Serpentine-Fire — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$45

Unrealized P&L

+$28

Hit rate

69.8%

Resolved

Trades

588

lifetime

Volume

$95.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$162

Open exposure

$790

5 positions

First seen

2026-01-08

last 07-23 16:31

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Crypto

65% — —

Other

25% 100% +$4

Sports

8% 33% $-49

Politics

2% — —

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

23 active days in 12wk • peak 6 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?	No	+576	$465	86¢	$492	+$27	07-23 16:31
Modi out by December 31, 2026?	No	+110	$100	92¢	$101	+$1	06-14 04:07
Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027?	No	+106	$100	94¢	$101	+$1	06-02 07:51
US recession by end of 2026?	No	+100	$90	90¢	$90	$-0	06-26 09:45
Will Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026?	No	+10	$7	70¢	$7	$-0	07-18 09:10

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will sofi technologies sofi be added to the sp 500 by march 31 2026	3	$9.3K	5,023	4,350	+673	open	—	03-09 11:18
eth updown 15m 1768682700	4	$2.5K	2,551	0	+2,551	open	—	01-17 20:59
btc updown 15m 1768689000	1	$2.0K	2,021	0	+2,021	open	—	01-17 22:44
btc updown 15m 1768690800	1	$2.0K	2,044	0	+2,044	open	—	01-17 23:14
eth updown 15m 1768688100	2	$2.0K	2,025	0	+2,025	open	—	01-17 22:29
eth updown 15m 1768698000	14	$2.0K	2,000	0	+2,000	open	—	01-18 01:14
eth updown 15m 1768691700	1	$2.0K	2,000	0	+2,000	open	—	01-17 23:29
btc updown 15m 1768689900	1	$2.0K	2,000	0	+2,000	open	—	01-17 22:59
eth updown 15m 1768698900	1	$2.0K	2,000	0	+2,000	open	—	01-18 01:29
btc updown 15m 1768693500	1	$1.9K	2,000	0	+2,000	open	—	01-17 23:59
fed rate cut by march 2026 meeting	4	$1.9K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	03-06 18:27
btc updown 15m 1768695300	14	$1.7K	1,802	0	+1,802	open	—	01-18 00:29
googl quarterly earnings gaap eps 02 04 2026 2pt64	3	$1.6K	1,609	0	+1,609	open	—	02-04 21:02
bitcoin up or down january 17 4am et	13	$1.5K	1,534	0	+1,534	open	—	01-17 10:00
eth updown 15m 1768687200	2	$1.5K	1,479	0	+1,479	open	—	01-17 22:14
eth updown 15m 1768711500	1	$1.3K	1,328	0	+1,328	open	—	01-18 04:59
btc updown 15m 1768642200	3	$1.3K	1,332	0	+1,332	open	—	01-17 09:44
btc updown 15m 1770191100	2	$1.3K	1,302	0	+1,302	open	—	02-04 08:00
btc updown 15m 1768686300	3	$1.1K	1,116	0	+1,116	open	—	01-17 21:59
pltr quarterly earnings nongaap eps 02 02 2026 0pt23	14	$1.0K	1,100	0	+1,100	open	—	02-02 18:51
btc updown 15m 1768713300	1	$1000	1,020	0	+1,020	open	—	01-18 05:29
btc updown 15m 1768723200	2	$1000	1,043	0	+1,043	open	—	01-18 08:14
eth updown 15m 1768707900	1	$1000	1,059	0	+1,059	open	—	01-18 04:00
btc updown 15m 1768641300	3	$1000	1,022	0	+1,022	open	—	01-17 09:29
xrp updown 15m 1768778100	1	$999	1,000	0	+1,000	open	—	01-18 23:30
eth updown 15m 1768704300	5	$990	1,000	0	+1,000	open	—	01-18 02:59
btc updown 15m 1768714200	14	$990	1,000	0	+1,000	open	—	01-18 05:46
amzn quarterly earnings gaap eps 02 05 2026 1pt95	8	$946	1,000	0	+1,000	open	—	02-05 16:37
will the bank of new zealand make no change to the official cash rate after the april decision	21	$940	500	500	+0	open	—	03-24 17:36
eth updown 15m 1768710600	3	$900	920	0	+920	open	—	01-18 04:45

