Warm-Raiment — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$23.5K

Unrealized P&L

+$1.98K

Hit rate

54.7%

Resolved

25,574

Trades

195,388

lifetime

Volume

$3.05M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$16

Open exposure

$13.5K

1 position

First seen

2026-03-01

last 10-15 18:51

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 196 days

Categories

Other

50% 61% -$29,037

Sports

49% 49% +$5,894

Tech

0% 0% -$1,638

Politics

0% 83% +$1,048

Crypto

0% 62% +$236

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

56 active days in 12wk • peak 5268 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes		+53,127	$11,571	26¢	$13.5K	+$1,976	10-13 15:48

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves	17	$12.1K	9,072	9,072	+0	Atlanta Braves	+$2,416	08-28 01:29
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	91	$11.6K	53,127	0	+53,127	open	—	10-13 15:48
fifwc esp cvi 2026 06 15 spread home 2pt5	85	$11.2K	20,017	0	+20,017	Cabo Verde	-$9,920	06-15 17:10
Chicago Cubs vs. Seattle Mariners	9	$10.7K	7,467	6,087	+1,381	Chicago Cubs	+$326	08-23 22:16
atp fomin zhukov 2026 08 10	58	$9.8K	12,655	9,345	+3,309	Sergey Fomin	-$1,222	08-11 11:57
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	21	$9.5K	10,640	10,640	+0	No	-$732	06-11 00:00
Athletics vs. Houston Astros	23	$7.9K	6,365	6,357	+8	Athletics	-$897	08-23 21:26
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves	38	$7.8K	9,425	6,375	+3,050	Atlanta Braves	+$1,320	08-27 02:20
mlb cws bos 2026 08 05	49	$7.8K	9,656	3,326	+6,330	Boston Red Sox	+$3,487	08-06 01:07
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants	19	$7.1K	11,050	3,147	+7,904	San Francisco Giants	+$4,090	08-28 03:06
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	1	$6.9K	8,888	0	+8,888	Yes	+$1,973	07-28 18:58
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	70	$6.8K	13,418	1,524	+11,894	No	+$7,617	06-15 22:12
wta kostyuk swiatek 2026 08 09	170	$6.5K	6,771	5,981	+791	Iga Swiatek	+$1,001	08-08 18:50
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	34	$6.4K	7,140	7,140	+0	Yes	-$1,277	05-19 11:21
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5	29	$6.0K	10,621	0	+10,621	Under	-$5,882	06-15 16:16
Chicago Cubs vs. Arizona Diamondbacks	15	$5.6K	8,376	788	+7,588	Arizona Diamondbacks	+$2,730	08-26 21:18
Baltimore Orioles vs. Colorado Rockies	85	$5.6K	6,883	2,827	+4,057	Colorado Rockies	+$1,255	09-02 22:40
Will Scotland be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?	47	$5.6K	9,401	4,401	+5,000	Yes	-$96	06-26 00:28
Knicks vs. Cavaliers	152	$5.6K	8,912	8,912	-0	Knicks	-$4,385	05-24 02:24
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	146	$5.5K	8,856	2,259	+6,597	Yes	+$1,723	06-14 02:50
mlb bal col 2026 08 31	56	$5.4K	6,101	4,981	+1,120	Baltimore Orioles	+$165	09-01 04:47
atp minaur tsitsip 2026 07 27	166	$5.4K	6,625	3,869	+2,756	Alex de Minaur	-$764	07-29 19:20
Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationals	17	$5.3K	7,448	515	+6,933	Washington Nationals	+$1,883	08-27 18:35
wta fernand eala 2026 07 29	134	$5.2K	7,148	4,060	+3,088	Alexandra Eala	-$762	07-29 17:02
Cincinnati Reds vs. Los Angeles Dodgers	61	$5.0K	4,622	4,356	+267	Los Angeles Dodgers	+$265	09-08 03:25
mlb cws min 2026 08 29	13	$4.9K	5,356	3,833	+1,523	Chicago White Sox	+$1,162	08-29 20:19
atp moeller mackenz 2026 07 29	124	$4.8K	5,196	4,641	+556	Jamie Mackenzie	+$149	07-29 14:47
Madrid Open, Qualification: Sloane Stephens vs Anhelina Kalinina	72	$4.8K	2,736	3,098	-362	Anhelina Kalinina	-$466	04-21 18:25
Houston Astros vs. Philadelphia Phillies	69	$4.7K	4,907	4,437	+469	Houston Astros	+$187	09-10 19:36
Thunder vs. Spurs	345	$4.7K	8,628	0	+8,628	Thunder	-$4,659	05-22 23:42

