Dim-Confusion — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1

Unrealized P&L

-$3

Hit rate

87.2%

Resolved

Trades

149

lifetime

Volume

$682

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-04-17

last 06-16 19:02

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

58% 50% $-0

Other

30% — —

Crypto

10% — —

Pop-Culture

2% 100% +$1

Sports

0% — —

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

28 active days in 12wk • peak 30 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes		+9	$5	18¢	$2	$-3	06-01 09:22

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will 10 or more ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?	4	$121	77	77	+0	open	—	04-23 18:11
Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April?	4	$49	52	52	+0	open	—	04-28 05:13
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	4	$33	47	46	+2	open	—	04-28 06:51
will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	6	$31	37	24	+13	open	—	04-21 21:18
elon musk of tweets april 17 april 24 200 219	3	$26	37	36	+1	open	—	04-24 09:58
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	2	$26	40	38	+2	open	—	04-27 09:24
Will Trump say "Jerome" or "Powell" during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in ceremony?	2	$25	21	21	+0	open	—	05-22 17:33
Will Trump say "Mar-a-Lago" in April?	2	$22	15	15	+0	open	—	04-28 05:08
Will Trump say "Barack Hussein Obamacare" in May?	2	$20	24	24	+0	open	—	05-03 15:45
will starmer say labor or labour 3 times during the next prime ministers questions event 323	1	$20	34	0	+34	open	—	04-21 23:16
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in May?	2	$20	15	15	+0	open	—	05-13 12:21
Will Trump say "Obliterated" or "Obliteration" during King Charles visit?	3	$16	377	0	+377	open	—	04-30 19:11
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 15?	2	$15	13	13	+0	open	—	05-16 19:45
elon musk of tweets april 17 april 24 220 239	2	$14	33	32	+1	open	—	04-24 04:20
Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with Xi Jinping?	2	$12	10	10	+0	open	—	05-10 17:24
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 26-June 1?	2	$11	9	9	+0	open	—	05-25 19:12
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	2	$10	7	7	+0	open	—	04-28 09:44
will starmer say united states during the next prime ministers questions event 923 539	1	$10	19	0	+19	open	—	04-22 06:19
Will Starmer say "Apologize" or "Apology" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?	1	$10	17	0	+17	open	—	05-01 21:45
elon musk of tweets april 17 april 24 180 199	1	$10	53	0	+53	open	—	04-24 04:19
Will Trump say "Winston" or "Churchill" during King Charles visit?	1	$10	15	0	+15	open	—	04-23 13:58
Will Kanye tweet again by April 30?	1	$10	19	0	+19	open	—	04-23 14:01
btc updown 5m 1776461100	3	$7	6	6	+0	open	—	04-17 21:29
Will Trump say "Trump Time" in April?	2	$6	30	0	+30	open	—	04-28 07:48
will king charless remarks not air	1	$5	317	0	+317	open	—	04-28 14:08
btc updown 5m 1776546000	4	$5	35	32	+2	open	—	04-18 21:04
Will Trump say "Discombobulator" or "Discombobulated" in May?	1	$5	12	0	+12	open	—	05-01 21:22
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June?	1	$5	20	0	+20	open	—	06-01 09:07
Will Trump say "Nuke" in May?	1	$5	7	0	+7	open	—	05-18 18:50
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	1	$5	9	0	+9	open	—	06-01 09:22

