Close-Deviance — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$38

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

57.5%

Resolved

1,052

Trades

2,484

lifetime

Volume

$4.28K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-23

last 09-29 11:16

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 74 days

Categories

Crypto

97% 50% -$43

Other

3% 31% +$6

Politics

0% 0% -$2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

6 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-10 04:30 UTC	20	$50	137	24	+113	Down	-$9	02-10 04:45
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-10 04:15 UTC	6	$49	56	34	+21	Up	+$20	02-10 04:30
SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-04 19:00 UTC	3	$44	23	23	+0	Up	+$0	02-04 19:04
XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-06 07:00 UTC	4	$41	49	20	+29	Down	-$2	02-06 07:16
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-09 14:30 UTC	8	$41	40	19	+21	Up	-$3	02-09 14:46
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-09 13:30 UTC	5	$40	37	20	+17	Down	$0	02-09 13:46
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-09 14:45 UTC	17	$34	39	16	+22	Up	-$2	02-09 15:00
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-09 15:00 UTC	15	$32	45	18	+27	Up	-$2	02-09 15:15
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-09 20:00 UTC	13	$30	35	14	+20	Up	-$1	02-09 20:15
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-09 19:30 UTC	10	$28	31	13	+18	Up	-$1	02-09 19:45
elon musk of tweets january 27 february 3 340 359	3	$25	24	24	+0	Yes	+$23	02-03 17:19
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-09 19:45 UTC	10	$23	22	16	+6	Up	+$3	02-09 20:00
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-09 09:00 UTC	5	$22	20	13	+6	Down	+$5	02-09 09:15
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-10 06:30 UTC	14	$22	49	9	+40	Down	-$4	02-10 06:46
SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-09 10:00 UTC	7	$21	20	12	+7	Down	+$3	02-09 10:16
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-11 11:45 UTC	7	$21	32	10	+22	Up	-$1	02-11 12:00
SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-02 02:45 UTC	3	$20	19	14	+5	Down	+$9	03-02 02:49
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-10 20:15 UTC	10	$20	18	11	+7	Up	+$2	02-10 20:30
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-06 19:15 UTC	4	$20	13	12	+0	Up	+$5	03-06 19:20
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-07 05:15 UTC	3	$20	32	25	+7	Down	+$16	02-07 05:27
SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-02 05:20 UTC	8	$20	16	12	+4	Down	+$4	03-02 05:25
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-11 15:45 UTC	6	$20	48	9	+39	Down	-$2	02-11 16:00
SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-05 09:15 UTC	2	$19	10	10	+0	Down	$0	03-05 09:19
ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-06 19:30 UTC	2	$19	9	9	+0	Up	+$0	03-06 19:35
SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-11 19:30 UTC	8	$18	14	14	+0	Up	+$0	02-11 19:40
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-09 10:00 UTC	7	$18	114	14	+100	Down	+$2	02-09 10:16
SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-11 16:15 UTC	7	$18	15	15	+0	Down	+$3	02-11 16:26
SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-02 05:10 UTC	5	$18	19	8	+11	Up	-$1	03-02 05:15
XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-06 02:15 UTC	3	$17	9	9	+0	Down	+$0	03-06 02:20
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-11 12:00 UTC	11	$17	27	8	+19	Up	-$4	02-11 12:10