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-23 16:31:10	Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?	No	BUY	8	85¢	$7	0x48f3a1…
07-23 16:31:09	Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?	No	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0x4d45f9…
07-23 03:06:09	Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?	No	BUY	12	85¢	$10	0x9ea7a5…
07-23 01:29:01	Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?	No	BUY	19	85¢	$16	0xa02218…
07-19 18:52:04	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	14	69¢	$10	0x9d713a…
07-18 09:10:21	Will Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026?	No	BUY	10	70¢	$7	0xe8283c…
07-03 15:22:55	Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?	No	BUY	2	86¢	$2	0x0725ce…
07-03 14:13:05	Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?	No	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0xa9419a…
07-03 14:13:05	Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?	No	BUY	9	86¢	$8	0x40fea5…
07-03 13:56:34	Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?	No	BUY	10	86¢	$9	0x660e6d…
07-03 10:36:16	Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?	No	BUY	10	86¢	$9	0x79290e…
07-03 09:56:19	Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?	No	BUY	20	86¢	$17	0x263eda…
07-02 10:44:44	Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?	No	BUY	9	86¢	$8	0x527306…
07-02 09:16:13	Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?	No	BUY	34	86¢	$29	0x4c0e2b…
07-02 08:10:22	btc updown 15m 1782979200	Down	BUY	425	4¢	$17	0x6a8357…
07-02 08:10:22	btc updown 15m 1782979200	Down	BUY	5,945	1¢	$83	0x40ea07…
06-26 09:45:31	US recession by end of 2026?	No	BUY	100	90¢	$90	0xfe11c4…
06-17 01:15:20	will wti crude oil wti hit low 75 in june 987	Yes	SELL	10	88¢	$9	0x3b0416…
06-15 04:51:19	ufc jus3 ili1 2026 06 14	Ilia Topuria	BUY	22	92¢	$20	0x9bd078…
06-15 04:48:07	ufc jus3 ili1 2026 06 14	Ilia Topuria	BUY	14	72¢	$10	0x2264a4…
06-15 01:13:01	ufc der jos52 2026 06 14	Josh Hokit	BUY	12	80¢	$10	0x6164c9…
06-14 23:59:03	ufc jus3 ili1 2026 06 14	Ilia Topuria	BUY	25	80¢	$20	0xb0d0aa…
06-14 23:52:13	ufc ste6 die4 2026 06 14	Diego Lopes	BUY	33	60¢	$20	0x5ee1c7…
06-14 04:07:36	Modi out by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	110	91¢	$100	0xdd1d77…
06-14 04:05:28	will wti crude oil wti hit low 75 in june 987	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x7ccf25…
06-14 02:29:51	nba nyk sas 2026 06 13 total 197pt5	Over	SELL	57	13¢	$7	0xdb693b…
06-14 00:39:31	nba nyk sas 2026 06 13 total 197pt5	Over	BUY	57	88¢	$50	0xffbcae…
06-11 00:28:45	nba sas nyk 2026 06 10	Spurs	BUY	22	46¢	$10	0x470713…
06-09 00:32:01	nba sas nyk 2026 06 08	Spurs	BUY	106	47¢	$50	0x6125fe…
06-08 22:06:21	nba sas nyk 2026 06 08	Spurs	BUY	106	47¢	$50	0x689a68…
06-08 21:41:00	nba sas nyk 2026 06 08 total 196pt5	Over	BUY	54	92¢	$50	0xe8a100…
06-05 04:46:15	nba nyk sas 2026 06 05 total 194pt5	Over	BUY	55	91¢	$50	0x34c60a…
06-04 08:46:21	Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?	No	BUY	161	80¢	$129	0xde7f6a…
06-04 00:42:54	nba nyk sas 2026 06 03 total 199pt5	Over	BUY	57	88¢	$50	0x1a087b…
06-03 18:35:07	Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 200.5	Over	BUY	34	88¢	$30	0x198e45…
06-02 07:51:13	Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027?	No	BUY	106	94¢	$100	0xcd6b19…
06-02 07:51:01	Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?	No	BUY	256	78¢	$200	0xbe9797…
