Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$14

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

61.9%

Resolved

117

Trades

126

lifetime

Volume

$126

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

8 positions

First seen

2026-08-23

last 11-08 07:02

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 50 days

Categories

Other

87% 64% +$14

Politics

11% 54% +$1

Tech

2% 33% $0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

58 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions (8) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 9, 2026?	No	+3	$1	95¢	$2	+$1	11-03 22:00
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 12, 2026?	Yes	+3	$1	57¢	$2	+$1	11-06 13:09
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 12, 2026?	No	+2	$1	56¢	$1	+$0	11-06 22:53
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 10, 2026?	No	+2	$1	54¢	$1	+$0	11-08 07:02
Gemini Carbon released by November 13, 2026?	Yes	+1	$1	80¢	$1	$0	11-07 15:18
Gemini Carbon released by November 13, 2026?	No	+5	$1	20¢	$1	$0	11-07 15:16
Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 35M tonnes at end of October 2026?	Yes	+1	$1	28¢	$0	-$1	10-25 14:48
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?	No	+5	$1	0¢	$0	-$1	11-03 04:23

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-08 07:02:03	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 10, 2026?	No	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x64aeba…
11-07 15:18:33	Gemini Carbon released by November 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x33b114…
11-07 15:16:34	Gemini Carbon released by November 13, 2026?	No	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x06b0a9…
11-06 22:53:18	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 12, 2026?	No	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0xc8bc38…
11-06 13:09:46	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 12, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0xc15970…
11-05 13:23:39	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on November 5?	Up	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0xc0b0f7…
11-05 02:38:25	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on November 5?	Down	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x0fb0cc…
11-05 01:06:01	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 6, 2026?	No	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x0b5896…
11-03 22:00:58	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 9, 2026?	No	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x85f588…
11-03 12:27:09	Will Uber say "Advertising" during earnings call?	No	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0xbeb0ae…
11-03 04:23:55	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?	No	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x0f66bf…
11-02 20:22:58	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	Yes	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x427fc1…
11-02 12:22:33	Will Beyond Meat (BYND) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x719a2c…
11-02 04:22:07	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on November 2?	Down	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0xe5ae79…
11-01 20:09:51	Will Flutter Entertainment (FLUT) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0xf277a9…
11-01 09:47:49	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x658e30…
10-27 07:49:09	Gemini Carbon released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x32a2d8…
10-26 23:48:24	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,100 in October?	Yes	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x32b613…
10-26 14:58:45	Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $555 Week of October 26 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x4d6b4d…
10-26 06:58:15	Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x564db0…
10-25 22:57:50	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x952464…
10-25 14:48:42	Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 35M tonnes at end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x4e6128…
10-25 06:35:00	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 29?	Yes	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x3a954e…
10-24 00:06:41	Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 29, 2026?	No	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x966647…
10-23 16:00:36	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 23?	Down	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x70124d…
10-23 07:23:53	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 29, 2026?	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x9696b5…
10-22 23:23:17	Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0xf517c2…
10-22 12:25:38	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0xab807a…
10-21 19:36:59	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $367.50 Week of October 19 2026?	No	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x9788ed…
10-21 11:14:21	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 27?	No	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0xaf8e01…
10-21 03:07:47	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 21?	Up	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0xbcc7f1…
10-20 15:49:33	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $770 on October 20?	Yes	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x0e1ae0…
10-20 07:48:10	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 20?	Down	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x813abf…
10-19 23:46:15	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 24?	No	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x54d519…
10-19 15:45:03	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 25?	No	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x7b8bf9…
10-19 07:21:48	Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $58 Week of October 19 2026?	No	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x0051aa…
10-18 23:21:39	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,150 Week of October 19 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x11e7f8…
10-18 13:11:00	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 23?	Yes	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0xf32ddd…
10-18 12:11:11	Will United Airlines (UAL) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0xbd7765…
10-18 00:14:06	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 21?	No	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0xad9bac…
10-17 16:07:36	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 21, 2026?	No	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0xd16d12…
10-16 12:39:25	spy up or down on october 16 2026	Up	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0xc10bd5…
10-16 01:52:04	spx up or down on october 16 2026	Down	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x0330d2…
10-15 16:53:47	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 15?	Up	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x31625c…
10-15 08:31:44	will xagusd dip to 55 by october 12 2026	No	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0xa375f4…
10-15 00:01:19	will the tesla roadster fly for 1s	Yes	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x740bf0…
10-14 11:47:07	will spy reach 785 by october 12 2026	No	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0xa82a28…
