Probable-Character — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$30

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

0.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$1.14K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$13

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-12

last 04-01 19:49

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

58% 0% $-30

Politics

42% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

4 active days in 12wk • peak 11 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
odds of khamenei being out as supreme leader by march 31 over 50 in february	2	$182	179	179	+0	open	—	02-28 13:51
will hezbollah disarm by march 31	9	$131	9,133	9,133	+0	open	—	03-26 22:04
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	5	$97	2,411	100	+2,311	open	—	03-10 18:21
will turkey strike iran by march 31	3	$60	820	0	+820	open	—	03-07 01:20
us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by march 31	3	$59	381	381	+0	open	—	03-14 14:04
US strike on Mexico by March 31?	3	$50	770	0	+770	open	—	03-03 16:26
Will Ali Khamenei be the next leader out before 2027?	2	$35	1,288	0	+1,288	open	—	02-17 16:39
us forces enter iran by march 14 337	2	$35	1,100	0	+1,100	open	—	03-14 19:35
us strikes yemen by march 31 2026	2	$32	30	30	+0	open	—	02-28 17:16
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	2	$30	3,333	0	+3,333	open	—	03-02 20:15
will the us next strike iran on february 27 2026 et	2	$29	5,696	0	+5,696	open	—	03-01 00:09
us evacuates baghdad embassy by february 28	2	$25	402	241	+161	open	—	02-28 13:06
us forces enter iran by march 7	3	$21	759	0	+759	open	—	03-07 19:44
will crude oil cl hit high 180 by end of march 692	1	$20	313	0	+313	open	—	03-14 14:06
will khamenei leave iran by february 28 2026 713 559	2	$20	762	0	+762	open	—	02-28 20:07
us strikes yemen by february 28 2026	2	$15	56	24	+32	open	—	02-28 13:07
will the dhs shutdown last 10 days or more	1	$10	359	0	+359	open	—	02-17 16:01
will israel strike 4 countries in february 2026	1	$10	97	0	+97	open	—	02-12 19:52
will putin meet with zelenskyy by march 31 2026	1	$10	200	0	+200	open	—	02-12 19:14
will israel or the us target an iranian nuclear facility 276	1	$10	1,429	0	+1,429	open	—	03-03 16:22
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the next leader out before 2027?	1	$10	580	0	+580	No	$-10	03-17 23:50
will the us next strike iran on february 28 2026 et	1	$10	3,900	0	+3,900	open	—	03-02 15:56
us strikes iran by february 17 2026 833	1	$10	1,111	0	+1,111	open	—	02-17 15:50
us strikes iran by february 27 2026	1	$10	238	0	+238	open	—	02-27 23:20
Will Estonia advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	1	$10	40	0	+40	No	$-10	03-26 18:22
another us government shutdown by february 14	1	$10	213	0	+213	open	—	02-12 19:15
us strikes iran by february 21 2026	1	$10	194	0	+194	open	—	02-20 19:42
will israels ben gurion airport reopen by march 4 546	1	$10	333	0	+333	open	—	03-03 23:14
US strike on Cuba by March 31?	1	$10	215	0	+215	open	—	03-02 15:58
will the us invade iran by march 31	1	$10	71	0	+71	open	—	03-26 22:06

