Upbeat-Elbow — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$2.56K

Unrealized P&L

-$135

Hit rate

62.2%

Resolved

284

Trades

1,777

lifetime

Volume

$136.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$77

Open exposure

$309

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-31

last 10-10 08:19

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 92 days

Categories

Other

64% 54% -$1,507

Politics

25% 56% -$576

Crypto

8% 59% -$644

Tech

3% 33% +$172

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

8 active days in 12wk • peak 29 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Loranne Ausley win the Tallahassee mayoral election?	No		-246	-$130	100¢	$-246	-$116	06-03 14:04
Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first?	$3,000		+99	$82	64¢	$63	-$19	09-30 15:29

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026?	13	$3.7K	2,031	2,031	+0	Yes	-$53	04-29 15:53
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?	27	$3.0K	2,120	2,120	+0	Yes	+$195	05-23 00:40
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	10	$2.9K	1,647	1,647	+0	Yes	+$3	06-09 17:06
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026?	13	$2.9K	1,610	1,610	+0	Yes	+$62	06-22 15:51
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 14?	20	$2.4K	2,448	2,448	+0	Up	-$242	05-14 17:02
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	22	$2.4K	2,200	1,600	+600	Yes	+$187	06-26 14:40
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	9	$2.1K	1,100	1,100	+0	No	+$3	05-04 13:15
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	8	$2.1K	2,200	2,200	+0	No	+$15	05-25 12:15
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	19	$2.0K	3,743	3,743	+0	No	-$67	04-28 08:27
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	2	$2.0K	1,003	1,003	+0	Yes	+$2	06-23 15:58
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?	40	$2.0K	1,704	1,204	+500	Yes	+$140	06-05 14:56
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?	17	$2.0K	2,151	2,151	+0	No	-$1	05-01 11:21
Putin meets with Iranian officials by May 15?	10	$1.9K	1,411	611	+800	Yes	+$36	04-27 02:48
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	13	$1.9K	1,400	1,400	+0	Yes	+$292	04-15 15:05
Will Andrea Martella win the 2026 Venice mayoral election?	108	$1.8K	1,000	1,000	+0	No	+$8	05-24 11:59
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	2	$1.7K	1,000	1,000	+0	Yes	+$10	05-23 16:38
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?	15	$1.7K	900	900	+0	Yes	-$107	05-18 15:28
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	7	$1.6K	1,296	796	+500	Yes	+$124	07-29 14:19
Chirayu Rana apologizes for sexual harassment allegations?	11	$1.6K	921	921	+0	No	-$1	05-04 12:06
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	25	$1.5K	1,340	1,140	+200	No	-$95	06-23 15:08
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	15	$1.5K	1,210	1,210	+0	Yes	-$31	05-25 14:51
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	27	$1.4K	900	900	+0	No	-$72	05-04 10:10
elon musk of tweets april 7 april 14 280 299	14	$1.4K	863	860	+3	Yes	+$34	04-14 15:37
US x China tariff agreement by December 31?	7	$1.4K	900	900	+0	Yes	+$17	06-15 04:43
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	17	$1.4K	3,594	3,594	+0	No	-$111	05-16 16:37
elon musk of tweets march 20 march 27 240 259	8	$1.4K	733	733	+0	No	+$12	03-27 03:34
elon musk of tweets april 11 april 13 115 139	7	$1.3K	690	690	+0	Yes	+$58	04-13 16:32
elon musk of tweets march 13 march 20 320 339	11	$1.3K	749	749	+0	Yes	-$24	03-20 16:00
elon musk of tweets march 30 april 1 65 89	8	$1.3K	876	875	+0	No	-$185	04-01 15:23
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	7	$1.3K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	05-14 14:05

