Alarmed-Tic-Penny — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$508

Unrealized P&L

-$64

Hit rate

72.7%

Resolved

Trades

256

lifetime

Volume

$21.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$83

Open exposure

$201

4 positions

First seen

2026-05-23

last 11-11 14:04

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 11 days

Categories

Other

67% 30% -$508

Tech

33% 83% +$1,013

Crypto

0% 100% +$2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

20 active days in 12wk • peak 24 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (15) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 15, 2026?	Yes	+200	$141	68¢	$136	-$5	11-10 04:58
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	+200	$120	28¢	$55	-$65	10-01 19:44
GPT-7 released by June 30, 2027?	Yes	+21	$8	49¢	$10	+$2	10-05 13:38
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 12, 2026?	Yes	+0	-$3	54¢	$0	+$3	11-11 14:04

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Claude 4.8 released by May 31?	13	$5.1K	3,911	1,956	+1,956	Yes	+$244	05-28 15:15
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?	48	$2.9K	6,389	6,389	+0	open	—	10-15 04:35
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	9	$2.7K	2,259	2,259	+0	open	—	09-12 14:27
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?	15	$2.2K	1,653	1,653	+0	Yes	-$170	09-12 20:29
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?	19	$1.7K	2,220	2,220	+0	open	—	09-22 17:39
will a claude mythos model be released by june 9 2026	11	$985	637	637	+0	Yes	+$67	06-09 15:59
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?	10	$835	972	972	+0	open	—	09-13 01:05
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?	9	$705	474	474	+0	open	—	09-12 14:24
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	7	$665	1,436	1,436	+0	open	—	09-12 14:43
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?	5	$533	320	320	+0	open	—	09-12 14:22
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	14	$484	1,124	0	+1,124	Yes	+$639	05-30 03:47
Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 22, 2026?	11	$375	465	0	+465	Yes	+$90	09-22 14:35
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by December 31?	3	$283	166	166	+0	open	—	09-12 14:29
next astra model 6pt1 released by october 31 2026	10	$259	450	450	+0	No	+$47	10-15 05:07
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?	3	$239	2,800	2,800	+0	open	—	09-12 14:35
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?	5	$178	734	734	+0	open	—	09-12 14:43
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?	2	$170	200	200	+0	No	-$170	10-24 00:44
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 15, 2026?	6	$141	200	0	+200	open	—	11-10 04:58
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	1	$120	200	0	+200	open	—	10-01 19:44
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	2	$104	100	100	+0	No	-$54	10-24 00:44
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	2	$94	200	0	+200	No	-$94	10-09 07:17
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by June 30?	4	$88	140	140	+0	No	-$60	06-07 18:54
Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 10, 2026?	3	$75	100	0	+100	Yes	+$25	11-09 11:04
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 12, 2026?	7	$51	50	50	+0	open	—	11-11 14:04
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 19, 2026?	1	$42	50	0	+50	Yes	+$8	11-09 10:53
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31?	3	$40	30	30	+0	open	—	09-12 14:31
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	9	$35	100	0	+100	Yes	-$35	10-05 13:16
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	5	$32	100	0	+100	No	-$32	10-05 18:00
Will the next OpenAI GPT Sol model be released on or prior to September 22, 2026?	1	$18	20	0	+20	Yes	+$2	09-22 14:35
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31?	2	$16	11	11	+0	open	—	09-12 14:30

