Flustered-Willow — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$122

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

61.4%

Resolved

829

Trades

2,468

lifetime

Volume

$5.80K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-16 10:17

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 37 days

Categories

Crypto

98% 63% -$104

Other

2% 45% -$14

Sports

1% 60% -$4

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

4 active days in 12wk • peak 73 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-01 17:30 UTC	19	$407	265	229	+36	Up	+$0	01-01 17:39
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-01 18:00 UTC	10	$234	126	123	+3	Down	+$0	01-01 18:12
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-01 17:00 UTC	24	$228	218	184	+34	Up	-$8	01-01 17:12
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-01 17:45 UTC	26	$198	149	114	+35	Down	-$1	01-01 17:58
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-01 16:45 UTC	21	$172	159	135	+24	Up	-$8	01-01 16:59
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-01 17:15 UTC	15	$111	85	58	+27	Up	+$2	01-01 17:25
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-01 16:45 UTC	11	$107	65	63	+2	Up	+$3	01-01 16:58
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-01 16:00 UTC	9	$101	63	51	+12	Down	+$1	01-01 16:10
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-06 14:55 UTC	17	$98	83	42	+41	Up	-$30	03-06 14:59
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-01 16:15 UTC	15	$97	74	67	+7	Up	+$2	01-01 16:29
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-06 14:40 UTC	15	$90	86	51	+35	Up	+$13	03-06 14:43
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-01 17:00 UTC	13	$78	56	48	+8	Up	-$2	01-01 17:12
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-06 14:45 UTC	10	$74	82	8	+74	Down	+$2	03-06 14:48
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-01 17:45 UTC	12	$51	36	29	+7	Down	-$4	01-01 17:59
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-01 15:45 UTC	16	$51	41	27	+15	Up	-$2	01-01 15:59
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-01 18:00 UTC	9	$46	29	25	+4	Down	$0	01-01 18:14
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-06 14:10 UTC	13	$43	49	39	+10	Up	+$2	03-06 14:14
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-06 14:35 UTC	9	$42	50	6	+44	Down	+$2	03-06 14:37
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-06 01:50 UTC	12	$40	55	7	+48	Up	-$3	03-06 01:54
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-06 00:15 UTC	14	$39	51	29	+22	Down	+$17	03-06 00:19
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-01 17:15 UTC	12	$39	31	24	+7	Up	+$2	01-01 17:22
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-06 14:30 UTC	9	$33	42	3	+39	Down	+$4	03-06 14:34
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-06 12:40 UTC	7	$32	104	4	+100	Down	-$13	03-06 12:45
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-06 00:10 UTC	12	$31	50	25	+25	Up	-$5	03-06 00:14
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-06 14:05 UTC	5	$31	36	0	+36	Down	+$5	03-06 14:08
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-01 16:30 UTC	12	$30	28	20	+8	Down	+$1	01-01 16:42
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-06 01:15 UTC	10	$29	38	13	+25	Up	+$3	03-06 01:19
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-01 16:30 UTC	12	$28	29	14	+15	Down	-$8	01-01 16:44
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-05 23:50 UTC	8	$27	31	21	+10	Up	+$4	03-05 23:54
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-06 17:15 UTC	11	$27	37	9	+28	Up	-$13	03-06 17:19

