Personal-Organizing — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$312

Unrealized P&L

-$9

Hit rate

59.9%

Resolved

2,074

Trades

5,096

lifetime

Volume

$15.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$61

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-10

last 10-29 12:59

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 52 days

Categories

Crypto

96% 35% -$306

Other

2% 50% -$11

Politics

1% — —

Tech

0% 100% +$4

Pop-Culture

0% 100% +$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

7 active days in 12wk • peak 168 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Trump meet with Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026?	No	+60	$34	75¢	$45	+$11	10-29 02:37
Will Trump meet with Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026?	Yes	+60	$25	25¢	$15	-$10	10-29 03:37
Will Ra'am win exactly 7 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	+19	$10	3¢	$1	-$10	10-27 23:13

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-29 22:30 UTC	1	$101	963	0	+963	Down	-$101	03-29 22:37
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	2	$65	50	50	+0	Up	+$32	05-17 22:34
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-18 14:45 UTC	14	$63	0	120	-120	Up	+$3	02-18 14:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	22	$60	55	55	+0	Down	+$2	05-07 02:24
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut in the top 5 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?	3	$59	40	40	+0	open	—	10-29 04:34
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	2	$59	39	39	+0	Down	+$17	05-16 14:49
Israel tourism plunges below 40K by January?	3	$59	40	40	+0	open	—	10-29 04:55
Will Trump meet with Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026?	6	$59	120	0	+120	open	—	10-29 03:37
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-20 09:55 UTC	2	$55	0	100	-100	Up	+$5	02-20 09:58
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-20 10:00 UTC	2	$54	0	100	-100	Down	+$4	02-20 10:10
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	24	$53	104	55	+49	Down	-$8	10-23 21:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	2	$52	35	35	+0	Down	+$16	05-16 11:23
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-20 08:00 UTC	4	$52	0	100	-100	Up	+$2	02-20 08:07
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-20 11:15 UTC	9	$52	0	100	-100	Up	+$2	02-20 11:16
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-20 11:20 UTC	4	$52	0	100	-100	Down	+$2	02-20 11:24
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-20 08:15 UTC	2	$52	0	100	-100	Down	+$2	02-20 08:17
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-19 20:15 UTC	2	$52	0	100	-100	Down	+$2	02-19 20:16
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-20 10:15 UTC	6	$51	0	100	-100	Up	+$2	02-20 10:24
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-19 19:00 UTC	4	$51	0	100	-100	Down	+$2	02-19 19:11
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-20 08:30 UTC	6	$51	0	100	-100	Down	+$2	02-20 08:35
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-20 10:30 UTC	7	$51	0	100	-100	Down	+$1	02-20 10:33
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-20 12:00 UTC	2	$50	0	100	-100	Up	+$0	02-20 12:03
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-20 15:30 UTC	2	$50	0	100	-100	Down	+$0	02-20 15:31
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-21 19:30 UTC	9	$49	50	50	+1	Up	-$1	01-21 19:32
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	18	$47	46	46	+0	Up	+$2	10-24 05:29
XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-18 07:00 UTC	4	$47	32	32	+0	Down	+$5	03-18 07:05
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	2	$46	33	33	+0	Down	+$12	05-15 18:06
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-20 15:15 UTC	2	$46	0	100	-100	Up	-$4	02-20 15:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	15	$43	35	35	+0	Up	$0	05-06 15:04
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-20 12:25 UTC	4	$43	0	50	-50	Down	-$7	02-20 12:27

