+37,730	open	—	01-22 01:57
will melania say career during ai talk on friday	48	$98.7K	79,187	20,000	+59,187	open	—	01-20 20:17
will cardi b perform during the super bowl lx halftime show	35	$98.6K	73,010	25,924	+47,085	open	—	02-10 03:08
Over $3M committed to the Infinex public sale?	4	$95.8K	47,967	47,967	+0	open	—	01-08 17:53
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	5	$78.9K	40,000	40,000	+0	open	—	01-31 05:55
Over $5M committed to the Infinex public sale?	10	$78.5K	44,755	34,042	+10,713	open	—	01-10 04:16
us x venezuela military engagement by december 31 391 819 722 945 174 285 817 971 353 859 836 598 255 382 192 983	19	$74.2K	74,368	0	+74,368	open	—	01-04 04:26
Will the US strike Iran next?	27	$71.9K	72,237	0	+72,237	open	—	01-27 18:42
over 70m committed to the ranger public sale rwrn 523	27	$69.1K	70,000	0	+70,000	open	—	01-10 15:55
over 30m committed to the ranger public sale 951	2	$59.7K	30,000	30,000	+0	open	—	01-10 15:11
Will the US strike Iran next?	12	$59.1K	59,281	0	+59,281	open	—	02-04 22:20
nicols maduro seen in public by january 5	7	$58.5K	56,548	2,068	+54,479	open	—	01-04 03:12
over 60m committed to the ranger public sale 296 929 632	15	$57.9K	29,138	29,138	+0	open	—	01-10 15:51
will trump say million or billion or trillion 10 times during cnbc interview	53	$54.6K	33,471	21,275	+12,196	open	—	01-23 02:43
Will the US strike Iran next?	6	$52.8K	27,000	26,000	+1,000	open	—	01-29 23:08
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30?	103	$50.7K	21,664	29,153	-7,490	open	—	01-29 21:37
will trump say unbelievable or fantastic or incredible 10 times during panthers visit	7	$48.3K	48,411	0	+48,411	open	—	01-18 00:30
will trump talk to emmanuel macron in january	46	$38.6K	36,069	3,000	+33,069	open	—	01-30 00:07
Over $2M committed to the Infinex public sale?	13	$34.4K	17,239	17,239	+0	open	—	01-08 17:53
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	14	$31.1K	20,850	10,400	+10,450	open	—	06-01 23:43
us x iran meeting by february 6 2026	5	$30.0K	15,023	15,023	+0	open	—	02-07 07:41
Over $10M committed to the Infinex public sale?	32	$28.3K	28,301	0	+28,301	open	—	01-10 08:26
elon musk of tweets january 10 january 12 165 189	2	$24.8K	24,800	0	+24,800	open	—	01-12 16:25
Fogo FDV above $300M one day after launch?	17	$23.1K	12,664	10,468	+2,196	open	—	01-16 20:56

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-08 03:11:33	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0xbc6d14…
06-08 00:20:34	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x22ce92…
06-01 23:43:54	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	3,821	99¢	$3,794	0x38f2b4…
06-01 23:43:07	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	26	99¢	$26	0xda7673…
06-01 23:43:05	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xe64413…
06-01 23:43:05	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0xd8c7bc…
06-01 23:43:05	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	21	99¢	$20	0xcd71af…
06-01 23:43:05	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	29	99¢	$29	0x980700…
06-01 23:43:05	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	21	99¢	$21	0x8f76e2…
06-01 23:43:05	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	437	99¢	$434	0x52e61e…
06-01 23:43:03	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	21	99¢	$20	0x491619…
06-01 23:43:03	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	29	99¢	$29	0x23dd5e…
06-01 23:43:03	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	16	99¢	$16	0x009183…
06-01 23:43:01	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5,985	99¢	$5,943	0x134c24…
06-01 22:28:18	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	10,400	100¢	$10,348	0xc0b227…
06-01 22:08:28	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10,400	100¢	$10,348	0x2f666e…
05-31 22:45:36	Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election?	No	SELL	941	100¢	$939	0xc69b2b…
05-31 22:41:10	Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election?	No	SELL	96	100¢	$96	0xdb62e8…
05-31 22:38:00	Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election?	No	SELL	160	100¢	$160	0x67b369…