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-16 10:17:55	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-16 10:15 UTC	Down	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x55d8f8…
10-16 10:09:34	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-16 10:05 UTC	Up	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x19ffd9…
10-16 10:02:27	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-16 10:00 UTC	Up	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x852676…
10-16 09:58:37	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-16 09:55 UTC	Up	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x2f8a46…
10-16 09:54:16	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-16 09:50 UTC	Up	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0xab28e7…
10-14 21:48:52	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 21:45 UTC	Up	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0xba8d12…
10-14 21:48:48	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 21:45 UTC	Up	BUY	2	83¢	$2	0xeb44c2…
10-14 21:47:24	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 21:45 UTC	Down	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x56529a…
10-14 21:46:34	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 21:45 UTC	Down	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x976881…
10-14 21:45:31	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 21:45 UTC	Down	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x800d85…
10-14 21:45:15	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 21:45 UTC	Down	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x1e906f…
10-14 21:43:45	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 21:40 UTC	Up	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0x12a8db…
10-14 21:43:28	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 21:40 UTC	Up	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xab99e0…
10-14 21:42:30	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 21:40 UTC	Up	SELL	10	25¢	$3	0xf3d89e…
10-14 21:40:48	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 21:40 UTC	Up	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x9032c0…
10-14 21:40:42	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 21:40 UTC	Up	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0xbf175a…
10-14 21:39:40	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-14 21:30 UTC	Down	SELL	5	29¢	$2	0xd88c4b…
10-14 21:39:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 21:35 UTC	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xa5b8f4…
10-14 21:38:49	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 21:35 UTC	Up	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0xf92a08…
10-14 21:37:09	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 21:35 UTC	Up	SELL	3	79¢	$2	0x299926…
10-14 21:35:25	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 21:35 UTC	Up	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x47e949…
10-14 21:33:52	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-14 21:30 UTC	Down	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x59c741…
10-14 21:30:57	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 21:30 UTC	Down	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x473f9d…
10-14 20:47:51	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 20:45 UTC	Up	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x462344…
10-14 20:47:09	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 20:45 UTC	Up	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0xcfe56f…
10-14 20:46:16	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 20:45 UTC	Up	SELL	5	34¢	$2	0xfa68ec…
10-14 20:45:30	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 20:45 UTC	Up	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xd62db1…
10-14 20:43:34	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 20:40 UTC	Up	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xeaf7d0…
10-14 20:41:04	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 20:40 UTC	Up	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x2c120b…
10-14 20:37:09	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 20:35 UTC	Up	SELL	30	15¢	$4	0x7d0cb2…
10-14 20:36:36	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 20:35 UTC	Up	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x86d8ff…
10-14 20:35:31	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 20:35 UTC	Up	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x1bf2cf…
10-14 20:34:04	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 20:30 UTC	Up	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x820fae…
10-14 20:33:03	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 20:30 UTC	Up	SELL	7	29¢	$2	0x286949…
10-14 20:31:01	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 20:30 UTC	Up	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x13fde9…
10-14 20:26:22	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 20:25 UTC	Up	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0xba0b31…
10-14 20:21:09	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 20:20 UTC	Down	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x38f700…
10-14 20:20:54	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 20:20 UTC	Up	SELL	2	67¢	$1	0xa87061…
10-14 20:20:31	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 20:20 UTC	Up	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x9b6cf3…
10-14 20:15:51	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 20:15 UTC	Down	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0xfa741a…
10-14 20:14:31	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 20:10 UTC	Up	SELL	2	57¢	$1	0x42f3d5…
10-14 20:10:36	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 20:10 UTC	Up	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0xe445c2…
09-08 00:48:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Down	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x074440…
09-08 00:47:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Down	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x60cca0…
09-08 00:46:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Up	SELL	2	76¢	$1	0x4891f9…
09-08 00:46:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Down	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x80d316…
09-08 00:45:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Down	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x536675…
09-08 00:45:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Up	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x14abb6…
09-08 00:43:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Up	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0xcb1a7a…
09-08 00:43:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Up	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0xb09771…
09-08 00:41:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Up	BUY	3	78¢	$2	0x0ed16c…
09-08 00:41:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Up	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x518107…
09-08 00:40:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Up	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x9f6f39…
09-08 00:36:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Up	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0xf4c928…
09-08 00:35:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Up	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0xdbef13…
09-08 00:35:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Up	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x5e4d54…
09-08 00:25:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	Down	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0xa09c38…
09-08 00:22:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Down	SELL	2	91¢	$2	0xa519aa…
09-08 00:21:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Down	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x8f1202…
09-08 00:19:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Up	BUY	2	88¢	$2	0xd0ad42…
09-08 00:16:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Down	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0xf42dc0…
09-08 00:13:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Down	BUY	2	80¢	$2	0xc25df0…
09-08 00:13:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Up	SELL	4	15¢	$1	0xdbad2b…
09-08 00:13:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Down	BUY	2	86¢	$2	0xfb7efa…
09-08 00:12:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Up	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0xc41b4d…
09-08 00:08:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Down	SELL	2	65¢	$1	0x6e0d86…
09-08 00:07:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Down	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0xb5e964…
09-08 00:05:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Up	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0xff8307…
09-08 00:01:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Down	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0xb5d686…
09-07 23:57:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	91¢	$2	0xfc9ebd…
09-07 23:57:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Up	SELL	3	8¢	$0	0x5d574c…
09-07 23:57:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	91¢	$2	0xad64c5…
09-07 23:56:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0x560db5…
09-07 23:56:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0xc2f8bc…
09-07 23:36:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xdfdbca…
09-07 23:33:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Up	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x87d48c…
09-07 23:29:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Down	SELL	5	1¢	$0	0x4c4e09…
09-07 23:28:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Up	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x56a7bc…
09-07 23:27:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Up	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0xf303ab…
09-07 23:26:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x9a422f…
09-07 23:26:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Up	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0x192010…
09-07 23:08:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Down	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0xba9bc1…
09-07 23:07:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Down	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x4d2837…
09-07 22:42:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Up	SELL	5	3¢	$0	0x5f49b4…
09-07 22:42:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x122623…
09-07 22:41:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x6b0561…
09-07 22:40:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Down	BUY	3	78¢	$2	0xa09201…
09-07 22:40:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Down	BUY	2	80¢	$2	0x4f4e09…
09-07 22:40:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Down	BUY	3	77¢	$2	0x4b8d42…
09-07 22:38:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0xae2125…
09-07 22:36:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Up	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x5d4095…
09-07 22:36:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Up	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x7be9a2…
09-07 22:33:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Down	BUY	2	93¢	$2	0x0e279c…
09-07 22:33:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	5¢	$0	0x76c8af…
09-07 22:32:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Down	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xc18963…
09-07 22:32:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Down	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x28485b…
09-07 22:30:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0xd00b4e…
09-07 22:06:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Up	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x203df2…
09-07 22:05:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Down	SELL	3	77¢	$2	0x8798d7…
09-07 22:05:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Down	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x12c0c2…