Lumpy-Ruin — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$223

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

67.7%

Resolved

540

Trades

1,377

lifetime

Volume

$8.19K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-10

last 05-10 05:38

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 44 days

Categories

Crypto

88% 51% -$101

Other

12% 38% -$123

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-05-10).

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-26 05:45 UTC	4	$168	105	105	+1	Up	+$14	03-26 05:50
highest temperature in shanghai on march 28 2026 21c	2	$165	128	128	+0	Yes	+$90	03-28 17:56
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-26 06:15 UTC	10	$164	182	179	+2	Up	+$15	03-26 06:20
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-25 09:35 UTC	4	$129	152	151	+2	Up	+$36	03-25 09:38
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-25 05:30 UTC	5	$123	159	131	+28	Down	+$23	03-25 05:33
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-25 08:20 UTC	8	$113	160	158	+2	Down	+$14	03-25 08:24
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-25 05:20 UTC	4	$113	178	176	+2	Down	+$14	03-25 05:23
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-25 09:30 UTC	4	$98	134	132	+2	Down	-$4	03-25 09:34
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-27 20:10 UTC	7	$77	117	88	+29	Down	+$16	03-27 20:14
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-27 21:25 UTC	6	$77	129	128	+1	Up	+$17	03-27 21:28
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-25 05:35 UTC	6	$77	95	94	+1	Up	+$3	03-25 05:40
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-26 08:00 UTC	7	$75	103	102	+1	Down	+$16	03-26 08:04
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-25 08:50 UTC	2	$75	86	85	+1	Down	+$7	03-25 08:51
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-26 07:45 UTC	7	$74	102	65	+36	Up	-$8	03-26 07:48
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-27 22:55 UTC	9	$72	131	130	+1	Down	+$3	03-27 22:59
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-27 20:30 UTC	7	$71	133	131	+1	Down	+$1	03-27 20:34
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-25 07:05 UTC	7	$67	75	73	+1	Down	+$8	03-25 07:07
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-27 08:10 UTC	8	$67	73	72	+1	Down	+$22	03-27 08:15
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-27 17:40 UTC	7	$66	118	95	+23	Down	+$3	03-27 17:43
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-27 17:10 UTC	6	$65	81	80	+1	Up	+$15	03-27 17:15
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-27 19:00 UTC	7	$64	150	114	+37	Down	+$4	03-27 19:04
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-26 07:40 UTC	5	$62	84	77	+6	Up	+$1	03-26 07:44
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-27 18:05 UTC	7	$60	170	136	+34	Up	+$8	03-27 18:09
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-27 18:55 UTC	6	$59	87	86	+1	Down	+$10	03-27 18:59
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-25 09:00 UTC	8	$59	83	68	+15	Up	+$7	03-25 09:04
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-26 07:15 UTC	4	$57	76	75	+1	Down	+$17	03-26 07:19
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-25 01:00 UTC	4	$57	58	57	+1	Down	+$23	03-25 01:03
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-27 18:30 UTC	5	$56	85	60	+25	Up	+$4	03-27 18:34
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-27 07:50 UTC	4	$55	67	67	+1	Up	+$14	03-27 07:53
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-27 18:35 UTC	7	$54	92	91	+1	Down	+$5	03-27 18:39