10-14 03:02:10	spx up or down on october 14 2026	Down	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x7ed7fa…
10-13 18:39:21	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026?	No	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x2b1b07…
10-13 18:38:01	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xa848bd…
10-13 10:37:29	spy up or down on october 13 2026	Up	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x79600c…
10-13 02:33:03	spx up or down on october 13 2026	Down	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0x38c1b2…
10-12 18:32:38	will coin reach 182 50 by october 12 2026 from october 12	No	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x068117…
10-12 10:26:03	Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on October 12?	Up	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0xd091d1…
10-12 02:26:00	Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $198 Week of October 12 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x47164e…
10-11 18:23:57	Will Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Q3 Innovative Medicine revenue be above $16.6B?	Yes	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x18bbd1…
10-11 09:45:33	Will Goldman Sachs (GS) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0xc3b2e3…
10-10 21:58:28	Will Citigroup (C) Q3 provision for credit losses be above $2.8B?	No	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x88446b…
10-10 06:28:09	Gemini Argon released by October 16, 2026?	No	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x4c4063…
10-09 11:48:57	Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	No	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x9c9054…
10-09 03:48:05	spx up or down on october 9 2026	Up	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0xbdc7f5…
10-08 19:47:08	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026?	No	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0xf6e19a…
10-08 13:08:35	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on October 8?	No	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0x788f3e…
10-08 04:19:04	Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $112.50 Week of October 5 2026?	No	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0xc9d817…
10-07 17:27:29	Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $185 Week of October 5 2026?	No	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x96493e…
10-07 17:18:26	Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $72 Week of October 5 2026?	No	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xbe3ec6…
10-07 07:18:14	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 7?	Down	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0xf1d012…
10-06 23:17:22	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 8, 2026?	No	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0xd6ab0c…
10-06 15:01:48	Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $182.50 Week of October 5 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x6ffa96…
10-06 06:39:34	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x2d79dc…
10-05 22:39:02	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 9, 2026?	No	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x2692a2…
10-05 14:38:55	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $64 Week of October 5 2026?	No	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0xe5464a…
10-05 00:09:20	Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $1,050 Week of October 5 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x70ec2a…
10-02 09:17:44	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on October 2?	Yes	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x2268a6…
10-02 08:10:48	spx up or down on october 2 2026	Up	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x9733a2…
10-01 11:40:38	spx up or down on october 1 2026	Up	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x52a715…
10-01 11:36:08	spy up or down on october 1 2026	Up	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x187682…
10-01 03:21:24	trump names ai czar by october 4 2026 20260928	No	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x08d939…
09-30 18:38:15	will mu dip to 990 by september 28 2026	No	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0xc7d926…
09-30 10:07:45	will spy dip to 755 by september 28 2026	No	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x5e5447…
09-27 20:47:09	trump renames ai by september 30	Yes	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0xe0bd14…
09-27 11:55:23	Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $525 in September?	No	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x0175e8…
09-27 01:59:17	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in September?	No	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x89859b…
09-26 09:23:05	Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $344 in September?	Yes	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0xe53baf…
09-23 10:52:55	will xagusd reach 68 by september 21 2026	No	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x689078…
09-23 02:29:02	Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $790 Week of September 21 2026?	No	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0xf167ef…
09-21 06:04:59	Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $130 Week of September 21 2026?	No	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0xca85e6…
09-20 22:00:13	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $365 Week of September 21 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xce26a1…
09-19 07:43:28	trump x greenland deal signed by september 23	Yes	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0xd36e2c…
09-17 18:02:06	Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $189 Week of September 14 2026?	No	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x5c1436…
09-17 05:14:43	spy closes above 755 on september 17 2026	No	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0xeb9972…
09-16 20:38:54	saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by september 22	No	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0xb44c93…
09-15 23:55:57	Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his remarks in North Carolina?	Yes	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x1bd3f5…
09-14 13:20:15	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 Week of September 14 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x1a45e9…
09-14 05:14:16	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $382.50 Week of September 14 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x6ba803…
09-13 21:13:39	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $750 Week of September 14 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0xe84d88…
09-11 14:44:28	Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $960 Week of September 7 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0xe426ed…
09-11 04:16:43	spx up or down on september 11 2026	Up	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0xd868ee…
09-10 18:39:40	Will Trump say "Afford" or "Affordable" or "Affordability" during RNC Convention?	Yes	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x76024f…
09-10 08:29:36	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7?	No	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0xd2d0e0…

