Hidden-Participation — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$55

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

681

lifetime

Volume

$54.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$80

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-31

last 07-10 05:49

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

72% 100% +$55

Other

28% — —

Crypto

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

36 active days in 12wk • peak 23 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?	8	$2.5K	1,361	1,361	+0	open	—	05-31 07:36
israeli parliament dissolved by july 31	24	$2.3K	5,609	0	+5,609	open	—	06-29 12:09
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	13	$2.2K	1,593	1,593	+0	open	—	05-30 14:07
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	16	$2.1K	2,584	2,584	+0	open	—	05-29 15:03
Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?	12	$1.8K	1,961	86	+1,875	open	—	06-28 13:24
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	9	$1.3K	1,624	1,862	-238	open	—	06-18 02:37
israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	5	$1.3K	752	752	+0	open	—	06-21 06:42
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	5	$1.2K	688	688	-0	open	—	06-28 15:16
mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	2	$1.1K	593	593	+0	open	—	07-10 05:49
mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827 659	4	$1.0K	622	622	+0	open	—	07-10 05:48
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	2	$1.0K	560	560	+0	open	—	06-14 12:52
Will Trump speak to Masoud Pezeshkian in June?	4	$990	549	549	+0	open	—	06-29 02:14
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?	122	$972	9,631	0	+9,631	open	—	05-03 02:13
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026?	4	$929	502	502	+0	open	—	04-25 14:49
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	9	$926	567	567	+0	open	—	05-12 02:05
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30?	4	$839	457	457	+0	open	—	06-20 13:15
Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	6	$798	454	454	+0	open	—	06-19 02:24
Nothing Ever Happens: May	5	$744	313	560	-247	open	—	05-30 18:35
us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 7 2026	4	$735	397	397	+0	open	—	06-04 23:47
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	4	$731	388	388	+0	open	—	05-20 13:42
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026?	4	$714	401	401	+0	open	—	04-28 20:34
us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	7	$713	838	838	+0	open	—	06-20 00:10
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	3	$684	683	683	+0	open	—	04-24 18:49
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	7	$678	462	552	-90	open	—	06-18 19:46
israel closes its airspace by june 8	5	$665	602	602	+0	open	—	06-08 03:13
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30?	2	$646	368	368	+0	open	—	04-22 04:00
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?	4	$607	653	653	+0	open	—	06-17 04:30
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	4	$597	364	364	+0	open	—	05-29 15:26
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?	3	$588	323	323	+0	open	—	04-25 16:07
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	6	$582	856	420	+436	open	—	05-01 06:12

