Equal-Normalization — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$394

Unrealized P&L

-$38

Hit rate

75.9%

Resolved

964

Trades

1,809

lifetime

Volume

$27.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$15

Open exposure

$12

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-27 20:58

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 149 days

Categories

Other

97% 63% +$176

Sports

3% 46% +$243

Tech

0% 50% -$15

Crypto

0% 36% -$10

Pop-Culture

0% 100% +$0

Politics

0% 50% -$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

71 active days in 12wk • peak 68 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026	No		+56	$10	19¢	$11	+$1	09-27 06:35
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-10-27?	Yes		+70	$40	2¢	$2	-$38	10-27 20:58

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	11	$654	416	297	+119	No	+$18	10-05 07:05
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?	5	$602	304	304	+0	No	+$2	09-25 15:50
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	9	$486	330	330	+0	No	-$72	10-05 05:46
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	12	$435	400	50	+350	No	+$13	10-10 08:21
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	9	$420	220	220	+0	No	+$18	10-13 21:49
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	4	$398	320	100	+220	No	-$12	10-10 08:19
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	6	$385	200	200	+0	No	+$13	10-24 07:47
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?	5	$361	377	0	+377	No	+$16	09-30 13:53
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	3	$342	200	150	+50	No	+$8	10-25 07:51
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	7	$294	200	200	+0	Yes	-$40	10-27 15:15
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	3	$290	150	150	+0	No	+$10	10-15 11:58
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	3	$289	150	150	+0	open	—	10-27 18:50
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	3	$273	290	0	+290	No	+$17	10-05 04:37
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from August 25 to September 1, 2026?	2	$250	257	0	+257	No	+$7	08-28 18:58
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	5	$246	130	130	+0	No	+$11	10-15 11:58
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	3	$240	200	52	+148	open	—	10-27 09:45
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from August 25 to September 1, 2026?	3	$228	241	16	+225	No	+$23	08-29 10:15
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	2	$210	110	110	+0	No	+$10	09-25 05:17
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	2	$209	109	109	+0	No	+$9	09-23 20:02
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026?	2	$204	105	105	+0	No	+$4	09-19 20:15
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	2	$204	200	12	+188	No	+$8	10-15 12:00
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026?	2	$203	105	105	+0	No	+$3	09-18 06:43
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026?	3	$203	105	105	+0	No	+$3	09-24 06:00
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026?	2	$201	108	108	+0	No	+$1	09-24 06:21
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from September 1 to September 8, 2026?	2	$200	105	105	+0	No	+$0	09-04 17:36
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 25 to September 1, 2026?	1	$200	205	0	+205	No	+$5	08-30 07:02
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from August 28 to September 4, 2026?	1	$200	205	0	+205	No	+$5	08-29 10:18
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026?	1	$198	200	0	+200	No	+$2	09-02 06:47
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026?	2	$197	202	0	+202	No	+$5	09-25 15:58
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	3	$196	100	100	+0	No	+$2	10-19 10:42

