Failing-Essence — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$295

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

55.4%

Resolved

215

Trades

443

lifetime

Volume

$8.18K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$18

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-28

last 10-20 14:07

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 33 days

Categories

Crypto

92% 25% -$262

Politics

7% 25% -$25

Other

1% 44% -$8

Sports

0% 0% -$2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

4 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-09 15:30 UTC	2	$393	476	473	+3	Down	+$196	03-09 15:32
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-09 14:25 UTC	4	$377	340	335	+5	Up	+$118	03-09 14:30
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-10 06:25 UTC	5	$329	25,836	0	+25,836	Up	-$329	03-10 06:28
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-10 17:10 UTC	4	$323	306	267	+39	Down	+$116	03-10 17:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	3	$304	389	389	+0	Down	+$204	06-02 01:04
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-10 15:15 UTC	2	$284	372	368	+4	Up	+$88	03-10 15:18
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-09 15:40 UTC	3	$275	267	197	+70	Down	+$59	03-09 15:44
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-09 14:20 UTC	2	$263	197	194	+3	Up	+$66	03-09 14:24
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-10 17:00 UTC	2	$260	259	256	+4	Down	+$60	03-10 17:03
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-09 19:45 UTC	2	$232	213	210	+3	Down	+$32	03-09 19:48
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-09 19:05 UTC	2	$149	101	99	+2	Up	+$50	03-09 19:10
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-11 16:00 UTC	4	$141	623	18	+604	Up	-$118	03-11 16:03
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-10 15:40 UTC	4	$121	111	111	+0	Down	+$99	03-10 15:45
will iran close its airspace by june 14 20260609184136052	5	$114	319	202	+117	No	-$16	06-14 19:57
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-09 19:30 UTC	1	$111	556	0	+556	Down	-$111	03-09 19:33
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-11 15:50 UTC	13	$111	270	0	+270	Up	-$111	03-11 15:50
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-08 17:20 UTC	2	$102	100	100	+0	Up	+$96	03-08 17:25
bitcoin above 76k on april 17	3	$101	142	68	+74	Yes	-$28	04-17 12:49
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-09 17:45 UTC	1	$100	250	0	+250	Up	-$100	03-09 17:46
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-09 19:35 UTC	1	$100	1,009	0	+1,009	Down	-$100	03-09 19:37
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-10 16:05 UTC	1	$100	808	0	+808	Down	-$100	03-10 16:06
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-10 16:00 UTC	1	$100	511	0	+511	Down	-$100	03-10 16:02
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-09 15:45 UTC	1	$100	541	0	+541	Up	-$100	03-09 15:46
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-10 06:15 UTC	1	$100	465	0	+465	Down	-$100	03-10 06:17
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-09 15:55 UTC	1	$100	845	0	+845	Down	+$745	03-09 15:56
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-11 07:30 UTC	1	$100	227	0	+227	Down	-$100	03-11 07:30
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-10 06:20 UTC	1	$100	164	0	+164	Up	-$100	03-10 06:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	4	$95	130	130	+0	Down	-$5	06-02 10:44
israel strike on yemen by march 31 2026	2	$94	86	86	+0	No	+$34	03-29 22:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	5	$92	337	60	+277	Down	-$10	06-02 01:18

