Able-Mutation — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$922

Unrealized P&L

-$85

Hit rate

38.0%

Resolved

183

Trades

614

lifetime

Volume

$24.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$39

Open exposure

$11

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-17

last 09-29 06:08

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 92 days

Categories

Other

43% 17% -$957

Politics

32% 30% -$7

Tech

20% 33% +$2

Crypto

3% 33% -$13

Sports

1% 38% +$55

Pop-Culture

0% 0% -$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

8 active days in 12wk • peak 40 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes		+921	$83	1¢	$10	-$73	08-18 20:45
Will OpenAI announce a phone in 2026?	Yes		+46	$13	3¢	$2	-$11	05-03 14:06

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	21	$3.0K	1,556	1,556	+0	Yes	+$0	04-28 07:51
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	6	$1.5K	750	750	+0	Yes	$0	04-09 09:11
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	2	$1.1K	600	600	+0	No	+$0	04-09 05:33
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026?	15	$1.0K	525	525	+0	No	+$0	04-28 09:58
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	3	$1.0K	900	900	+0	No	-$1	04-27 09:50
Will Rafael López Aliaga and Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff?	7	$1.0K	800	800	+0	No	-$63	04-16 08:12
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	8	$1.0K	900	900	+0	Yes	-$2	04-27 10:26
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	2	$784	400	400	+0	Yes	$0	04-02 07:28
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	3	$737	400	400	+0	No	+$0	04-28 13:59
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	2	$668	400	400	+0	No	-$4	04-28 13:17
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	6	$574	300	300	+0	Yes	+$1	04-06 04:26
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	1	$410	670	0	+670	No	-$410	06-25 14:15
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	15	$386	200	200	+0	No	+$0	05-07 06:25
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	2	$385	200	200	+0	No	+$0	04-06 04:26
Will the Bank of Mexico announce a decrease at the May meeting?	7	$383	200	200	+0	Yes	$0	05-07 11:09
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	4	$381	200	200	+0	No	-$4	05-27 06:35
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	2	$361	200	200	+0	No	-$19	05-07 10:02
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	1	$322	488	0	+488	Yes	+$166	06-23 13:09
Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04?	1	$310	575	0	+575	Yes	+$264	07-04 07:10
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	1	$294	700	0	+700	Yes	-$294	06-17 19:31
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	1	$288	600	0	+600	No	-$288	06-27 07:25
Will Colombia win on 2026-07-07?	1	$258	600	0	+600	No	-$258	07-07 16:26
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30?	1	$238	540	0	+540	Yes	+$302	06-30 06:13
will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	4	$210	105	105	+0	No	+$0	03-30 05:53
Trump out as President by June 30?	2	$197	100	100	+0	No	$0	05-19 05:06
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	4	$197	100	100	+0	No	+$0	05-18 16:05
Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026?	3	$194	100	100	+0	Yes	+$0	05-18 17:39
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 7th 659	4	$194	100	100	+0	No	+$0	04-02 08:10
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	3	$190	100	100	+0	Yes	+$1	05-27 06:14
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	2	$189	100	100	+0	No	+$0	05-18 17:06