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
04-01 19:49:53	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April?	Yes	BUY	54	4¢	$2	0xc56430…
04-01 19:47:55	Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	278	1¢	$2	0x38184f…
03-26 22:07:23	Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	294	2¢	$5	0xa11688…
03-26 22:07:11	will the us officially declare war on iran by march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	1,667	0¢	$5	0xcfa988…
03-26 22:06:51	will the us invade iran by march 31	Yes	BUY	71	14¢	$10	0xf3d3df…
03-26 22:06:19	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	56	18¢	$10	0xafff55…
03-26 22:04:21	will hezbollah disarm by march 31	Yes	SELL	3,492	0¢	$11	0xe627e7…
03-26 18:23:55	Will Croatia be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	62	8¢	$5	0xa0bf32…
03-26 18:22:47	Will United Kingdom come in last place at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	44	11¢	$5	0x038e2c…
03-26 18:22:27	Will Estonia advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	Yes	BUY	40	25¢	$10	0x70f60c…
03-26 18:17:17	Will France win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	42	12¢	$5	0x3605a2…
03-26 18:17:07	Will Romania win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	417	1¢	$5	0x230cf6…
03-26 18:16:59	Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	720	1¢	$5	0xea54a4…
03-24 01:14:13	will hezbollah disarm by march 31	Yes	SELL	3,492	1¢	$31	0x5dcfe0…
03-23 17:40:47	will hezbollah disarm by march 31	Yes	SELL	2,148	1¢	$28	0xf9e1d6…
03-17 23:50:29	Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	455	2¢	$10	0xe7f7e8…
03-17 23:50:15	Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	580	2¢	$10	0x81337e…
03-14 19:35:45	us forces enter iran by march 14 337	Yes	BUY	1,042	2¢	$25	0xfcf4b2…
03-14 14:06:07	will crude oil cl hit high 180 by end of march 692	Yes	BUY	313	6¢	$20	0x16f7a2…
03-14 14:05:57	will crude oil cl hit high 150 by end of march 138 937 747	Yes	BUY	61	16¢	$10	0x567810…
03-14 14:04:13	us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by march 31	Yes	SELL	381	9¢	$34	0x13941a…
03-10 18:21:13	Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	No	BUY	1,332	0¢	$7	0xfc4f48…
03-10 18:18:33	Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	No	BUY	360	0¢	$2	0xe72af4…
03-08 12:52:11	Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	No	BUY	619	3¢	$20	0x4d632a…
03-07 19:44:15	us forces enter iran by march 7	Yes	BUY	555	1¢	$3	0x78c76e…
03-07 01:20:11	will turkey strike iran by march 31	Yes	BUY	426	9¢	$40	0xd895ce…
03-04 03:32:25	us forces enter iran by march 7	Yes	BUY	93	8¢	$7	0x2a6ca7…
03-04 01:10:29	will turkey strike iran by march 31	Yes	BUY	177	6¢	$10	0x10dc3d…
03-04 01:04:17	us forces enter iran by march 7	Yes	BUY	111	9¢	$10	0x43a18a…
03-04 01:04:09	us forces enter iran by march 14 337	Yes	BUY	59	17¢	$10	0x23ad30…
03-03 23:14:43	will israels ben gurion airport reopen by march 4 546	Yes	BUY	333	3¢	$10	0x236b66…
03-03 16:26:37	US strike on Mexico by March 31?	Yes	BUY	357	4¢	$15	0x13f4fd…
03-03 16:22:59	will israel or the us target an iranian nuclear facility 276	No	BUY	1,429	1¢	$10	0xc1b9db…
03-02 20:19:31	Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	Yes	SELL	100	59¢	$59	0x9f43aa…
03-02 20:15:59	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	No	BUY	2,500	0¢	$5	0xbc4727…
03-02 15:58:21	US strike on Cuba by March 31?	Yes	BUY	215	5¢	$10	0x05d9b1…
03-02 15:56:07	will the us next strike iran on february 28 2026 et	No	BUY	3,900	0¢	$10	0x80d813…
03-01 12:36:35	will israel strike 3 countries in february 2026	Yes	BUY	5,000	0¢	$5	0x89f566…
03-01 12:31:05	will turkey strike iran by march 31	Yes	BUY	217	5¢	$10	0x04c774…
03-01 00:16:25	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	No	BUY	833	3¢	$25	0xaf7f00…
03-01 00:09:29	will the us next strike iran on february 27 2026 et	Yes	BUY	5,000	0¢	$25	0xcc75b3…
02-28 22:41:25	us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by march 31	Yes	BUY	214	7¢	$15	0xe3bd07…
02-28 20:07:03	will khamenei leave iran by february 28 2026 713 559	Yes	BUY	392	3¢	$10	0x1f7ecf…
