Definite-Associate — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$902

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

88.7%

Resolved

5,945

Trades

10,142

lifetime

Volume

$158.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$16

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-09

last 10-25 19:41

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 211 days

Categories

Crypto

97% 87% -$891

Other

3% 80% +$0

Politics

0% 50% -$12

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

69 active days in 12wk • peak 227 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-12 20:15 UTC	2	$2.4K	1,221	1,221	+0	Down	+$11	01-12 20:34
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-13 12:30 UTC	2	$1.5K	1,560	0	+1,560	Up	+$28	01-13 12:43
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-13 15:45 UTC	2	$1.5K	1,602	0	+1,602	Up	-$14	01-13 15:55
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-13 14:00 UTC	3	$1.5K	1,562	0	+1,562	Down	+$51	01-13 14:14
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-13 10:45 UTC	2	$1.4K	1,422	0	+1,422	Up	+$57	01-13 10:57
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-13 05:00 UTC	2	$1.4K	1,422	0	+1,422	Up	+$62	01-13 05:10
XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-13 16:45 UTC	2	$1.3K	1,393	0	+1,393	Down	-$1,331	01-13 16:56
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-13 16:30 UTC	2	$1.3K	1,350	0	+1,350	Up	+$75	01-13 16:37
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-13 16:00 UTC	3	$1.3K	1,349	139	+1,210	Down	-$49	01-13 16:14
SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-13 16:15 UTC	1	$1.3K	1,275	0	+1,275	Up	+$18	01-13 16:21
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-13 08:30 UTC	2	$1.2K	1,215	0	+1,215	Up	+$50	01-13 08:37
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-13 12:15 UTC	2	$1.1K	1,111	0	+1,111	Up	+$20	01-13 12:28
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-13 13:00 UTC	4	$1.0K	1,149	419	+730	Up	-$188	01-13 13:13
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-12 21:00 UTC	2	$1.0K	540	539	+1	Down	+$9	01-12 21:14
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-13 14:30 UTC	1	$961	970	0	+970	Up	+$10	01-13 14:43
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-13 06:00 UTC	5	$840	829	271	+559	Down	-$4	01-13 06:12
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-13 15:30 UTC	2	$775	828	0	+828	Up	+$52	01-13 15:35
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-12 19:45 UTC	2	$766	784	0	+784	Up	+$18	01-12 19:57
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-13 15:30 UTC	1	$686	693	0	+693	Up	+$7	01-13 15:42
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-13 13:00 UTC	1	$644	657	0	+657	Down	+$13	01-13 13:13
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-12 19:15 UTC	2	$603	640	0	+640	Up	+$38	01-12 19:24
XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-12 20:30 UTC	8	$591	300	300	+0	Down	+$9	01-12 20:48
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-13 08:00 UTC	1	$500	507	0	+507	Up	+$7	01-13 08:12
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-13 11:45 UTC	1	$500	506	0	+506	Up	+$6	01-13 11:55
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-13 04:45 UTC	1	$500	515	0	+515	Up	+$15	01-13 04:55
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-13 06:45 UTC	1	$500	510	0	+510	Up	+$10	01-13 06:53
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-13 11:30 UTC	2	$460	482	0	+482	Down	+$22	01-13 11:41
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-13 05:45 UTC	2	$442	475	0	+475	Down	+$33	01-13 05:56
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-13 02:45 UTC	1	$400	412	0	+412	Up	+$12	01-13 02:56
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-13 04:15 UTC	2	$400	470	0	+470	Down	+$70	01-13 04:25

