Misty-Urn — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$525

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

51.0%

Resolved

5,039

Trades

5,915

lifetime

Volume

$15.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-14

last 09-20 16:20

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 131 days

Categories

Crypto

100% 51% -$516

Politics

0% 100% +$0

Other

0% 0% -$9

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

40 active days in 12wk • peak 117 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
ethereum up or down march 17 2026 10pm et	5	$31	40	19	+20	Up	+$11	03-18 02:00
ethereum up or down march 21 2026 8pm et	3	$29	20	20	+0	Up	+$11	03-22 01:45
SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-08 12:15 UTC	7	$23	35	0	+35	Down	+$12	08-08 12:19
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-27 08:15 UTC	8	$21	35	0	+35	Up	-$21	08-27 08:22
XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-20 23:15 UTC	18	$20	80	0	+80	Up	-$20	08-20 23:32
bitcoin up or down march 17 2026 10pm et	4	$20	40	0	+40	Up	-$20	03-18 01:49
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-27 09:00 UTC	13	$16	30	0	+30	Up	-$16	08-27 09:07
xrp up or down march 22 2026 7am et	2	$14	10	10	+0	Up	+$5	03-22 13:10
bitcoin up or down march 21 2026 8pm et	2	$14	10	10	+0	Up	+$5	03-22 01:45
SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-27 08:15 UTC	5	$14	25	0	+25	Up	-$14	08-27 08:20
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-27 09:30 UTC	5	$14	25	0	+25	Down	+$11	08-27 09:30
XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-27 09:00 UTC	5	$12	20	0	+20	Up	-$12	08-27 09:05
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-20 22:00 UTC	3	$12	15	0	+15	Down	+$3	08-20 22:08
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-27 09:15 UTC	4	$12	20	0	+20	Up	-$12	08-27 09:16
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-27 08:45 UTC	5	$11	20	0	+20	Down	+$9	08-27 08:47
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-20 00:45 UTC	3	$10	15	0	+15	Down	+$4	08-20 00:53
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	1	$10	10	0	+10	Yes	+$0	05-11 01:12
bnb up or down march 16 2026 6am et	4	$10	10	10	+0	Up	-$9	03-16 10:22
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-13 05:15 UTC	3	$9	15	0	+15	Up	-$9	08-13 05:23
ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-21 23:05 UTC	2	$9	20	0	+20	Down	-$9	03-21 23:06
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-19 08:45 UTC	5	$9	15	0	+15	Down	+$6	08-19 08:53
ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-22 00:05 UTC	4	$8	19	0	+19	Up	+$10	03-22 00:05
XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-20 23:45 UTC	4	$8	20	0	+20	Up	-$8	08-20 23:53
SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-27 08:30 UTC	4	$8	15	0	+15	Up	-$8	08-27 08:37
XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-27 09:15 UTC	4	$8	15	0	+15	Up	-$8	08-27 09:16
XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-13 05:00 UTC	4	$8	15	0	+15	Up	-$8	08-13 05:09
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-21 23:55 UTC	2	$8	18	0	+18	Down	-$8	03-21 23:55
XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-08 13:30 UTC	3	$8	15	0	+15	Up	-$8	08-08 13:40
XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-27 08:30 UTC	4	$8	15	0	+15	Up	-$8	08-27 08:37
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	2	$7	5	5	+0	Up	+$2	05-16 15:05