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-29 06:08:56	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 25°C on September 29?	Yes	SELL	20	5¢	$1	0x6af554…
09-29 06:08:17	Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	51	27¢	$14	0x19afc2…
09-29 06:00:48	Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	51	29¢	$15	0x935302…
09-29 06:00:26	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 25°C on September 29?	Yes	BUY	20	11¢	$2	0x29bc2d…
09-29 05:55:00	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 25°C on September 29?	Yes	SELL	25	10¢	$3	0x58870e…
09-29 05:55:00	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 25°C on September 29?	Yes	SELL	18	10¢	$2	0x3a1314…
09-29 05:53:00	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 25°C on September 29?	Yes	BUY	6	15¢	$1	0xd922b2…
09-29 05:53:00	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 25°C on September 29?	Yes	BUY	14	15¢	$2	0xc8c21c…
09-29 05:50:42	Will MrBeast's next video get at least 45 million views on day 1?	Yes	SELL	20	20¢	$4	0xbd6d4d…
09-29 05:50:38	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 25°C on September 29?	Yes	BUY	19	18¢	$3	0x22f3f9…
09-29 05:50:38	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 25°C on September 29?	Yes	BUY	1	18¢	$0	0x0608e7…
09-29 05:50:18	Will MrBeast's next video get at least 45 million views on day 1?	Yes	BUY	20	20¢	$4	0x5f9e54…
09-29 05:42:42	will quinton byfield record 30 goals in the 2026 27 regular season	Yes	SELL	20	15¢	$3	0x903949…
09-29 05:39:23	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 25°C on September 29?	Yes	SELL	9	16¢	$1	0x5736de…
09-29 05:39:23	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 25°C on September 29?	Yes	SELL	14	16¢	$2	0x406f60…
09-29 05:38:57	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 25°C on September 29?	Yes	BUY	3	11¢	$0	0x318ffa…
09-29 05:35:35	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 25°C on September 29?	Yes	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x522ef5…
09-29 05:33:15	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 25°C on September 29?	Yes	SELL	3	17¢	$1	0x1c39c0…
09-29 05:32:21	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 25°C on September 29?	Yes	BUY	1	22¢	$0	0x896947…
09-29 05:32:11	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 25°C on September 29?	Yes	BUY	12	22¢	$3	0xcebe55…
09-29 05:32:11	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 25°C on September 29?	Yes	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x5de4f6…
09-29 05:15:03	Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	51	29¢	$15	0x916151…
09-29 05:11:42	Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	51	36¢	$19	0x00655c…
09-29 05:03:53	Will Quinton Byfield record 30+ goals in the 2026-27 regular season?	Yes	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x63d634…
09-29 04:59:54	Will MrBeast's next video get at least 45 million views on day 1?	Yes	SELL	20	12¢	$2	0xa4c2e4…
09-29 04:49:42	Will MrBeast's next video get at least 45 million views on day 1?	Yes	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x2bd81f…
09-29 04:13:17	Will the biggest earthquake on September 28, 2026 be 5.7 to 5.8?	Yes	BUY	26	4¢	$1	0xb54080…
09-26 06:42:29	will the announcers say safety during the ravens vs cowboys game 20260928	No	SELL	20	1¢	$0	0xf3829e…
09-26 06:34:12	Will MrBeast's next video get 70.0 million or more views in week 1?	No	SELL	20	10¢	$2	0x36a35b…
09-26 05:54:23	will the announcers say safety during the rams vs broncos game 20260928	No	SELL	20	5¢	$1	0xe13cae…
09-26 05:42:02	Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1?	No	SELL	13	3¢	$0	0x3c4024…
09-26 05:41:50	Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1?	No	SELL	27	4¢	$1	0x5f27f5…
09-26 05:41:36	Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week 1?	Yes	SELL	40	5¢	$2	0xddd74e…
09-26 05:41:36	Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1?	No	BUY	20	6¢	$1	0xb4df21…
09-26 05:40:57	Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week 1?	Yes	BUY	20	7¢	$1	0x1b0525…
09-26 05:37:29	Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week 1?	Yes	SELL	20	8¢	$2	0x83cf97…
09-26 05:36:53	Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1?	No	SELL	20	7¢	$1	0xadbd3b…
09-26 05:36:11	Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week 1?	Yes	BUY	1	8¢	$0	0xf0d637…
09-26 05:36:11	Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week 1?	Yes	BUY	3	8¢	$0	0xa46a73…
09-26 05:36:11	Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week 1?	Yes	BUY	10	8¢	$1	0x4f4e53…
09-26 05:36:11	Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week 1?	Yes	BUY	5	8¢	$0	0x347508…
09-26 05:36:11	Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1?	No	BUY	20	9¢	$2	0x01957f…
09-26 05:34:38	Will there be exactly 2 Codex weekly usage limit resets in the week of September 21?	No	SELL	10	10¢	$1	0xa446b9…
09-26 05:33:53	Will MrBeast's next video get between 69.5 and 70.0 million views in week 1?	Yes	SELL	16	10¢	$2	0xd01b2c…
09-26 05:32:48	Will MrBeast's next video get between 69.5 and 70.0 million views in week 1?	Yes	BUY	10	11¢	$1	0xa9e707…
09-26 05:32:48	Will MrBeast's next video get 70.0 million or more views in week 1?	No	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x9dd130…
09-26 05:32:48	Will MrBeast's next video get between 69.5 and 70.0 million views in week 1?	Yes	BUY	6	11¢	$1	0x9d5dc1…
09-26 05:31:27	Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week 1?	Yes	BUY	20	13¢	$3	0xafa9a2…
09-26 05:31:24	Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1?	No	BUY	20	13¢	$3	0x5741c8…
09-26 05:12:09	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on September 26?	Yes	SELL	15	10¢	$2	0xe54fdd…
09-26 05:11:02	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on September 26?	Yes	SELL	5	11¢	$1	0x08f0e4…
