Puzzled-Caramel — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$47.5K

Unrealized P&L

+$4

Hit rate

65.9%

Resolved

37,978

Trades

121,687

lifetime

Volume

$2.38M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$20

Open exposure

$46

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-12

last 11-14 20:00

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 300 days

Categories

Crypto

100% 55% -$47,531

Other

0% 29% -$18

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

84 active days in 12wk • peak 4142 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Down	—	+46	$36	98¢	$46	+$9	11-14 20:32
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Up	—	+9	$6	2¢	$0	-$5	11-14 20:30

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-19 14:10 UTC	5	$3.2K	2,722	2,722	+0	Down	+$778	08-19 14:12
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-19 13:45 UTC	10	$2.4K	1,510	1,510	+0	Up	+$457	08-19 13:48
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-25 11:10 UTC	4	$2.4K	1,783	1,783	+0	Up	+$439	06-25 11:11
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-24 14:35 UTC	3	$2.3K	1,667	1,667	+0	Down	+$491	08-24 14:39
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-28 13:45 UTC	8	$2.1K	1,329	1,329	+0	Up	+$280	08-28 13:47
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-04 09:30 UTC	3	$2.0K	2,036	1,679	+357	Down	+$805	02-04 09:44
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-11 15:00 UTC	9	$1.9K	1,276	1,276	+0	Up	+$339	08-11 15:02
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 08:55 UTC	2	$1.9K	1,515	1,515	+0	Down	+$362	08-20 08:56
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	2	$1.7K	1,305	1,305	+0	Down	+$321	06-15 11:27
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-24 08:30 UTC	2	$1.7K	1,149	1,149	+0	Up	+$405	08-24 08:32
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-11 12:00 UTC	7	$1.7K	1,173	1,173	+0	Up	+$345	08-11 12:02
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	2	$1.7K	1,160	1,160	+0	Up	+$337	05-26 11:32
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-03 08:30 UTC	7	$1.7K	1,464	1,447	+17	Up	+$202	02-03 08:36
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-30 12:40 UTC	2	$1.6K	1,177	1,156	+21	Up	+$663	03-30 12:47
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-12 14:55 UTC	2	$1.6K	1,039	1,023	+16	Up	+$425	03-12 14:59
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-16 16:20 UTC	7	$1.6K	1,001	1,001	+0	Down	+$396	08-16 16:24
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-11 18:00 UTC	3	$1.6K	1,331	1,331	+0	Down	+$501	06-11 18:04
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-27 19:35 UTC	5	$1.6K	1,661	1,644	+17	Down	+$614	03-27 19:40
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-12 14:50 UTC	2	$1.5K	1,629	1,605	+25	Up	-$298	03-12 14:54
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-23 11:20 UTC	2	$1.5K	1,178	1,164	+14	Down	+$794	03-23 11:25
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-12 08:05 UTC	3	$1.5K	1,049	1,034	+15	Down	+$282	03-12 08:07
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	6	$1.5K	1,131	1,131	+0	Up	+$528	05-23 20:47
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-24 13:30 UTC	2	$1.5K	1,102	1,102	+0	Down	+$405	08-24 13:32
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 28, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	3	$1.4K	982	982	+0	Up	+$482	08-28 09:53
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-15 22:05 UTC	6	$1.4K	1,093	1,076	+17	Down	+$230	03-15 22:06
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-23 14:00 UTC	3	$1.4K	835	829	+6	Up	+$128	03-23 14:14
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-15 21:55 UTC	6	$1.4K	1,150	1,133	+17	Up	+$129	03-15 21:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	6	$1.4K	1,107	977	+131	Up	+$207	04-27 05:43
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-23 14:15 UTC	3	$1.4K	1,403	1,282	+120	Down	+$133	03-23 14:26
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	3	$1.4K	1,069	1,069	+0	Up	+$322	09-08 12:49

