Able-Toughguy — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$699

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

68.5%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$3.13K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$41

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-12

last 09-25 12:29

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 25 days

Categories

Other

72% 53% -$385

Crypto

12% 33% -$86

Politics

9% 0% -$296

Sports

7% 50% +$68

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

2 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?	2	$413	224	224	+0	Yes	+$22	07-03 14:45
Will Strong Armenia win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National Assembly election?	3	$293	3,872	0	+3,872	No	-$293	05-23 11:52
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?	2	$234	135	135	+0	Yes	+$34	05-26 17:57
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?	2	$230	154	154	+0	No	+$30	05-29 05:20
UFC 331: Arman Tsarukyan vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card)	2	$210	288	0	+288	Arman Tsarukyan	+$78	09-20 00:07
Netanyahu out by June 30?	2	$201	104	104	+0	No	+$1	06-01 06:18
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	1	$200	213	0	+213	Yes	+$13	06-13 14:59
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	1	$200	220	0	+220	No	-$200	06-13 14:59
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?	2	$157	215	0	+215	No	-$157	06-02 08:19
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	2	$116	73	73	+0	Yes	+$16	06-12 15:48
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026?	2	$107	60	60	+0	Yes	+$7	05-27 10:11
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	1	$100	102	0	+102	Up	+$2	06-15 01:59
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026?	1	$75	498	0	+498	No	-$75	06-24 13:31
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	1	$73	204	0	+204	Down	-$73	05-16 18:04
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?	2	$70	51	51	+0	Yes	+$30	05-29 14:28
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026?	2	$67	38	38	+0	Yes	+$7	06-01 15:41
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026?	1	$60	60	0	+60	No	+$0	06-13 15:02
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026?	1	$50	84	0	+84	No	-$50	06-13 15:01
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	1	$50	53	0	+53	Down	+$3	05-13 22:29
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	1	$30	403	0	+403	No	-$30	09-25 12:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	2	$24	15	15	+0	Down	+$4	05-27 16:03
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	3	$21	40	40	+0	Up	+$19	05-17 01:49
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026?	2	$21	61	61	+0	No	-$19	06-01 15:41
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	1	$10	143	0	+143	Down	-$10	05-27 17:07
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	1	$10	29	0	+29	No	-$10	05-12 02:52
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	1	$10	11	0	+11	Up	-$10	05-27 17:02
Timberwolves vs. Spurs	1	$10	45	0	+45	Spurs	-$10	05-12 21:32
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	1	$10	10	0	+10	Down	+$0	05-31 06:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	1	$10	10	0	+10	Up	+$0	05-13 22:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	1	$9	12	0	+12	Down	+$3	05-30 16:24

