Rapid-Precipitation — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$30

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

7.8%

Resolved

Trades

17,598

lifetime

Volume

$114.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 08-13 12:38

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

66% 13% $-30

Other

22% — —

Politics

7% — —

Tech

4% — —

Sports

1% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

29 active days in 12wk • peak 333 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will the next claude opus model be released by july 22 2026	50	$1.3K	1,247	1,242	+6	open	—	07-19 18:21
iran full airspace closure by july 27	27	$1.3K	1,636	1,202	+434	open	—	07-24 14:20
iran military action against a gulf state on july 30 20260708212322955	19	$1.2K	1,301	1,300	+1	open	—	07-25 21:27
will the next claude opus model be released by july 31 2026 20260709185050343 272 345 875 539 124	28	$1.0K	1,095	1,093	+2	open	—	07-24 14:03
iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150 838	14	$1.0K	1,006	972	+34	open	—	07-23 09:41
situational awareness raises new capital by august 31 20260730182353379	11	$928	1,593	0	+1,593	open	—	07-31 08:01
situational awareness announces fund wind down by december 31 2026 20260730183020992	22	$896	1,560	0	+1,560	open	—	07-31 06:44
will trump say soaking wet in august 20260728220215928	3	$566	908	0	+908	open	—	07-30 18:19
untitled market 1 20260730180943686	14	$550	1,033	0	+1,033	open	—	07-31 07:38
will spacex starship flight test 13 superheavy pop	13	$508	842	628	+214	open	—	07-23 18:51
will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 14 2026	15	$494	963	0	+963	open	—	07-31 06:13
israel closes its airspace by august 15	21	$492	466	465	+1	open	—	07-24 20:31
will trump meet with netanyahu by august 31 2026	9	$484	559	559	+0	open	—	07-24 12:25
will 30 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026	15	$479	755	755	+0	open	—	07-27 09:28
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	13	$475	522	372	+150	open	—	07-22 18:05
GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?	12	$468	910	0	+910	open	—	07-30 23:59
over 35m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325653 212	15	$379	523	522	+1	open	—	07-17 16:01
will openai launch a new consumer hardware product by october 31 2026	6	$372	254	229	+25	open	—	07-20 13:12
will spider man brand new day score at least 95 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer 20260630144026314	3	$363	234	214	+20	open	—	07-21 02:55
us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	2	$357	730	0	+730	open	—	07-31 00:03
btc updown 15m 1767714300	30	$345	572	97	+475	open	—	01-06 15:52
us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	12	$337	428	240	+188	open	—	07-26 07:54
iran military action against a gulf state on july 28 20260708212322953	2	$331	214	214	+0	open	—	07-26 09:53
will the batman part ii be delayed 20260721153609985	2	$310	215	215	+0	open	—	07-23 05:34
will reserve be in the headlines this week 20260724154559253	8	$298	235	198	+37	open	—	08-01 20:05
will abnb reach 144 by july 27 2026	22	$289	269	229	+40	open	—	07-27 08:15
Will Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026?	2	$283	214	214	+0	open	—	07-17 14:07
will avengers secret wars be delayed 20260721153722642	6	$283	261	215	+46	open	—	07-25 05:38
btc updown 15m 1767552300	13	$276	191	150	+41	open	—	01-04 18:57
will jpmorgan jpm close at usd 1 trillion or more market cap by august 31 20260715163827894	8	$268	234	214	+20	open	—	07-17 13:46