06-02 07:16:04	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?	Yes	BUY	132	76¢	$100	0x1611e0…
05-31 00:26:16	Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 204.5	Over	BUY	68	74¢	$50	0x137952…
05-24 18:38:31	Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 210.5	Over	BUY	42	72¢	$30	0xdbbc79…
05-19 00:06:08	Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 210.5	Over	BUY	13	75¢	$10	0x3660ba…
05-16 09:42:48	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	110	95¢	$105	0x95f9f0…
05-10 04:39:10	UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)	Khamzat Chimaev	BUY	12	81¢	$10	0x86317a…
05-10 04:30:49	UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)	Khamzat Chimaev	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x34ba24…
05-10 03:07:17	UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)	Khamzat Chimaev	BUY	12	81¢	$10	0x86b33c…
05-08 21:21:39	Knicks vs. 76ers	76ers	BUY	34	58¢	$20	0x619c68…
05-08 02:10:17	Lakers vs. Thunder	Thunder	BUY	21	94¢	$20	0xe44eea…
05-03 13:27:28	Will Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0x7b3c7c…
05-03 09:11:42	Will Palantir (PLTR) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	104	96¢	$100	0x878cb8…
05-03 09:05:04	Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Punjab Kings	Punjab Kings	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0xbef1bb…
04-25 09:42:34	Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Punjab Kings	Punjab Kings	BUY	18	57¢	$10	0x4a8413…
04-14 03:17:33	will trump praise allah again by april 15 423	No	BUY	10	94¢	$9	0xfcbc9b…
03-25 18:52:49	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	11	97¢	$11	0xfa5b3b…
03-25 18:52:49	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	187	97¢	$182	0x136204…
03-25 18:50:39	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	38	95¢	$36	0xc72de5…
03-25 18:50:37	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	62	95¢	$59	0x9defbe…
03-25 18:45:07	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x992699…
03-24 18:08:41	will the bank of new zealand increase the official cash rate after the april decision	No	SELL	40	94¢	$38	0xf81829…
03-24 17:36:21	will the bank of new zealand increase the official cash rate after the april decision	No	SELL	329	94¢	$310	0x3fe732…
03-24 17:36:21	will the bank of new zealand make no change to the official cash rate after the april decision	Yes	SELL	500	94¢	$470	0x240729…
03-24 01:13:39	will the bank of new zealand increase the official cash rate after the april decision	No	SELL	31	94¢	$29	0x9dc7fb…
03-21 08:14:05	btc updown 15m 1774080000	Up	BUY	12	80¢	$10	0x911bf2…
03-20 23:17:25	nba gsw det 2026 03 20	Pistons	BUY	22	68¢	$15	0xa6349b…
03-20 14:45:31	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	95¢	$95	0x769423…
03-20 00:31:31	nba phx sas 2026 03 19	Spurs	BUY	26	78¢	$20	0x0ab3bf…
03-19 22:52:59	nba det was 2026 03 19	Pistons	BUY	22	90¢	$20	0xedd52e…
03-18 23:47:01	nba gsw bos 2026 03 18	Celtics	BUY	319	94¢	$300	0x72353b…
03-18 21:17:01	nba gsw bos 2026 03 18	Celtics	BUY	100	84¢	$84	0x7336a5…
03-17 03:37:25	nba lal hou 2026 03 16	Lakers	SELL	59	70¢	$41	0xc1c3b0…
03-17 00:54:27	nba lal hou 2026 03 16	Lakers	BUY	59	51¢	$30	0x5389f0…
03-16 06:54:53	btc updown 5m 1773643800	Up	BUY	15	67¢	$10	0x9d7637…
03-12 23:43:13	nba phx ind 2026 03 12	Pacers	BUY	21	24¢	$5	0x609dea…
03-12 23:42:43	nba phx ind 2026 03 12	Pacers	BUY	22	23¢	$5	0x602885…