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-10 08:19:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Down	BUY	250	40¢	$100	0x6b23aa…
10-10 08:18:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Down	SELL	54	95¢	$52	0xe74782…
10-10 08:18:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Up	SELL	15	7¢	$1	0xc97be3…
10-10 08:17:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Down	BUY	54	92¢	$50	0xf52ec5…
10-10 08:16:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Up	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0x1f6b34…
10-10 08:13:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Down	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0x4c9d92…
10-10 08:12:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	SELL	4	28¢	$1	0x7841b9…
10-10 08:10:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0xfb5970…
10-10 07:59:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x7cdda6…
10-10 07:57:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Up	SELL	7	66¢	$5	0xbaf19f…
10-10 07:56:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	7	43¢	$3	0xb42c04…
10-10 07:54:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Down	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x9204b3…
10-10 07:53:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Down	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0xf340d8…
10-10 07:53:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	SELL	12	17¢	$2	0x33fa1a…
10-10 07:52:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	12	25¢	$3	0xef5cc1…
10-10 07:42:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Up	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0x80a242…
10-10 07:36:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Down	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0xa8b9a1…
10-10 07:23:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Down	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0xcf0397…
10-10 07:19:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Up	SELL	4	8¢	$0	0xc62e11…
10-10 07:18:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Down	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0x53019c…
10-10 07:17:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Up	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x567e01…
10-10 07:08:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Down	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0x0516e1…
10-10 07:04:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Up	SELL	40	67¢	$27	0x7741be…
10-10 07:03:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Up	BUY	29	17¢	$5	0x9274f6…
10-10 07:03:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Up	BUY	11	95¢	$10	0x3ffe60…
10-10 06:57:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Down	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0x2a7a9c…
10-10 06:51:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Up	SELL	12	13¢	$2	0x2ab4fd…
10-10 06:51:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Down	BUY	12	82¢	$10	0xfa7f29…
10-10 06:50:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Up	BUY	12	42¢	$5	0xe592e8…
10-08 01:32:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	Down	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0x5b6cf4…
10-08 01:21:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Up	BUY	45	11¢	$5	0x4005d9…
10-08 01:12:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x3ef1c7…
10-08 01:07:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Up	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0xd50b37…
10-08 00:52:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Up	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0xc88871…
10-07 02:59:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xf351c9…
10-06 03:23:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Up	SELL	10	6¢	$1	0x5a763b…
10-06 03:23:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Down	SELL	29	92¢	$27	0x1f9e3b…
10-06 03:22:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Down	BUY	16	62¢	$10	0x9c6510…
10-06 03:21:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Down	BUY	13	76¢	$10	0x7d8467…
10-06 03:20:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Up	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x0861c3…
10-06 03:18:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Up	BUY	11	95¢	$10	0x585832…
10-06 02:51:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	Down	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x2abcde…
10-06 02:47:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x4198c9…
10-06 02:46:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	Down	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0x0e4399…
10-06 02:45:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	Down	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x6d9aee…
10-06 02:08:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x412b27…
10-06 01:52:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Down	SELL	6	97¢	$5	0x30914f…
10-06 01:51:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Down	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0x0ebb33…
10-05 15:29:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Down	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x28e902…
10-05 15:28:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Down	BUY	10	77¢	$8	0x1bfc6e…
