Instructive-Enclosure — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$520

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

70.2%

Resolved

723

Trades

1,640

lifetime

Volume

$12.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-03-26

last 09-27 06:20

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 106 days

Categories

Other

87% 53% -$165

Politics

8% 35% -$123

Crypto

4% 31% -$175

Sports

1% 23% -$44

Tech

0% 0% -$13

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

6 active days in 12wk • peak 8 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes		-26	-$6	18¢	$-5	+$1	04-29 12:20

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
elon musk of tweets april 14 april 21 260 279	6	$193	126	125	+2	No	+$10	04-21 09:03
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	17	$165	84,317	0	+84,317	No	-$165	04-30 17:13
xauusd up or down on september 25 2026	7	$160	150	150	+0	Up	+$22	09-25 14:16
elon musk of tweets april 14 april 21 200 219	4	$137	163	158	+5	No	+$6	04-20 09:46
xauusd up or down on september 24 2026	5	$130	71	71	+0	Down	+$11	09-24 20:31
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	8	$118	129	129	+0	Yes	+$22	06-19 18:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 24, 5AM ET	3	$117	60	60	+0	Down	+$2	09-24 09:49
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April?	3	$106	70	70	+0	No	+$1	04-21 16:29
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026?	8	$106	105	105	+0	Yes	+$26	06-06 08:30
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?	4	$101	138	134	+4	Yes	+$1	05-01 07:30
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	2	$92	50	50	+0	No	+$5	05-19 07:47
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 21?	3	$91	52	52	+0	No	+$11	06-21 08:09
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	5	$90	66	66	+0	Yes	+$10	04-13 03:45
bitcoin up or down on september 26 2026	4	$88	230	0	+230	Up	-$88	09-26 09:53
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 6?	6	$87	132	132	+0	No	-$17	06-06 14:26
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15?	4	$82	61	61	+0	Yes	+$22	06-15 09:11
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026?	7	$79	118	103	+14	No	-$2	06-15 15:25
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	2	$78	71	68	+3	Yes	+$61	04-28 15:19
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	10	$77	192	192	+0	No	-$3	06-19 04:43
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	8	$77	113	112	+0	No	+$10	06-12 14:50
Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from April 24 to May 1, 2026?	10	$73	1,184	1,160	+25	No	+$8	04-30 08:24
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 6?	5	$69	53	39	+14	Yes	-$11	06-06 14:31
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026?	7	$69	151	140	+10	Yes	-$15	06-13 10:27
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026?	4	$68	62	61	+1	Yes	+$11	04-27 15:16
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026?	7	$68	61	61	+0	Yes	+$8	06-20 10:40
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on May 10?	2	$65	35	35	+0	No	+$5	05-10 09:27
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 10?	3	$64	37	32	+5	No	+$0	05-10 11:12
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C or below on June 4?	7	$64	39	39	+0	No	+$7	06-04 14:38
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	6	$62	100	100	+0	No	+$19	06-23 08:24
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 6?	5	$61	119	119	+0	Yes	-$39	06-06 14:04

