Wrong-Business — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$4

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

66.5%

Resolved

176

Trades

421

lifetime

Volume

$2.67K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-18

last 07-24 01:20

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 43 days

Categories

Politics

53% 41% +$98

Crypto

39% 46% -$66

Other

7% 0% -$36

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-07-24).

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	14	$175	141	141	+0	Yes	+$15	03-07 15:29
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	6	$130	106	106	+0	Yes	+$71	02-28 08:09
will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 5 748 625	5	$101	60	60	+0	No	+$14	03-05 22:08
will iran announce a new supreme leader on march 4 2026	4	$100	65	65	+0	No	+$24	03-04 19:38
will a gulf state strike iran by march 7	6	$80	61	61	+0	No	+$10	03-05 23:55
iran closes its airspace by june 15	6	$80	104	104	+0	Yes	+$55	06-07 23:00
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	4	$73	51	51	+0	No	-$1	03-01 09:58
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	5	$59	56	56	+0	Yes	-$1	03-08 21:30
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	7	$57	155	155	+0	Yes	-$56	03-08 21:18
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	3	$56	36	36	+0	No	+$6	03-18 06:06
israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	9	$51	71	71	+0	No	-$8	06-10 13:31
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-18 05:45 UTC	3	$49	65	6	+58	Down	-$46	03-18 05:49
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-18 04:25 UTC	3	$48	40	12	+28	Down	+$1	03-18 04:29
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-18 05:35 UTC	3	$44	47	3	+44	Up	+$1	03-18 05:39
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7?	5	$43	328	38	+289	No	+$15	05-26 01:13
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-18 05:20 UTC	1	$41	44	0	+44	Down	+$2	03-18 05:24
trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 15th	2	$40	26	26	+0	No	-$1	03-03 09:22
will qatar strike iran by march 31	4	$40	29	29	+0	No	+$0	03-05 18:16
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-18 05:40 UTC	1	$40	43	0	+43	Down	+$3	03-18 05:44
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-18 05:15 UTC	3	$40	45	4	+41	Down	+$3	03-18 05:19
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-18 05:05 UTC	1	$37	38	0	+38	Up	+$1	03-18 05:09
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	4	$36	137	137	+0	No	-$4	06-08 11:24
will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	2	$36	39	39	+0	No	-$4	03-10 23:42
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	3	$36	30	30	+0	Yes	+$24	06-07 23:00
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	4	$35	63	63	+0	Yes	+$13	05-25 22:33
will uae strike iran by march 31	4	$31	21	21	+0	No	+$1	03-05 17:53
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-18 05:00 UTC	1	$30	38	0	+38	Up	+$8	03-18 05:03
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-18 01:35 UTC	2	$30	27	27	+0	Down	+$24	03-18 01:40
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-18 04:45 UTC	1	$28	30	0	+30	Down	+$2	03-18 04:49
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?	5	$27	165	165	+0	No	+$17	05-26 00:17