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-29 11:16:45	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 11:15 UTC	Down	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x059948…
09-29 11:15:42	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 11:15 UTC	Up	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0xfa6ae4…
09-02 08:13:21	Solana Up or Down - September 2, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET	Down	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x9dabed…
08-27 16:55:36	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-27 16:45 UTC	Down	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x2e3f35…
08-25 09:42:25	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-25 09:40 UTC	Up	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0xf3ed1b…
08-25 09:40:58	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-25 09:40 UTC	Up	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x7c16a9…
08-25 09:40:37	DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-25 09:40 UTC	Up	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x5b985a…
08-23 14:59:33	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	7	8¢	$1	0x16102d…
08-20 15:38:37	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x9b2e3c…
08-20 15:38:25	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x29b633…
08-16 09:01:12	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-16 08:55 UTC	Up	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x62e310…
08-16 09:00:57	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-16 08:55 UTC	Up	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x93cc0c…
08-16 08:56:34	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-16 08:55 UTC	Up	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x7116a1…
08-16 08:55:42	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-16 08:55 UTC	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x6dc032…
08-16 08:52:24	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 15 to August 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x32c6a3…
07-19 11:24:13	Will the Reserve Bank of India make no change to the policy repo rate after the August Meeting?	Yes	BUY	4	72¢	$3	0x20c2f0…
07-06 16:54:01	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 16:50 UTC	Up	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x8edc28…
06-27 16:01:05	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0xbb82db…
06-01 11:38:21	Dogecoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET	Up	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x1b3aae…
06-01 11:37:41	Solana Up or Down - June 1, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET	Up	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x0d9095…
05-30 10:25:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET	Up	SELL	2	64¢	$2	0x3d8e17…
05-30 10:23:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET	Up	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x186c5a…
05-30 10:22:31	Will XRP dip to $1.20 in May?	Yes	SELL	4	1¢	$0	0x4a8cc6…
05-28 14:51:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0xef0253…
05-28 14:51:25	XRP Up or Down - May 28, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Up	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0xf6c134…
05-28 07:58:17	Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x99829b…
05-28 07:57:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Down	SELL	2	10¢	$0	0xc53276…
05-28 07:56:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0xe827c1…
05-28 07:56:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x39fc42…
05-28 07:52:48	Will XRP dip to $1.20 in May?	Yes	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x04c056…
05-28 07:52:35	Will XRP reach $1.60 in May?	Yes	BUY	167	1¢	$1	0xa7f49a…
05-28 07:49:14	Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Down	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0x471bf0…
05-28 07:48:51	Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Down	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0x30f5b0…
05-28 06:57:12	Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31?	No	SELL	3	92¢	$2	0x9a76e8…
05-28 06:57:05	Will gas hit (High) $4.60 by May 31?	No	SELL	3	90¢	$3	0xceb576…
05-20 10:28:45	Will gas hit (High) $4.60 by May 31?	No	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x3f76f4…
05-20 10:25:50	XRP Up or Down - May 20, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Up	SELL	2	66¢	$1	0x607cf8…
05-20 10:24:49	XRP Up or Down - May 20, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x3fd7dc…
05-20 10:18:52	Solana Up or Down - May 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Up	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0xa1784f…
05-20 10:18:01	Solana Up or Down - May 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Down	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0xc4386a…
05-20 10:14:47	Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Up	SELL	2	94¢	$2	0x54c5df…
05-20 10:13:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Down	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x1950ca…
05-20 10:13:03	Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Up	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x2a806a…
05-20 10:12:21	Solana Up or Down - May 20, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Up	SELL	5	27¢	$1	0x05c989…
05-20 10:11:36	Solana Up or Down - May 20, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0xd2e062…
05-20 10:09:40	Solana Up or Down - May 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Down	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x9d6928…
05-20 10:09:25	Solana Up or Down - May 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Up	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x2f45c0…
05-20 10:08:53	Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31?	Yes	SELL	3	23¢	$1	0x6af396…
05-20 10:08:23	Solana Up or Down - May 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Up	SELL	2	85¢	$2	0x95a3b8…
05-20 10:08:06	Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31?	Yes	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0xa1fc08…
05-20 10:07:47	Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31?	No	BUY	3	77¢	$2	0x59e42d…
05-20 10:02:49	Solana Up or Down - May 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xb0fc1c…