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-13 12:38:09	will the highest score achieved by a spacexai grok model on humanitys last exam in 2026 be 45 or higher 20260723191456650	No	SELL	4	40¢	$2	0x9485f3…
08-13 12:34:45	will the highest score achieved by a spacexai grok model on humanitys last exam in 2026 be 45 or higher 20260723191456650	No	SELL	46	40¢	$18	0xcfbbbf…
08-12 04:31:28	will warsh be out as fed chair by june 30 2027 20260723173503768	Yes	SELL	56	13¢	$7	0xcc0a48…
08-09 17:08:46	will epic games valuation hit high 15b by december 31	Yes	SELL	16	29¢	$5	0xb6227f…
08-06 07:08:54	will zekken leave mibr in 2026 20260715205615632	No	SELL	100	21¢	$21	0xa89694…
08-05 07:15:44	la28 olympics run as scheduled 20260721200040093	No	SELL	214	16¢	$34	0x1959a2…
08-04 16:00:09	will shakiras monthly listeners figure hit 107m by august 31 20260723155943132	No	SELL	119	69¢	$82	0x00c80b…
08-02 23:20:23	will shakiras monthly listeners figure hit 107m by august 31 20260723155943132	No	SELL	5	69¢	$3	0xaa4d44…
08-02 23:19:42	will shakiras monthly listeners figure hit 107m by august 31 20260723155943132	No	SELL	1	69¢	$1	0x59012b…
08-01 20:05:11	will reserve be in the headlines this week 20260724154559253	Yes	SELL	13	21¢	$3	0x1586ed…
07-31 16:34:35	will spider man brand new day score at least 90 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer 20260630144026313	No	SELL	1	26¢	$0	0xa17615…
07-31 16:33:21	will spider man brand new day score at least 90 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer 20260630144026313	No	SELL	18	26¢	$5	0x2d37e6…
07-31 16:33:00	will spider man brand new day score at least 90 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer 20260630144026313	No	SELL	11	26¢	$3	0x1c2a3c…
07-31 16:32:38	will spider man brand new day score at least 90 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer 20260630144026313	No	SELL	30	26¢	$8	0xd39b6c…
07-31 16:27:45	will spider man brand new day score at least 90 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer 20260630144026313	No	SELL	27	26¢	$7	0xfb6ca6…
07-31 10:28:09	iran military action against a gulf state on july 31 20260708212322956	Yes	SELL	200	28¢	$56	0xed3f3b…
07-31 10:27:53	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 21 2026	Yes	SELL	100	65¢	$65	0xd7f5ab…
07-31 10:27:41	will open dip to 3 50 in july 2026	No	SELL	83	93¢	$77	0x7092a8…
07-31 08:01:41	situational awareness raises new capital by august 31 20260730182353379	No	BUY	3	65¢	$2	0x66c6ee…
07-31 07:50:12	another frontier math problem solved by september 30 2026 20260728180257858	No	BUY	20	57¢	$11	0x8d3883…
07-31 07:44:48	will trump say moscow in august 20260728181450068	No	BUY	18	64¢	$12	0xa82b8e…
07-31 07:38:26	untitled market 1 20260730180943686	Yes	BUY	1	12¢	$0	0x09dbfd…
07-31 07:14:17	will thom tillis vote yea on the clarity act 20260729190926671	Yes	BUY	73	90¢	$66	0x904c6a…
07-31 07:11:32	will lisa blunt rochester vote yea on the clarity act 20260729190926664	No	BUY	0	64¢	$0	0x1d0855…
07-31 07:08:09	situational awareness raises new capital by august 31 20260730182353379	Yes	BUY	80	33¢	$26	0x6fab76…
07-31 06:57:20	will thom tillis vote yea on the clarity act 20260729190926671	No	BUY	73	52¢	$38	0x9c888c…
07-31 06:45:09	untitled market 1 20260730180943686	No	BUY	73	91¢	$66	0x3cdc27…
07-31 06:44:38	situational awareness announces fund wind down by december 31 2026 20260730183020992	No	BUY	153	86¢	$132	0x68de7e…
07-31 06:44:03	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 21 2026	Yes	BUY	21	79¢	$17	0xc1c11a…
07-31 06:43:33	situational awareness announces fund wind down by december 31 2026 20260730183020992	Yes	BUY	110	28¢	$31	0x6e7823…
