Fickle-Creche — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$18

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

99.2%

Resolved

304

Trades

305

lifetime

Volume

$3.37K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$11

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-06

last 10-27 15:56

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 223 days

Categories

Other

94% 100% +$6

Politics

6% 90% -$23

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

77 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	1	$26	27	+27	No	-$26	05-15 05:05
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on May 2?	1	$25	25	+25	Yes	+$0	05-02 15:05
Trump out as President by April 30?	1	$25	25	+25	No	+$0	04-30 08:53
Will Trump visit China by June 30?	1	$25	26	+26	Yes	+$1	05-03 03:37
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on April 29?	1	$25	25	+25	Yes	+$0	04-29 13:03
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 28?	1	$25	25	+25	Yes	+$0	04-28 08:42
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on April 27?	1	$25	25	+25	Yes	+$0	04-28 01:48
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 16°C on April 27?	1	$25	25	+25	Yes	+$0	04-27 14:17
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 52-53°F on April 26?	1	$25	25	+25	Yes	+$0	04-27 02:10
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C on April 26?	1	$25	25	+25	Yes	+$0	04-26 09:21
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on April 25?	1	$25	25	+25	Yes	+$0	04-25 15:16
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 24th?	1	$25	25	+25	No	+$0	04-24 09:09
highest temperature in tokyo on april 23 2026 19c	1	$25	25	+25	Yes	+$0	04-23 07:32
highest temperature in jakarta on april 22 2026 35c	1	$25	25	+25	Yes	+$0	04-22 10:20
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 21st	1	$24	25	+25	No	+$1	04-21 12:45
highest temperature in los angeles on april 20 2026 72 73f	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	04-21 01:29
highest temperature in tel aviv on april 20 2026 24c	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	04-20 16:54
highest temperature in wellington on april 20 2026 16c	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	04-20 06:22
highest temperature in lucknow on april 19 2026 42c	1	$24	24	+24	Yes	+$0	04-19 16:10
highest temperature in wellington on april 19 2026 16c	1	$24	24	+24	Yes	+$0	04-19 08:47
highest temperature in busan on april 18 2026 25corhigher	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	04-18 08:14
highest temperature in moscow on april 17 2026 12c	1	$24	24	+24	Yes	+$0	04-17 15:55
highest temperature in wellington on april 17 2026 18c	1	$24	24	+24	Yes	+$0	04-17 09:41
highest temperature in ankara on april 16 2026 21c	1	$24	24	+24	Yes	+$0	04-16 15:57
highest temperature in wellington on april 16 2026 18c	1	$23	24	+24	Yes	+$0	04-16 07:43
highest temperature in istanbul on april 15 2026 12c	1	$23	24	+24	Yes	+$0	04-15 18:06
highest temperature in tokyo on april 15 2026 23c	1	$23	23	+23	No	+$0	04-15 09:10
highest temperature in dallas on april 14 2026 82forhigher	1	$23	23	+23	No	+$0	04-15 03:51
highest temperature in jeddah on april 14 2026 32c	1	$23	23	+23	Yes	+$0	04-14 16:25
highest temperature in wellington on april 14 2026 20c	1	$23	23	+23	No	+$0	04-14 05:40