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-10 05:49:29	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	SELL	268	100¢	$267	0xe827a8…
07-10 05:49:10	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	SELL	593	93¢	$552	0x312f29…
07-10 05:48:58	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827 659	No	SELL	622	90¢	$560	0xd6e7f6…
07-04 15:49:34	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	BUY	593	91¢	$540	0xf205c9…
06-29 12:09:11	israeli parliament dissolved by july 31	No	BUY	40	49¢	$20	0xd7c27b…
06-29 03:52:34	israeli parliament dissolved by july 31	No	BUY	434	46¢	$200	0x927fcb…
06-29 03:52:04	will the united kingdom send warships through the strait of hormuz by june 30 2026	No	SELL	228	97¢	$220	0x5f140e…
06-29 02:14:38	israeli parliament dissolved by july 31	No	BUY	400	45¢	$180	0xfde9fe…
06-29 02:14:02	will trump speak to masoud pezeshkian in june	No	SELL	188	96¢	$180	0x2b82ed…
06-28 16:26:13	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827	No	BUY	228	78¢	$177	0x593700…
06-28 15:18:25	israeli parliament dissolved by july 31	No	BUY	1,120	45¢	$504	0x741f23…
06-28 15:16:31	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	688	99¢	$682	0xf4b02e…
06-28 13:44:52	israeli parliament dissolved by july 31	No	BUY	229	45¢	$103	0x7ee226…
06-28 13:44:05	will the united states send warships through the strait of hormuz by june 30 2026	No	SELL	100	93¢	$93	0xbe426a…
06-28 13:42:49	will the united kingdom send warships through the strait of hormuz by june 30 2026	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xe6da18…
06-28 13:42:07	will saudi arabia send warships through the strait of hormuz by june 30 2026	No	SELL	5	94¢	$5	0xba9178…
06-28 13:26:04	israeli parliament dissolved by july 31	No	BUY	196	40¢	$78	0xfd9308…
06-28 13:24:50	Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?	No	SELL	56	91¢	$51	0xb6f5ba…
06-28 13:24:04	Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?	No	SELL	30	92¢	$28	0x8dcbf3…
06-28 12:43:05	israeli parliament dissolved by july 31	No	BUY	176	40¢	$70	0xef6cfe…
06-28 12:42:10	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	No	SELL	76	93¢	$70	0x11ca4f…
06-27 07:19:38	israeli parliament dissolved by july 31	No	BUY	298	35¢	$104	0xc0735f…
06-27 07:19:08	will jd vance visit pakistan by june 30	No	SELL	108	97¢	$104	0x2fe9be…
06-25 21:01:16	israeli parliament dissolved by july 31	No	BUY	30	32¢	$10	0x7ff617…
06-24 20:15:41	israeli parliament dissolved by july 31	No	BUY	100	30¢	$30	0xd7d670…
06-24 01:16:58	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	133	75¢	$100	0xa13501…
06-23 23:58:01	will the united states send warships through the strait of hormuz by june 30 2026	No	BUY	115	87¢	$100	0x80218e…
06-23 23:56:37	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827	No	BUY	145	69¢	$100	0x723431…
06-23 23:49:41	israeli parliament dissolved by july 31	No	BUY	338	30¢	$100	0xa24b55…
06-23 23:48:19	will france send warships through the strait of hormuz by june 30 2026	No	SELL	111	99¢	$110	0xc610f5…
06-22 23:20:53	israeli parliament dissolved by july 31	No	BUY	293	34¢	$100	0x5e859c…
06-21 21:10:07	starmer out by june 22 2026	No	BUY	250	40¢	$100	0xdf363b…
06-21 07:03:47	israeli parliament dissolved by july 31	No	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0xf658fe…
06-21 07:03:23	israeli parliament dissolved by july 31	No	BUY	64	31¢	$20	0x332073…
06-21 06:43:17	israeli parliament dissolved by july 31	No	BUY	355	31¢	$110	0x9b80da…
06-21 06:42:58	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	No	SELL	752	84¢	$631	0xb3d553…
06-20 13:17:26	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31	No	BUY	250	76¢	$190	0x6efb90…
06-20 13:16:40	starmer out by june 26 2026	No	BUY	246	61¢	$150	0x749236…
06-20 13:16:08	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	135	74¢	$100	0xcc11ff…
06-20 13:15:52	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by june 30	No	SELL	457	96¢	$439	0x45305c…
06-20 00:22:43	israeli parliament dissolved by july 31	No	BUY	326	46¢	$150	0x6bb6a3…
06-20 00:10:31	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	No	SELL	175	48¢	$84	0x3ba5f3…
06-19 11:58:37	israeli parliament dissolved by july 31	No	BUY	107	46¢	$49	0xe053f4…
06-19 11:52:14	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 19 2026 475	No	SELL	253	98¢	$249	0xd34266…
06-19 02:24:28	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 19 2026 475	No	BUY	253	86¢	$218	0x5c36b7…
06-19 02:24:05	Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	No	SELL	234	93¢	$217	0xca09fd…
06-19 02:23:52	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	No	BUY	175	60¢	$105	0xb99ed0…
06-19 02:23:32	Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	No	SELL	110	93¢	$103	0xa31aae…
06-19 01:11:01	Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30?	No	BUY	60	83¢	$50	0x2fb2d2…