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-27 06:20:26	bitcoin up or down on september 27 2026	Down	BUY	7	18¢	$1	0xaaebbc…
09-26 09:53:05	bitcoin up or down on september 26 2026	Down	BUY	90	35¢	$31	0x7182da…
09-26 09:52:23	bitcoin up or down on september 26 2026	Down	BUY	30	34¢	$10	0x12c49b…
09-26 09:51:12	bitcoin up or down on september 26 2026	Down	BUY	10	33¢	$3	0xd3aa04…
09-26 05:04:41	bitcoin up or down on september 26 2026	Down	BUY	100	43¢	$43	0xce74c7…
09-25 14:16:09	xauusd up or down on september 25 2026	Down	SELL	93	61¢	$57	0xb52da9…
09-25 14:16:09	xauusd up or down on september 25 2026	Down	SELL	10	61¢	$6	0xa1148e…
09-25 14:16:08	xauusd up or down on september 25 2026	Down	SELL	10	61¢	$6	0xc6ad6f…
09-25 14:15:54	xauusd up or down on september 25 2026	Down	SELL	10	61¢	$6	0x92c30b…
09-25 14:14:35	xauusd up or down on september 25 2026	Down	SELL	27	61¢	$16	0xd5af1f…
09-25 07:00:33	xauusd up or down on september 25 2026	Down	BUY	70	46¢	$32	0x15bf41…
09-25 07:00:20	xauusd up or down on september 25 2026	Down	BUY	80	46¢	$37	0xfaddd1…
09-24 20:31:23	xauusd up or down on september 24 2026	Down	SELL	71	99¢	$71	0xb24d4a…
09-24 13:58:05	xauusd up or down on september 24 2026	Down	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x3fdc71…
09-24 10:06:26	xauusd up or down on september 24 2026	Down	BUY	21	83¢	$17	0xb3c37d…
09-24 10:06:02	xauusd up or down on september 24 2026	Down	BUY	40	83¢	$33	0x6c834d…
09-24 10:06:00	xauusd up or down on september 24 2026	Down	BUY	9	83¢	$7	0x186e69…
09-24 09:49:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 24, 5AM ET	Down	SELL	60	99¢	$59	0x126ec5…
09-24 09:36:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 24, 5AM ET	Down	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0xb7a402…
09-24 09:33:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 24, 5AM ET	Down	BUY	50	97¢	$48	0xbd8bec…
09-23 06:34:19	Hyperliquid Up or Down - September 23, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	82¢	$4	0x6787be…
09-22 18:10:12	XRP Up or Down - September 22, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	50	63¢	$32	0x287325…
07-10 07:45:32	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on July 10?	Yes	BUY	8	23¢	$2	0x8cde3f…
07-08 07:42:56	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 6 to July 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	49¢	$6	0xbc43de…
07-08 07:41:37	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	23	43¢	$10	0xb03c60…
07-07 16:09:22	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?	Yes	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0x8e1e5b…
07-07 16:08:01	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 6 to July 8, 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	70¢	$5	0x0a6c5b…
07-07 07:25:02	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 9 to July 11, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	49¢	$2	0xbddd2c…
07-07 07:24:34	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 6 to July 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	40¢	$3	0x874bc9…
07-07 07:22:46	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	26¢	$3	0x7c2fcb…
07-07 07:20:31	Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	73¢	$2	0xf741e6…
07-06 10:18:05	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	49¢	$2	0xe45795…
07-06 09:26:05	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on July 6?	No	BUY	4	85¢	$3	0x81f661…
07-05 13:52:52	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on July 5?	Yes	BUY	3	55¢	$2	0xdfa0f2…
07-05 13:52:02	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on July 5?	Yes	SELL	6	33¢	$2	0xe60fec…
07-05 09:26:40	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 5?	No	SELL	2	0¢	$0	0x2c911c…
07-05 05:35:28	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x28bd5b…
07-05 05:34:47	Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	39¢	$1	0xaa8641…
07-05 05:34:05	Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	41¢	$2	0xc03320…
07-05 05:33:31	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	22¢	$3	0x3e4a76…
07-05 05:14:04	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	16¢	$2	0xd8e83a…
07-05 05:12:37	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?	Yes	SELL	16	9¢	$1	0xb297f1…
07-05 05:08:22	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on July 5?	Yes	BUY	6	54¢	$3	0x28902f…
07-05 04:46:29	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 5?	No	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0xc3e5dd…
07-05 04:29:23	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on July 5?	No	SELL	3	66¢	$2	0x0c44b6…
07-05 04:29:16	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on July 5?	Yes	SELL	17	15¢	$2	0x93cd6c…
07-05 04:27:46	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on July 5?	No	BUY	3	69¢	$2	0xbc672f…
07-05 04:25:44	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on July 5?	Yes	BUY	17	18¢	$3	0xfa313a…
07-05 04:24:52	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on July 5?	Yes	SELL	5	32¢	$2	0xf6f94b…