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-25 19:41:48	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	16	77¢	$12	0x95cb88…
10-25 18:42:59	Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	4	72¢	$3	0x2ba9ad…
10-25 18:39:15	Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	SELL	4	97¢	$3	0xef8bea…
10-25 18:37:35	Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	4	84¢	$3	0x03bc1f…
10-25 18:23:51	Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Down	BUY	3	97¢	$3	0x554b86…
10-25 18:09:06	Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Down	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0xd83714…
10-25 18:08:36	Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Down	BUY	3	93¢	$3	0xc70810…
10-25 18:08:36	Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Down	BUY	3	93¢	$3	0xb53a51…
10-25 15:59:14	Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x1a320d…
10-25 15:19:05	Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Down	SELL	11	99¢	$11	0xdfabdd…
10-25 15:18:44	Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xcc5c8e…
10-25 15:17:56	Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Down	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0xd128ac…
10-25 15:17:47	Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Up	SELL	19	12¢	$2	0x18059e…
10-25 15:17:44	Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Up	BUY	19	16¢	$3	0x3ca443…
10-25 14:51:27	Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Up	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0xacc1ff…
10-25 14:50:59	Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Up	BUY	3	92¢	$3	0xe6bbc8…
10-24 21:49:20	Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Down	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0x78e6a6…
10-24 21:49:14	Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Down	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0x74ad5c…
10-24 21:47:23	Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Down	BUY	3	86¢	$3	0xf76441…
10-24 21:46:26	Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Down	BUY	3	92¢	$3	0xdb9c3d…
10-24 21:33:47	Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Down	BUY	3	98¢	$3	0x75b112…
10-24 21:33:47	Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Down	BUY	3	98¢	$3	0x5b58f2…
10-24 20:23:11	Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xd975d0…
10-24 18:43:47	Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Down	BUY	3	98¢	$3	0x6291c0…
10-24 17:48:03	Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Up	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x4db4ce…
10-24 15:46:42	Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Up	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0x1bb0e2…
10-24 15:13:42	Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Down	BUY	11	95¢	$10	0xf25fdc…
10-24 13:23:24	Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Up	BUY	3	91¢	$3	0xf7ea0d…
10-24 13:23:12	Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Up	SELL	7	92¢	$6	0xee272f…
10-24 13:22:51	Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Up	BUY	3	91¢	$3	0x22e0c0…
10-24 13:22:03	Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Up	BUY	4	81¢	$3	0x235a75…
10-24 12:41:45	Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xb3a73b…
10-24 11:18:30	Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Down	BUY	3	96¢	$3	0x68d622…
10-24 10:38:23	Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x309581…
10-24 10:37:47	Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Down	BUY	4	75¢	$3	0x22fae0…
10-24 10:32:12	Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Up	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x0c71bd…
10-24 10:32:12	Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Up	BUY	3	94¢	$3	0x0bd4a2…
10-23 16:49:02	Ethereum Up or Down - October 23, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Down	BUY	3	97¢	$3	0xdd0c28…
10-23 16:49:02	Ethereum Up or Down - October 23, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x450a5a…
10-23 16:36:48	Ethereum Up or Down - October 23, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Up	BUY	3	93¢	$3	0xa2f0c6…
10-23 16:13:39	Ethereum Up or Down - October 23, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xc16f00…
10-22 16:52:56	Ethereum Up or Down - October 22, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Up	SELL	60	2¢	$1	0x05dbf5…
10-22 16:52:51	Ethereum Up or Down - October 22, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Up	BUY	130	4¢	$5	0x7a4f31…
10-22 16:18:56	Ethereum Up or Down - October 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Up	SELL	3	98¢	$3	0x968464…
10-22 16:18:08	Ethereum Up or Down - October 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Up	BUY	3	90¢	$3	0x73a3dc…
10-22 16:17:20	Ethereum Up or Down - October 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Up	SELL	4	75¢	$3	0xee2742…
10-22 16:16:53	Ethereum Up or Down - October 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Up	BUY	4	69¢	$3	0xa0a883…
10-21 18:38:48	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	SELL	3	97¢	$3	0x1e4292…
10-21 18:38:36	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	3	91¢	$3	0xe50557…