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 15:56:54	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x458847…
10-27 07:50:48	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 16°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xe220fa…
10-26 04:05:03	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 11°C on October 26?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x8cee38…
10-24 06:44:51	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 17°C on October 24?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xc62c61…
10-22 09:45:56	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 13°C on October 22?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x1ace99…
10-20 04:32:26	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on October 20?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x33ad00…
10-19 06:22:26	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on October 19?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xefb8d0…
10-18 05:41:45	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 24°C on October 18?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x31b60c…
10-17 07:16:36	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on October 17?	Yes	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xa0cd3d…
10-16 04:31:03	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 88-89°F on October 15?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xe1a353…
10-15 05:38:01	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on October 15?	Yes	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x4d3fb2…
10-14 06:47:13	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on October 14?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x9961e4…
10-13 13:26:38	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C on October 13?	Yes	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x6f3b17…
10-13 01:05:23	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on October 12?	Yes	BUY	9	98¢	$9	0x2c3372…
10-12 01:06:27	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on October 12?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x8fc147…
10-11 01:06:05	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C or below on October 11?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x58a3ec…
10-08 04:44:17	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on October 8?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xdff941…
10-07 08:46:32	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on October 7?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x80509a…
10-06 14:59:20	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on October 6?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xa9c0d8…
10-06 05:15:10	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on October 6?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xda77bd…
10-04 07:51:17	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on October 4?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xf0c610…
10-03 00:47:33	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 86-87°F on October 2?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x7d524e…
10-02 07:16:36	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on October 2?	Yes	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x2ca240…
10-02 03:09:26	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on October 1?	Yes	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x6c2d6f…
10-01 05:46:36	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on October 1?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x579307…
09-30 07:36:08	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on September 30?	Yes	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x2a46ea…
09-29 06:41:54	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on September 29?	Yes	BUY	9	100¢	$8	0x095fa2…
09-28 07:38:08	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on September 28?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xf36c3b…
09-27 10:41:42	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on September 27?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x7e5fdb…
09-26 08:23:06	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on September 26?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x936ae6…
09-25 01:40:50	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on September 25?	No	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0x8678da…
09-24 01:49:41	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on September 24?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xce205c…
09-23 05:10:46	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on September 23?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xfb97b1…
09-22 01:06:34	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on September 21?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x8120aa…
09-21 07:00:59	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C or below on September 21?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xadbbdd…
09-20 02:13:15	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on September 20?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xc8d372…
09-19 05:39:45	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C or below on September 19?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x80d377…
09-18 09:48:48	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on September 18?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x1729c9…
09-18 01:04:37	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on September 17?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x93b39e…
09-17 00:55:45	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on September 17?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x99fcd7…
09-16 07:12:54	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on September 16?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xb4febf…
09-15 23:25:13	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on September 15?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xfafd0c…
09-15 01:03:36	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on September 15?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xe1d0ac…
09-14 00:45:40	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C or below on September 14?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xf08da7…
09-13 12:45:48	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on September 13?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x79e538…
09-12 03:30:57	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on September 12?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x7ba847…
09-11 01:07:43	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on September 10?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xdc755c…
09-10 01:24:58	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on September 10?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xad6bd1…
09-09 00:51:13	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on September 9?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xaaca28…
09-08 01:02:09	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on September 8?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x128b1a…
09-07 13:31:16	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on September 7?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x82d951…
09-07 01:39:30	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on September 6?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x2aa4dd…
09-06 07:10:37	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C or below on September 6?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x510242…
09-06 01:05:58	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on September 5?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x6b6177…
09-05 09:14:40	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on September 5?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xf395c3…
09-04 08:11:19	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on September 4?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xe03e1c…
09-03 01:08:03	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on September 2?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xe7469e…
09-02 11:03:15	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on September 2?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x696c6e…
09-01 01:18:36	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on August 31?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x618e68…
08-30 00:09:46	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on August 29?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x33ebbd…
08-29 05:45:55	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on August 29?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x2d1633…
08-28 01:23:37	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on August 28?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x819d74…
08-27 01:07:45	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on August 27?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xf9a0ef…
08-26 01:57:40	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on August 25?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xa15e15…
08-25 01:04:40	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on August 25?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x7f76d6…
08-24 07:10:04	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C or higher on August 24?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x14b50e…
08-23 01:01:03	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 106-107°F on August 22?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xca9bec…
08-22 01:20:06	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on August 22?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xa4ccb2…
08-21 01:13:54	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on August 20?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xfbf16c…
08-20 05:29:33	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on August 20?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x3477bc…
08-19 00:23:22	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on August 19?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x1a83d3…
08-18 00:10:34	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on August 17?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x30a363…
08-17 05:09:16	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on August 17?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x6c76da…
08-16 01:37:15	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on August 16?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x5da96f…
08-15 01:16:33	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on August 15?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x4f7327…
08-14 01:17:52	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on August 14?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x80994c…
08-13 00:11:40	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on August 12?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x43b3e4…
08-12 00:21:45	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on August 11?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xfd32b3…
08-11 00:12:45	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on August 10?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xf85674…
08-10 00:16:45	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on August 10?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x2d7f20…
08-09 00:18:16	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on August 9?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xc18b31…
08-08 00:15:22	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C or below on August 8?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x45d911…
08-07 00:13:32	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on August 6?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x5876fc…
08-06 00:18:33	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on August 5?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x039f44…
08-05 00:24:48	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on August 4?	No	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0x096d83…
08-04 00:24:32	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on August 4?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x843af1…
08-03 00:10:32	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on August 2?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xc3f826…
08-02 07:00:05	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on August 2?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x260ad4…
08-02 00:13:48	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on August 1?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xd1ade5…
08-01 00:08:41	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C or higher on July 31?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x0a273a…
07-31 00:59:05	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on July 30?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xf39ac9…
07-30 00:12:06	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on July 29?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x4d96ff…
07-29 00:11:52	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on July 28?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x9e72c5…
07-28 00:07:58	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on July 27?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x7290f7…
07-27 01:17:36	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on July 26?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x959af3…
07-26 08:38:19	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on July 26?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x1b5b3d…
07-26 00:08:28	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on July 25?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xc7b1f6…
07-25 00:24:12	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on July 24?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xfc2e53…
07-24 01:13:37	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on July 23?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xcff758…
07-23 00:26:16	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 98-99°F on July 22?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xb5517d…