Puzzled-Caramel — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$47.5K

Unrealized P&L

+$9

Hit rate

65.9%

Resolved

38,062

Trades

122,184

lifetime

Volume

$2.38M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$20

Open exposure

$25

1 position

First seen

2026-01-12

last 11-15 10:08

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 301 days

Categories

Crypto

100% 55% -$47,528

Other

0% 29% -$18

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

85 active days in 12wk • peak 4142 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Down	—	+25	$16	99¢	$25	+$9	11-15 11:58

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-19 14:10 UTC	5	$3.2K	2,722	2,722	+0	Down	+$778	08-19 14:12
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-19 13:45 UTC	10	$2.4K	1,510	1,510	+0	Up	+$457	08-19 13:48
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-25 11:10 UTC	4	$2.4K	1,783	1,783	+0	Up	+$439	06-25 11:11
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-24 14:35 UTC	3	$2.3K	1,667	1,667	+0	Down	+$491	08-24 14:39
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-28 13:45 UTC	8	$2.1K	1,329	1,329	+0	Up	+$280	08-28 13:47
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-04 09:30 UTC	3	$2.0K	2,036	1,679	+357	Down	+$805	02-04 09:44
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-11 15:00 UTC	9	$1.9K	1,276	1,276	+0	Up	+$339	08-11 15:02
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 08:55 UTC	2	$1.9K	1,515	1,515	+0	Down	+$362	08-20 08:56
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	2	$1.7K	1,305	1,305	+0	Down	+$321	06-15 11:27
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-24 08:30 UTC	2	$1.7K	1,149	1,149	+0	Up	+$405	08-24 08:32
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-11 12:00 UTC	7	$1.7K	1,173	1,173	+0	Up	+$345	08-11 12:02
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	2	$1.7K	1,160	1,160	+0	Up	+$337	05-26 11:32
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-03 08:30 UTC	7	$1.7K	1,464	1,447	+17	Up	+$202	02-03 08:36
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-30 12:40 UTC	2	$1.6K	1,177	1,156	+21	Up	+$663	03-30 12:47
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-12 14:55 UTC	2	$1.6K	1,039	1,023	+16	Up	+$425	03-12 14:59
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-16 16:20 UTC	7	$1.6K	1,001	1,001	+0	Down	+$396	08-16 16:24
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-11 18:00 UTC	3	$1.6K	1,331	1,331	+0	Down	+$501	06-11 18:04
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-27 19:35 UTC	5	$1.6K	1,661	1,644	+17	Down	+$614	03-27 19:40
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-12 14:50 UTC	2	$1.5K	1,629	1,605	+25	Up	-$298	03-12 14:54
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-23 11:20 UTC	2	$1.5K	1,178	1,164	+14	Down	+$794	03-23 11:25
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-12 08:05 UTC	3	$1.5K	1,049	1,034	+15	Down	+$282	03-12 08:07
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	6	$1.5K	1,131	1,131	+0	Up	+$528	05-23 20:47
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-24 13:30 UTC	2	$1.5K	1,102	1,102	+0	Down	+$405	08-24 13:32
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-28 09:50 UTC	3	$1.4K	982	982	+0	Up	+$482	08-28 09:53
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-15 22:05 UTC	6	$1.4K	1,093	1,076	+17	Down	+$230	03-15 22:06
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-23 14:00 UTC	3	$1.4K	835	829	+6	Up	+$128	03-23 14:14
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-15 21:55 UTC	6	$1.4K	1,150	1,133	+17	Up	+$129	03-15 21:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	6	$1.4K	1,107	977	+131	Up	+$207	04-27 05:43
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-23 14:15 UTC	3	$1.4K	1,403	1,282	+120	Down	+$133	03-23 14:26
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	3	$1.4K	1,069	1,069	+0	Up	+$322	09-08 12:49