10-21 17:24:21	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Up	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0xc547d5…
10-21 17:24:14	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Up	BUY	3	92¢	$3	0x8a0d94…
10-21 17:24:08	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Up	SELL	4	90¢	$4	0xdd168c…
10-21 17:23:45	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Up	BUY	4	70¢	$3	0x4357d3…
10-21 16:58:47	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Down	SELL	4	89¢	$3	0x6d3ec4…
10-21 16:58:33	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Down	BUY	4	82¢	$3	0x9a0641…
10-21 16:54:11	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Down	SELL	3	97¢	$3	0x7ddcdd…
10-21 16:53:53	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Down	BUY	3	89¢	$3	0x9f4cd6…
10-21 16:53:41	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Down	SELL	4	93¢	$3	0x220f2e…
10-21 16:53:24	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Down	BUY	4	81¢	$3	0x248d32…
10-21 16:44:18	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Down	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x8ff9bd…
10-21 14:39:17	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Down	SELL	14	86¢	$12	0x6f21dd…
10-21 14:38:53	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Down	BUY	14	70¢	$10	0x2ef46c…
10-21 14:38:02	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Up	SELL	12	85¢	$10	0x58b499…
10-21 14:37:38	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Up	BUY	12	84¢	$10	0x94711e…
10-21 14:37:21	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Up	SELL	13	85¢	$11	0xf4a0b7…
10-21 14:36:06	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Up	BUY	13	76¢	$10	0x8bf4d0…
10-21 13:01:36	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Up	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xcb4bd5…
10-21 12:59:20	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	4	84¢	$3	0xd5f560…
10-21 12:47:53	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Down	SELL	6	96¢	$5	0x431e65…
10-21 12:47:30	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Down	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0xc1b444…
10-21 12:47:21	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Down	SELL	4	87¢	$3	0x3bf073…
10-21 12:46:53	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Down	BUY	4	79¢	$3	0xaffa3f…
10-20 21:32:41	Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Down	SELL	11	97¢	$11	0xc2534f…
10-20 21:32:23	Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Down	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0xe4712b…
10-20 21:29:26	Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Down	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x0f8d1a…
10-20 21:26:44	Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	66¢	$3	0xfd19fc…
10-20 21:24:17	Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Up	BUY	300	1¢	$3	0xfd2c06…
10-20 21:08:03	Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x554336…
10-20 21:08:02	Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x9f3d36…
10-20 21:08:02	Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x456bb9…
10-20 19:53:32	Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Down	SELL	15	92¢	$13	0x2636c4…
10-20 19:52:54	Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Down	BUY	4	82¢	$3	0xe27e02…
10-20 19:52:54	Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Down	BUY	4	82¢	$3	0x9fae02…
10-20 19:52:45	Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Down	BUY	3	93¢	$3	0x9a0ab7…
10-20 19:52:35	Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Down	BUY	4	73¢	$3	0xc4f5a4…
10-20 19:48:41	Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Up	BUY	3	96¢	$3	0x640e64…
10-20 19:02:00	Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Down	BUY	4	79¢	$3	0xc67019…
10-20 17:47:24	Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Up	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x7d619c…
10-20 17:47:23	Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Up	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0xdf3296…
10-20 17:44:18	Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Down	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0xeaf36e…
10-20 17:43:23	Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Up	BUY	3	88¢	$3	0x16488f…
10-20 17:42:59	Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Up	SELL	4	73¢	$3	0x8bf3f0…
10-20 17:41:54	Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Up	BUY	4	72¢	$3	0xcfd9d5…
10-20 17:29:11	Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Down	SELL	4	95¢	$4	0x0b004f…
10-20 17:28:59	Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Down	BUY	4	80¢	$3	0x679068…
10-20 17:24:03	Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Up	SELL	3	90¢	$3	0x943026…
10-20 17:22:06	Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Up	BUY	3	86¢	$3	0xbdc014…
10-20 17:18:20	Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Down	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0xd7a30e…
10-20 17:18:18	Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Down	BUY	12	86¢	$10	0x239797…
10-20 17:17:26	Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Up	BUY	4	71¢	$3	0x984852…