07-05 04:24:49	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on July 5?	Yes	SELL	3	31¢	$1	0xd2a909…
07-05 04:04:29	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on July 5?	Yes	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0xec6668…
07-05 04:04:14	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on July 5?	Yes	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x69a294…
07-05 03:52:52	Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?	Yes	SELL	17	37¢	$6	0x963810…
07-04 07:12:59	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	18	16¢	$3	0x3dc1dd…
07-04 07:12:44	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	16	19¢	$3	0xe78345…
07-04 07:12:05	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	25¢	$3	0x77f155…
07-04 07:11:59	Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	18¢	$3	0x666505…
07-04 07:11:41	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?	Yes	SELL	15	15¢	$2	0x89ec7c…
07-03 06:09:49	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	84¢	$2	0x313136…
07-03 06:09:28	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	15¢	$2	0x9237f8…
07-03 06:08:52	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	23¢	$3	0x635b63…
07-03 06:08:02	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?	Yes	SELL	24	16¢	$4	0x3d377a…
07-02 07:34:49	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	24¢	$2	0x17b52b…
07-02 07:34:26	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	50¢	$6	0xd8cb32…
07-02 07:33:32	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	21¢	$8	0xdaf3ed…
07-01 09:02:29	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?	Yes	SELL	31	16¢	$5	0x5a4b87…
07-01 07:17:37	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	40¢	$2	0xd42041…
06-30 08:12:02	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	25¢	$3	0x0c1d56…
06-30 08:10:38	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	25¢	$2	0xaa59ed…
06-30 08:01:22	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	51¢	$3	0x992896…
06-30 07:58:40	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	14¢	$7	0x9c239f…
06-30 07:58:32	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	4¢	$2	0xc04337…
06-28 13:59:22	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	17¢	$3	0xa8b548…
06-28 13:55:52	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	14	24¢	$3	0x1ed013…
06-28 10:00:53	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	14¢	$2	0xb8b27a…
06-28 10:00:07	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	42¢	$6	0x3a6b62…
06-28 09:58:35	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	41¢	$0	0xb81304…
06-28 09:57:05	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	54	16¢	$9	0x924262…
06-28 08:19:10	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0xa76c6d…
06-28 07:06:44	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	54	18¢	$10	0x840d54…
06-28 07:05:43	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	15	25¢	$4	0xcf38ca…
06-28 07:01:41	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026?	Yes	BUY	0	49¢	$0	0x35a85f…
06-28 07:01:14	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	49¢	$0	0x7894a7…
06-28 06:51:59	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	21¢	$10	0xdec4bd…
06-28 06:51:34	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	23¢	$12	0x1f5f76…
06-28 06:50:53	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?	Yes	SELL	38	18¢	$7	0x16b1fa…
06-28 06:41:31	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on June 27?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x2a0730…
06-27 16:18:10	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 27?	Yes	BUY	16	58¢	$9	0xe6dbae…
06-27 15:59:01	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on June 27?	No	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0x52514a…
06-27 15:58:44	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on June 27?	Yes	BUY	20	20¢	$4	0x47b4f7…
06-27 15:51:58	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 27?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x33d2cc…
06-27 15:44:04	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C on June 27?	Yes	SELL	11	99¢	$11	0xdf5eb7…
06-27 12:57:14	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 27?	No	BUY	10	85¢	$8	0xd0185d…
06-27 12:39:11	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 27?	No	SELL	10	91¢	$9	0x9e0b69…
06-27 10:12:50	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x724270…
06-27 10:01:16	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C on June 27?	Yes	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0xd019aa…
06-27 10:00:13	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 36°C on June 27?	No	SELL	14	49¢	$7	0x9ba52c…
06-27 07:33:08	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 27?	No	BUY	10	81¢	$8	0x52b032…
06-27 07:29:26	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 27?	No	BUY	10	74¢	$7	0x5a0059…
06-27 07:25:43	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	21¢	$5	0xcf2e6a…