Identical-Fail — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$981

Unrealized P&L

-$40

Hit rate

70.2%

Resolved

605

Trades

2,427

lifetime

Volume

$37.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$16

Open exposure

$10

1 position

First seen

2026-03-29

last 10-27 13:52

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 70 days

Categories

Crypto

100% 46% -$872

Politics

0% 0% -$50

Sports

0% 0% -$59

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

16 active days in 12wk • peak 159 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
israel x iran ceasefire continues through october 31	No		+294	$50	4¢	$10	-$40	10-16 08:37

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-24 22:50 UTC	8	$872	572	572	+0	Up	+$262	09-24 22:55
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-07 22:05 UTC	18	$773	906	773	+133	Up	+$133	06-07 22:08
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-25 23:10 UTC	17	$553	863	499	+364	Down	+$43	09-25 23:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	20	$542	625	560	+65	Up	+$146	10-02 00:20
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	9	$502	345	345	+0	Down	+$182	05-23 16:35
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-24 23:10 UTC	9	$492	385	375	+10	Down	+$258	09-24 23:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	15	$460	638	330	+308	Down	+$200	10-02 00:41
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-08 08:40 UTC	11	$452	345	345	+0	Up	+$92	06-08 08:46
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	7	$434	457	416	+41	Down	+$74	05-10 01:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	20	$395	482	243	+239	Up	+$85	10-02 20:10
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-25 23:05 UTC	13	$383	559	482	+76	Up	+$31	09-25 23:09
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-25 23:15 UTC	17	$383	747	166	+582	Up	-$241	09-25 23:19
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-08 08:55 UTC	10	$375	463	463	+0	Up	+$55	06-08 08:57
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-16 20:10 UTC	19	$374	394	327	+66	Down	+$78	07-16 20:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	9	$363	501	354	+147	Up	+$53	05-10 01:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	10	$357	446	416	+29	Down	+$83	05-10 01:14
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-24 22:55 UTC	7	$339	513	213	+300	Up	+$83	09-24 23:00
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-07 22:10 UTC	12	$320	530	157	+373	Up	-$120	06-07 22:11
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-15 21:45 UTC	12	$316	222	222	+0	Down	+$124	06-15 21:50
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	14	$316	243	243	+0	Down	+$165	06-02 23:00
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-08 09:05 UTC	9	$305	391	259	+131	Down	-$15	06-08 09:08
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-10 23:30 UTC	11	$300	235	227	+8	Up	+$150	07-10 23:35
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	7	$277	188	188	+0	Up	+$97	10-05 23:20
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	16	$266	283	283	+0	Down	+$86	05-20 20:00
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-04 09:40 UTC	15	$265	240	240	+0	Up	+$55	06-04 09:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	7	$264	275	275	+0	Down	+$74	05-10 01:20
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-15 21:15 UTC	5	$242	164	164	+0	Up	+$82	06-15 21:20
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-08 08:50 UTC	6	$237	245	245	+0	Down	+$37	06-08 08:50
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	10	$224	227	226	+0	Down	+$44	05-24 13:07
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-12 21:35 UTC	11	$221	300	220	+80	Up	+$13	06-12 21:37