05-31 22:28:15	Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election?	No	BUY	1,000	99¢	$987	0xff390e…
05-31 22:26:11	Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election?	No	BUY	197	99¢	$194	0xa00a6e…
05-31 22:20:42	Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election?	No	SELL	83	99¢	$83	0x3b2152…
05-31 22:18:06	Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election?	No	SELL	675	100¢	$672	0x6131ac…
05-31 22:17:59	Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election?	No	SELL	64	100¢	$63	0xef52f0…
05-31 22:17:33	Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election?	No	SELL	187	100¢	$186	0x74a997…
05-31 22:16:33	Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election?	No	SELL	238	100¢	$236	0xee94cc…
05-31 22:16:16	Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election?	No	SELL	379	100¢	$377	0x280094…
05-31 22:10:45	Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election?	No	BUY	83	99¢	$82	0x26e094…
05-31 22:05:44	Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election?	No	SELL	1,236	100¢	$1,230	0x76eac1…
05-31 22:03:40	Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election?	No	SELL	597	100¢	$594	0x907ec4…
05-31 22:00:03	Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election?	No	BUY	2,100	99¢	$2,073	0x629d0e…
05-31 21:42:05	Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election?	No	BUY	1,000	95¢	$950	0xe6c647…
05-31 21:39:34	Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election?	No	BUY	16	93¢	$15	0x303c6d…
05-31 21:30:44	Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election?	No	BUY	202	87¢	$176	0xb19de4…
05-31 21:19:22	Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election?	No	SELL	1,000	92¢	$915	0x55090a…
05-31 21:18:29	Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election?	No	SELL	1,194	83¢	$993	0x119d99…
05-31 21:18:27	Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election?	No	SELL	284	81¢	$230	0x6db899…
05-31 21:16:07	Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election?	No	SELL	964	88¢	$848	0xa5ddf2…
05-30 00:18:37	Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election?	No	BUY	915	84¢	$769	0x1b345d…
05-30 00:16:38	Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election?	No	BUY	7	84¢	$6	0x292da1…
05-29 21:30:14	Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election?	No	BUY	35	84¢	$30	0x6c42f0…
05-29 20:30:04	Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election?	No	BUY	43	84¢	$36	0xecd251…
05-29 20:21:17	Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election?	No	BUY	1,000	84¢	$840	0x7f26a4…
05-26 08:14:08	Will Polymarket mindshare hit 80% by June 30?	Yes	SELL	1,447	100¢	$1,442	0x8b92c5…
05-26 07:55:47	Will Polymarket mindshare hit 80% by June 30?	Yes	BUY	456	98¢	$449	0xf08afe…
05-26 06:20:30	Will Polymarket mindshare hit 80% by June 30?	Yes	BUY	500	98¢	$490	0x3e56f0…
05-26 06:14:41	Will Polymarket mindshare hit 80% by June 30?	Yes	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0xd2f5b1…
05-26 04:33:06	Will Polymarket mindshare hit 80% by June 30?	Yes	BUY	485	99¢	$482	0x72eb81…
05-22 13:40:31	Will there be at least 1950 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,066	100¢	$1,065	0xd67d82…
05-22 13:40:21	Will there be at least 1925 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	662	100¢	$661	0xb535ea…
05-22 13:40:14	Will there be at least 1925 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	100¢	$1	0x6af2d4…
05-22 13:34:17	Will there be at least 1950 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	98¢	$16	0x5e3abc…
05-19 02:04:14	Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election?	No	BUY	104	84¢	$87	0xac3fa2…
05-18 20:13:36	Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election?	No	BUY	154	84¢	$130	0x3ec93c…
05-18 04:22:40	Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election?	No	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0x40c25d…
05-18 03:33:19	Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election?	No	BUY	46	84¢	$39	0xcb4466…