06-19 01:10:49	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	No	BUY	76	66¢	$50	0xf6b1a1…
06-18 22:43:38	Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	No	SELL	110	93¢	$103	0x55c996…
06-18 20:05:49	israeli parliament dissolved by july 31	No	BUY	65	46¢	$30	0xaef53f…
06-18 20:05:29	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	No	BUY	128	78¢	$100	0x21f695…
06-18 19:49:58	israeli parliament dissolved by july 31	No	BUY	245	45¢	$111	0x0c1d3a…
06-18 19:46:20	Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	Yes	SELL	201	55¢	$110	0xa2b4f3…
06-18 02:43:41	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	1,012	9¢	$91	0x434f2f…
06-18 02:38:13	israeli parliament dissolved by july 31	No	BUY	19	48¢	$9	0x43a667…
06-18 02:37:58	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	96	5¢	$5	0x3f8328…
06-18 02:37:44	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Yes	SELL	595	1¢	$4	0x8f198d…
06-17 04:34:56	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	No	BUY	114	82¢	$93	0x644d5b…
06-17 04:32:52	Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	Yes	BUY	201	75¢	$150	0x146797…
06-17 04:31:43	Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	No	SELL	130	34¢	$44	0xe875ec…
06-17 04:30:37	Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?	No	SELL	260	77¢	$199	0x114435…
06-17 00:22:46	israeli parliament dissolved by july 31	No	BUY	345	44¢	$150	0x62a1f7…
06-17 00:21:28	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	No	SELL	663	7¢	$48	0xf4e2cb…
06-17 00:21:19	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	892	5¢	$47	0x68e4b9…
06-16 19:58:38	will trump speak to masoud pezeshkian in june	No	BUY	188	91¢	$170	0x2924ee…
06-16 00:05:52	Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	140	18¢	$26	0x0690a1…
06-16 00:05:37	Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	No	SELL	501	17¢	$85	0xfcee52…
06-14 13:32:39	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	No	BUY	80	86¢	$69	0x6ea0df…
06-14 13:12:22	Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30?	No	BUY	84	83¢	$70	0x903e89…
06-14 13:02:34	Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?	No	BUY	225	89¢	$200	0x629b19…
06-14 13:00:45	Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?	No	BUY	260	77¢	$200	0x71d703…
06-14 12:52:52	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	No	SELL	560	90¢	$504	0xe0d3ab…
06-12 22:53:46	israeli parliament dissolved by july 31	No	BUY	16	32¢	$5	0x3875b7…
06-12 22:44:18	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	298	84¢	$250	0x5921cd…
06-12 18:32:55	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	No	BUY	431	86¢	$370	0xb3db79…
06-12 10:43:28	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	No	BUY	560	90¢	$504	0x03692a…
06-12 10:42:54	Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?	No	BUY	130	88¢	$114	0x8de910…
06-12 10:29:06	Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?	No	BUY	315	88¢	$278	0x69ac35…
06-11 13:04:28	Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	201	75¢	$150	0xf9bed8…
06-11 13:02:37	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Yes	BUY	595	8¢	$50	0x7c4aa1…
06-10 22:52:06	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	243	30¢	$73	0xd98f4b…
06-10 22:51:43	will jd vance attend nato summit	No	SELL	79	92¢	$73	0x2396f0…
06-09 19:43:13	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	No	BUY	77	84¢	$65	0x6c7177…
06-09 19:40:30	will saudi arabia send warships through the strait of hormuz by june 30 2026	No	BUY	114	87¢	$100	0xce23cd…
06-08 03:14:31	Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?	No	BUY	154	90¢	$139	0x847c96…
06-08 03:13:31	israel closes its airspace by june 8	Yes	SELL	302	46¢	$139	0x3c4ae0…
06-08 02:57:45	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	96	77¢	$74	0x8e72c2…
06-08 02:56:54	israel closes its airspace by june 8	Yes	BUY	302	66¢	$200	0x7714aa…
06-08 02:56:07	israel closes its airspace by june 8	No	SELL	300	42¢	$126	0x99370f…
06-08 02:52:31	israel closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	143	70¢	$100	0x62f310…
06-08 02:43:37	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by june 30	No	BUY	112	89¢	$100	0x286d14…
06-08 02:25:45	israel closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	156	64¢	$100	0x5b529d…
06-08 02:16:07	Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?	No	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0xf4d4bd…
06-08 02:07:18	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	861	53¢	$458	0x5f76d4…
06-07 20:49:13	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	291	43¢	$125	0x0437f9…
06-07 20:48:19	iran closes its airspace by june 15	Yes	SELL	156	80¢	$125	0x10c680…
06-07 20:30:31	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	SELL	517	25¢	$128	0x938122…
06-07 20:29:01	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	570	35¢	$200	0xe875e5…