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 13:52:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Up	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0xaeb321…
10-16 08:37:54	israel x iran ceasefire continues through october 31	No	BUY	294	17¢	$50	0x11b0ea…
10-16 08:37:36	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 21?	No	BUY	625	8¢	$50	0x9d4aa1…
10-07 20:30:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Up	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0xc5fa13…
10-07 20:26:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Down	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0xe487fb…
10-07 20:26:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Down	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0xfe10bf…
10-07 20:26:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Down	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x7b46ed…
10-07 20:26:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Down	BUY	33	75¢	$25	0x744331…
10-07 20:26:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Down	BUY	34	74¢	$25	0x48d121…
10-07 20:25:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Down	BUY	7	71¢	$5	0x6fe973…
10-07 20:25:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Down	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0x28bea1…
10-07 20:25:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Down	SELL	76	99¢	$75	0x862155…
10-07 20:24:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x27fab5…
10-07 20:20:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Down	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0x8972e4…
10-07 20:20:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Down	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0xc75678…
10-07 20:20:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Down	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0x979656…
10-07 20:20:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Down	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0x968982…
10-07 20:20:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Down	BUY	42	60¢	$25	0x371e8e…
10-07 20:19:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Up	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xf5be9f…
10-06 22:10:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Up	BUY	16	31¢	$5	0x3012bf…
10-06 22:10:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Up	BUY	16	31¢	$5	0x6d374b…
10-05 23:20:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Down	BUY	22	23¢	$5	0xb7a4be…
10-05 23:20:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Down	BUY	22	23¢	$5	0x728104…
10-05 23:20:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Up	SELL	188	99¢	$187	0xb5add9…
10-05 23:15:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Up	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0xf16219…
10-05 23:15:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Up	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0xbbc2ec…
10-05 23:15:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Up	BUY	46	54¢	$25	0x17c99a…
10-05 23:15:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Up	BUY	46	54¢	$25	0x3bfee5…
10-05 23:15:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Up	BUY	61	41¢	$25	0x1ddcc2…
10-05 23:15:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Up	BUY	12	41¢	$5	0xf6c1aa…
10-05 23:12:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Up	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0x2e797d…
10-05 23:12:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Up	BUY	42	12¢	$5	0xd35cc8…
10-05 23:05:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Up	BUY	7	73¢	$5	0xea0fcc…
10-05 23:05:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Up	BUY	7	72¢	$5	0x94d362…
10-05 23:05:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Up	BUY	7	72¢	$5	0x348963…
10-05 23:05:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Up	BUY	34	73¢	$25	0xfd3749…
10-05 23:03:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Down	BUY	111	1¢	$1	0x81f73f…
10-05 23:03:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Down	BUY	77	1¢	$1	0x4768bd…
10-03 12:34:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Up	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0xa95ec1…
10-03 12:33:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Up	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0xd016bd…
10-03 12:33:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Up	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x488aa7…
10-03 12:31:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Up	BUY	12	41¢	$5	0xd6af33…
10-03 12:31:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Up	BUY	69	36¢	$25	0x4c5e3c…
10-03 12:30:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Down	SELL	27	99¢	$27	0x08bcfa…
10-03 12:29:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Up	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x691d95…
10-03 12:29:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Up	BUY	7	76¢	$5	0x8195e8…
10-03 12:28:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Up	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x663954…
10-03 12:27:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Up	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x2707a3…
10-03 12:26:41	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-03 12:25 UTC	Down	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x3b205c…
10-03 12:26:36	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-03 12:25 UTC	Up	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0x9793dc…
10-03 12:26:32	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-03 12:25 UTC	Up	BUY	29	85¢	$25	0x331c4d…
10-03 12:25:18	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-03 12:25 UTC	Down	BUY	17	29¢	$5	0x3606e8…
10-03 12:21:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Down	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0xb3ce7b…
10-03 12:21:15	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-03 12:20 UTC	Down	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x80b7b7…
10-03 12:21:06	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-03 12:20 UTC	Up	BUY	28	90¢	$25	0x9ddb3e…
10-03 12:20:51	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-03 12:20 UTC	Down	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x125acb…
10-03 12:20:36	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-03 12:15 UTC	Up	SELL	41	100¢	$41	0x4c03e5…
10-03 12:20:17	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-03 12:20 UTC	Up	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0xc5ad90…
10-03 12:20:17	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-03 12:20 UTC	Up	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x55a97f…
10-03 12:20:12	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-03 12:20 UTC	Up	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0x2d2e69…
10-03 12:17:14	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-03 12:15 UTC	Down	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0xfc88a1…
10-03 12:17:02	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-03 12:15 UTC	Down	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x9d8537…
10-03 12:16:54	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-03 12:15 UTC	Down	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x55f203…
10-03 12:16:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Up	BUY	7	74¢	$5	0xbb1b97…
10-03 12:16:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Up	BUY	34	73¢	$25	0xaed646…
10-02 20:23:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Up	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x20c114…
10-02 20:23:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Up	BUY	36	69¢	$25	0x413b0e…
10-02 20:23:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x824efb…
10-02 20:20:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Up	SELL	74	99¢	$73	0xbfa737…
10-02 20:19:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x6bd524…
10-02 20:19:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x56c181…
10-02 20:19:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Down	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0x9c3779…
10-02 20:18:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Up	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x443fcf…
10-02 20:16:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Up	BUY	12	41¢	$5	0xf2b286…
10-02 20:16:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Up	BUY	57	44¢	$25	0x70d33e…
10-02 20:13:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Up	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x789e96…
10-02 20:12:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x476f59…
10-02 20:12:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x2de01f…
10-02 20:11:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Up	SELL	37	72¢	$27	0x808d81…
10-02 20:11:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Up	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0xc579a2…
10-02 20:11:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Up	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0x699c10…
10-02 20:11:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Up	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0x7871f8…
10-02 20:11:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Up	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0xa724c5…
10-02 20:10:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Up	SELL	243	99¢	$240	0x836f7c…
10-02 20:09:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xc8955f…
10-02 20:09:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x8e3d66…
10-02 20:09:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Down	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x90a132…
10-02 20:09:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Down	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x76e6ec…
10-02 20:09:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Down	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x6ee4df…
10-02 20:08:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Down	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0xea7ace…
10-02 20:08:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Down	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0xa21958…
10-02 20:08:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Up	BUY	45	55¢	$25	0x67b52c…
10-02 20:08:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Up	BUY	47	53¢	$25	0xba580b…
10-02 20:08:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Down	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x0876f4…
10-02 20:08:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Down	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xfb3299…
10-02 20:07:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Down	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x31eb4e…
10-02 20:07:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Up	BUY	40	62¢	$25	0x1e1d20…
10-02 20:07:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Up	BUY	38	65¢	$25	0x215ea9…
10-02 20:07:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Up	BUY	41	61¢	$25	0xecfe4c…
10-02 20:06:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Up	BUY	7	72¢	$5	0x7377d2…