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-20 14:07:48	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 20?	No	BUY	77	11¢	$8	0xed2e6b…
10-19 21:49:03	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 20?	No	BUY	223	4¢	$10	0xbcda4e…
09-16 08:30:42	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	38	13¢	$5	0xbccfa1…
09-16 08:30:19	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	125	1¢	$1	0xa60ab6…
09-15 10:56:31	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	36	11¢	$4	0x7d2269…
09-15 10:51:39	BNB Up or Down - September 15, 6AM ET	Down	BUY	150	3¢	$5	0xbded66…
06-14 19:57:25	will iran close its airspace by june 14 20260609184136052	Yes	BUY	117	26¢	$30	0x178a20…
06-14 18:11:22	will iran close its airspace by june 14 20260609184136052	Yes	SELL	116	26¢	$30	0x3f1cb0…
06-14 17:58:57	will iran close its airspace by june 14 20260609184136052	Yes	BUY	116	20¢	$23	0x023a12…
06-14 17:04:00	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 15 20260607232556275 193	Yes	SELL	241	2¢	$4	0xf89d27…
06-14 17:02:57	will iran close its airspace by june 14 20260609184136052	Yes	SELL	86	22¢	$19	0x76fb35…
06-14 13:36:25	will iran close its airspace by june 14 20260609184136052	Yes	BUY	86	14¢	$12	0x17f0bc…
06-12 16:31:57	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 15 20260607232556275 193	Yes	BUY	241	2¢	$6	0x4b7109…
06-12 16:31:42	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 12 20260607232556274	Yes	SELL	933	1¢	$6	0xb07ecd…
06-12 00:57:24	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 12 20260607232556274	Yes	BUY	933	2¢	$14	0x211cea…
06-12 00:56:31	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 12 20260607232556274	Yes	SELL	300	1¢	$4	0x4f4213…
06-11 17:39:15	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 12 20260607232556274	Yes	BUY	300	3¢	$8	0x83fdb4…
06-10 11:35:18	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 12 20260607232556274	Yes	SELL	135	6¢	$8	0x47dc90…
06-09 20:49:39	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 12 20260607232556274	Yes	BUY	135	10¢	$13	0x6a955a…
06-02 11:38:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Down	BUY	146	16¢	$23	0x8fa5b2…
06-02 11:37:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Down	BUY	79	32¢	$25	0x320d13…
06-02 11:33:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	Up	BUY	136	18¢	$25	0x45a8f3…
06-02 10:51:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Down	BUY	179	14¢	$25	0x8f6dd8…
06-02 10:45:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Down	BUY	74	34¢	$25	0x1303ef…
06-02 10:44:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Up	SELL	86	18¢	$16	0xc813cd…
06-02 10:43:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Up	BUY	86	29¢	$25	0x845833…
06-02 10:42:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Down	SELL	44	68¢	$30	0x79a35e…
06-02 10:41:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Down	BUY	44	57¢	$25	0x761640…
06-02 10:37:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Up	BUY	104	24¢	$25	0x4b325f…
06-02 10:27:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Down	BUY	22	23¢	$5	0xba12fa…
06-02 01:42:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Down	BUY	166	15¢	$25	0x2ec0dd…
06-02 01:24:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Up	BUY	106	24¢	$25	0x7c97b3…
06-02 01:18:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Up	BUY	277	9¢	$25	0xf57d35…
06-02 01:17:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Up	SELL	7	10¢	$1	0x5ee30d…
06-02 01:16:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Up	BUY	7	11¢	$1	0x780ec9…
06-02 01:16:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Down	SELL	53	75¢	$40	0x9e513f…
06-02 01:15:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Down	BUY	53	47¢	$25	0x7e9063…
06-02 01:13:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Down	SELL	527	1¢	$5	0xd5d1cf…
06-02 01:12:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Down	BUY	527	5¢	$25	0xe48565…
06-02 01:04:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Down	SELL	389	65¢	$254	0x7e700a…
06-02 01:03:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Down	BUY	322	8¢	$25	0x609b57…
06-02 01:01:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Down	BUY	68	37¢	$25	0x9e1a71…
06-02 00:59:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	8	64¢	$5	0x32210b…
06-02 00:57:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0x32022b…
06-02 00:33:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Down	SELL	42	80¢	$33	0x74bbc7…
06-02 00:31:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Down	BUY	42	12¢	$5	0x38d317…
06-02 00:25:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET	Up	BUY	71	7¢	$5	0x398567…
05-31 01:39:20	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	51	98¢	$50	0x52b264…
05-28 16:40:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Down	BUY	16	31¢	$5	0xcb65ab…
05-28 16:33:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Down	SELL	52	1¢	$1	0x11011f…