07-31 06:35:26	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 21 2026	Yes	BUY	79	79¢	$62	0x943606…
07-31 06:13:44	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 14 2026	Yes	BUY	152	68¢	$103	0x718c25…
07-31 05:59:38	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 14 2026	No	BUY	152	38¢	$58	0xf79f34…
07-31 03:11:39	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 14 2026	Yes	BUY	107	42¢	$45	0xbd2263…
07-31 02:36:29	will gas hit 3pt70 low by august 31 20260728213741798	No	BUY	6	52¢	$3	0x448457…
07-31 02:19:21	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 14 2026	No	BUY	177	58¢	$103	0x812b5b…
07-31 02:12:14	situational awareness raises new capital by august 31 20260730182353379	No	BUY	156	72¢	$112	0xd9423a…
07-31 02:12:11	situational awareness raises new capital by august 31 20260730182353379	No	BUY	20	72¢	$14	0x2f36d2…
07-31 00:37:20	will a hurricane make landfall in the us in august 20260728182410863	No	BUY	61	86¢	$52	0x8faefb…
07-31 00:28:48	situational awareness announces fund wind down by december 31 2026 20260730183020992	No	BUY	10	70¢	$7	0xbdea43…
07-31 00:28:26	situational awareness announces fund wind down by december 31 2026 20260730183020992	No	BUY	20	70¢	$14	0xb0dbf8…
07-31 00:03:02	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	No	BUY	365	44¢	$161	0x90f3de…
07-31 00:01:03	situational awareness raises new capital by august 31 20260730182353379	Yes	BUY	176	26¢	$46	0x0cadeb…
07-30 23:59:15	GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	76	80¢	$61	0x683474…
07-30 23:52:24	GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	17	80¢	$14	0xd01e68…
07-30 23:32:35	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 14 2026	Yes	BUY	70	43¢	$30	0xef58a0…
07-30 23:32:09	GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	BUY	153	22¢	$34	0x4231f6…
07-30 23:31:59	situational awareness raises new capital by august 31 20260730182353379	No	BUY	224	81¢	$181	0x0cface…
07-30 23:28:08	situational awareness raises new capital by august 31 20260730182353379	Yes	BUY	224	55¢	$123	0xd029cb…
07-30 22:43:32	GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	150	79¢	$118	0xaae5b0…
07-30 22:29:56	will over 50 senators vote for the clarity act 20260729193533307	Yes	BUY	29	48¢	$14	0xe50446…
07-30 22:27:41	untitled market 1 20260730180943686	Yes	BUY	73	22¢	$16	0x762a51…
07-30 22:15:47	GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	BUY	151	22¢	$33	0xfce44e…
07-30 22:13:15	situational awareness announces fund wind down by december 31 2026 20260730183020992	No	BUY	78	66¢	$51	0x07ed74…
07-30 22:13:12	situational awareness announces fund wind down by december 31 2026 20260730183020992	Yes	BUY	86	31¢	$27	0x8a28b4…
07-30 22:11:56	untitled market 1 20260730180943686	No	BUY	36	77¢	$28	0x128882…
07-30 22:11:54	untitled market 1 20260730180943686	No	BUY	86	77¢	$67	0xa0e402…
07-30 22:11:51	untitled market 1 20260730180943686	Yes	BUY	123	20¢	$25	0x8cef97…
07-30 22:10:41	will olivia rodrigo perform at the 2027 big game halftime show 486	Yes	BUY	15	15¢	$2	0x1aade6…
07-30 22:07:57	situational awareness announces fund wind down by december 31 2026 20260730183020992	No	BUY	5	67¢	$3	0xbcb71f…
07-30 22:06:38	will super typhoon dolphin hit japan 20260730150614391	No	BUY	9	52¢	$5	0x4f69f4…
07-30 21:44:23	situational awareness raises new capital by august 31 20260730182353379	No	BUY	228	63¢	$144	0x49a2e1…
07-30 21:42:20	situational awareness raises new capital by august 31 20260730182353379	Yes	BUY	228	58¢	$132	0x890651…
07-30 21:41:05	untitled market 1 20260730180943686	No	BUY	73	86¢	$63	0x87f123…
07-30 21:40:36	situational awareness announces fund wind down by december 31 2026 20260730183020992	No	BUY	124	78¢	$97	0xc4d0bd…