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-16 19:02:13	will trump meet with elon musk in june 2026	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xd2fd64…
06-05 18:24:21	will john ternus say siri during the apple wwdc 2026 event on june 8th	Yes	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0x72ac25…
06-05 18:23:34	will tim cook say open source during the apple wwdc 2026 event on june 8th	Yes	BUY	36	14¢	$5	0x434c20…
06-01 09:27:30	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x299eb2…
06-01 09:22:50	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x8e2592…
06-01 09:07:53	Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June?	Yes	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x89f8fe…
06-01 09:04:26	Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June?	Yes	BUY	9	57¢	$5	0x8ed353…
05-25 19:12:35	MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 26-June 1?	Yes	SELL	9	64¢	$6	0x8ad198…
05-25 09:25:18	MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 26-June 1?	Yes	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0x9e19c5…
05-25 09:25:11	MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 19-25?	Yes	BUY	125	1¢	$1	0x7aec38…
05-22 17:33:36	Will Trump say "Jerome" or "Powell" during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in ceremony?	No	SELL	21	98¢	$20	0xca46a1…
05-21 19:52:32	Will Trump say "Jerome" or "Powell" during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in ceremony?	No	BUY	21	24¢	$5	0x754e2e…
05-18 18:50:16	Will Trump say "Nuke" in May?	Yes	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0x624d1d…
05-16 19:45:51	Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 15?	Yes	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0xcaaf17…
05-15 21:04:58	Will MrBeast say "Cash" during his next YouTube video?	Yes	BUY	6	33¢	$2	0xc12632…
05-13 12:35:30	Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 15?	Yes	BUY	13	16¢	$2	0x903c6f…
05-13 12:22:40	Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	15	15¢	$2	0x274ecb…
05-13 12:21:15	Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in May?	Yes	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0xad54ed…
05-10 17:24:42	Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	10	63¢	$7	0x2a91bd…
05-08 20:21:39	Will "Epstein" be said on ICEMAN?	Yes	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0xdf2357…
05-08 20:04:21	Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in May 2026?	No	BUY	13	8¢	$1	0x4220f0…
05-05 20:46:46	Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0xcfba18…
05-05 20:44:44	Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	15	13¢	$2	0xc2f95d…
05-05 02:58:48	Will Trump say "Train" this week?	Yes	SELL	4	43¢	$2	0x76f287…
05-03 20:35:36	Will Trump say "Train" this week?	Yes	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0xe5e838…
05-03 15:45:54	Will Trump say "Barack Hussein Obamacare" in May?	Yes	SELL	24	64¢	$15	0x91f22f…
05-02 16:14:46	Will MrBeast say "Donate" or "Donated" during his next video?	Yes	BUY	13	15¢	$2	0x1dee9f…
05-02 11:45:40	Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	26	4¢	$1	0xe65bc4…
05-02 11:44:36	Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31?	Yes	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0xbb24ae…
05-02 11:43:08	Will Kanye tweet again by May 31?	Yes	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0xaa45bb…
05-01 21:55:52	Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in May?	Yes	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0xa70dfe…
05-01 21:48:26	Will Starmer say "Deeply Concerning" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?	Yes	BUY	11	28¢	$3	0x952052…
05-01 21:45:32	Will Starmer say "Apologize" or "Apology" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?	Yes	BUY	17	59¢	$10	0xe880d6…
05-01 21:41:08	Will Trump say "Peace in the Middle East" this week? (April 27 - May 3)	Yes	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0x92a8d8…
05-01 21:24:10	Will Trump say "Barack Hussein Obamacare" in May?	Yes	BUY	24	21¢	$5	0x24a300…
05-01 21:22:16	Will Trump say "Discombobulator" or "Discombobulated" in May?	Yes	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0x807f13…
04-30 19:11:12	Will Trump say "Obliterated" or "Obliteration" during King Charles visit?	Yes	BUY	317	3¢	$10	0x227709…
04-30 19:08:24	Will Trump say "Crypto / Bitcoin" during King Charles visit?	Yes	BUY	107	1¢	$1	0xeaee5e…
04-30 19:07:32	Will Trump say "Obliterated" or "Obliteration" during King Charles visit?	Yes	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x57aabb…
04-28 14:08:42	will king charless remarks not air	Yes	BUY	317	2¢	$5	0xfb0857…
04-28 14:02:32	Will King Charles say "Ballroom" during the joint meeting of Congress?	Yes	BUY	45	11¢	$5	0xb17dd1…
04-28 09:58:56	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	Yes	BUY	21	16¢	$3	0xe5bb6f…
04-28 09:44:04	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	No	SELL	7	79¢	$5	0x18047a…
04-28 07:48:22	Will Trump say "Trump Time" in April?	Yes	BUY	28	18¢	$5	0xd716d6…
04-28 06:55:52	Will Trump say "Obliterated" or "Obliteration" during King Charles visit?	Yes	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0xbd309e…
04-28 06:51:10	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	70¢	$5	0x3f2572…
04-28 05:18:08	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	No	BUY	7	73¢	$5	0x24a217…
04-28 05:17:56	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0xcbede4…
