Ill-Informed-Contingency — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$268

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

78.1%

Resolved

188

Trades

590

lifetime

Volume

$14.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$25

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-01

last 07-24 19:48

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 65 days

Categories

Other

57% 59% +$221

Politics

26% 70% -$38

Sports

9% 80% -$69

Tech

5% 25% -$336

Crypto

2% 45% -$29

Pop-Culture

1% 50% -$17

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-07-24).

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
another us government shutdown by february 14	4	$827	603	603	+0	No	+$12	02-10 05:58
israel strikes iran by march 31 2026	7	$547	424	424	+0	Yes	-$59	02-18 14:22
sup bowl national anthem ou 119pt5 seconds	2	$540	378	378	+0	Under	+$11	02-08 12:38
will the gatorade shower at super bowl lx be blue	10	$508	363	363	+0	No	+$7	02-07 18:38
will mrbeasts latest video get between 55 and 60 million views on week 1	5	$439	264	264	+0	No	-$11	02-10 13:49
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	4	$438	626	626	-0	No	+$0	03-21 04:37
will turnout in the bangladesh parliamentary election be between 80 and 85	2	$437	230	230	+0	No	+$9	02-12 12:10
will the liberal democratic party win by between 190 and 219 seats	3	$425	303	303	+0	No	+$25	02-08 02:50
will spyglass pharma incs market cap be between 500m and 550m at market close on ipo day	5	$407	242	236	+6	No	+$6	02-06 18:39
will claude 5 be released by february 28 2026 352 784	2	$393	236	236	+0	No	+$7	02-07 13:33
will the bad bunny apple music super bowl halftime show video get between 40 and 50 million views on day 1	6	$392	228	228	+0	Yes	+$30	02-10 03:17
will bhumjaithai party bjt win the most seats in the 2026 thai legislative election	3	$389	291	291	+0	Yes	+$1	02-04 18:03
will russia enter rizdvianka by february 28	2	$385	250	250	+0	No	+$5	02-04 12:58
will forgent power solutions market cap be less than 8pt00b at market close on ipo day	5	$378	217	227	-10	No	+$4	02-06 07:21
will the bad bunny apple music super bowl halftime show video get between 30 and 40 million views on day 1	15	$342	1,119	319	+800	No	-$132	02-09 17:13
will bangladesh jamaat e islami win the most seats in the bangladesh parliamentary election	6	$340	218	218	+0	No	+$4	02-11 17:46
donald trump of truth social posts february 10 february 17 120 139	3	$338	203	203	+0	Yes	+$4	02-15 06:12
will trump and netanyahu not shake hands by february 13 2026	2	$333	208	208	+0	No	+$4	02-11 17:18
will bangladesh nationalist party win the most seats in the bangladesh parliamentary election	7	$331	221	221	+0	Yes	+$4	02-11 11:50
deepseek v4 released by march 15 678	2	$331	290	290	+0	No	+$6	02-13 03:22
bp quarterly earnings nongaap eps 02 10 2026 0pt61	2	$312	159	159	+0	No	+$4	02-10 08:12
us x iran meeting by february 28 2026	4	$312	190	190	+0	Yes	+$4	02-08 15:51
will trump say iran 7 times during meeting with netanyahu 165	3	$294	181	181	+0	No	+$13	02-11 09:45
will mrbeasts latest video get between 50 and 55 million views on week 1	7	$278	198	198	+0	Yes	+$3	02-11 05:04
us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by march 31	5	$268	454	454	+0	No	+$5	03-15 20:40
highest temperature in seoul on april 23 2026 21c	2	$253	131	130	+0	No	+$7	04-23 05:04
elon musk of tweets march 12 march 14 90 114	5	$209	200	200	+0	Yes	+$7	03-14 14:04
will arko petroleum corps market cap be between 850m and 900m at market close on ipo day	8	$202	958	858	+100	No	+$56	02-12 18:38
highest temperature in istanbul on april 23 2026 14c	5	$177	96	96	+1	Yes	+$11	04-23 14:00
will chatgpt be back in as the 1 free app in the us apple store by march 21	4	$173	7,888	0	+7,888	Yes	-$173	03-21 17:02