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-20 16:20:57	Solana Up or Down - September 20, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0x1b74c4…
09-20 16:15:25	XRP Up or Down - September 20, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0x9e3e5e…
09-20 16:04:07	Solana Up or Down - September 20, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0x8bd707…
09-20 16:04:03	Ethereum Up or Down - September 20, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	83¢	$4	0xa7d53c…
09-20 16:01:15	XRP Up or Down - September 20, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	70¢	$4	0x1319c7…
09-20 15:47:07	XRP Up or Down - September 20, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0x8267ec…
09-20 15:45:27	Solana Up or Down - September 20, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0x9930a8…
09-20 13:46:49	Ethereum Up or Down - September 20, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0x20af1f…
09-20 13:21:52	Ethereum Up or Down - September 20, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	83¢	$4	0x865fdb…
09-20 12:16:43	Ethereum Up or Down - September 20, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0x9372ef…
09-20 12:15:24	Solana Up or Down - September 20, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0x38ce42…
09-20 12:03:39	Ethereum Up or Down - September 20, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0xc7189a…
09-20 12:02:07	Solana Up or Down - September 20, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0x79596f…
09-20 11:45:22	Solana Up or Down - September 20, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0xb08986…
09-20 10:04:12	XRP Up or Down - September 20, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0x6da96e…
09-20 09:45:43	Ethereum Up or Down - September 20, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0x32c57d…
09-20 09:45:24	XRP Up or Down - September 20, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	0	53¢	$0	0x83fc95…
09-20 07:32:10	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-20 07:30 UTC	Down	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0xeb38a3…
09-20 07:30:31	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-20 07:30 UTC	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x5c477a…
09-20 00:18:10	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-20 00:15 UTC	Down	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0x8ea54b…
09-19 23:48:39	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-19 23:45 UTC	Down	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0xa8e826…
09-19 23:48:27	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-19 23:45 UTC	Down	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0x7d871d…
09-19 23:31:24	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-19 23:30 UTC	Down	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0x3dff39…
09-19 23:19:39	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-19 23:15 UTC	Down	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0x48382d…
09-19 23:18:19	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-19 23:15 UTC	Down	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0x397336…
09-19 20:46:08	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-19 20:45 UTC	Down	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0x6565d9…
09-19 16:01:05	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-19 16:00 UTC	Down	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0xbd09b0…
09-19 15:46:06	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-19 15:45 UTC	Down	BUY	5	70¢	$4	0x15af2c…
09-19 15:21:57	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-19 15:15 UTC	Down	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0xa39fd7…
09-19 15:18:36	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-19 15:15 UTC	Down	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0x6c14b8…
09-19 14:48:14	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-19 14:45 UTC	Down	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0xd22f6a…
09-19 14:47:59	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-19 14:45 UTC	Down	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0x65e0bf…
09-19 14:31:17	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-19 14:30 UTC	Down	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0x572482…
09-19 14:31:09	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-19 14:30 UTC	Down	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0x770a80…
09-19 14:30:26	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-19 14:30 UTC	Down	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x1272fa…
09-19 13:31:15	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-19 13:30 UTC	Down	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0xdf42af…
09-19 13:00:45	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-19 13:00 UTC	Down	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0x77f3da…
09-19 12:45:27	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-19 12:45 UTC	Down	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0xf9da9d…
09-19 12:15:24	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-19 12:15 UTC	Down	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0x9bdf90…
09-19 12:00:36	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-19 12:00 UTC	Down	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0x59919e…
09-19 11:45:26	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-19 11:45 UTC	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x722ace…
09-19 11:31:29	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-19 11:30 UTC	Down	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0x2f84e5…
09-19 08:16:09	Ethereum Up or Down - September 19, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	69¢	$3	0x8cb605…
09-19 07:21:57	Ethereum Up or Down - September 19, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0x888720…
09-19 06:53:40	Ethereum Up or Down - September 19, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	66¢	$3	0x481b86…