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-15 11:58:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Down	BUY	8	84¢	$7	0x88d584…
11-15 11:55:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Down	BUY	8	52¢	$4	0xbafa94…
11-15 11:55:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Down	BUY	8	51¢	$4	0xd577c7…
11-15 11:53:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x8088b8…
11-15 11:52:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Down	BUY	6	90¢	$6	0x2d4978…
11-15 11:52:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Down	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0xf9a089…
11-15 11:52:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Down	BUY	8	85¢	$7	0x5172d0…
11-15 11:51:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Down	BUY	8	90¢	$7	0x4dfd59…
11-15 11:50:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Down	BUY	10	69¢	$7	0x1cb043…
11-15 11:50:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Up	BUY	9	34¢	$3	0x4b73ba…
11-15 11:48:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Down	BUY	8	78¢	$7	0x8e7166…
11-15 11:46:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Down	BUY	8	69¢	$6	0xf417e4…
11-15 11:45:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Down	BUY	8	69¢	$6	0x448e54…
11-15 11:44:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Up	SELL	46	91¢	$42	0xd3e178…
11-15 11:42:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Up	BUY	13	89¢	$12	0xaf59b2…
11-15 11:42:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Up	BUY	9	85¢	$8	0xb2a968…
11-15 11:41:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Up	BUY	8	79¢	$6	0x3f4645…
11-15 11:41:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Up	BUY	8	68¢	$5	0x19c43a…
11-15 11:40:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Up	BUY	8	69¢	$6	0x9ac6ae…
11-15 11:37:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Up	BUY	12	92¢	$11	0xc12347…
11-15 11:36:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Up	BUY	11	68¢	$8	0x0fd82b…
11-15 11:36:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Up	BUY	9	74¢	$7	0xcbf4df…
11-15 11:35:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Up	BUY	8	72¢	$6	0xaa4019…
11-15 11:35:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Up	BUY	9	59¢	$6	0x942603…
11-15 11:35:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Down	BUY	9	43¢	$4	0x6ee19d…
11-15 11:30:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Down	BUY	9	65¢	$6	0x0b1441…
11-15 11:30:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Up	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0xb55b08…
11-15 11:29:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Up	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0xc0abee…
11-15 11:28:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Down	BUY	9	82¢	$7	0xf4ef90…
11-15 11:27:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Down	BUY	8	75¢	$6	0x2af598…
11-15 11:27:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Up	BUY	6	29¢	$2	0x6d932f…
11-15 11:26:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Down	BUY	8	51¢	$4	0x429182…
11-15 11:24:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Up	BUY	9	76¢	$7	0x6d1982…
11-15 11:22:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Down	BUY	8	64¢	$5	0xaaa1df…
11-15 11:20:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Up	BUY	8	82¢	$7	0x2d4968…
11-15 11:20:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Up	BUY	8	82¢	$7	0xb7729a…
11-15 10:08:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Down	SELL	57	74¢	$42	0x0ca9b1…
11-15 10:07:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Down	BUY	15	71¢	$11	0x19c4fe…
11-15 10:06:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Down	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0x8391ca…
11-15 10:06:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Down	BUY	11	67¢	$8	0x24c0e9…
11-15 10:06:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Down	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0xfddc35…
11-15 10:05:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Down	BUY	8	67¢	$6	0x9dba17…
11-15 10:05:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Down	BUY	8	52¢	$4	0x221f77…
11-15 10:01:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Down	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0xeee58e…
11-15 10:00:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Up	BUY	8	52¢	$4	0xd1298f…
11-15 09:58:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Down	SELL	56	90¢	$50	0xb59cb4…
11-15 09:58:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Down	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0x304def…
11-15 09:57:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Down	BUY	13	73¢	$9	0x8e4d16…
11-15 09:57:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Down	BUY	11	76¢	$9	0xbd669b…
11-15 09:56:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Down	BUY	8	85¢	$7	0xbaa220…