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-11 14:04:39	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 12, 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	55¢	$4	0x9d46c9…
11-11 12:04:21	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 12, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	55¢	$11	0xd1e1ec…
11-11 12:04:19	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 12, 2026?	Yes	SELL	15	55¢	$8	0x8146fd…
11-11 12:04:18	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 12, 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	55¢	$5	0x07efcc…
11-10 04:58:39	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	87	69¢	$60	0x9459f8…
11-10 00:58:55	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	69¢	$6	0xfb939f…
11-10 00:52:10	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	69¢	$2	0x3809d2…
11-09 16:17:01	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 12, 2026?	Yes	BUY	18	48¢	$9	0x4dd69b…
11-09 14:30:12	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 12, 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	48¢	$6	0xcd216a…
11-09 14:09:24	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 12, 2026?	Yes	BUY	19	48¢	$9	0xb9e383…
11-09 11:04:22	Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	56	75¢	$42	0x1c6618…
11-09 10:53:52	Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	75¢	$18	0xa9e042…
11-09 10:53:52	Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	75¢	$15	0x200861…
11-09 10:53:27	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	84¢	$42	0x15ca5c…
11-09 10:47:30	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on November 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	31¢	$6	0xe810a1…
11-03 16:57:40	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	28	72¢	$20	0x1d12c4…
11-03 16:44:10	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	72¢	$16	0x96bbc4…
11-03 16:44:09	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	72¢	$36	0x867d04…
10-24 00:44:33	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	25¢	$25	0x9dfb83…
10-24 00:44:15	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	0¢	$0	0xbde5ce…
10-15 05:07:11	next astra model 6pt1 released by october 31 2026	Yes	SELL	450	34¢	$153	0xd0fa0f…
10-15 04:35:56	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?	Yes	SELL	81	5¢	$4	0x6cb57b…
10-15 03:40:19	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?	Yes	SELL	1,203	5¢	$60	0x86bd68…
10-13 15:36:55	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?	Yes	SELL	29	5¢	$1	0x0ca284…
10-13 15:36:43	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?	Yes	SELL	40	5¢	$2	0xf08063…
10-13 15:36:43	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?	Yes	SELL	44	5¢	$2	0x89cd6f…
10-13 15:36:43	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?	Yes	SELL	709	5¢	$35	0x3eefa7…
10-13 15:36:32	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?	Yes	SELL	7	6¢	$0	0x4b844e…
10-09 23:05:05	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?	Yes	SELL	26	7¢	$2	0xb9cde0…
10-09 07:18:36	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	79¢	$79	0x5964b5…
10-09 07:17:49	Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	194	47¢	$91	0xfcf9fb…
10-09 07:17:43	Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	47¢	$3	0x64a1ed…
10-08 01:31:44	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?	Yes	SELL	30	7¢	$2	0x4c12bd…
10-08 01:30:50	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?	Yes	SELL	78	7¢	$5	0xb30e3a…
10-08 01:30:08	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?	Yes	SELL	20	7¢	$1	0x1a620d…
10-07 13:50:11	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	85¢	$170	0x418bc3…
10-07 13:41:01	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?	Yes	SELL	144	7¢	$10	0xd89f4d…
10-07 13:40:50	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?	Yes	SELL	501	7¢	$35	0x165fa2…
10-06 13:44:31	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	18¢	$9	0x704b9d…
10-06 12:44:22	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	19¢	$10	0xc2b058…
10-06 12:44:21	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	86	19¢	$16	0x6f52d9…
10-06 09:44:58	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?	Yes	SELL	118	7¢	$8	0x0f40b5…
10-06 09:44:57	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?	Yes	SELL	200	7¢	$14	0x6f8619…
10-06 09:44:55	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?	Yes	SELL	200	7¢	$14	0x30741d…
10-06 09:44:54	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?	Yes	SELL	200	7¢	$14	0x67fcfa…
10-06 09:44:52	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?	Yes	SELL	253	7¢	$18	0xfde76f…
10-05 18:00:26	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	32¢	$4	0x77f1f9…
10-05 17:47:25	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	32¢	$5	0x707c4e…
10-05 17:36:41	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	19¢	$0	0x4a23c7…