09-26 05:10:20	will bitget resume withdrawals by september 27 2026	Yes	SELL	8	7¢	$1	0x011d92…
09-26 05:09:20	will bitget resume withdrawals by september 27 2026	Yes	SELL	195	8¢	$16	0x752baa…
09-26 05:08:29	will the announcers say safety during the ravens vs cowboys game 20260928	No	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x0b93c4…
09-26 05:07:50	will the announcers say safety during the rams vs broncos game 20260928	No	BUY	20	9¢	$2	0x3db9bd…
09-26 05:04:24	will the life of a showgirl the encore first week sales be at least 300k	Yes	SELL	20	34¢	$7	0xe713d0…
09-26 04:59:42	Will "Patient Zero - Taylor Swift" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of October 10?	No	SELL	20	4¢	$1	0x2316f5…
09-26 04:52:00	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on September 26?	Yes	BUY	13	11¢	$1	0xb8290e…
09-26 04:51:59	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on September 26?	Yes	BUY	7	11¢	$1	0x3b07f1…
09-26 04:51:09	will the life of a showgirl the encore first week sales be at least 300k	Yes	BUY	20	38¢	$8	0x6cad18…
09-26 04:51:00	will bitget resume withdrawals by september 27 2026	Yes	SELL	199	7¢	$14	0xd864e3…
09-26 04:50:17	will bitget resume withdrawals by september 27 2026	Yes	BUY	201	8¢	$15	0x1e692f…
09-26 04:48:39	will bitget resume withdrawals by september 27 2026	Yes	BUY	201	8¢	$16	0x8ebb70…
09-26 04:48:24	Will "Patient Zero - Taylor Swift" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of October 10?	No	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x93f147…
09-26 04:46:44	will bitget resume withdrawals by september 27 2026	Yes	SELL	201	8¢	$15	0xfe2900…
09-26 04:41:26	will bitget resume withdrawals by september 27 2026	Yes	BUY	201	8¢	$15	0x4a5c02…
09-26 04:40:09	Will there be exactly 2 Codex weekly usage limit resets in the week of September 21?	No	BUY	10	11¢	$1	0xb03367…
09-24 12:45:54	Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on September 24?	Yes	SELL	20	1¢	$0	0xe80622…
09-24 12:45:24	Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on September 24?	Yes	SELL	20	4¢	$1	0xb34bf2…
09-24 12:44:47	Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on September 24?	Yes	BUY	2	5¢	$0	0xc9cc8a…
09-24 12:44:45	Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on September 24?	Yes	BUY	18	5¢	$1	0xa7fcdb…
09-24 12:40:30	Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on September 24?	Yes	BUY	12	9¢	$1	0x13f20a…
09-24 12:38:01	Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 61.25 million views on day 5?	No	SELL	20	4¢	$1	0xe149a5…
09-24 12:37:47	Will MrBeast's next video get between 61.25 and 62.5 million views on day 5?	Yes	SELL	20	4¢	$1	0x1138f7…
09-24 12:30:06	Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on September 24?	Yes	BUY	9	10¢	$1	0x015690…
09-24 12:27:57	Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on September 24?	Yes	SELL	9	11¢	$1	0x72b6eb…
09-24 12:27:31	Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on September 24?	Yes	BUY	9	10¢	$1	0x87d1a8…
09-24 12:25:28	Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 61.25 million views on day 5?	No	BUY	20	7¢	$1	0x3ac264…
09-24 12:24:24	Will MrBeast's next video get between 61.25 and 62.5 million views on day 5?	Yes	BUY	20	7¢	$1	0x40bcce…
09-23 09:08:20	JD Vance Republican nomination odds leader on October 31?	No	SELL	50	7¢	$4	0x759197…
09-23 09:04:31	Will MrBeast's next video get between 56.5 and 58.0 million views on day 4?	No	SELL	20	23¢	$5	0xa9f4db…
09-23 08:54:43	JD Vance Republican nomination odds leader on October 31?	No	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0x984df8…
09-23 08:52:13	Will MrBeast's next video get between 55.0 and 56.5 million views on day 4?	Yes	SELL	20	19¢	$4	0x82a30b…
09-23 08:51:50	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on September 23?	Yes	SELL	20	12¢	$2	0xf37a77…
09-23 08:51:16	Will MrBeast's next video get between 56.5 and 58.0 million views on day 4?	No	SELL	10	20¢	$2	0x0b9dc7…
09-23 08:51:01	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on September 23?	Yes	BUY	1	17¢	$0	0xdbfb5d…
09-23 08:50:35	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on September 23?	Yes	BUY	12	17¢	$2	0x5b7101…
09-23 08:50:35	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on September 23?	Yes	BUY	7	17¢	$1	0x2d1133…
09-23 08:50:28	Will MrBeast's next video get between 55.0 and 56.5 million views on day 4?	Yes	BUY	20	20¢	$4	0xa0899a…
09-23 08:50:28	Will MrBeast's next video get between 56.5 and 58.0 million views on day 4?	No	BUY	20	22¢	$4	0x0517af…
09-23 08:49:44	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on September 23?	Yes	BUY	0	17¢	$0	0xb5d75f…
09-23 08:47:08	will sense and sensibility score at least 85 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer 20261019	Yes	SELL	20	10¢	$2	0xb90060…
09-23 08:39:43	Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on September 23?	No	SELL	20	16¢	$3	0xfa5c2f…
09-23 08:39:11	Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on September 23?	No	BUY	20	17¢	$3	0xaa47a9…
09-23 08:29:26	Will MrBeast's next video get between 56.5 and 58.0 million views on day 4?	No	SELL	10	21¢	$2	0xdce3c4…
09-23 08:26:22	Will MrBeast's next video get between 56.5 and 58.0 million views on day 4?	No	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0xed31c1…
09-23 08:06:46	will sense and sensibility score at least 85 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer 20261019	Yes	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0xffba44…
09-23 08:00:47	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on September 23?	No	SELL	20	3¢	$1	0xd97897…
09-23 07:59:35	us x iran diplomatic meeting by march 31 2027 20260922	Yes	SELL	10	68¢	$7	0xc39835…
09-23 07:59:01	us x iran diplomatic meeting by march 31 2027 20260922	Yes	BUY	10	70¢	$7	0xd9e01a…