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-25 12:29:35	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	403	7¢	$30	0xb075da…
09-20 00:07:21	UFC 331: Arman Tsarukyan vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card)	Arman Tsarukyan	BUY	14	73¢	$10	0x8c44cd…
09-20 00:06:40	UFC 331: Arman Tsarukyan vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card)	Arman Tsarukyan	BUY	274	73¢	$200	0x467be9…
07-03 14:46:07	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	62	3¢	$2	0xba9061…
07-03 14:45:44	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?	Yes	SELL	224	97¢	$217	0x146d6b…
07-03 13:18:59	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	224	87¢	$196	0x165236…
06-24 13:31:59	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026?	Yes	BUY	498	15¢	$75	0x484b4a…
06-15 01:59:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Up	BUY	102	98¢	$100	0x53192f…
06-13 15:02:15	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026?	No	BUY	60	100¢	$60	0x280e36…
06-13 15:01:37	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	84	59¢	$50	0x0aba43…
06-13 14:59:37	Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	BUY	220	91¢	$200	0x17958c…
06-13 14:59:10	Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	Yes	BUY	213	94¢	$200	0x84f309…
06-12 15:48:07	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	Yes	SELL	73	90¢	$66	0x1eec70…
06-12 12:37:43	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	Yes	BUY	73	68¢	$50	0x6a4386…
06-05 15:39:21	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?	Yes	BUY	275	1¢	$2	0xdaf17b…
06-03 17:26:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Up	BUY	2	75¢	$1	0x206af1…
06-02 08:19:02	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	148	67¢	$99	0xc91b34…
06-02 06:35:37	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	67	86¢	$58	0xb358eb…
06-01 15:41:34	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026?	Yes	SELL	38	99¢	$37	0xc263a1…
06-01 15:41:34	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026?	Yes	SELL	61	1¢	$1	0x6df8aa…
06-01 14:15:16	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026?	Yes	BUY	38	80¢	$30	0x840e4b…
06-01 06:18:32	Netanyahu out by June 30?	No	SELL	104	97¢	$101	0x79d273…
06-01 06:17:34	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026?	Yes	BUY	61	33¢	$20	0x6402fd…
05-31 07:03:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xf6d406…
05-31 06:44:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xe469d9…
05-30 20:07:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Down	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0xb1346d…
05-30 16:24:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Down	BUY	12	73¢	$9	0x4c4466…
05-29 14:28:54	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?	Yes	SELL	51	99¢	$50	0xe4449e…
05-29 08:32:06	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?	Yes	BUY	51	39¢	$20	0x027cdd…
05-29 06:13:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	Down	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0xdc2083…
05-29 05:20:21	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?	Yes	SELL	154	85¢	$130	0x68f27a…
05-28 17:39:36	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?	Yes	BUY	154	65¢	$100	0x4c0f9e…
05-27 17:12:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Up	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0x16e6ff…
05-27 17:07:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Up	BUY	143	7¢	$10	0x412b1b…
05-27 17:02:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Down	BUY	11	89¢	$10	0x4fc612…
05-27 16:03:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Up	SELL	15	90¢	$14	0x642d10…
05-27 16:02:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Up	BUY	15	66¢	$10	0x508b99…
05-27 10:11:49	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026?	Yes	SELL	60	95¢	$57	0x0bc45d…
05-27 06:28:54	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	60	84¢	$50	0xcf00eb…
05-26 17:57:33	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?	Yes	SELL	135	100¢	$134	0x85785d…
05-26 07:14:01	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	135	74¢	$100	0x80dbd7…
05-23 11:52:27	Will Strong Armenia win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National Assembly election?	Yes	BUY	1,120	8¢	$93	0x85ccb8…
05-20 18:15:06	Will Strong Armenia win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National Assembly election?	Yes	BUY	1,444	7¢	$100	0x120989…
05-19 08:23:33	Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xf5f399…
05-19 08:23:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Up	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0xb2c088…
05-18 21:44:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Up	SELL	25	7¢	$2	0x8978ee…
05-18 21:44:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Up	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x892d8c…
05-17 21:34:15	Solana Up or Down - May 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x176efd…
05-17 20:39:16	Solana Up or Down - May 17, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Up	SELL	14	8¢	$1	0x510800…
05-17 20:38:36	Solana Up or Down - May 17, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Up	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x43da7d…
05-17 01:59:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x8c821d…
05-17 01:58:59	Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Up	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0xc7a3dc…
05-17 01:54:07	Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Down	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0xc0095d…
05-17 01:53:54	Solana Up or Down - May 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Down	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x4aaa53…
05-17 01:49:55	Solana Up or Down - May 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Down	SELL	10	34¢	$3	0xc501f2…
05-17 01:49:32	Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Down	SELL	40	50¢	$20	0xe18916…
05-17 01:48:15	Solana Up or Down - May 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Down	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x97394d…
05-17 01:48:08	Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Down	BUY	31	2¢	$1	0xc15f2e…
05-17 01:48:08	Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Down	BUY	9	2¢	$0	0x2dcca4…
05-17 01:44:40	Solana Up or Down - May 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Up	BUY	16	2¢	$0	0xc6b56d…
05-17 01:43:56	Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x3c3afa…
05-17 01:43:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x2bd12a…
05-16 18:04:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Up	BUY	204	36¢	$73	0xca4322…
05-15 10:34:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Down	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0x39f5fa…
05-15 10:28:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Up	BUY	62	8¢	$5	0xd79295…
05-15 10:25:38	Netanyahu out by June 30?	No	BUY	104	96¢	$100	0x576afe…
05-13 22:39:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Down	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x714efc…
05-13 22:32:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0x1ef9af…
05-13 22:29:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Down	BUY	53	94¢	$50	0xa2508c…
05-13 22:24:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Up	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x411ef0…
05-13 22:18:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Up	BUY	155	3¢	$5	0xa0c5a8…
05-12 21:33:09	Will Trump visit China by June 30?	No	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x7246c0…
05-12 21:33:02	Will Trump visit China by May 31?	No	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0x81dced…
05-12 21:32:57	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0x9f420c…
05-12 21:32:13	Timberwolves vs. Spurs	Timberwolves	BUY	45	22¢	$10	0x061411…
05-12 02:57:21	Will Strong Armenia win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National Assembly election?	Yes	BUY	1,308	8¢	$100	0xb45ee1…
05-12 02:52:08	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	Yes	BUY	29	34¢	$10	0x504a74…