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-10 05:38:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	Down	BUY	42	17¢	$7	0x875827…
05-10 05:33:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	Down	SELL	26	29¢	$7	0xbfa0df…
05-10 05:30:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	Down	BUY	26	19¢	$5	0x6efb75…
05-10 05:28:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Up	SELL	16	36¢	$6	0x4aa6f7…
05-10 05:28:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Up	BUY	16	25¢	$4	0x585d3c…
05-10 05:28:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Down	SELL	7	71¢	$5	0x4b174a…
05-10 05:27:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Down	BUY	7	44¢	$3	0xd2ec69…
05-10 05:22:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	Down	BUY	42	48¢	$20	0x8c9840…
05-10 05:18:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	Up	SELL	29	83¢	$24	0xb0a06e…
05-10 05:17:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	Up	BUY	29	21¢	$6	0xa990ed…
05-10 05:13:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	Down	SELL	20	34¢	$7	0xd526b1…
05-10 05:10:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	Down	BUY	20	24¢	$5	0x9900de…
05-10 05:09:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Down	BUY	4	4¢	$0	0x6feb2b…
05-10 05:04:15	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 10?	Yes	BUY	10	15¢	$2	0xb10e0a…
05-10 04:58:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Up	SELL	13	33¢	$4	0x26321a…
05-10 04:57:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Up	BUY	13	38¢	$5	0x82e1f3…
05-10 04:51:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xcd9879…
05-10 04:51:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	18¢	$1	0x2059da…
05-10 04:50:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	Down	BUY	10	29¢	$3	0x9661fd…
05-10 04:47:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	Up	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x4bca23…
05-10 04:46:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	Up	BUY	9	15¢	$1	0x46e02a…
05-10 04:46:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	Up	BUY	1	15¢	$0	0xa2e8be…
05-10 04:41:35	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 10?	Yes	BUY	10	18¢	$2	0xd12a36…
05-10 03:48:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Down	SELL	14	53¢	$7	0x49e0b3…
05-10 03:47:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Down	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x8424fe…
05-10 03:45:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Down	BUY	5	29¢	$1	0xb0fb1e…
05-10 03:40:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Down	SELL	13	55¢	$7	0x4c50ef…
05-10 03:40:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Down	BUY	13	38¢	$5	0xb3afb5…
05-10 03:39:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x3fe854…
05-10 03:33:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Down	BUY	13	38¢	$5	0xd42813…
05-10 03:33:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Up	SELL	17	30¢	$5	0xe3eafa…
05-10 03:30:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Up	BUY	17	29¢	$5	0xc672d6…
05-10 03:26:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	Up	BUY	16	31¢	$5	0x734c3a…
05-10 03:24:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Up	BUY	322	2¢	$5	0x96e1e1…
05-10 03:24:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Up	BUY	119	4¢	$5	0x002df0…
05-10 03:24:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Up	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0xf5a2ab…
05-10 01:30:20	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 10?	Yes	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0xf92cb7…
05-08 05:02:13	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 8?	No	BUY	26	4¢	$1	0x75a4b9…
05-08 04:54:15	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 8?	No	BUY	23	9¢	$2	0x4e9549…
05-08 02:35:37	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on May 8?	Yes	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0xfb6445…
05-08 02:35:11	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on May 8?	Yes	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0x2dabe2…
05-08 02:30:42	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 8?	Yes	BUY	10	24¢	$2	0x3e7fd2…
05-07 01:53:17	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on May 7?	Yes	BUY	5	14¢	$1	0xf718d4…
05-07 01:44:39	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 7?	Yes	BUY	5	27¢	$1	0x22f669…
05-03 03:41:16	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 3?	Yes	SELL	10	29¢	$3	0x35b4c9…
05-03 03:40:08	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C on May 3?	Yes	SELL	16	39¢	$6	0xf3b529…
05-03 01:30:52	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C on May 3?	Yes	BUY	8	19¢	$2	0x23cdef…
05-03 01:30:28	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C on May 3?	Yes	BUY	8	19¢	$2	0xe147de…
05-03 01:19:20	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 3?	Yes	BUY	10	25¢	$2	0xd687d1…
05-02 06:15:22	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 2?	Yes	SELL	6	39¢	$2	0x4bbb19…
05-02 04:38:32	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 2?	Yes	SELL	6	25¢	$1	0xd00a8a…
05-02 02:39:30	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 2?	Yes	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0xcdd121…
05-02 02:27:28	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 2?	Yes	BUY	5	13¢	$1	0x55f1ec…