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-15 18:51:05	Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-10-15?	No	BUY	505	17¢	$86	0x4bfec3…
10-13 15:48:40	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,295	22¢	$285	0x6e7c76…
10-13 15:47:07	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xc93f8c…
10-13 15:45:34	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	293	22¢	$65	0xcecd6c…
10-13 15:45:30	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	22¢	$22	0xb19937…
10-13 15:45:30	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	22¢	$22	0x3ee1e4…
10-13 15:45:28	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	518	22¢	$114	0x82e26c…
10-13 15:45:28	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	642	22¢	$141	0x0ca573…
10-13 15:45:27	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	218	22¢	$48	0x59cdc6…
10-13 15:45:27	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	145	22¢	$32	0x0e7398…
10-12 16:16:59	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	281	22¢	$62	0x693a9e…
10-12 16:16:45	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	312	22¢	$69	0x59cad0…
10-12 16:02:59	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	312	22¢	$69	0xd1c580…
10-12 16:02:44	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	312	22¢	$69	0x20f1c7…
10-12 16:02:30	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	312	22¢	$69	0xd01327…
10-12 16:02:14	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	312	22¢	$69	0x228691…
10-12 16:01:59	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	312	22¢	$69	0xac3045…
10-12 16:01:45	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	312	22¢	$69	0x67d3dc…
10-12 15:43:29	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	312	22¢	$69	0xe4bd97…
10-12 15:43:14	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	312	22¢	$69	0xdae737…
10-12 15:42:59	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	312	22¢	$69	0xcee1f6…
10-12 15:42:45	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	312	22¢	$69	0x656c98…
10-12 15:42:30	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	312	22¢	$69	0x10fc0f…
10-12 15:42:14	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	312	22¢	$69	0x8b62ca…
10-12 15:41:59	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	312	22¢	$69	0x335688…
10-12 15:41:45	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	312	22¢	$69	0x17c6ba…
10-12 15:31:24	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	22¢	$0	0x919de6…
10-12 15:29:30	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	312	22¢	$69	0x430fa2…
10-12 15:24:56	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2,197	22¢	$483	0xd3da4f…
10-12 15:24:56	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,815	22¢	$399	0xc0feac…
10-12 14:29:03	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	320	22¢	$70	0xaca39f…
10-12 13:28:45	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	320	22¢	$70	0x1443cb…
10-12 13:15:35	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	10	22¢	$2	0x48c27b…
10-12 12:24:11	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	22¢	$0	0x86c6ff…
10-12 12:20:47	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	25	22¢	$6	0xfadc87…
10-12 12:19:39	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	388	22¢	$85	0x9079b3…
10-12 12:19:39	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	418	22¢	$92	0x41ddf5…
10-12 12:19:38	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,500	22¢	$330	0xe24519…
10-12 12:19:38	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	22¢	$4	0xcf4ad2…
10-12 12:19:38	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	549	22¢	$121	0xbf2fdc…
10-12 12:19:38	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	49	22¢	$11	0xbb41c6…
10-12 12:19:38	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	160	22¢	$35	0xa6c26d…
10-12 12:19:38	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	500	22¢	$110	0x6bd664…
10-12 12:19:38	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	51	22¢	$11	0x652a68…
10-12 12:19:38	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	82	22¢	$18	0x648ff4…
10-12 12:19:38	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2,512	22¢	$553	0x2b5c9d…
10-12 12:19:38	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,064	22¢	$234	0x1c68b0…
10-12 12:19:36	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	238	22¢	$52	0xf7d3c6…
10-12 12:19:36	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	86	22¢	$19	0xe02210…