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-14 20:32:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Down	BUY	7	94¢	$7	0xca7359…
11-14 20:32:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Down	BUY	8	91¢	$7	0xc288eb…
11-14 20:31:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Down	BUY	8	86¢	$7	0x49ed2f…
11-14 20:31:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Down	BUY	8	80¢	$7	0xfc42eb…
11-14 20:31:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Down	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0x1b312f…
11-14 20:30:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Down	BUY	6	65¢	$4	0x7c9bdb…
11-14 20:30:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Up	BUY	9	65¢	$6	0x081135…
11-14 20:29:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Up	BUY	17	7¢	$1	0x8264c9…
11-14 20:28:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Down	BUY	8	87¢	$7	0x2a6a0a…
11-14 20:28:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Down	BUY	8	73¢	$6	0x6ebcf4…
11-14 20:28:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Down	BUY	13	61¢	$8	0xc22ee9…
11-14 20:27:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Up	BUY	8	70¢	$6	0x348aad…
11-14 20:26:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Up	BUY	11	66¢	$7	0x0de7b9…
11-14 20:25:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Down	BUY	8	73¢	$6	0x1a5660…
11-14 20:25:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Down	BUY	8	65¢	$5	0x30bcf2…
11-14 20:22:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Up	BUY	6	92¢	$6	0x8f5255…
11-14 20:22:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Up	BUY	8	85¢	$7	0x4846de…
11-14 20:21:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Up	BUY	8	78¢	$6	0x0c82ab…
11-14 20:21:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Up	BUY	8	74¢	$6	0xbf11b8…
11-14 20:20:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Up	BUY	13	64¢	$8	0xe4c9cc…
11-14 20:20:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Down	BUY	13	41¢	$5	0x49ab26…
11-14 20:20:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Down	BUY	6	59¢	$4	0x2a5981…
11-14 20:20:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Up	BUY	8	45¢	$4	0xb7d813…
11-14 20:18:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Down	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x181f50…
11-14 20:17:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Down	BUY	7	73¢	$5	0x0c1e07…
11-14 20:17:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Down	BUY	8	67¢	$6	0x9535c0…
11-14 20:16:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Down	BUY	7	72¢	$5	0xb6c7e2…
11-14 20:16:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Down	BUY	8	81¢	$7	0x56747d…
11-14 20:15:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Down	BUY	7	78¢	$5	0xd4c160…
11-14 20:15:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Down	BUY	8	66¢	$6	0x9edca0…
11-14 20:15:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Down	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0x0b249d…
11-14 20:13:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Down	BUY	6	95¢	$6	0x167a13…
11-14 20:13:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Down	BUY	8	93¢	$8	0xb40c34…
11-14 20:13:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Down	BUY	8	92¢	$8	0x60821a…
11-14 20:12:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Down	BUY	8	73¢	$6	0x159bfa…
11-14 20:11:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Down	BUY	9	66¢	$6	0xdb8376…
11-14 20:11:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Down	BUY	8	53¢	$4	0xafafa3…
11-14 20:11:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Down	BUY	8	45¢	$4	0x19c7bc…
11-14 20:07:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Down	BUY	8	95¢	$8	0x6f846e…
11-14 20:06:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Down	BUY	7	90¢	$6	0xe81c91…
11-14 20:06:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Down	BUY	0	88¢	$0	0xaa4bb8…
11-14 20:06:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Down	BUY	6	73¢	$4	0x10ead5…
11-14 20:06:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Down	BUY	7	57¢	$4	0xce64d7…
11-14 20:05:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Down	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x151aca…
11-14 20:05:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Down	BUY	9	57¢	$5	0x3d5842…
11-14 20:01:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Up	BUY	8	94¢	$8	0x0dae44…
11-14 20:01:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Up	BUY	2	93¢	$2	0xdc8702…
11-14 20:00:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Up	BUY	8	85¢	$7	0x5334d2…
11-14 20:00:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Up	BUY	8	80¢	$6	0x3b2e89…
