Thankful-Sauerkraut — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$488

Unrealized P&L

-$11

Hit rate

69.9%

Resolved

3,115

Trades

4,010

lifetime

Volume

$27.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

2 positions

First seen

2026-05-19

last 10-07 14:36

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 79 days

Categories

Crypto

86% 62% -$372

Sports

9% 84% -$83

Other

4% 51% -$30

Tech

0% — —

Politics

0% 0% -$2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

23 active days in 12wk • peak 252 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026?	Yes		+60	$12	2¢	$1	-$11	09-29 17:40
Extended FDV above $3B one day after launch?	Yes		+1	$0	1¢	$0	$0	07-20 15:43

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs	2	$296	288	288	+0	Milwaukee Brewers	-$3	05-19 13:27
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	24	$115	313	0	+313	Down	-$115	06-14 05:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	1	$100	166	0	+166	Down	-$100	06-07 17:19
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-21 19:30 UTC	3	$54	62	0	+62	Down	-$49	06-21 19:44
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-05 08:15 UTC	2	$50	75	0	+75	Up	-$50	06-05 08:25
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-05 08:00 UTC	2	$50	83	0	+83	Down	+$33	06-05 08:01
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-05 15:30 UTC	18	$42	54	0	+54	Down	+$12	06-05 15:39
Will Meta be the #3 AI Lab at the end of November 2026 (Style Control On)?	3	$39	85	0	+85	open	—	09-25 19:44
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners	2	$39	86	86	+0	Seattle Mariners	-$1	06-02 04:10
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles	2	$38	64	64	+0	Toronto Blue Jays	-$2	05-30 01:19
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies	3	$36	27	22	+5	Colorado Rockies	-$11	05-30 03:40
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets	3	$35	28	22	+6	New York Mets	-$8	05-30 01:41
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles	3	$35	26	21	+5	Baltimore Orioles	-$15	05-30 22:48
Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers	3	$34	26	21	+5	Texas Rangers	-$15	05-30 22:57
nba nyk sas 2026 06 03	3	$33	28	22	+6	Knicks	-$9	06-04 03:02
mlb pit hou 2026 06 03	3	$31	25	15	+10	Houston Astros	-$18	06-04 03:35
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on September 30?	4	$31	60	0	+60	Yes	-$11	09-29 09:10
XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-27 00:00 UTC	2	$30	36	0	+36	Down	-$4	09-27 00:02
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on September 28?	6	$30	60	0	+60	No	-$10	09-27 21:39
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on September 30?	5	$30	60	0	+60	No	-$10	09-29 08:10
mlb oak chc 2026 06 03	2	$29	22	22	+0	Athletics	-$10	06-04 02:16
XRP Up or Down - October 4, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	2	$29	38	0	+38	Down	-$17	10-04 08:01
will conagra brands say collaboration during earnings call 20260703161814723	4	$29	24	20	+4	No	-$2	07-15 09:53
XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-19 21:15 UTC	10	$29	50	0	+50	Down	+$16	06-19 21:19
Will Google be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026?	1	$28	40	0	+40	open	—	09-25 20:23
Solana Up or Down - October 1, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET	2	$28	31	0	+31	Up	-$3	10-02 02:10
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	2	$27	36	0	+36	Down	+$4	10-04 03:28
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-07 10:45 UTC	6	$27	39	0	+39	Up	+$12	06-07 10:52
ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 11:35 UTC	2	$26	38	0	+38	Down	-$3	09-29 11:38
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers	3	$25	26	5	+21	Philadelphia Phillies	-$22	05-31 04:31