02-28 17:16:35	us strikes yemen by march 31 2026	Yes	SELL	30	89¢	$27	0xdbb009…
02-28 13:51:35	odds of khamenei being out as supreme leader by march 31 over 50 in february	Yes	SELL	179	99¢	$177	0x4dfa23…
02-28 13:30:55	will hezbollah disarm by march 31	Yes	BUY	1,530	2¢	$25	0xac8afb…
02-28 13:07:05	us strikes yemen by february 28 2026	Yes	SELL	24	42¢	$10	0x5cd581…
02-28 13:06:17	us evacuates baghdad embassy by february 28	Yes	SELL	241	6¢	$15	0x183919…
02-28 12:53:41	will hezbollah disarm by march 31	Yes	BUY	1,243	1¢	$10	0x22f489…
02-28 12:42:23	will the us next strike iran on february 27 2026 et	Yes	BUY	696	1¢	$4	0xf88417…
02-28 09:58:21	will hezbollah disarm by march 31	Yes	BUY	2,927	0¢	$10	0xd6435d…
02-27 23:21:35	US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	23	44¢	$10	0xba495f…
02-27 23:20:47	us strikes iran by february 27 2026	Yes	BUY	238	4¢	$10	0xd2b797…
02-26 16:18:44	odds of khamenei being out as supreme leader by march 31 over 50 in february	Yes	BUY	179	3¢	$5	0x00447e…
02-26 16:15:44	will hezbollah disarm by march 31	Yes	BUY	1,976	0¢	$5	0xad3197…
02-26 16:14:30	us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by march 31	Yes	BUY	167	6¢	$10	0x2350cb…
02-23 17:02:12	US strike on Mexico by March 31?	Yes	BUY	312	8¢	$25	0xce967a…
02-20 19:42:22	us strikes iran by february 21 2026	Yes	BUY	194	5¢	$10	0x690cab…
02-18 10:28:02	will trump meet with reza pahlavi in february 2026	Yes	BUY	68	4¢	$2	0xc8d215…
02-17 16:39:59	Will Ali Khamenei be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	620	2¢	$10	0x98745b…
02-17 16:35:51	us evacuates baghdad embassy by february 28	Yes	BUY	402	2¢	$10	0xa58ff8…
02-17 16:30:51	ukraine hits moscow by february 28 2026	Yes	BUY	104	5¢	$5	0xb0788c…
02-17 16:17:49	will hezbollah disarm by march 31	Yes	BUY	1,099	0¢	$5	0x7cfb26…
02-17 16:01:39	will the dhs shutdown last 10 days or more	No	BUY	359	3¢	$10	0x5f162d…
02-17 15:50:39	us strikes iran by february 19 2026 992	Yes	BUY	455	2¢	$10	0x5e1126…
02-17 15:50:33	us strikes iran by february 17 2026 833	Yes	BUY	1,111	1¢	$10	0x1965ee…
02-12 20:06:57	us strikes yemen by march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	30	17¢	$5	0x6de062…
02-12 20:06:53	us strikes yemen by february 28 2026	Yes	BUY	56	9¢	$5	0xe3c648…
02-12 20:00:19	Will a new Cabinet of the Netherlands be sworn in by March 31, 2026?	No	BUY	417	1¢	$5	0x99c19b…
02-12 19:58:37	will khamenei leave iran by february 28 2026 713 559	Yes	BUY	370	3¢	$10	0x88c58f…
02-12 19:56:13	Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	Yes	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0xee1c28…
02-12 19:55:57	will hezbollah disarm by march 31	Yes	BUY	358	1¢	$5	0x3f7426…
02-12 19:52:19	will israel strike 4 countries in february 2026	Yes	BUY	97	10¢	$10	0x397fcc…
02-12 19:47:45	will trump meet with vladimir putin in february 2026	Yes	BUY	181	3¢	$5	0x66f90a…
02-12 19:46:35	will trump meet with ali khamenei in february 2026	Yes	BUY	648	1¢	$5	0x7f91ef…
02-12 19:46:21	will trump meet with xi jinping in february 2026	Yes	BUY	332	2¢	$5	0xa65d31…
02-12 19:46:11	will trump meet with nicols maduro in february 2026	Yes	BUY	336	1¢	$5	0x47f803…
02-12 19:45:51	will trump meet with reza pahlavi in february 2026	Yes	BUY	33	15¢	$5	0x462809…
02-12 19:35:57	US strike on Mexico by March 31?	Yes	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0x9372f9…
02-12 19:33:49	will the government shutdown last 5 days or more 234 558 393 861	No	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0x2a4c47…
02-12 19:19:51	Will Ali Khamenei be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	669	4¢	$25	0xdcab5a…
02-12 19:15:01	another us government shutdown by february 14	No	BUY	213	5¢	$10	0x84069d…
02-12 19:14:29	will putin meet with zelenskyy by march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	200	5¢	$10	0xd19069…
02-12 19:01:17	will the us next strike iran on february 13 2026 et	Yes	BUY	493	1¢	$5	0x8ba3b6…
02-12 18:58:23	Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	No	BUY	170	6¢	$10	0x1c4299…
02-12 18:56:41	us strikes iran by february 16 2026 732 528	Yes	BUY	229	4¢	$10	0x3edc83…