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 20:58:06	Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-10-27?	Yes	BUY	70	57¢	$40	0x98f2b8…
10-27 18:50:56	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	No	SELL	150	100¢	$150	0x2d9205…
10-27 15:43:14	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	28	90¢	$26	0x29c8c2…
10-27 15:43:12	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	72	90¢	$64	0x1df922…
10-27 15:15:39	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	SELL	50	41¢	$20	0x25302b…
10-27 11:57:53	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	No	SELL	19	76¢	$15	0x394b59…
10-27 10:58:57	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	76¢	$1	0xa72440…
10-27 10:57:08	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	76¢	$1	0x8d2d0a…
10-27 10:56:26	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	76¢	$1	0xb3482d…
10-27 10:55:50	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	76¢	$1	0x004092…
10-27 10:54:42	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	76¢	$1	0xd3bedc…
10-27 10:54:35	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	76¢	$1	0x41a6eb…
10-27 10:54:32	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	76¢	$1	0x632452…
10-27 10:54:27	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	76¢	$1	0xc106fd…
10-27 10:51:26	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	76¢	$1	0xc3dcbc…
10-27 10:50:39	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	No	SELL	0	76¢	$0	0x11eddb…
10-27 09:57:50	Counter-Strike: Alliance vs FaZe (BO3) - Tesla Cup Group A	Alliance	SELL	10	31¢	$3	0xeb8f40…
10-27 09:57:38	Counter-Strike: Alliance vs FaZe (BO3) - Tesla Cup Group A	Alliance	BUY	10	32¢	$3	0xb79b7a…
10-27 09:46:32	Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs Liquid (+1.5)	Liquid	BUY	10	58¢	$6	0x6bbbc1…
10-27 09:46:03	Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Legacy (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage	Legacy	BUY	20	56¢	$11	0x776953…
10-27 09:45:30	Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs DENDELE CS (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage	Nemiga	BUY	20	59¢	$12	0x849f03…
10-27 09:45:17	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	No	SELL	52	100¢	$52	0x85ffb4…
10-27 09:44:06	Counter-Strike: magic vs BIG (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 5 Playoffs	BIG	BUY	20	58¢	$12	0x4d3094…
10-27 09:43:12	Counter-Strike: Alliance vs FaZe (BO3) - Tesla Cup Group A	FaZe	BUY	20	69¢	$14	0x824d93…
10-27 09:42:21	Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 5 Playoffs	MIBR	BUY	10	67¢	$7	0x5f173f…
10-27 09:40:59	Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage	Aurora Gaming	BUY	20	74¢	$15	0x5cf24f…
10-27 09:36:45	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	No	BUY	100	93¢	$93	0x5f39a0…
10-27 09:36:29	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	No	BUY	100	94¢	$94	0xae5a26…
10-27 09:36:11	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	No	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0x00dfa0…
10-27 09:35:39	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	100	91¢	$91	0x517ecb…
10-26 12:57:51	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	No	SELL	50	89¢	$44	0xacd432…
10-26 11:00:57	Counter-Strike: Spirit vs FURIA (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage	Spirit	BUY	30	64¢	$19	0x74ceeb…
10-26 11:00:00	Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage	Natus Vincere	BUY	30	64¢	$19	0xeb431c…
10-26 10:59:51	Counter-Strike: B8 vs K27 (BO3) - Tesla Cup Group A	B8	BUY	30	61¢	$18	0x712493…
10-26 10:56:12	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	100	93¢	$93	0x81334c…
10-25 13:42:24	Counter-Strike: G2 vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage	Aurora Gaming	BUY	10	56¢	$6	0xcc788d…
10-25 13:40:53	Counter-Strike: paiN vs BESTIA (BO3) - Circuit X Curitiba Playoffs	paiN	BUY	10	58¢	$6	0xcaf271…
10-25 10:39:18	Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Nemiga (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage	BetBoom Team	SELL	30	85¢	$26	0xf33f48…
10-25 09:45:44	FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: FC Barcelona O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	40	73¢	$29	0x3fa583…
10-25 09:44:36	FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	40	75¢	$30	0x2a3209…
10-25 09:04:42	Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Liquid (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage	FUT Esports	SELL	30	94¢	$28	0x894d4e…
10-25 07:51:41	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0x7c6889…
10-25 07:43:45	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	20	86¢	$17	0x7f4685…
10-25 07:42:27	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	100	86¢	$86	0xbe8f70…
10-25 07:34:24	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	10	86¢	$9	0x5f3ea4…
10-25 07:34:03	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	SELL	150	71¢	$106	0xe48743…
10-25 07:31:09	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	10	85¢	$9	0x7048c9…
10-25 07:30:59	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	50	86¢	$43	0xd9e8e4…
10-25 07:30:24	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	SELL	50	100¢	$50	0x706d1d…