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-24 19:48:40	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 35°C on July 25?	Yes	BUY	50	22¢	$11	0x0007c4…
07-24 07:52:15	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on July 25?	Yes	SELL	50	40¢	$20	0x6cec7e…
07-24 07:49:46	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on July 25?	Yes	BUY	50	39¢	$20	0x9f694e…
07-19 15:09:39	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on July 20?	No	SELL	50	44¢	$22	0xb5702a…
07-19 15:05:03	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on July 20?	No	BUY	50	44¢	$22	0xc40e89…
07-15 00:57:53	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 15?	Yes	SELL	54	15¢	$8	0xb77068…
07-15 00:57:34	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C on July 15?	Yes	SELL	93	25¢	$23	0xa0ca3d…
07-15 00:18:50	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 15?	Yes	SELL	46	19¢	$9	0x5a4099…
07-15 00:08:19	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C on July 15?	Yes	BUY	93	45¢	$42	0x4f98c3…
07-15 00:08:13	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on July 15?	Yes	SELL	4	37¢	$2	0xdaa7a8…
07-15 00:06:32	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on July 15?	Yes	BUY	4	36¢	$1	0x09ea4e…
07-14 23:37:31	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 15?	Yes	BUY	100	18¢	$18	0xba98d0…
07-14 22:24:14	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 15?	Yes	SELL	13	30¢	$4	0x015ac2…
07-14 18:19:50	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 15?	Yes	SELL	5	30¢	$2	0x6b7b87…
07-14 18:10:31	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 15?	Yes	BUY	18	29¢	$5	0xc22c85…
07-01 03:13:25	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 33°C on July 2?	Yes	SELL	16	38¢	$6	0x2867f0…
07-01 02:54:52	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 33°C on July 2?	Yes	BUY	16	40¢	$7	0x19ddcc…
06-30 08:19:37	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C or below on July 1?	Yes	SELL	9	43¢	$4	0xe5d075…
06-30 08:15:29	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C or below on July 1?	Yes	BUY	9	44¢	$4	0x70a7ac…
06-30 01:35:10	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on June 30?	Yes	SELL	4	44¢	$2	0x12360c…
06-30 01:34:49	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on June 30?	Yes	SELL	15	24¢	$4	0xff3671…
06-30 01:02:31	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on June 30?	Yes	BUY	15	23¢	$3	0x55c380…
06-30 00:41:02	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on June 30?	Yes	SELL	5	44¢	$2	0xcb1d48…
06-30 00:39:32	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on June 30?	Yes	BUY	9	43¢	$4	0x11d1c2…
06-24 23:52:44	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 25?	Yes	SELL	50	18¢	$9	0x739d1a…
06-24 23:52:38	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 25?	No	SELL	15	35¢	$5	0x42c72b…
06-24 23:01:11	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 25?	No	SELL	20	44¢	$9	0x2b22d6…
06-24 23:00:25	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 25?	No	SELL	15	44¢	$7	0xcd2d5f…
06-24 22:52:11	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 25?	Yes	SELL	50	42¢	$21	0xb3e1ec…
06-24 21:28:47	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 25?	No	BUY	50	43¢	$22	0xb718eb…
06-24 21:24:38	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 25?	Yes	BUY	50	28¢	$14	0x1e070d…
06-24 14:10:50	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 25?	Yes	SELL	11	42¢	$5	0x4b82cf…
06-24 14:07:35	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 25?	Yes	SELL	39	42¢	$16	0x4780a0…
06-24 14:06:02	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 25?	Yes	BUY	50	41¢	$20	0x5cabb1…
06-24 12:24:49	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 25?	Yes	BUY	50	44¢	$22	0x6d9ce1…
06-24 08:48:49	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 25?	Yes	SELL	43	43¢	$18	0x6ccfaf…
06-24 08:47:43	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 25?	Yes	SELL	6	17¢	$1	0x2b301c…
06-24 08:46:56	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 25?	Yes	SELL	50	33¢	$16	0xa56966…
06-24 08:14:08	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 25?	Yes	SELL	7	44¢	$3	0x3c868a…
06-24 07:48:40	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 25?	Yes	BUY	50	34¢	$17	0xa14efd…
06-24 07:48:23	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 25?	Yes	BUY	6	25¢	$1	0x9f14b1…
06-24 06:47:31	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 25?	Yes	BUY	50	43¢	$22	0x39709b…
06-24 01:58:08	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C on June 24?	Yes	SELL	45	19¢	$9	0x924ce5…
06-23 22:00:14	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C on June 24?	Yes	SELL	1	23¢	$0	0x9d6201…
06-23 18:17:35	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C on June 24?	Yes	BUY	46	22¢	$10	0x2d6637…
06-19 12:05:44	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 20?	Yes	SELL	6	34¢	$2	0x66e096…
06-19 11:46:07	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 20?	Yes	SELL	10	34¢	$3	0x8e0069…
06-19 11:04:58	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 20?	Yes	SELL	11	34¢	$4	0xa8ff21…
06-19 11:03:34	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 20?	Yes	SELL	6	34¢	$2	0xa5854f…