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-07 14:36:55	Ethereum Up or Down - October 7, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Up	BUY	7	58¢	$4	0x4bc679…
10-07 14:36:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Up	BUY	10	61¢	$6	0x2557ea…
10-07 14:31:56	Solana Up or Down - October 7, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Down	BUY	6	53¢	$3	0x587875…
10-07 14:26:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	7	59¢	$4	0x02820d…
10-07 14:21:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0xe0f13b…
10-07 13:56:55	Solana Up or Down - October 7, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Up	BUY	12	52¢	$6	0x018611…
10-07 13:45:55	XRP Up or Down - October 7, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Down	BUY	12	53¢	$6	0x1fccd9…
10-07 13:32:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	11	70¢	$8	0x844715…
10-07 13:26:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	Down	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0xc915a3…
10-07 13:20:56	Ethereum Up or Down - October 7, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Down	BUY	6	47¢	$3	0x844de3…
10-07 13:20:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Down	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0x66d1f4…
10-07 13:11:56	Solana Up or Down - October 7, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0x877279…
10-07 13:11:56	Ethereum Up or Down - October 7, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Up	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0x657fde…
10-07 13:10:55	XRP Up or Down - October 7, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Down	BUY	8	79¢	$6	0x0d76a4…
10-07 13:05:55	Ethereum Up or Down - October 7, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Down	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0xa21eec…
10-07 13:05:55	XRP Up or Down - October 7, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Down	BUY	11	59¢	$6	0x245d71…
10-07 13:05:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Down	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0x0bb42b…
10-07 13:04:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Down	BUY	14	79¢	$11	0x841284…
10-07 13:01:55	XRP Up or Down - October 7, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Up	BUY	21	67¢	$14	0xaede4b…
10-07 12:47:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Down	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0x1f3541…
10-07 12:46:55	Solana Up or Down - October 7, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Down	BUY	12	75¢	$9	0x3088f7…
10-07 12:36:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Up	BUY	24	96¢	$23	0xaf2b83…
10-07 12:25:55	Solana Up or Down - October 7, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	26	96¢	$25	0x1ee1d4…
10-07 12:22:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Up	BUY	14	58¢	$8	0x81d249…
10-07 12:10:56	XRP Up or Down - October 7, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Down	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x25e7dd…
10-07 12:10:55	Ethereum Up or Down - October 7, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET	Down	BUY	8	55¢	$4	0xe62577…
10-07 12:10:55	Solana Up or Down - October 7, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Down	BUY	13	53¢	$7	0x7aba63…
10-07 11:51:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Down	BUY	14	55¢	$7	0xdfacbd…
10-07 11:41:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Down	BUY	8	51¢	$4	0x841dff…
10-07 11:40:55	Ethereum Up or Down - October 7, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Down	BUY	6	51¢	$3	0xecea90…
10-07 11:40:55	Solana Up or Down - October 7, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0x867906…
10-07 11:30:55	Solana Up or Down - October 7, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	Down	BUY	17	80¢	$14	0x804e05…
10-07 11:21:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Down	BUY	14	66¢	$9	0xa5ce87…
10-07 11:15:56	Ethereum Up or Down - October 7, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Down	BUY	6	60¢	$4	0x7b5427…
10-07 11:06:56	Solana Up or Down - October 7, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET	Down	BUY	7	62¢	$4	0x30219a…
10-07 11:06:54	Solana Up or Down - October 7, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Down	BUY	7	55¢	$4	0xb50599…
10-07 10:27:54	XRP Up or Down - October 7, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Up	BUY	6	51¢	$3	0x0f68ec…
10-07 10:17:56	Ethereum Up or Down - October 7, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Up	BUY	6	52¢	$3	0xb0d933…
10-07 10:13:56	Solana Up or Down - October 7, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Down	BUY	17	39¢	$7	0xf19ca6…
10-07 10:10:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET	Up	BUY	19	78¢	$14	0xb83d56…
10-07 10:07:56	Solana Up or Down - October 7, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Down	BUY	26	96¢	$25	0x76a51c…
10-07 10:07:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Down	BUY	29	86¢	$25	0x34ea0f…
10-07 10:01:54	Solana Up or Down - October 7, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Up	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0xcd5482…
10-07 09:51:54	Ethereum Up or Down - October 7, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x5e630b…
10-07 09:47:54	Solana Up or Down - October 7, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0xd8398e…
10-07 09:46:56	Solana Up or Down - October 7, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Up	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0x64ee85…
10-07 09:36:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	9	81¢	$7	0x169501…
10-07 09:35:56	XRP Up or Down - October 7, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0x6448b0…
10-07 09:32:57	Ethereum Up or Down - October 7, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	18	80¢	$14	0xf8b733…
10-07 09:32:56	XRP Up or Down - October 7, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	20	87¢	$17	0x7d6404…
10-07 09:32:54	Solana Up or Down - October 7, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	11	70¢	$8	0xa5475d…