11-15 09:55:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Down	BUY	8	71¢	$6	0xd3512e…
11-15 09:55:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Down	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0x47d0f4…
11-15 09:47:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Down	BUY	14	92¢	$13	0x6de2b3…
11-15 09:46:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Down	BUY	10	82¢	$8	0x881ce5…
11-15 09:45:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Down	BUY	6	72¢	$4	0xfeb120…
11-15 09:45:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Down	BUY	8	64¢	$5	0x67500b…
11-15 09:45:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Down	BUY	8	54¢	$4	0xc9572d…
11-15 09:43:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Down	BUY	17	76¢	$13	0xd09454…
11-15 09:42:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Down	BUY	11	71¢	$8	0x18b85f…
11-15 09:41:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Down	BUY	8	78¢	$6	0xf9a2b2…
11-15 09:40:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Down	BUY	8	71¢	$6	0x0ef776…
11-15 09:40:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Down	BUY	8	74¢	$6	0xf29a5f…
11-15 09:37:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Down	BUY	12	92¢	$11	0xc30d21…
11-15 09:36:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Down	BUY	6	91¢	$6	0x7b7736…
11-15 09:36:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Down	BUY	8	86¢	$7	0x11d262…
11-15 09:35:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Down	BUY	8	77¢	$6	0x74631b…
11-15 09:35:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Down	BUY	8	74¢	$6	0x670933…
11-15 09:33:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Down	BUY	8	90¢	$7	0x0ae7a5…
11-15 09:26:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Up	BUY	8	80¢	$7	0x5c0e3e…
11-15 09:23:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Down	SELL	17	89¢	$15	0x3046b7…
11-15 09:23:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Up	SELL	21	27¢	$6	0x312956…
11-15 09:23:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Up	BUY	9	30¢	$3	0x836244…
11-15 09:22:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Down	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0xc8ad1f…
11-15 09:22:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Up	BUY	21	35¢	$7	0xb0b3b6…
11-15 09:22:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Down	BUY	9	46¢	$4	0x16028a…
11-15 09:22:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Down	SELL	9	59¢	$5	0x3b55cd…
11-15 09:21:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Down	BUY	9	40¢	$3	0x633d67…
11-15 09:18:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Down	BUY	8	94¢	$8	0xba5f16…
11-15 09:17:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Up	BUY	18	6¢	$1	0x8b5171…
11-15 09:16:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Down	BUY	8	89¢	$7	0x6eaa39…
11-15 09:13:55	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-11-15 09:10 UTC	Down	BUY	11	16¢	$2	0x57afc5…
11-15 09:13:40	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-11-15 09:10 UTC	Up	BUY	8	79¢	$7	0xdc3c3a…
11-15 09:12:07	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-11-15 09:10 UTC	Down	BUY	11	14¢	$2	0x1ec7a6…
11-15 09:12:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-11-15 09:10 UTC	Up	BUY	8	89¢	$7	0xeff986…
11-15 09:11:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-11-15 09:10 UTC	Up	BUY	9	65¢	$6	0xefdb62…
11-15 09:10:50	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-11-15 09:10 UTC	Down	BUY	9	43¢	$4	0xb54cc9…
11-15 09:08:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Down	BUY	13	15¢	$2	0xdb79d0…
11-15 09:07:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Up	BUY	13	84¢	$11	0x0b5ef8…
11-15 09:06:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Down	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x66bc37…
11-15 09:06:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Up	BUY	7	87¢	$6	0x8f4f5e…
11-15 09:06:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Down	BUY	14	14¢	$2	0xa997bd…
11-15 09:06:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Up	BUY	8	83¢	$7	0xcbb83b…
11-15 09:06:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Down	BUY	7	25¢	$2	0xd8d6f0…
11-15 09:06:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Up	BUY	8	76¢	$6	0x1e58e5…
11-15 09:06:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Down	BUY	6	26¢	$1	0xdc4a0b…
11-15 09:06:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Up	BUY	9	63¢	$6	0x3ed5a1…
11-15 09:05:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Down	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0xc558ad…
11-15 09:01:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Up	BUY	8	94¢	$8	0x9e787e…
11-15 09:00:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Up	BUY	8	84¢	$7	0x5bb5bd…
11-15 09:00:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Up	BUY	8	86¢	$7	0xf15f19…