04-27 07:22:34	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on April 27?	Yes	SELL	32	9¢	$3	0x460b80…
04-27 07:20:48	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on April 27?	Yes	SELL	17	5¢	$1	0x7647ef…
04-27 07:19:50	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on April 27?	Yes	SELL	3	10¢	$0	0x7a7ed5…
04-27 07:04:52	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on April 27?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xd77bcb…
04-27 07:02:14	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on April 27?	Yes	BUY	21	5¢	$1	0x140d32…
04-27 07:01:14	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on April 27?	Yes	BUY	13	8¢	$1	0x41c9b6…
04-27 06:26:08	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on April 27?	Yes	SELL	51	5¢	$3	0x67b5b0…
04-27 06:06:34	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on April 27?	Yes	SELL	36	21¢	$8	0x7001fc…
04-27 06:06:28	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on April 27?	Yes	BUY	53	9¢	$5	0x5e0d35…
04-27 05:58:14	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on April 27?	Yes	BUY	29	16¢	$5	0xf949f1…
04-27 05:52:12	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on April 27?	Yes	BUY	38	13¢	$5	0x67c1c1…
04-27 05:46:24	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on April 27?	Yes	SELL	37	17¢	$6	0x731b52…
04-27 05:30:16	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on April 27?	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x1b3787…
04-27 05:16:20	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on April 27?	Yes	SELL	9	45¢	$4	0xdf9057…
04-27 05:16:10	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on April 27?	Yes	SELL	0	45¢	$0	0xa696ec…
04-27 05:05:40	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on April 27?	Yes	SELL	0	45¢	$0	0x955d18…
04-27 01:27:26	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on April 27?	Yes	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0xf1dc85…
04-27 01:23:52	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on April 27?	Yes	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x6a381b…
04-27 01:23:24	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on April 27?	Yes	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x32065e…
04-26 03:56:48	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 26?	Yes	SELL	3	60¢	$2	0xeba731…
04-26 03:44:16	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 26?	Yes	SELL	8	15¢	$1	0xa518f2…
04-26 03:25:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Up	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x8d5e8e…
04-26 03:24:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Up	SELL	34	29¢	$10	0x69bc36…
04-26 03:22:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Up	BUY	36	22¢	$8	0x53d53b…
04-26 03:19:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Up	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x7b4c7d…
04-26 03:19:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Up	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x481332…
04-26 03:19:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Up	SELL	14	53¢	$7	0x5cbece…
04-26 03:18:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Up	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0x1b16f0…
04-26 03:14:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Up	SELL	10	82¢	$8	0x57b8d5…
04-26 03:14:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Up	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x4e5701…
04-26 03:13:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Up	SELL	13	45¢	$6	0xc3516d…
04-26 03:11:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Up	BUY	13	38¢	$5	0xa799db…
04-26 03:10:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Down	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xf96b66…
04-26 03:09:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Down	SELL	6	94¢	$5	0x5aff60…
04-26 03:09:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Down	BUY	6	88¢	$5	0xaa3cf9…
04-26 03:01:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Up	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x979f54…
04-26 02:56:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Up	SELL	3	37¢	$1	0x9bf0ca…
04-26 02:55:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Up	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x1578e1…
04-26 02:52:40	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C or higher on April 26?	Yes	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x10e85a…
04-26 01:48:16	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C or higher on April 26?	Yes	BUY	2	92¢	$2	0x9836db…
04-26 01:06:16	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 27?	Yes	SELL	4	39¢	$1	0x842cc1…
04-26 01:05:38	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 26?	Yes	BUY	3	55¢	$1	0x712d27…
04-26 01:04:50	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 27?	Yes	BUY	4	40¢	$2	0xd36f26…
04-26 01:02:22	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 26?	Yes	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0xfcd161…
04-24 07:22:40	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-24 07:20 UTC	Up	BUY	7	32¢	$2	0x77d9b5…
04-24 07:12:16	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-24 07:10 UTC	Down	SELL	6	42¢	$2	0xbff4c4…
04-24 07:11:42	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-24 07:10 UTC	Down	BUY	6	34¢	$2	0x35533b…