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 12:59:34	Will The Democrats be in the next Israeli government?	No	SELL	8	74¢	$6	0x68a438…
10-29 12:58:13	Will The Democrats be in the next Israeli government?	No	BUY	8	79¢	$6	0xf7da8a…
10-29 09:48:44	Gemini Carbon released by November 11, 2026?	No	SELL	20	62¢	$12	0x56649b…
10-29 09:47:56	Gemini Carbon released by November 11, 2026?	No	BUY	20	68¢	$14	0xfd4c83…
10-29 08:30:32	Will Otzma Yehudit be in the next Israeli government?	Yes	SELL	20	15¢	$3	0xf0fc4f…
10-29 08:29:44	Will Otzma Yehudit be in the next Israeli government?	Yes	BUY	20	20¢	$4	0x0dc515…
10-29 06:58:01	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut in the top 20 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	20	78¢	$16	0xf2ed5b…
10-29 06:26:20	Will RZP-Zehut be in the next Israeli government?	Yes	SELL	20	29¢	$6	0xb5147e…
10-29 06:25:32	Will RZP-Zehut be in the next Israeli government?	Yes	BUY	20	38¢	$8	0xf2744a…
10-29 04:55:31	Israel tourism plunges below 40K by January?	No	SELL	40	73¢	$29	0x085844…
10-29 04:54:40	Israel tourism plunges below 40K by January?	No	BUY	20	75¢	$15	0x056a79…
10-29 04:54:38	Israel tourism plunges below 40K by January?	No	BUY	20	74¢	$15	0xa33dd7…
10-29 04:34:46	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut in the top 5 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	40	71¢	$28	0xb898ab…
10-29 04:24:28	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut in the top 5 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	78¢	$16	0xfe1bb1…
10-29 04:24:28	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut in the top 5 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	77¢	$15	0x8a0f3c…
10-29 03:37:53	Will Trump meet with Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	44¢	$9	0x7ca917…
10-29 02:44:14	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut in the top 20 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	18¢	$4	0xa7155c…
10-29 02:37:52	Will Trump meet with Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026?	No	BUY	20	57¢	$11	0x5d1af0…
10-29 00:58:46	Will Gemini Carbon debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 60% or higher?	No	SELL	20	16¢	$3	0x1e4af8…
10-29 00:57:56	Will Gemini Carbon debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 60% or higher?	No	BUY	20	18¢	$4	0x94a4ad…
10-29 00:28:31	Will Gemini Carbon debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 60% or higher?	No	BUY	20	21¢	$4	0x1a93c4…
10-29 00:25:07	Will Gemini Carbon debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 60% or higher?	Yes	BUY	20	82¢	$16	0x77f085…
10-29 00:05:59	Next Israeli government formed by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	20	37¢	$7	0x5b3192…
10-29 00:04:49	Next Israeli government formed by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	20	43¢	$9	0xb97c13…
10-28 23:50:13	Will Gemini Carbon debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 60% or higher?	No	SELL	20	15¢	$3	0xed85e2…
10-28 23:46:53	Will Gemini Carbon debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 60% or higher?	No	BUY	20	21¢	$4	0x32ee38…
10-28 22:06:13	Next Israeli government formed by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	40	26¢	$10	0xaf5d31…
10-28 22:01:38	Next Israeli government formed by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	20	33¢	$7	0xab173a…
10-28 22:01:37	Next Israeli government formed by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	20	33¢	$7	0x591f98…
10-28 20:41:05	Next Israeli government formed by February 28, 2027?	No	SELL	20	67¢	$13	0xd54bd4…
10-28 20:35:59	Next Israeli government formed by February 28, 2027?	No	BUY	20	78¢	$16	0x224e8e…
10-28 19:29:38	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $30M?	No	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0xe3f0ff…
10-28 19:06:16	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $30M?	Yes	BUY	20	67¢	$13	0xa182a4…
10-28 18:49:56	Will "You Seem Pretty Sad for a Girl So in Love - Olivia Rodrigo" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of November 7?	No	SELL	13	65¢	$9	0xaa7114…
10-28 18:49:07	Will "You Seem Pretty Sad for a Girl So in Love - Olivia Rodrigo" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of November 7?	No	BUY	20	70¢	$14	0xcee1cf…
10-28 16:47:25	Will Trump meet with Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	38¢	$8	0x81abcc…
10-28 15:51:35	Will Flávio Bolsonaro return to Brazil by March 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	17¢	$3	0xf951d1…
10-28 15:46:46	Will Flávio Bolsonaro return to Brazil by March 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	21¢	$4	0xdd01af…
10-28 10:05:31	Will News Corp (NWSA) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	20	43¢	$9	0xaa0b42…
10-28 10:05:31	Will News Corp (NWSA) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	20	43¢	$9	0xa812da…
10-28 07:45:46	Will Likud be in the next Israeli government?	No	SELL	10	47¢	$5	0xbcdc63…
10-28 07:44:58	Will Likud be in the next Israeli government?	No	BUY	20	58¢	$12	0x05ca4b…
10-28 07:11:16	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 5, 2026?	No	BUY	20	67¢	$13	0xa4d7f5…
10-28 05:51:31	Will Anthropic raise between $95B and $105B in its IPO?	Yes	SELL	20	18¢	$4	0x213ad8…
10-28 05:49:34	Will Anthropic raise between $95B and $105B in its IPO?	Yes	BUY	20	22¢	$4	0x671869…
10-28 03:40:10	Will Anthropic be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	80¢	$16	0x69459f…
