Realized P&L
-$39.2K
Unrealized P&L
+$951
Hit rate
48.8%
Resolved
24,271
Trades
93,210
lifetime
Volume
$900.8K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$10
Open exposure
$5.27K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 10-29 15:10
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 279 days
Categories
Other
78% 42% -$31,511
Crypto
11% 58% -$1,864
Politics
8% 22% -$4,128
Tech
2% 23% -$1,213
Sports
1% 49% -$503
Pop-Culture
0% 27% -$26
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
76 active days in 12wk • peak 2420 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
situational awareness announces fund wind down by december 31 2026 20260730183020992 No +780 $599 96¢ $750 +$150 07-31 06:44
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? No +751 $568 73¢ $547 -$20 09-13 20:31
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? No +457 $324 97¢ $443 +$118 09-14 08:47
Will Trump and Putin not meet? No +443 $218 84¢ $372 +$155 09-01 09:01
Will any Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? No +263 $238 87¢ $229 -$10 08-23 20:48
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? Yes +262 $129 82¢ $216 +$87 09-09 00:17
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Yes +750 $189 27¢ $203 +$14 09-13 20:13
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? No +200 $178 96¢ $191 +$13 08-25 22:24
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? No +200 $176 91¢ $183 +$7 08-30 19:35
Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice? No +178 $133 94¢ $167 +$34 09-08 14:26
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No +147 $103 88¢ $130 +$27 08-21 08:49
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? No +168 $114 70¢ $117 +$3 08-18 22:45
Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31? No +117 $107 97¢ $114 +$7 09-02 23:40
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? No +150 $61 74¢ $110 +$49 09-11 21:34
Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Yes +110 $54 99¢ $109 +$55 09-02 17:30
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? No +160 $67 68¢ $108 +$41 09-01 18:15
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day? No +132 $119 82¢ $108 -$11 09-02 20:12
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Yes +150 $111 70¢ $106 -$5 09-13 19:53
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026? Yes +138 $84 74¢ $101 +$18 09-11 14:36
Will Oura's market cap be less than $7.5B at market close on IPO day? No +100 $92 100¢ $100 +$8 08-27 14:41
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No +100 $97 99¢ $99 +$2 08-29 15:26
Will no listed leader be out before 2027? Yes +149 $49 63¢ $94 +$45 08-19 07:22
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? Yes +125 $71 74¢ $92 +$22 09-06 21:17
Will Discord not IPO by December 31, 2027? Yes +117 $79 77¢ $90 +$11 09-12 16:21
Iran full airspace closure by December 31? No +140 $108 64¢ $90 -$19 09-08 22:26
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? No +90 $70 94¢ $85 +$15 09-07 01:13
UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31? No +92 $73 90¢ $83 +$10 08-26 12:50
Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026? Yes +110 $24 72¢ $80 +$56 09-10 19:26
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026? Yes +78 $32 99¢ $78 +$45 09-12 18:45
will russia announce a new forced mobilization by december 31 2026 No +80 $49 94¢ $75 +$26 08-25 16:51