10-05 15:58:11	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	32¢	$2	0x3f0ca3…
10-05 15:51:04	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	32¢	$2	0x4d4c24…
10-05 14:03:38	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	62	19¢	$12	0xdffb96…
10-05 13:38:37	GPT-7 released by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	21	38¢	$8	0xdfcf44…
10-05 13:34:49	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	61	32¢	$19	0x9bc19b…
10-05 13:16:40	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	1	35¢	$0	0x9df483…
10-05 11:45:47	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	18	35¢	$6	0x6954f2…
10-05 11:29:55	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	4	35¢	$1	0x92405a…
10-05 11:18:35	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	2	35¢	$1	0x7a6c8f…
10-05 11:05:13	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	7	35¢	$3	0x7373b1…
10-05 10:31:58	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	2	35¢	$1	0x50989d…
10-05 10:31:40	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	2	35¢	$1	0x383950…
10-05 10:25:01	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	31	35¢	$11	0xbe5398…
10-05 10:19:23	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	34	35¢	$12	0xc1ab66…
10-05 10:17:46	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?	Yes	SELL	200	7¢	$14	0xac2cea…
10-05 10:17:34	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?	Yes	SELL	200	7¢	$14	0xb9dc73…
10-05 10:17:23	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?	Yes	SELL	200	7¢	$14	0x1a6397…
10-05 10:17:14	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?	Yes	SELL	200	7¢	$14	0xe8557f…
10-05 10:17:02	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?	Yes	SELL	250	7¢	$18	0x98edb9…
10-04 20:05:47	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?	Yes	SELL	655	7¢	$46	0x61c285…
10-03 11:24:47	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	41¢	$1	0xf210b2…
10-03 10:32:27	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	80	41¢	$33	0x81cd26…
10-03 09:52:47	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	41¢	$7	0x14cf4d…
10-02 17:47:35	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?	Yes	SELL	294	10¢	$29	0x7b3799…
10-01 22:29:42	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	18¢	$18	0x9e5ffa…
10-01 19:44:45	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	BUY	200	60¢	$120	0x74c722…
09-22 17:39:33	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?	Yes	SELL	579	31¢	$179	0xf1725b…
09-22 14:52:48	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?	Yes	SELL	9	31¢	$3	0x883752…
09-22 14:52:46	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?	Yes	SELL	174	31¢	$54	0x8ab06d…
09-22 14:52:42	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?	Yes	SELL	115	31¢	$36	0xb88405…
09-22 14:52:42	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?	Yes	SELL	6	31¢	$2	0xa015c5…
09-22 14:52:40	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?	Yes	SELL	6	31¢	$2	0x6297fc…
09-22 14:35:42	Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	29	81¢	$23	0xf595ba…
09-22 14:35:40	Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	111	80¢	$89	0xf5c5e7…
09-22 14:35:15	Will the next OpenAI GPT Sol model be released on or prior to September 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	89¢	$18	0x48fdde…
09-22 14:35:03	Will the next OpenAI GPT Luna model be released on or prior to September 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	74¢	$15	0xdea8af…
09-22 14:20:51	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?	Yes	SELL	400	31¢	$124	0x60ae3b…
09-22 13:08:25	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?	Yes	SELL	65	31¢	$20	0x398fe2…
09-22 13:08:06	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?	Yes	SELL	16	31¢	$5	0x0c4678…
09-22 12:49:30	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?	Yes	SELL	7	15¢	$1	0x420fed…
09-22 07:04:37	Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	18	82¢	$15	0x10ee96…
09-22 07:01:57	Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	81¢	$41	0xec175b…
09-22 07:01:28	Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	103	81¢	$84	0x9c6dc4…
09-22 06:59:24	Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	81¢	$40	0x956713…
09-22 06:59:13	Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	45	81¢	$36	0x61aa1f…
09-22 06:59:13	Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0x6040ad…
09-22 06:58:28	Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	81¢	$8	0x4f1502…
09-22 06:58:27	Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	81¢	$32	0x565206…
09-22 06:57:19	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?	Yes	SELL	48	14¢	$7	0x378b97…
09-22 06:56:13	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?	Yes	SELL	848	31¢	$263	0x59c0dc…
09-21 16:36:26	Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	67¢	$3	0xd6128a…