06-19 10:52:37	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 20?	Yes	SELL	4	34¢	$1	0xbd44c0…
06-19 10:40:55	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 20?	Yes	SELL	3	34¢	$1	0x626e4b…
06-19 10:33:08	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 20?	Yes	SELL	2	34¢	$1	0xde018e…
06-19 10:15:50	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 20?	Yes	SELL	3	34¢	$1	0xd8de64…
06-19 10:15:28	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 20?	Yes	SELL	2	34¢	$1	0x1e132c…
06-19 10:14:56	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 20?	Yes	SELL	3	34¢	$1	0x576554…
06-19 00:59:19	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 20?	Yes	SELL	31	38¢	$12	0x078a04…
06-19 00:28:04	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 20?	Yes	BUY	31	37¢	$12	0x250fa1…
06-18 21:43:47	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 20?	Yes	SELL	10	26¢	$3	0x145cc1…
06-18 21:43:04	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 20?	Yes	BUY	10	26¢	$3	0x1f9570…
06-18 18:17:37	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 20?	Yes	BUY	50	33¢	$16	0x9a20de…
06-18 14:21:14	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on June 20?	Yes	SELL	0	39¢	$0	0x1821f4…
06-18 14:14:58	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on June 20?	Yes	BUY	0	38¢	$0	0x26d4e5…
06-10 05:41:12	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 10?	Yes	SELL	50	1¢	$0	0x4d6a60…
06-10 05:40:51	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 10?	Yes	SELL	50	16¢	$8	0xc8d4f4…
06-10 03:32:34	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 10?	Yes	SELL	50	47¢	$24	0x454fb4…
06-10 01:42:04	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 10?	Yes	SELL	9	46¢	$4	0xc3166d…
06-10 01:42:04	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 10?	Yes	SELL	41	46¢	$19	0x880de7…
06-10 01:41:24	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 10?	Yes	SELL	50	5¢	$3	0x68d2ad…
06-10 01:38:49	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 10?	Yes	SELL	48	33¢	$16	0x9bb7c4…
06-10 01:35:36	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 10?	Yes	SELL	2	30¢	$0	0xfd01f9…
06-10 01:35:28	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 10?	Yes	BUY	50	45¢	$22	0x62598c…
06-10 01:09:06	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 10?	Yes	BUY	20	27¢	$5	0xf474cc…
06-10 01:08:55	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 10?	Yes	BUY	50	5¢	$2	0xaca893…
06-10 01:06:46	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 10?	Yes	BUY	16	31¢	$5	0xb2a3e7…
06-10 00:59:45	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 10?	Yes	BUY	2	28¢	$1	0x37ca46…
06-10 00:58:22	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 10?	Yes	BUY	20	28¢	$6	0xe1b5e9…
06-10 00:54:34	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 10?	Yes	BUY	7	26¢	$2	0xb6c7d8…
06-10 00:54:34	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 10?	Yes	BUY	5	26¢	$1	0x9404b8…
06-10 00:53:16	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 10?	Yes	BUY	8	11¢	$1	0x1bb690…
06-10 00:51:07	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 10?	Yes	BUY	30	25¢	$8	0xc7c757…
06-10 00:50:22	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 10?	Yes	BUY	50	41¢	$20	0x931fec…
06-10 00:48:24	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 10?	Yes	BUY	8	11¢	$1	0x488e86…
06-10 00:47:45	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 10?	Yes	BUY	34	11¢	$4	0x345172…
06-05 09:29:39	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 5?	Yes	SELL	45	42¢	$19	0x3d823e…
06-05 09:21:37	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 5?	Yes	SELL	5	44¢	$2	0x43f229…
06-05 09:12:51	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 5?	Yes	BUY	50	42¢	$21	0x9887fb…
06-05 09:12:12	Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 5?	Yes	SELL	19	29¢	$6	0x813035…
06-05 09:10:03	Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 5?	Yes	BUY	6	27¢	$2	0xf536b8…
06-05 09:10:03	Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 5?	Yes	BUY	7	27¢	$2	0x6554ef…
06-05 09:10:01	Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 5?	Yes	BUY	7	27¢	$2	0x80205e…
05-31 06:32:57	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on May 31?	Yes	SELL	98	89¢	$87	0x61719e…
05-31 05:54:29	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on May 31?	Yes	SELL	50	29¢	$15	0xdd8650…
05-31 05:48:20	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on May 31?	Yes	SELL	50	20¢	$10	0x042d50…
05-31 05:40:19	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on May 31?	Yes	BUY	60	5¢	$3	0xccd1ff…
05-31 05:38:18	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on May 31?	Yes	BUY	99	3¢	$3	0x6bfc30…
05-31 05:38:09	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on May 31?	Yes	BUY	39	3¢	$1	0xd0ef3e…
05-31 02:49:29	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 31?	Yes	SELL	12	7¢	$1	0x1c4c46…
05-31 02:36:35	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 31?	Yes	SELL	21	5¢	$1	0xaaa249…
05-31 01:47:14	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 31?	Yes	BUY	33	6¢	$2	0x754f5b…
05-29 21:52:59	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on May 29?	Yes	SELL	61	0¢	$0	0xbe50b0…