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026?	2	$2	4	+4	No	+$0	10-13 18:39
Gemini Carbon released by November 13, 2026?	2	$2	6	+6	open	—	11-07 15:18
trump x greenland deal signed by september 23	1	$1	2	+2	Yes	+$1	09-19 07:43
Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 31, 2026?	1	$1	2	+2	Yes	-$1	10-26 06:58
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7?	1	$1	3	+3	Yes	-$1	09-10 08:29
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on November 2?	1	$1	4	+4	Down	+$3	11-02 04:22
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $112.50 Week of October 5 2026?	1	$1	2	+2	No	+$1	10-08 04:19
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 3, 2026?	1	$1	5	+5	No	-$1	11-01 09:47
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 21, 2026?	1	$1	2	+2	No	+$1	10-17 16:07
spx up or down on october 16 2026	1	$1	2	+2	Down	+$1	10-16 01:52
Will Uber say "Advertising" during earnings call?	1	$1	2	+2	No	+$1	11-03 12:27
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on November 5?	1	$1	2	+2	Down	+$1	11-05 02:38
spy up or down on october 1 2026	1	$1	1	+1	Up	+$0	10-01 11:36
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 21?	1	$1	2	+2	Yes	-$1	10-18 00:14
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 29?	1	$1	1	+1	Yes	+$0	10-25 06:35
Will Flutter Entertainment (FLUT) beat quarterly earnings?	1	$1	2	+2	No	+$1	11-01 20:09
will spy reach 785 by october 12 2026	1	$1	2	+2	No	+$1	10-14 11:47
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 20?	1	$1	2	+2	Up	-$1	10-20 07:48
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 11?	1	$1	2	+2	Yes	+$1	09-09 08:52
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	1	$1	1	+1	Yes	+$0	10-25 22:57
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $525 in September?	1	$1	2	+2	No	+$1	09-27 11:55
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $382.50 Week of September 14 2026?	1	$1	4	+4	No	-$1	09-14 05:14
Will Citigroup (C) Q3 provision for credit losses be above $2.8B?	1	$1	1	+1	No	+$0	10-10 21:58
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 27?	1	$1	2	+2	Yes	-$1	10-21 11:14
Will Goldman Sachs (GS) beat quarterly earnings?	1	$1	2	+2	Yes	+$1	10-11 09:45
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on September 8?	1	$1	3	+3	Down	+$2	09-08 15:47
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 29, 2026?	1	$1	1	+1	No	+$0	10-23 07:23
trump renames ai by september 30	1	$1	4	+4	Yes	+$3	09-27 20:47
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026?	1	$1	1	+1	No	+$0	10-08 19:47
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $185 Week of October 5 2026?	1	$1	2	+2	No	+$1	10-07 17:27