05-18 03:19:35	Solana Up or Down - May 17, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Up	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x5136f6…
05-18 03:19:02	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Up	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x5358ce…
05-18 03:17:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Down	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0xedd9ee…
05-18 03:17:29	XRP Up or Down - May 17, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Up	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0xea7d06…
05-17 16:31:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET	Up	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x244af1…
05-17 16:29:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Up	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xa711c5…
05-17 16:29:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Down	SELL	6	17¢	$1	0xaae4c3…
05-17 16:29:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Down	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0xd34143…
05-17 16:29:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Up	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0x24c37d…
05-17 16:24:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Down	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0xd26146…
05-17 16:21:46	Solana Up or Down - May 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Up	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0xabdbb0…
05-17 16:19:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Down	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x6bc0a7…
05-17 16:19:03	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Up	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x40cf88…
05-17 16:18:44	XRP Up or Down - May 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Up	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x736757…
04-15 11:29:16	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-15 11:25 UTC	Up	BUY	3	48¢	$1	0x8de48d…
04-15 11:28:18	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-15 11:25 UTC	Up	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0xcbc623…
04-15 11:27:30	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-15 11:15 UTC	Up	SELL	3	60¢	$2	0x63a782…
04-15 11:23:44	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-15 11:20 UTC	Up	BUY	19	5¢	$1	0xd90cff…
04-15 11:21:44	DOGE Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-15 11:15 UTC	Down	SELL	3	59¢	$2	0x07c41f…
04-15 11:18:06	DOGE Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-15 11:15 UTC	Down	BUY	3	60¢	$2	0x5309d3…
04-15 11:17:14	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-15 11:15 UTC	Up	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x8b5e21…
04-15 10:31:24	DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-15 10:30 UTC	Up	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x47f996…
04-15 10:31:02	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-15 10:30 UTC	Up	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0xd72dee…
04-15 10:28:22	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-15 10:25 UTC	Down	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0xa7a19a…
04-15 10:28:04	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-15 10:25 UTC	Down	SELL	6	41¢	$3	0x0f586f…
04-15 10:26:56	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-15 10:25 UTC	Down	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x195b92…
04-15 10:24:42	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-15 10:20 UTC	Up	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x8405a7…
04-15 10:24:14	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-15 10:20 UTC	Down	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x983e48…
04-15 10:15:12	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-15 10:10 UTC	Down	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0x163259…
04-15 10:12:54	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-15 10:10 UTC	Up	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x1c9d3f…
04-15 10:12:28	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-15 10:10 UTC	Down	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xf726fe…
04-15 10:12:12	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-15 10:10 UTC	Up	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0xa082b8…
04-15 09:58:12	elon musk of tweets april 13 april 15 90 114	Yes	SELL	7	2¢	$0	0x91d250…
04-12 10:47:49	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-12 10:45 UTC	Up	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x21a0e3…
04-12 10:46:05	elon musk of tweets april 13 april 15 90 114	Yes	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0xe8b1e0…
04-12 10:28:35	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-12 10:25 UTC	Down	BUY	4	31¢	$1	0x2110c2…
04-12 10:27:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-12 10:25 UTC	Up	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0xa7defb…
04-12 10:23:11	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-12 10:15 UTC	Up	SELL	2	81¢	$1	0xe8c402…
04-12 10:22:35	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-12 10:20 UTC	Up	SELL	2	69¢	$1	0x276791…
04-12 10:21:21	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-12 10:20 UTC	Up	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x42e419…
04-12 10:20:29	DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-12 10:15 UTC	Up	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x9f1938…
04-12 10:18:43	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-12 10:15 UTC	Up	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x86bd12…
04-12 10:16:51	DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-12 10:15 UTC	Up	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x085f02…
04-12 10:09:25	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-12 10:05 UTC	Up	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x2ad21e…
04-12 10:08:55	DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-12 10:05 UTC	Up	SELL	2	88¢	$2	0xd46f73…
04-12 10:08:17	DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-12 10:05 UTC	Up	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0xaf5e07…
04-12 10:07:25	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-12 10:05 UTC	Up	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x71dc0c…
04-10 08:18:57	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-10 08:15 UTC	Up	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0xaa1b48…