10-12 12:19:36	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	250	22¢	$55	0xd39f7e…
10-12 12:19:36	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	620	22¢	$136	0xd159cb…
10-12 12:19:36	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	180	22¢	$40	0xa3b5d3…
10-12 12:19:36	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	69	22¢	$15	0x9c35fe…
10-12 12:19:36	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	167	22¢	$37	0x95a3b9…
10-12 12:19:36	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	259	22¢	$57	0x8c6b98…
10-12 12:19:36	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	253	22¢	$56	0x7dd7ac…
10-12 12:19:36	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	254	22¢	$56	0x787a24…
10-12 12:19:36	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	25	22¢	$6	0x3a8cb6…
10-12 12:19:36	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	263	22¢	$58	0x151357…
10-12 12:19:36	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	79	22¢	$17	0x071ed2…
10-10 23:59:39	Syracuse vs. Virginia	Virginia	BUY	47	83¢	$39	0xfcb73a…
10-10 23:36:57	Syracuse vs. Virginia	Virginia	BUY	147	83¢	$122	0x16585d…
10-10 23:33:34	Spread: Virginia (-13.5)	Virginia	BUY	1,388	55¢	$763	0x84b9fe…
10-10 23:31:22	Syracuse vs. Virginia	Virginia	BUY	1,594	83¢	$1,323	0xcb7f83…
10-10 11:35:22	Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-10-10?	No	BUY	1,288	34¢	$438	0x4f3378…
10-10 10:58:16	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	32	22¢	$7	0xe2ab24…
10-09 11:35:57	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	22	22¢	$5	0x8cec94…
10-09 09:21:27	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	10	22¢	$2	0x9c28e6…
10-09 09:01:04	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	281	22¢	$62	0xee5959…
10-09 08:32:01	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	60	22¢	$13	0x8d131c…
10-09 08:08:10	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	23	22¢	$5	0x7c07e1…
10-08 08:33:46	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	400	21¢	$84	0x81d2d3…
10-08 08:33:40	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	250	21¢	$52	0xa1302d…
10-08 08:33:31	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,194	21¢	$251	0xc5a7c9…
10-08 08:33:29	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	74	21¢	$16	0x549b42…
10-08 08:33:29	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,194	21¢	$251	0x3acf8a…
10-08 08:33:28	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	215	21¢	$45	0x8ac05c…
10-08 08:33:28	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	21¢	$10	0x01d7d9…
10-07 03:35:02	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	6	22¢	$1	0x220ce7…
10-06 23:27:37	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	7	22¢	$2	0x7666c5…
10-06 20:30:51	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	7	22¢	$2	0xc55880…
10-06 20:06:03	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	263	22¢	$58	0x3f1e1c…
10-06 19:35:18	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	0	22¢	$0	0xf17fe9…
10-06 19:20:33	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	0	22¢	$0	0x77028f…
10-06 17:17:05	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2	22¢	$0	0xe2b878…
10-06 17:17:03	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	22¢	$11	0xb25aca…
10-06 17:17:03	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	166	22¢	$37	0x0ff8d9…
10-06 15:17:11	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	6	22¢	$1	0x56aa3d…
10-06 15:16:59	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	204	22¢	$45	0x1affac…
10-06 15:15:05	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	7	22¢	$2	0xc433a9…
10-06 08:28:19	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	4	22¢	$1	0x4a1060…
10-05 23:25:32	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	12	22¢	$3	0xa0aeb6…
10-04 20:44:31	Broncos vs. 49ers	Broncos	BUY	2,088	41¢	$856	0xfa9078…
10-04 19:12:05	Spread: Chiefs (-4.5)	Chiefs	BUY	2,088	52¢	$1,086	0xc7888b…
10-04 11:57:19	Spread: Bengals (-2.5)	Bengals	BUY	135	52¢	$70	0x04822a…
10-04 11:57:17	Spread: Bengals (-2.5)	Bengals	BUY	1,153	52¢	$600	0x8e9ccb…
10-04 11:42:17	Patriots vs. Bills	Bills	BUY	1,788	74¢	$1,323	0xe45dea…
10-04 11:35:58	Colts vs. Commanders: O/U 46.5	Under	BUY	1,088	50¢	$544	0x660c1a…
10-04 11:35:37	Cardinals vs. Giants: O/U 44.5	Under	BUY	1,088	51¢	$555	0x5cd061…
10-04 11:35:11	Patriots vs. Bills: O/U 50.5	Under	BUY	218	53¢	$116	0xad27a3…