Formal-Innocent — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$18

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

99.3%

Resolved

293

Trades

294

lifetime

Volume

$3.58K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$12

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-08

last 11-06 09:20

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 235 days

Categories

Other

97% 100% +$5

Politics

3% 80% -$24

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

69 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on May 14?	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	05-14 07:21
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on May 13?	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	05-13 05:23
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	1	$24	25	+25	No	-$24	05-15 05:14
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 35°C on May 12?	1	$24	24	+24	Yes	+$0	05-12 09:59
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on May 11?	1	$24	24	+24	Yes	+$0	05-12 03:46
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on May 11?	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	05-11 16:49
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C or higher on May 11?	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	05-11 06:09
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on May 10?	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	05-10 05:15
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on May 9?	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	05-09 06:33
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 32°C on May 8?	1	$24	24	+24	Yes	+$0	05-08 10:29
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on May 8?	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	05-08 05:23
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 29°C on May 8?	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	05-08 01:30
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 33°C on May 7?	1	$24	24	+24	Yes	+$0	05-07 10:19
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on May 6?	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	05-07 01:34
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on May 6?	1	$24	24	+24	Yes	+$0	05-06 12:17
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May 5?	1	$24	24	+24	Yes	+$0	05-06 04:12
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on May 5?	1	$24	24	+24	Yes	+$0	05-05 11:19
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on May 4?	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	05-05 02:30
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C on May 4?	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	05-04 05:48
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 3?	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	05-03 12:25
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on May 2?	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	05-02 04:21
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	1	$23	24	+24	No	+$1	04-12 02:18
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	1	$23	23	+23	No	+$0	04-08 10:13
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 7th 659	1	$23	23	+23	No	+$0	04-07 06:52
highest temperature in shenzhen on april 6 2026 29c	1	$23	23	+23	Yes	+$0	04-06 09:39
highest temperature in beijing on april 5 2026 21c	1	$23	23	+23	Yes	+$0	04-05 08:52
highest temperature in lucknow on april 4 2026 35c	1	$23	23	+23	Yes	+$0	04-04 13:33
highest temperature in shenzhen on april 3 2026 29c	1	$23	23	+23	Yes	+$0	04-03 12:26
highest temperature in los angeles on april 2 2026 70 71f	1	$22	23	+23	No	+$0	04-03 02:13
highest temperature in shenzhen on april 2 2026 27c	1	$22	22	+22	Yes	+$0	04-02 14:31