07-30 21:37:26	situational awareness announces fund wind down by december 31 2026 20260730183020992	Yes	BUY	124	43¢	$53	0x25496f…
07-30 21:37:23	untitled market 1 20260730180943686	Yes	BUY	73	28¢	$20	0x7613b1…
07-30 21:30:06	situational awareness announces fund wind down by december 31 2026 20260730183020992	No	BUY	73	77¢	$56	0x12aad2…
07-30 21:26:24	situational awareness announces fund wind down by december 31 2026 20260730183020992	Yes	BUY	73	48¢	$35	0xcbff37…
07-30 21:18:47	will super typhoon dolphin hit japan 20260730150614391	No	BUY	0	52¢	$0	0x58f3cb…
07-30 21:18:47	will super typhoon dolphin hit japan 20260730150614391	No	BUY	0	52¢	$0	0x583a8f…
07-30 21:17:08	GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	51	79¢	$40	0xb7d4cc…
07-30 21:15:02	GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	100	81¢	$81	0xdb984f…
07-30 21:12:18	situational awareness announces fund wind down by december 31 2026 20260730183020992	No	BUY	122	76¢	$93	0xd40174…
07-30 21:11:21	will over 50 senators vote for the clarity act 20260729193533307	Yes	BUY	9	48¢	$4	0x900c1f…
07-30 21:08:50	situational awareness announces fund wind down by december 31 2026 20260730183020992	Yes	BUY	122	46¢	$56	0x0e4e3a…
07-30 21:05:24	untitled market 1 20260730180943686	Yes	BUY	123	22¢	$27	0x77089d…
07-30 21:04:32	will super typhoon dolphin hit japan 20260730150614391	No	BUY	0	52¢	$0	0xebf325…
07-30 21:04:32	will super typhoon dolphin hit japan 20260730150614391	No	BUY	0	52¢	$0	0x93e230…
07-30 20:59:35	untitled market 1 20260730180943686	No	BUY	123	85¢	$105	0x00746b…
07-30 20:52:03	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 14 2026	Yes	BUY	58	43¢	$25	0xf83fe4…
07-30 20:47:42	will super typhoon dolphin hit japan 20260730150614391	No	BUY	26	52¢	$13	0xfc5df7…
07-30 20:41:53	will over 50 senators vote for the clarity act 20260729193533307	No	BUY	100	48¢	$48	0xdcce26…
07-30 20:41:45	untitled market 1 20260730180943686	Yes	BUY	73	23¢	$17	0xb8371f…
07-30 20:41:00	untitled market 1 20260730180943686	No	BUY	73	84¢	$61	0x5c06c0…
07-30 20:40:08	situational awareness announces fund wind down by december 31 2026 20260730183020992	Yes	BUY	73	38¢	$28	0x9aa742…
07-30 20:37:51	situational awareness announces fund wind down by december 31 2026 20260730183020992	No	BUY	43	73¢	$32	0xbb80d3…
07-30 20:37:51	iran successfully targets shipping on august 24 2026 20260729163314544	No	BUY	20	82¢	$16	0x6305a2…
07-30 20:29:51	will super typhoon dolphin hit japan 20260730150614391	No	BUY	0	52¢	$0	0xf8f20e…
07-30 20:29:51	will super typhoon dolphin hit japan 20260730150614391	No	BUY	0	52¢	$0	0x7b9ab3…
07-30 20:29:35	situational awareness announces fund wind down by december 31 2026 20260730183020992	No	BUY	20	73¢	$15	0x58fa6b…
07-30 20:29:32	situational awareness announces fund wind down by december 31 2026 20260730183020992	No	BUY	10	73¢	$7	0xd858a6…
07-30 20:28:57	situational awareness announces fund wind down by december 31 2026 20260730183020992	No	BUY	73	77¢	$56	0xe90938…
07-30 20:25:05	situational awareness raises new capital by august 31 20260730182353379	Yes	BUY	127	65¢	$83	0xf9d3ac…
07-30 20:23:30	situational awareness raises new capital by august 31 20260730182353379	No	BUY	127	51¢	$65	0x701f64…
07-30 20:23:02	will super typhoon dolphin hit japan 20260730150614391	No	BUY	10	44¢	$4	0xd1b748…
07-30 20:18:00	situational awareness announces fund wind down by december 31 2026 20260730183020992	Yes	BUY	73	39¢	$28	0x992036…
07-30 19:52:32	will gas hit 3pt70 low by august 31 20260728213741798	Yes	BUY	73	45¢	$33	0x745ac8…
07-30 19:40:59	will trump say trump strait or strait of trump in august 20260728182325271	Yes	BUY	73	45¢	$33	0x9d7b40…
07-30 19:24:59	will super typhoon dolphin hit japan 20260730150614391	Yes	BUY	123	63¢	$77	0x187d34…