Realized P&L
-$25
Unrealized P&L
-$11
Hit rate
62.1%
Resolved
205
Trades
507
lifetime
Volume
$2.95K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$6
Open exposure
$67
13 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 11-14 13:20
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 40 days
Categories
Other
71% 57% -$94
Politics
27% 60% +$67
Sports
3% 68% +$2
Tech
0% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
28 active days in 12wk • peak 61 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Yes +35 $17 52¢ $18 +$1 11-13 07:22
Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes +143 $10 7¢ $11 +$1 11-08 06:59
Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? Yes +22 $10 44¢ $10 $0 11-09 21:51
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes +11 $8 64¢ $7 -$1 11-08 06:58
Netanyahu out by June 30, 2027? Yes +7 $5 68¢ $5 $0 11-08 07:06
Fourth Jensen Huang affair reported by December 31? Yes +11 $5 38¢ $4 -$1 11-13 07:15
Will Jensen Huang be arrested by December 31, 2026? Yes +116 $5 4¢ $4 -$1 11-14 13:20
Will Jensen Huang publicly testify before Congress by December 31, 2026? Yes +5 $2 68¢ $4 +$2 11-13 07:21
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting? Yes +51 $2 4¢ $2 $0 11-13 07:17
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes +10 $4 16¢ $2 -$2 11-08 06:58
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30? Yes +28 $4 5¢ $2 -$2 11-14 13:19
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? Yes +6 $2 8¢ $0 -$2 09-27 12:06
Pete Hegseth impeached by December 31, 2026? Yes +7 $5 2¢ $0 -$5 11-09 21:50