10-07 09:28:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Up	BUY	36	51¢	$18	0xf8ba9b…
10-07 09:26:54	Solana Up or Down - October 7, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Up	BUY	6	51¢	$3	0xa02b77…
10-07 09:20:56	Solana Up or Down - October 7, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Up	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0x5b68e5…
10-07 09:17:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET	Down	BUY	13	61¢	$8	0xa65c48…
10-07 09:17:56	Ethereum Up or Down - October 7, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0x482240…
10-07 09:13:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET	Up	BUY	7	47¢	$3	0x678b64…
10-07 09:12:56	Ethereum Up or Down - October 7, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET	Down	BUY	7	56¢	$4	0x0e58ba…
10-07 09:12:54	XRP Up or Down - October 7, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Down	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0x38ef41…
10-07 09:01:54	XRP Up or Down - October 7, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Down	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0xd7833d…
10-07 08:50:56	Solana Up or Down - October 7, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0xe6b395…
10-07 08:46:54	Solana Up or Down - October 7, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Down	BUY	14	61¢	$9	0x04d019…
10-07 08:45:56	XRP Up or Down - October 7, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Down	BUY	8	44¢	$3	0xf7471f…
10-07 08:45:54	Ethereum Up or Down - October 7, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Down	BUY	6	51¢	$3	0x9bd921…
10-07 08:45:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Down	BUY	6	55¢	$4	0x5bb750…
10-07 08:21:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0xeebf0e…
10-07 08:15:54	XRP Up or Down - October 7, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Up	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0x5ed109…
10-07 08:10:56	Solana Up or Down - October 7, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Down	BUY	12	64¢	$8	0xb961ef…
10-07 08:10:56	Ethereum Up or Down - October 7, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Down	BUY	8	57¢	$5	0x3c541e…
10-07 08:02:56	Ethereum Up or Down - October 7, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Down	BUY	20	65¢	$13	0x207445…
10-07 08:02:54	Solana Up or Down - October 7, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET	Down	BUY	10	58¢	$6	0xe4e01e…
10-07 08:01:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Down	BUY	26	91¢	$24	0x2e8b91…
10-07 07:55:56	Ethereum Up or Down - October 7, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	6	58¢	$3	0xc79093…
10-07 07:55:54	XRP Up or Down - October 7, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0x9dd160…
10-07 07:50:56	XRP Up or Down - October 7, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Down	BUY	7	58¢	$4	0xc2fa0d…
10-07 07:50:56	Solana Up or Down - October 7, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0x080cf8…
10-07 07:50:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Down	BUY	11	66¢	$7	0x446b9f…
10-07 07:35:56	Ethereum Up or Down - October 7, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Up	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0x33d4ac…
10-07 07:26:56	Ethereum Up or Down - October 7, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Down	BUY	9	63¢	$6	0x6eed2d…
10-07 07:17:56	XRP Up or Down - October 7, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Down	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0x3681ba…
10-07 07:04:24	Ethereum Up or Down - October 7, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Up	BUY	15	56¢	$9	0x4aff4e…
10-07 07:01:56	Ethereum Up or Down - October 7, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Down	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x4acfee…
10-07 07:00:54	Solana Up or Down - October 7, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Up	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0xfe4209…
10-07 06:55:54	Solana Up or Down - October 7, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Down	BUY	7	59¢	$4	0xd317eb…
10-07 06:40:56	Solana Up or Down - October 7, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET	Up	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0xd8a5b6…
10-07 06:36:54	XRP Up or Down - October 7, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Up	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0xbb259c…
10-07 06:30:56	XRP Up or Down - October 7, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Down	BUY	10	68¢	$7	0x1b8cda…
10-07 06:11:54	Ethereum Up or Down - October 7, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0xa28d63…
10-07 06:06:56	Solana Up or Down - October 7, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET	Down	BUY	22	99¢	$22	0xb4ad99…
10-07 06:02:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	Down	BUY	8	58¢	$5	0x3d96b7…
10-07 06:02:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0x68f99b…
10-07 06:01:54	Solana Up or Down - October 7, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	Down	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0x73762f…
10-07 05:52:56	XRP Up or Down - October 7, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	Up	BUY	9	61¢	$6	0xd38191…
10-07 05:52:54	Solana Up or Down - October 7, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	Up	BUY	8	55¢	$4	0xf8b6e6…
10-07 05:51:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	Up	BUY	21	88¢	$18	0xdda923…
10-07 05:36:56	Solana Up or Down - October 7, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0xb15c0e…
10-07 05:36:56	XRP Up or Down - October 7, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET	Down	BUY	7	54¢	$4	0x58f1ba…
10-07 05:20:56	XRP Up or Down - October 7, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	Up	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0x7015c8…
10-07 05:17:56	Ethereum Up or Down - October 7, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	Down	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0x23b9cc…
10-07 05:10:56	Solana Up or Down - October 7, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	Up	BUY	6	59¢	$3	0xe06a2a…