03-10 23:40:49	nba mem phi 2026 03 10	76ers	SELL	192	62¢	$119	0x24b78a…
03-10 23:24:33	nba mem phi 2026 03 10	76ers	BUY	192	52¢	$100	0x8c53a7…
03-10 09:46:43	will the bank of new zealand make no change to the official cash rate after the april decision	Yes	BUY	139	94¢	$131	0x287a53…
03-09 13:57:21	will the bank of new zealand make no change to the official cash rate after the april decision	Yes	BUY	20	94¢	$19	0xe44fcf…
03-09 13:57:21	will the bank of new zealand make no change to the official cash rate after the april decision	Yes	BUY	22	94¢	$20	0x5b4276…
03-09 13:46:05	will the bank of new zealand make no change to the official cash rate after the april decision	Yes	BUY	14	94¢	$13	0x8e6525…
03-09 13:24:31	will the bank of new zealand make no change to the official cash rate after the april decision	Yes	BUY	11	94¢	$11	0x2633fc…
03-09 12:49:55	will the bank of new zealand make no change to the official cash rate after the april decision	Yes	BUY	16	94¢	$15	0xac0156…
03-09 12:18:53	will the bank of new zealand make no change to the official cash rate after the april decision	Yes	BUY	8	94¢	$8	0xb85923…
03-09 12:11:23	will the bank of new zealand make no change to the official cash rate after the april decision	Yes	BUY	0	94¢	$0	0xde6761…
03-09 12:07:23	will the bank of new zealand make no change to the official cash rate after the april decision	Yes	BUY	8	94¢	$8	0x881765…
03-09 11:27:51	will the bank of new zealand make no change to the official cash rate after the april decision	Yes	BUY	9	94¢	$9	0xe28af3…
03-09 11:25:51	will the bank of new zealand make no change to the official cash rate after the april decision	Yes	BUY	7	94¢	$7	0xedb526…
03-09 11:18:41	will sofi technologies sofi be added to the sp 500 by march 31 2026	No	SELL	1,839	99¢	$1,828	0xb01338…
03-09 11:02:43	will the bank of new zealand make no change to the official cash rate after the april decision	Yes	BUY	16	94¢	$15	0x6d192c…
03-09 10:58:17	will the bank of new zealand make no change to the official cash rate after the april decision	Yes	BUY	12	94¢	$11	0xbb3c8e…
03-09 10:54:47	will the bank of new zealand make no change to the official cash rate after the april decision	Yes	BUY	12	94¢	$11	0xd892b7…
03-09 09:43:59	will the bank of new zealand make no change to the official cash rate after the april decision	Yes	BUY	33	94¢	$31	0xb44897…
03-09 05:00:33	will the bank of new zealand increase the official cash rate after the april decision	No	BUY	26	94¢	$25	0xee7715…
03-07 03:40:39	will sofi technologies sofi be added to the sp 500 by march 31 2026	No	SELL	2,512	98¢	$2,463	0xddf2fd…
03-07 03:29:55	will sofi technologies sofi be added to the sp 500 by march 31 2026	No	BUY	5,023	100¢	$5,000	0x38fa6f…
03-06 18:27:15	fed rate cut by march 2026 meeting	No	SELL	1,000	98¢	$976	0x0307a8…
03-05 20:30:59	will the bank of new zealand increase the official cash rate after the april decision	No	BUY	141	94¢	$133	0xa61218…
03-05 17:11:37	will the bank of new zealand make no change to the official cash rate after the april decision	Yes	BUY	10	94¢	$9	0xb1e8a6…
03-05 17:10:43	will the bank of new zealand make no change to the official cash rate after the april decision	Yes	BUY	42	94¢	$39	0x79e649…
03-03 15:35:53	will the bank of new zealand make no change to the official cash rate after the april decision	Yes	BUY	4	94¢	$3	0x09ad7d…
03-03 09:06:09	will the bank of new zealand increase the official cash rate after the april decision	No	BUY	232	94¢	$218	0xcb6461…