09-19 06:00:28	XRP Up or Down - September 19, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0x9c8ebb…
09-19 05:46:09	XRP Up or Down - September 19, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	66¢	$3	0xf4ec29…
09-19 05:18:36	XRP Up or Down - September 19, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0xcdfc04…
09-19 04:31:36	Ethereum Up or Down - September 19, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0xe31a14…
09-19 04:21:54	XRP Up or Down - September 19, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0x1b2aa7…
09-19 04:00:46	XRP Up or Down - September 19, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0xfd7a26…
09-19 03:45:49	Ethereum Up or Down - September 18, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0x3d12a3…
09-19 03:16:19	Ethereum Up or Down - September 18, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	67¢	$3	0x91b6c8…
09-19 03:15:46	Solana Up or Down - September 18, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0x8d85c1…
09-19 03:15:31	XRP Up or Down - September 18, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x73208a…
09-19 03:00:43	Solana Up or Down - September 18, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0xff6096…
09-19 03:00:39	XRP Up or Down - September 18, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0x37b142…
09-19 02:17:00	Solana Up or Down - September 18, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	70¢	$4	0x9b66bd…
09-19 02:00:55	XRP Up or Down - September 18, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x286e71…
09-19 01:18:27	Solana Up or Down - September 18, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	70¢	$4	0x3a1178…
09-19 01:03:25	XRP Up or Down - September 18, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	67¢	$3	0x916391…
09-19 01:00:28	Solana Up or Down - September 18, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0x674a0a…
09-19 01:00:22	Ethereum Up or Down - September 18, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0xe53ede…
09-19 00:50:15	Solana Up or Down - September 18, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0x37f64c…
09-19 00:21:33	XRP Up or Down - September 18, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x76265c…
09-18 21:15:19	Ethereum Up or Down - September 18, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	68¢	$3	0xc76fd5…
09-18 20:24:03	Ethereum Up or Down - September 18, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	70¢	$4	0x674a0d…
09-18 20:16:40	XRP Up or Down - September 18, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0xfc3ef5…
09-18 20:16:09	Solana Up or Down - September 18, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x96bce5…
09-18 20:02:37	XRP Up or Down - September 18, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0x287a25…
09-18 20:02:25	Solana Up or Down - September 18, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0xcfa10a…
09-18 19:45:19	Ethereum Up or Down - September 18, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0x57fe6f…
09-18 19:30:55	Solana Up or Down - September 18, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	69¢	$3	0x8ea2fe…
09-18 19:30:34	XRP Up or Down - September 18, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0x4646c5…
09-18 19:30:22	Ethereum Up or Down - September 18, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0xf8dfd4…
09-18 19:16:57	XRP Up or Down - September 18, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0xcd5315…
09-18 18:50:10	XRP Up or Down - September 18, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0x16868b…
09-18 18:30:51	Ethereum Up or Down - September 18, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0x102194…
09-18 18:30:31	XRP Up or Down - September 18, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0xbd96a9…
09-18 18:15:48	Ethereum Up or Down - September 18, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x16f471…
09-18 18:06:09	Solana Up or Down - September 18, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0x1a3fb6…
09-18 18:01:18	XRP Up or Down - September 18, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0x39cb7e…
09-18 18:00:55	Ethereum Up or Down - September 18, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0x717802…
09-18 17:46:18	XRP Up or Down - September 18, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0x543e4e…
09-18 17:45:19	Solana Up or Down - September 18, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0xb4d52d…
09-18 17:30:21	XRP Up or Down - September 18, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x647f93…
09-18 17:23:36	Solana Up or Down - September 18, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0x65dff8…
09-18 17:00:31	Solana Up or Down - September 18, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0xcba802…
09-18 17:00:16	Ethereum Up or Down - September 18, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0xa92462…
09-18 16:45:39	Ethereum Up or Down - September 18, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0x689803…
09-18 16:45:21	Solana Up or Down - September 18, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0xcdb913…
09-18 16:30:28	Solana Up or Down - September 18, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x53997c…
09-18 16:15:19	Ethereum Up or Down - September 18, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0xcc5f11…
09-18 16:01:16	Solana Up or Down - September 18, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xa915a3…
09-18 15:37:49	XRP Up or Down - September 18, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0x2dce89…
09-18 15:30:31	Ethereum Up or Down - September 18, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0xeaeac4…
09-18 15:30:24	Solana Up or Down - September 18, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0x97e05f…
09-18 15:20:24	XRP Up or Down - September 18, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0xce1875…
09-18 15:01:22	Solana Up or Down - September 18, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0x71fadf…
09-18 15:00:40	Ethereum Up or Down - September 18, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0xa83c97…