10-05 15:25:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Up	SELL	13	55¢	$7	0x173123…
10-05 15:25:22	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-05 15:25 UTC	Up	BUY	13	38¢	$5	0xbcb040…
10-05 15:14:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Down	SELL	7	87¢	$6	0x17831a…
10-05 15:12:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Down	BUY	7	71¢	$5	0x0a2dff…
10-05 15:11:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Up	SELL	16	52¢	$8	0x30777e…
10-05 15:10:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Up	BUY	16	31¢	$5	0x414204…
10-05 14:57:08	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	150	85¢	$127	0xfc67fb…
10-05 03:50:08	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	150	83¢	$124	0x975fcf…
10-03 14:34:15	Will Texas enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	50	16¢	$8	0xcba337…
09-30 19:42:15	will texas enact a data center moratorium by december 31 2027	Yes	SELL	5	35¢	$2	0x80a44c…
09-30 17:46:50	will texas enact a data center moratorium by december 31 2027	Yes	SELL	40	35¢	$14	0x318ae2…
09-30 17:00:05	will texas enact a data center moratorium by december 31 2027	Yes	SELL	5	35¢	$2	0x0a0ffe…
09-30 15:29:18	Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first?	$3,000	BUY	99	83¢	$82	0xef7b9d…
09-30 14:42:00	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	SELL	200	78¢	$156	0xc905c6…
09-30 12:11:33	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	200	78¢	$156	0x2cee4c…
09-30 11:07:20	will texas enact a data center moratorium by december 31 2027	Yes	BUY	100	34¢	$34	0x90d43f…
09-11 12:32:58	Will Congress override any veto in 2026?	Yes	SELL	79	5¢	$4	0xc6dfe5…
09-11 12:32:42	Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	Anthropic	SELL	20	94¢	$19	0x2c034f…
08-02 03:19:51	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-02 03:15 UTC	Down	SELL	306	1¢	$3	0xaaa520…
08-02 03:18:56	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-02 03:15 UTC	Down	BUY	306	98¢	$300	0x34fa61…
08-02 03:14:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 1, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Up	BUY	26	97¢	$25	0xf6187e…
08-02 03:13:36	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-02 03:10 UTC	Up	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x20b35c…
08-02 03:13:08	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-02 03:10 UTC	Up	SELL	8	30¢	$2	0xf8d7b2…
08-02 03:10:47	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-02 03:10 UTC	Up	BUY	8	63¢	$5	0x17933d…
08-02 03:08:21	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-02 03:05 UTC	Up	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0xff64a3…
07-31 14:08:36	wti up or down on july 31 2026	Up	BUY	200	78¢	$156	0x009cfc…
07-31 13:24:38	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-31 13:20 UTC	Up	SELL	30	73¢	$22	0x44919e…
07-31 13:23:41	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-31 13:20 UTC	Up	BUY	30	84¢	$25	0x883612…
07-31 13:09:45	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-31 13:05 UTC	Down	BUY	303	99¢	$300	0x88003b…
07-31 13:08:39	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-31 13:05 UTC	Up	SELL	62	19¢	$12	0x445d83…
07-31 13:07:29	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-31 13:05 UTC	Up	BUY	62	40¢	$25	0x0c127d…
07-31 12:54:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-31 12:50 UTC	Up	BUY	26	97¢	$25	0xe2e869…
07-31 12:48:50	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-31 12:45 UTC	Up	SELL	28	97¢	$27	0x2bf40e…
07-31 12:48:02	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-31 12:45 UTC	Up	BUY	28	90¢	$25	0xa50b6e…
07-30 15:09:36	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-30 15:05 UTC	Up	BUY	303	99¢	$300	0xbfd8c4…
07-30 15:08:53	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-30 15:05 UTC	Down	SELL	44	62¢	$27	0x9645d7…
07-30 15:08:23	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-30 15:05 UTC	Down	BUY	44	57¢	$25	0x939468…
07-30 14:46:41	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-30 14:45 UTC	Down	BUY	32	78¢	$25	0xb1a6e3…
07-30 14:35:02	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-30 14:30 UTC	Up	SELL	318	99¢	$315	0xf9c31f…
07-30 14:34:35	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-30 14:30 UTC	Up	BUY	318	94¢	$300	0xd87c62…
07-30 14:33:24	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-30 14:30 UTC	Down	SELL	250	9¢	$24	0x493342…
07-30 14:32:35	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-30 14:30 UTC	Down	BUY	250	10¢	$25	0x1fd5d2…
07-30 14:29:42	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-30 14:25 UTC	Up	BUY	27	93¢	$25	0x76f509…
07-30 13:45:57	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	SELL	400	90¢	$360	0x009bea…
07-30 12:43:20	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	BUY	400	95¢	$381	0xc30502…
07-29 14:19:32	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	500	76¢	$379	0xcd0ed4…
07-29 13:49:17	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	500	76¢	$381	0x53ff13…
07-29 12:49:30	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	21	76¢	$16	0xf76da8…
07-29 12:49:30	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	479	76¢	$365	0xd2c455…
07-29 12:45:41	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	296	77¢	$227	0x52fd0d…