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-06 09:20:19	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on November 6?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x375341…
11-04 13:05:37	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on November 4?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x051cba…
11-03 17:18:18	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on November 3?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xd5e8fc…
11-02 06:28:22	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on November 2?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x7f0fbb…
10-31 15:57:04	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on October 31?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x434efe…
10-30 14:57:28	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x6fedc3…
10-29 17:54:05	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 17°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xbe1da6…
10-29 09:30:07	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 18°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x68748a…
10-28 07:57:37	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on October 28?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x5ec712…
10-27 09:21:53	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x3f1ab1…
10-26 09:42:48	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on October 26?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x9f6171…
10-24 11:50:33	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on October 24?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xe85cd7…
10-22 10:29:15	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on October 22?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x2f225d…
10-20 07:44:32	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on October 20?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x386f5f…
10-19 09:29:23	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on October 19?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xa2d736…
10-18 10:17:18	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on October 18?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x6f185d…
10-17 15:44:06	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on October 17?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xa02716…
10-16 10:06:18	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on October 16?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xefe0b0…
10-15 13:38:31	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on October 15?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xe37829…
10-14 10:12:05	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on October 14?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x536d0a…
10-13 10:30:11	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 41°C or higher on October 13?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x9c0985…
10-12 09:34:43	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on October 12?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xb7b02a…
10-11 09:15:58	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on October 11?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xc86eb2…
10-08 12:31:44	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on October 8?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xd760a9…
10-07 15:43:55	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on October 7?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x59e1ae…
10-06 15:08:15	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on October 6?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xc6bf2d…
10-05 06:27:49	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C or below on October 5?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xaf492b…
10-03 09:10:47	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on October 3?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x9ff6b9…
10-02 13:29:17	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on October 2?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xa7686d…
10-01 09:27:03	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on October 1?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x30f77c…
09-30 14:21:11	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on September 30?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xd9637f…
09-30 03:29:23	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on September 30?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xc9bac2…
09-28 09:59:51	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on September 28?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xb4f661…
09-27 09:08:14	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on September 27?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xe34f67…
09-25 16:39:57	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on September 25?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x5ef169…
09-24 08:50:47	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on September 24?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x1e1b8b…
09-23 10:19:38	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on September 23?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x35d6c8…
09-22 08:36:43	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on September 22?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xe7beff…
09-21 09:48:23	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on September 21?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xb2735d…
09-20 05:57:04	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on September 20?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xabbf37…
09-19 09:00:04	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on September 19?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x7c20d5…
09-18 07:47:48	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on September 18?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xd7002d…
09-17 04:14:06	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 20°C or below on September 17?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x5874a2…
09-16 08:57:39	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on September 16?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x225a65…
09-15 10:24:03	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on September 15?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x715fa3…
09-14 09:19:30	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on September 14?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x37c87b…
09-13 03:37:00	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on September 13?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x6fcc47…
09-11 09:25:21	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on September 11?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xc070ae…
09-10 08:46:37	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on September 10?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xb77319…
09-09 02:40:49	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 27°C on September 9?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xf81371…
09-08 06:19:01	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on September 8?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x193f8d…
09-07 08:47:33	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C or below on September 7?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xbb49fb…
09-06 11:10:16	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on September 6?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x499369…
09-05 01:23:12	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on September 5?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x3d7e55…
09-04 01:02:16	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on September 3?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xcbf2d0…
09-02 07:57:15	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on September 2?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x4fe63b…
08-30 14:10:07	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on August 30?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x73f1b1…
08-29 09:45:25	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on August 29?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x314d93…
08-28 08:53:54	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 28°C on August 28?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xb46689…
08-27 09:09:55	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on August 27?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xd00518…
08-26 08:47:45	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on August 26?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xf6e12c…
08-25 09:44:13	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on August 25?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xbca258…
08-24 14:07:37	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on August 24?	Yes	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0x04ac99…
08-23 15:07:55	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C on August 23?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xdde5fe…
08-22 09:07:10	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C or higher on August 22?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x37fb6b…
08-21 08:31:49	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 35°C on August 21?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x1b0c4f…
08-20 09:14:43	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on August 20?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xd3c953…
08-18 08:32:36	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on August 18?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x838025…
08-17 08:21:58	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on August 17?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x1bb549…
08-16 14:25:34	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on August 16?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x54f01b…
08-15 10:07:30	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on August 15?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xf8a339…
08-14 06:59:13	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on August 14?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xb425b1…
08-13 09:04:49	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on August 13?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xdac959…
08-12 09:14:06	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 39°C on August 12?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x40009c…
08-11 07:04:00	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 34°C on August 11?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xc94ec3…
08-10 08:15:07	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 34°C on August 10?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x4ceb12…
08-09 06:17:58	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 9?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x99d3b3…
08-08 07:49:42	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on August 8?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xacbbe7…
08-07 08:23:45	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on August 7?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x5fd0dc…
08-06 07:42:42	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on August 6?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xb6753a…
08-05 08:05:23	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on August 5?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xaac94a…
08-04 08:28:41	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on August 4?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xf80073…
08-03 07:45:59	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C or higher on August 3?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x9ac657…
08-02 06:35:45	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on August 2?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x70ce54…
08-01 07:17:05	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 40°C on August 1?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x3b8a76…
07-31 14:14:18	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 42°C on July 31?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xde33c6…
07-30 07:05:47	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on July 30?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x5a6795…
07-29 07:16:20	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 33°C on July 29?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xd7b20b…
07-28 07:10:16	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 35°C on July 28?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xfbb833…
07-27 09:39:28	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on July 27?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xb43964…
07-26 08:09:06	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on July 26?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x24ed33…
07-25 09:12:34	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C on July 25?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x3efef7…
07-24 13:36:07	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on July 24?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x0a722f…
07-23 08:29:12	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on July 23?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xaddda0…
07-22 02:11:58	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 98-99°F on July 21?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x73d378…
07-21 09:22:19	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on July 21?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xafbacb…
07-21 00:23:46	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on July 20?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xaa6710…
07-20 08:11:28	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on July 20?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xfb137b…
07-18 23:29:10	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on July 18?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$7	0x0f3d90…
07-18 05:14:52	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 39°C on July 18?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xa19702…