05-18 01:49:07	Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election?	No	BUY	14	84¢	$12	0xb87bb9…
05-17 18:00:52	Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election?	No	BUY	10	84¢	$8	0xeb1eda…
05-16 02:32:50	Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election?	No	BUY	170	84¢	$143	0xa2f29b…
05-13 01:38:00	Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election?	No	BUY	485	87¢	$422	0x1ff595…
05-13 01:21:16	Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election?	No	BUY	15	87¢	$13	0x55ee96…
05-03 22:40:36	QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	Yes	BUY	4,580	100¢	$4,571	0xddf4c8…
04-30 20:04:02	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	No	BUY	4,500	100¢	$4,482	0x1eaf65…
04-28 20:19:00	Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	Yes	SELL	4,451	100¢	$4,437	0x2ac512…
04-28 20:17:54	Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0xe7b554…
04-28 20:17:26	Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0x513c29…
04-28 20:17:12	Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x1073da…
04-28 20:17:10	Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xbdf738…
04-28 20:17:10	Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x589597…
04-28 20:16:24	Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	Yes	SELL	35	100¢	$35	0xa02e9a…
04-28 20:11:14	Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	Yes	BUY	4,500	100¢	$4,486	0xc389a6…
03-17 02:38:57	Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election?	No	BUY	500	93¢	$465	0x3dcd31…
03-16 20:53:53	russia strike impacts kyiv municipality during week of march 2 2026	Yes	SELL	3,989	100¢	$3,985	0x626df8…
03-14 02:29:41	will iran strike israel on march 10	Yes	SELL	742	99¢	$736	0x7da291…
03-13 19:00:59	will iran strike israel on march 10	Yes	BUY	742	98¢	$723	0xcd78c3…
03-12 18:36:17	russia strike impacts kyiv municipality during week of march 2 2026	Yes	BUY	989	100¢	$986	0x756dc9…
03-12 18:33:51	russia strike impacts kyiv municipality during week of march 2 2026	Yes	BUY	3,000	100¢	$2,991	0xfd31a9…
03-10 20:40:03	will iran strike israel on march 6	No	BUY	1,028	100¢	$1,023	0x08571d…
03-10 20:39:45	will iran strike israel on march 6	No	BUY	250	100¢	$249	0x63a9a5…
03-10 20:39:37	will iran strike israel on march 6	No	BUY	1,278	100¢	$1,272	0xd78cae…
03-10 20:38:59	will iran strike israel on march 6	No	BUY	500	100¢	$498	0x9a64cf…
03-10 20:38:15	will iran strike israel on march 6	No	BUY	1,250	100¢	$1,245	0xa344e5…
03-05 18:51:13	will paradex launch a token on march 5	Yes	SELL	3,374	100¢	$3,371	0x596d13…
03-05 18:49:53	will paradex launch a token on march 5	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xaef2fd…
03-05 18:49:27	will paradex launch a token on march 5	Yes	SELL	1,110	100¢	$1,109	0x21ea8a…
03-05 18:04:23	will paradex launch a token on march 5	Yes	BUY	3,155	100¢	$3,146	0xc0dad2…
03-05 18:04:21	will paradex launch a token on march 5	Yes	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x907a77…
03-05 18:04:15	will paradex launch a token on march 5	Yes	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xa475df…
03-05 18:03:31	will trump say waste this week march 1	Yes	SELL	3,344	100¢	$3,341	0x720b00…
03-05 16:54:41	will paradex launch a token on march 5	Yes	BUY	198	51¢	$101	0xb14872…
03-05 16:51:33	will paradex launch a token on march 5	Yes	BUY	937	38¢	$351	0xd232e9…
03-05 16:47:01	will paradex launch a token on march 5	Yes	SELL	1,631	28¢	$457	0xbc54fe…
03-05 16:36:53	will paradex launch a token on march 5	Yes	BUY	697	29¢	$202	0xc41533…
03-05 16:36:53	will paradex launch a token on march 5	Yes	BUY	186	29¢	$54	0x315b00…
03-05 16:36:53	will paradex launch a token on march 5	Yes	BUY	697	29¢	$202	0x1bbd4a…
03-05 16:36:13	will paradex launch a token on march 5	Yes	BUY	50	26¢	$13	0xf39e08…
03-04 19:10:01	Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	No	BUY	471	100¢	$471	0x597594…
03-04 19:09:41	will trump say waste this week march 1	Yes	BUY	3,344	99¢	$3,324	0x26a30d…
03-04 18:43:41	us strikes iraq by february 28	Yes	SELL	3,799	100¢	$3,795	0x91c265…
03-03 22:03:21	us strikes iraq by february 28	Yes	BUY	45	99¢	$45	0x22d635…