10-28 02:23:17	Netanyahu out by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	41¢	$8	0x86b435…
10-28 02:20:05	Will Trump meet with Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026?	No	BUY	20	56¢	$11	0x8e8244…
10-28 02:15:05	Netanyahu out by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	46¢	$9	0xe68c9b…
10-28 01:41:03	Netanyahu out by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	54¢	$11	0x05ea37…
10-28 01:32:12	Will Reservists – New Economic Party win less than 2.75% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	BUY	20	59¢	$12	0xf0c194…
10-28 00:37:53	Will Trump meet with Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	42¢	$8	0x5f9211…
10-27 23:58:17	Netanyahu out by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	20	45¢	$9	0xf319a2…
10-27 23:57:24	Will Trump meet with Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026?	No	BUY	20	58¢	$12	0xbfd0fc…
10-27 23:13:41	Will Ra'am win exactly 7 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	19	56¢	$10	0xa83f4e…
10-27 21:41:42	No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the December 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	20	29¢	$6	0x9cf9bf…
10-27 21:33:51	No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	20	35¢	$7	0xf9f24f…
10-24 05:48:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	Down	SELL	5	52¢	$3	0x6f69a9…
10-24 05:48:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	Down	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0x3155e8…
10-24 05:48:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	Down	SELL	5	50¢	$2	0x8cf4df…
10-24 05:48:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	Down	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0x772560…
10-24 05:47:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	Down	SELL	6	20¢	$1	0x48a44b…
10-24 05:47:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	Down	BUY	6	19¢	$1	0xa4b800…
10-24 05:46:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	Up	SELL	5	75¢	$4	0x03f114…
10-24 05:45:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	Up	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0x530dba…
10-24 05:44:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Down	SELL	6	2¢	$0	0xc3f559…
10-24 05:44:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Down	BUY	6	19¢	$1	0x9f3e07…
10-24 05:39:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	Up	SELL	5	7¢	$0	0x8e064f…
10-24 05:39:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	Up	SELL	5	9¢	$0	0x9a139c…
10-24 05:39:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	Up	SELL	5	9¢	$0	0x1d36a6…
10-24 05:39:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	Up	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x3db235…
10-24 05:39:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	Up	BUY	5	24¢	$1	0x1af4c3…
10-24 05:38:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	Up	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0x9bab1e…
10-24 05:34:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	Down	SELL	10	1¢	$0	0x9c836b…
10-24 05:34:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	Down	SELL	11	3¢	$0	0x172f22…
10-24 05:34:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	Down	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xbe11f7…
10-24 05:34:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	Down	BUY	11	10¢	$1	0x39bbca…
10-24 05:34:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	Down	SELL	5	47¢	$2	0x718e94…
10-24 05:34:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	Up	SELL	6	55¢	$3	0x6272ba…
10-24 05:34:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	Down	BUY	5	69¢	$3	0x66b9e1…
10-24 05:34:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	Up	BUY	6	53¢	$3	0x084479…
10-24 05:33:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	Up	SELL	5	62¢	$3	0x70229c…
10-24 05:33:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	Up	BUY	5	70¢	$4	0xd56f65…
10-24 05:29:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Up	SELL	5	74¢	$4	0x9a6cd8…
10-24 05:29:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Down	SELL	5	26¢	$1	0xc95251…
10-24 05:28:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	69¢	$4	0x83c292…
10-24 05:28:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Down	SELL	5	32¢	$2	0x36819c…
10-24 05:28:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Down	SELL	5	80¢	$4	0xf445bb…
10-24 05:28:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0xc8b45e…
10-24 05:28:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Down	SELL	5	79¢	$4	0x372442…
10-24 05:28:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Down	SELL	5	50¢	$2	0x30d12f…
10-24 05:28:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0x86cdd0…
10-24 05:28:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0xc1b43b…
10-24 05:28:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0x8118a9…
10-24 05:28:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0x47061b…
10-24 05:27:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Down	SELL	5	61¢	$3	0xc60da6…
10-24 05:27:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Down	SELL	5	42¢	$2	0xd302cd…
10-24 05:27:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0xd327ee…
10-24 05:27:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x797c18…
10-24 05:27:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Down	SELL	5	42¢	$2	0x2c9b67…