11-14 19:58:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Down	BUY	24	84¢	$20	0x250950…
11-14 19:58:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	8	80¢	$7	0x4d2085…
11-14 19:58:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	15	59¢	$9	0xb23254…
11-14 19:56:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Down	BUY	7	63¢	$4	0xc0ac6a…
11-14 19:56:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	11	68¢	$7	0xd64845…
11-14 19:55:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Down	BUY	8	67¢	$5	0xdd5468…
11-14 19:55:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Down	BUY	8	56¢	$4	0x40e96c…
11-14 19:52:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Up	BUY	15	60¢	$9	0xec3c34…
11-14 19:51:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Down	BUY	23	62¢	$14	0xee11a3…
11-14 19:51:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Up	BUY	9	71¢	$6	0x630a49…
11-14 19:51:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Up	BUY	8	80¢	$7	0xd7cb57…
11-14 19:50:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Up	BUY	9	66¢	$6	0x0cc180…
11-14 19:50:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Up	BUY	8	71¢	$6	0xe78f36…
11-14 19:47:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	BUY	8	88¢	$7	0x0cb9bf…
11-14 19:46:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	BUY	7	76¢	$5	0x01f691…
11-14 19:46:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	BUY	8	70¢	$6	0xd0607f…
11-14 19:46:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	BUY	8	65¢	$5	0xd300a0…
11-14 19:45:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	BUY	8	58¢	$5	0x87a2c4…
11-14 19:45:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	BUY	8	54¢	$4	0xc6006d…
11-14 19:42:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	8	66¢	$5	0x043aff…
11-14 19:40:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	6	67¢	$4	0x4bbb77…
11-14 19:40:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Down	BUY	9	29¢	$2	0x61fde9…
11-14 19:37:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	8	71¢	$6	0xc0f5d3…
11-14 19:35:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	6	68¢	$4	0x578b0f…
11-14 19:35:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Down	BUY	9	32¢	$3	0x96286b…
11-14 19:34:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Down	BUY	8	84¢	$7	0x952e04…
11-14 19:33:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Down	BUY	22	71¢	$16	0xa4abb2…
11-14 19:33:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Down	BUY	6	68¢	$4	0x1c25c9…
11-14 19:33:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Up	BUY	8	83¢	$7	0x5bfffe…
11-14 19:32:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Up	BUY	8	80¢	$7	0x1b2bec…
11-14 19:31:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Up	BUY	8	77¢	$6	0x8cf23b…
11-14 19:31:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Up	BUY	11	66¢	$7	0xf08874…
11-14 19:30:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Down	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0x7493fd…
11-14 19:30:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Down	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0xa9a115…
11-14 19:27:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Up	BUY	8	92¢	$8	0x62b194…
11-14 19:26:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Up	BUY	7	92¢	$7	0x3c91d7…
11-14 19:26:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Up	BUY	8	88¢	$7	0xa35e20…
11-14 19:25:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Up	BUY	8	84¢	$7	0x8ea497…
11-14 19:25:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	82¢	$4	0x15a5a0…
11-14 19:25:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Down	BUY	8	55¢	$5	0x764ac6…
11-14 19:23:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Down	BUY	5	90¢	$5	0xdeda33…
11-14 19:22:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Down	BUY	6	62¢	$4	0xe872ce…
11-14 19:22:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Down	BUY	8	82¢	$7	0x05937f…
11-14 19:21:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Down	BUY	7	61¢	$4	0x4b4e77…
11-14 19:21:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Down	BUY	8	63¢	$5	0xe0e2c0…
11-14 19:21:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Down	BUY	9	61¢	$5	0x0c2f4a…
11-14 19:20:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Down	BUY	8	65¢	$5	0xd8503b…
11-14 19:20:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Down	BUY	8	69¢	$6	0x5ecef9…
11-14 19:18:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Down	BUY	8	71¢	$6	0xa1673d…
11-14 19:17:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Down	BUY	18	61¢	$11	0x60f6cd…
11-14 19:17:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Up	BUY	27	62¢	$17	0xd16808…