10-25 07:27:54	Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Nemiga (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage	BetBoom Team	BUY	30	59¢	$18	0xb98965…
10-25 07:27:39	Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Liquid (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage	FUT Esports	BUY	30	73¢	$22	0xf9544f…
10-25 05:37:38	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	50	86¢	$43	0x871ca3…
10-25 05:37:23	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	50	92¢	$46	0xa2ca07…
10-25 05:37:12	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	50	96¢	$48	0xd8fe3a…
10-25 05:36:21	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	50	75¢	$38	0xfe6ff5…
10-24 15:03:30	Counter-Strike: BESTIA vs Imperial (BO3) - Circuit X Curitiba Playoffs	Imperial	BUY	20	67¢	$13	0xa9c618…
10-24 14:55:57	Counter-Strike: Galorys vs paiN (BO3) - Circuit X Curitiba Playoffs	paiN	BUY	20	58¢	$12	0xf2a97e…
10-24 07:58:02	Will MOUZ Win the PGL Masters Bucharest 2026?	No	BUY	30	89¢	$27	0xf07dc9…
10-24 07:49:54	elon musk of tweets october 27 november 3 2026 220 239	No	BUY	100	88¢	$88	0x297c23…
10-24 07:49:39	elon musk of tweets october 27 november 3 2026 200 219	No	BUY	100	91¢	$91	0xef0eac…
10-24 07:49:27	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	No	BUY	150	96¢	$144	0x7b1b29…
10-24 07:48:18	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	100	92¢	$92	0x134781…
10-24 07:48:06	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0xbf40b8…
10-24 07:47:41	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	50	83¢	$42	0x806c56…
10-24 07:47:36	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	SELL	50	100¢	$50	0xb1c6b8…
10-24 07:31:26	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	SELL	100	90¢	$90	0x8479de…
10-24 07:01:09	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	SELL	19	100¢	$19	0xa176dc…
10-24 07:01:03	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	SELL	56	100¢	$56	0xb5c367…
10-24 07:00:48	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	SELL	75	100¢	$75	0x6f8fa6…
10-24 07:00:17	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	200	96¢	$192	0x58f7ec…
10-23 16:49:05	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	5	88¢	$4	0x04cfdf…
10-23 16:02:35	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	100	95¢	$95	0x9031a8…
10-23 15:54:29	Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0xc3a15a…
10-23 15:53:35	Manchester United FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x08695b…
10-23 15:53:09	Crystal Palace FC vs. Newcastle United FC: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	5	66¢	$3	0xf06952…
10-23 15:52:14	Liverpool FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	5	66¢	$3	0x8c483a…
10-23 15:47:23	Aston Villa FC vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x620b62…
10-23 15:42:05	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	No	BUY	15	14¢	$2	0x922e47…
10-23 13:58:06	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	No	SELL	8	35¢	$3	0x65f87c…
10-23 13:57:57	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	No	SELL	15	35¢	$5	0x0c6b74…
10-23 13:57:56	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	No	SELL	8	35¢	$3	0x634abb…
10-23 13:06:35	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	85	88¢	$75	0x55f0f9…
10-23 11:20:08	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	10	88¢	$9	0x0b948d…
10-23 11:11:03	LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Karmine Corp (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage	Anyone's Legend	BUY	20	65¢	$13	0x2efc18…
10-23 11:08:47	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	No	BUY	30	40¢	$12	0x4fe215…
10-23 11:08:29	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	No	SELL	100	64¢	$64	0x400e01…
10-23 10:50:09	LoL: G2 Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage	Dplus KIA	SELL	20	60¢	$12	0x7d1094…
10-23 10:49:56	LoL: G2 Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage	Dplus KIA	BUY	20	61¢	$12	0x1d4877…
10-23 10:49:26	LoL: G2 Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage	Dplus KIA	BUY	20	61¢	$12	0x7e40b1…
10-23 09:58:08	Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - DraculaN Playoffs	Eternal Fire	BUY	20	56¢	$11	0x932f48…
10-22 08:50:54	Counter-Strike: Sinners vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - DraculaN Playoffs	Sinners	BUY	20	55¢	$11	0x8fde43…
10-22 07:35:39	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	No	SELL	98	98¢	$96	0x4fa37b…
10-22 06:43:08	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	100	92¢	$92	0x2ff09b…
10-22 06:42:47	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	85	98¢	$83	0xcbbf5f…
10-22 06:42:47	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	15	98¢	$15	0x57ff83…
10-22 06:39:00	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0xfe75c9…
10-22 06:38:06	Nuggets vs. Thunder	Thunder	BUY	10	75¢	$8	0x5056b3…
10-22 06:37:00	Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs FaZe (BO3) - DraculaN Playoffs	FaZe	BUY	20	57¢	$11	0xa76283…
10-21 17:58:33	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	67	93¢	$63	0xc020bf…
10-21 17:40:06	Will Lille OSC vs. Galatasaray SK end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	10	35¢	$4	0x8f4c7a…