04-28 05:13:54	Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April?	No	SELL	29	25¢	$7	0x9f1ef1…
04-28 05:09:46	Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April?	Yes	SELL	23	73¢	$17	0x130c4b…
04-28 05:08:32	Will Trump say "Mar-a-Lago" in April?	Yes	SELL	15	76¢	$12	0xa5a85d…
04-27 11:29:14	Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April?	Yes	BUY	23	85¢	$20	0xb52a15…
04-27 11:25:32	Will Trump talk to Mohammed bin Salman in April?	Yes	BUY	24	21¢	$5	0x82be1d…
04-27 11:25:26	Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April?	No	BUY	29	17¢	$5	0x00683f…
04-27 09:24:48	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	Yes	SELL	38	33¢	$13	0x4e83eb…
04-27 09:24:42	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	Yes	SELL	38	42¢	$16	0x70ba3f…
04-25 07:17:20	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	25¢	$10	0x337cfb…
04-25 07:16:38	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	25¢	$10	0x7141a7…
04-24 09:58:36	elon musk of tweets april 17 april 24 200 219	Yes	SELL	36	43¢	$15	0x5ff738…
04-24 04:20:26	elon musk of tweets april 17 april 24 220 239	Yes	SELL	32	13¢	$4	0xc47740…
04-24 04:19:22	elon musk of tweets april 17 april 24 180 199	Yes	BUY	53	19¢	$10	0xaebb7d…
04-23 19:56:48	Will Trump say "Mar-a-Lago" in April?	Yes	BUY	15	65¢	$10	0xf67f13…
04-23 18:11:06	Will 10 or more ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?	Yes	SELL	37	82¢	$30	0x1afddb…
04-23 14:18:14	Will 10 or more ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	37	82¢	$30	0xd87269…
04-23 14:01:54	Will Kanye tweet again by April 30?	Yes	BUY	19	52¢	$10	0x0eef84…
04-23 13:58:12	Will Trump say "Winston" or "Churchill" during King Charles visit?	Yes	BUY	15	67¢	$10	0x42960e…
04-23 13:35:42	Will 10 or more ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?	Yes	SELL	40	78¢	$31	0x89f4a8…
04-23 13:01:32	Will 10 or more ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	40	75¢	$30	0x333a4e…
04-22 21:33:46	Will Trump say "Pope" or "Leo" this week? (April 20 - 26)	Yes	SELL	1	30¢	$0	0x8ba76b…
04-22 14:58:06	elon musk of tweets april 17 april 24 220 239	Yes	BUY	33	30¢	$10	0xe089e0…
04-22 14:28:26	elon musk of tweets april 17 april 24 200 219	Yes	BUY	34	30¢	$10	0xb4aa64…
04-22 06:19:30	will starmer say united states during the next prime ministers questions event 923 539	Yes	BUY	19	54¢	$10	0x5664b5…
04-21 23:16:22	will starmer say labor or labour 3 times during the next prime ministers questions event 323	Yes	BUY	34	59¢	$20	0x1c6a90…
04-21 21:18:36	will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	No	BUY	13	54¢	$7	0x42adfc…
04-21 21:15:40	will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	No	SELL	23	63¢	$14	0xd2ada9…
04-21 20:31:26	will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	No	BUY	18	33¢	$6	0xd31b0a…
04-21 20:25:08	will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	No	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0xe0f374…
04-21 19:08:46	will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	No	SELL	2	81¢	$1	0x1a7c69…
04-21 18:17:18	elon musk of tweets april 17 april 24 200 219	Yes	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x229475…
04-21 17:55:32	USD.AI FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	3	49¢	$2	0xd7de8e…
04-21 17:20:38	USD.AI FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	3	52¢	$2	0x544052…
04-21 02:23:40	will starmer say europe during the next prime ministers questions event 781 449	Yes	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x38e7af…
04-21 00:10:38	Will Trump say "Trump Time" in April?	Yes	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0xbb4280…
04-20 21:51:40	will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	No	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x7299b8…
04-20 21:49:30	Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" this week? (April 20 - 26)	No	SELL	3	41¢	$1	0x86aa80…
04-20 19:58:04	Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" this week? (April 20 - 26)	No	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0xbc243a…
04-20 18:38:50	btc updown 5m 1776710100	Up	SELL	2	1¢	$0	0x3dbb41…
04-20 18:36:34	btc updown 5m 1776710100	Down	SELL	2	59¢	$1	0x040c8d…
04-20 18:36:16	btc updown 5m 1776710100	Up	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x1ed3d3…
04-20 18:36:10	btc updown 5m 1776710100	Down	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x1c6961…
04-20 18:28:56	btc updown 5m 1776709500	Up	SELL	2	29¢	$1	0x08a0f9…
04-20 18:27:44	btc updown 5m 1776709500	Up	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0xd14c9e…
04-20 18:21:38	btc updown 5m 1776709200	Down	SELL	1	82¢	$1	0x87ae7d…
04-20 18:20:38	btc updown 5m 1776709200	Down	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0xc8a31c…
04-20 18:20:14	btc updown 5m 1776709200	Up	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x9be0b7…
04-20 08:19:26	highest temperature in beijing on april 20 2026 23c	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x041b10…
04-20 05:08:38	highest temperature in beijing on april 20 2026 21c	Yes	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x3b3692…
04-20 05:02:26	highest temperature in tokyo on april 20 2026 23c	Yes	SELL	3	32¢	$1	0xdea541…
04-20 04:59:52	highest temperature in shanghai on april 20 2026 20c	Yes	SELL	78	1¢	$1	0x7f03ac…
04-20 04:57:18	highest temperature in shanghai on april 20 2026 20c	Yes	BUY	82	1¢	$1	0x8dd475…