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-24 01:20:13	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	Yes	BUY	22	9¢	$2	0xb49605…
07-24 01:19:13	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150 838	Yes	SELL	5	39¢	$2	0xe4bc5d…
07-23 12:11:36	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?	Yes	BUY	77	8¢	$6	0x91189e…
07-23 12:10:55	Iran full airspace closure by July 31?	Yes	SELL	15	41¢	$6	0x94e33d…
07-16 21:57:20	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	Yes	BUY	28	33¢	$9	0x7e960a…
07-16 21:56:31	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	Yes	SELL	84	11¢	$9	0xe8a827…
07-08 08:53:31	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	Yes	BUY	12	22¢	$3	0x56e311…
07-08 08:53:07	israel closes its airspace by july 15 182	Yes	SELL	64	4¢	$3	0x7adf2d…
07-08 08:52:49	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	Yes	BUY	27	11¢	$3	0x843ce3…
07-03 12:11:53	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	Yes	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0xeea6b0…
07-02 10:46:19	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	Yes	BUY	57	7¢	$4	0x2b4001…
07-02 10:45:47	israel closes its airspace by july 15 182	Yes	BUY	31	3¢	$1	0xc0b6c4…
06-17 22:11:50	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 30 20260607232556276 219	Yes	BUY	54	5¢	$3	0x314653…
06-17 14:18:20	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	22	5¢	$1	0xacc9c3…
06-17 14:16:25	israel closes its airspace by july 15	Yes	BUY	27	10¢	$3	0x77cb6b…
06-17 14:14:37	israel closes its airspace by july 15	Yes	BUY	6	8¢	$0	0xe9f257…
06-17 14:02:40	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	42	5¢	$2	0x81ae04…
06-17 13:59:14	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	2,500	0¢	$5	0xb3fd2e…
06-14 20:59:22	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	16	13¢	$2	0x1bc990…
06-14 20:55:37	will iran close its airspace by june 14 20260609184136052	Yes	SELL	17	12¢	$2	0xcd4534…
06-11 15:25:22	will iran close its airspace by june 14 20260609184136052	Yes	BUY	7	43¢	$3	0xe826ec…
06-11 05:47:19	israel closes its airspace by june 12	Yes	BUY	19	11¢	$2	0x7ef5c3…
06-11 04:25:13	will iran close its airspace by june 10 20260609184136048	Yes	SELL	25	0¢	$0	0x1a7099…
06-10 13:32:21	will iran close its airspace by june 14 20260609184136052	Yes	BUY	10	30¢	$3	0x220073…
06-10 13:31:58	will iran close its airspace by june 10 20260609184136048	Yes	BUY	25	12¢	$3	0x83d133…
06-10 13:31:30	israel closes its airspace by june 14	Yes	SELL	22	16¢	$4	0xa7e433…
06-10 13:31:15	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	SELL	42	18¢	$8	0x4944f6…
06-10 11:25:27	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	BUY	12	17¢	$2	0xb44c39…
06-10 11:24:37	israel closes its airspace by june 12	Yes	BUY	31	8¢	$2	0x320e78…
06-09 12:58:34	israel closes its airspace by june 9	Yes	BUY	125	1¢	$1	0x86162b…
06-09 12:58:00	israel closes its airspace by june 14	Yes	BUY	22	9¢	$2	0x0267ed…
06-08 14:37:51	israel closes its airspace by june 8	Yes	SELL	102	2¢	$2	0x2f488e…
06-08 12:02:21	israel closes its airspace by june 9	Yes	BUY	18	11¢	$2	0xe00654…
06-08 11:29:52	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	BUY	20	20¢	$4	0x0f0ebf…
06-08 11:29:04	israel closes its airspace by june 8	Yes	BUY	28	4¢	$1	0x221507…
06-08 11:25:33	israel closes its airspace by june 9	Yes	BUY	23	9¢	$2	0x6d2c7a…
06-08 11:25:10	israel closes its airspace by june 8	Yes	BUY	41	6¢	$2	0x0aec30…
06-08 11:24:46	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	Yes	SELL	39	17¢	$6	0x289225…
06-08 05:01:03	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	Yes	SELL	98	10¢	$10	0x22ade9…
06-08 04:58:48	israel closes its airspace by june 8	Yes	BUY	33	30¢	$10	0x6f51a9…
06-08 04:02:27	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x058b41…
06-08 04:00:03	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0xc47c06…
06-08 03:01:40	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	Yes	BUY	68	15¢	$10	0x3ce74e…
06-08 03:01:25	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	Yes	BUY	68	15¢	$10	0xc92917…
06-08 01:27:39	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	7	74¢	$5	0x48bdf2…
06-08 01:26:42	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	15	71¢	$11	0x8f3293…
06-08 01:26:07	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	SELL	20	58¢	$12	0xc639d0…
06-08 01:25:04	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x5fa4be…
06-08 01:24:33	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	BUY	15	65¢	$10	0x61c95d…
06-07 23:00:58	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	SELL	9	24¢	$2	0x9751e7…
06-07 23:00:31	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	30	100¢	$30	0x7ec084…
06-07 23:00:12	iran closes its airspace by june 15	Yes	SELL	39	99¢	$39	0x2b82cf…
06-07 19:45:39	iran closes its airspace by june 15	Yes	SELL	39	67¢	$26	0x3be345…
06-07 19:45:07	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0x50d003…
06-04 19:24:15	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	13	19¢	$2	0xd52c31…
06-04 19:24:03	iran closes its airspace by june 15	Yes	BUY	28	9¢	$2	0xf983f8…
06-04 02:42:43	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	17	20¢	$3	0xe813fa…
06-04 01:03:33	iran closes its airspace by june 15	Yes	SELL	27	12¢	$3	0x14182b…
06-01 22:26:24	Iran closes its airspace by June 15?	Yes	BUY	40	13¢	$5	0x1fb886…
06-01 04:04:45	Iran closes its airspace by June 15?	Yes	BUY	37	14¢	$5	0x27c73a…
06-01 02:14:33	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	225	0¢	$0	0x95a0a2…
05-29 16:48:27	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	24	7¢	$2	0xb9797a…
05-29 16:44:05	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	13	8¢	$1	0x124dae…
05-29 16:43:14	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	106	5¢	$5	0x63bbaf…
05-29 16:16:57	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	93	5¢	$5	0x363a90…
05-29 15:40:21	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	96	5¢	$5	0x7a93b5…
05-29 15:30:58	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	106	5¢	$5	0x2e74d8…
05-29 07:58:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xe78edc…
05-29 07:43:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x853963…
05-29 05:13:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	Down	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0xe0fd5b…
05-29 05:10:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	Down	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x5b1a5f…
05-29 05:10:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	Down	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0xb0f267…
05-29 05:08:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Down	BUY	9	10¢	$1	0x5f9107…
05-29 05:08:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Down	BUY	1	10¢	$0	0x39d275…
05-29 05:03:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Down	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0xee61ac…
05-29 05:02:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Down	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x52ba1b…
05-29 04:59:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Down	SELL	50	1¢	$0	0x346d5d…
05-29 04:59:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xbfc4d6…
05-29 04:49:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	Down	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0xf3c953…
05-29 01:38:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Up	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0xeb020d…
05-29 01:38:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Up	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xd91518…
05-29 01:36:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Up	BUY	0	10¢	$0	0x0d1c8d…
05-29 01:36:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Up	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x3de84d…
05-29 01:34:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	Up	SELL	8	4¢	$0	0x27d882…
05-29 01:33:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	Up	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x381d21…
05-29 00:28:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	Up	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xadcb26…
05-29 00:24:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Down	SELL	33	12¢	$4	0x864864…
05-29 00:23:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Down	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0xcf17d7…
05-29 00:20:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Down	SELL	10	34¢	$3	0xd0560c…
05-29 00:20:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Down	BUY	10	46¢	$5	0xadf5b3…
05-29 00:18:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Down	SELL	5	26¢	$1	0xf8844c…
05-29 00:18:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Down	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x1fc935…
05-28 17:32:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Down	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x64816f…
05-28 03:58:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	Up	SELL	10	73¢	$7	0xe8e5a4…
05-28 03:57:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	Up	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xcdd949…
05-27 17:07:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Up	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x444f59…
05-27 15:37:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Down	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x31be6b…
05-27 15:30:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Down	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0xe9355e…
05-27 15:23:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Down	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0xcba077…
05-27 03:07:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Down	BUY	3	10¢	$0	0xbbb917…