05-28 16:33:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Down	SELL	10	5¢	$0	0x2a6627…
05-28 16:33:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Down	BUY	62	8¢	$5	0x785d07…
05-28 09:50:11	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 28?	No	SELL	89	3¢	$2	0xae7d7d…
05-28 08:32:49	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 28?	No	BUY	89	8¢	$7	0x8c6910…
05-24 14:45:15	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	51	64¢	$33	0x71b34a…
05-11 10:43:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Down	BUY	28	11¢	$3	0x976bec…
05-11 10:43:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Down	BUY	4	11¢	$0	0xf0f46b…
05-11 10:43:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Down	BUY	17	11¢	$2	0xeb69c2…
05-11 08:26:09	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	BUY	1,250	1¢	$10	0xb3ff3f…
05-05 11:22:56	Will Trump visit China by May 31?	No	BUY	138	8¢	$11	0xc8603f…
05-04 14:09:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xa1a4ba…
05-04 14:07:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Up	SELL	2	58¢	$1	0xe60d0c…
05-04 14:06:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Up	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0xd8b419…
05-04 14:06:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	SELL	2	55¢	$1	0xd47a72…
05-04 14:05:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x972da3…
05-04 14:03:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Up	BUY	77	13¢	$10	0x394d27…
05-04 14:02:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Down	SELL	19	59¢	$11	0xe92ead…
05-04 14:01:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Down	BUY	19	53¢	$10	0x2102a6…
05-04 13:56:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Down	BUY	34	29¢	$10	0x1cbb15…
05-04 13:14:50	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	BUY	56	18¢	$10	0x92f00a…
05-01 14:42:32	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 1?	No	BUY	45	38¢	$17	0x465ed6…
05-01 14:33:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Down	SELL	22	54¢	$12	0x3ef4cc…
05-01 14:32:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Down	BUY	22	45¢	$10	0x660a32…
05-01 14:32:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Up	SELL	34	47¢	$16	0x18f11e…
05-01 14:31:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Up	BUY	34	29¢	$10	0xe6f0c9…
05-01 14:27:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Up	BUY	125	8¢	$10	0xda8e16…
05-01 13:43:46	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 1?	No	SELL	78	30¢	$24	0x22ad8b…
05-01 13:34:36	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 1?	No	BUY	78	21¢	$16	0xf3ec4f…
05-01 10:16:22	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	165	5¢	$8	0x6e2b85…
05-01 10:02:02	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	165	5¢	$8	0x1d7261…
05-01 00:45:46	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	330	5¢	$15	0x7643be…
04-23 18:07:10	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-23 18:05 UTC	Down	BUY	282	11¢	$32	0x7a0a14…
04-23 17:55:58	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-23 17:55 UTC	Down	BUY	24	35¢	$8	0x779865…
04-23 17:54:20	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-23 17:50 UTC	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x1242b4…
04-23 00:52:26	bitcoin above 76k on april 23	No	BUY	636	5¢	$32	0xd1d205…
04-17 12:49:38	bitcoin above 76k on april 17	No	BUY	71	48¢	$34	0xa103d2…
04-17 12:49:30	bitcoin above 76k on april 17	Yes	SELL	68	52¢	$35	0x3255d2…
04-17 09:26:30	bitcoin above 76k on april 17	Yes	BUY	71	45¢	$32	0xf3a812…
04-17 09:19:12	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-17 09:15 UTC	Up	BUY	304	5¢	$15	0x3e44aa…
04-17 09:16:44	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-17 09:15 UTC	Up	SELL	27	58¢	$16	0x59bc34…
04-17 09:15:56	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-17 09:15 UTC	Up	BUY	28	44¢	$12	0x165303…
04-17 09:11:24	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-17 09:10 UTC	Up	SELL	26	49¢	$13	0x3173e1…
04-17 09:10:28	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-17 09:10 UTC	Up	BUY	27	44¢	$12	0x82ecaa…
04-17 09:09:24	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-17 09:05 UTC	Down	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x0e0fce…
04-17 09:08:32	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-17 09:05 UTC	Down	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0xefdca3…
04-17 09:06:54	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-17 09:05 UTC	Up	SELL	3	56¢	$2	0xcc6366…
04-17 09:06:34	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-17 09:05 UTC	Up	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0xfb5015…
04-16 23:23:32	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-16 23:20 UTC	Down	BUY	6	19¢	$1	0x219828…
04-16 19:08:46	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-16 19:05 UTC	Up	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x373e1c…
04-16 18:46:52	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-16 18:45 UTC	Down	BUY	99	7¢	$7	0xee99e6…