Super-Wedding — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$5

Unrealized P&L

+$7

Hit rate

53.7%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$146

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$27

2 positions

First seen

2026-04-15

last 06-11 20:16

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

53% — —

Other

33% 50% $-5

Sports

7% 100% +$0

Crypto

7% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

8 active days in 12wk • peak 7 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No		+18	$10	94¢	$17	+$7	06-11 20:16
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?	No		+12	$10	82¢	$10	$-0	06-11 20:00

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	2	$15	14	7	+7	open	—	04-30 16:36
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	1	$14	15	0	+15	open	—	04-25 20:55
Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15?	2	$13	1,183	1,183	+0	No	$-6	04-25 21:21
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	1	$12	22	0	+22	open	—	06-11 19:41
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?	2	$10	14	14	+0	No	+$0	04-25 19:41
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	1	$10	18	0	+18	open	—	06-11 20:16
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	1	$10	17	0	+17	open	—	04-30 17:04
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?	1	$10	12	0	+12	open	—	06-11 20:00
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?	1	$10	12	0	+12	open	—	04-30 17:02
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	2	$10	5	5	+0	open	—	05-05 10:49
iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	1	$8	10	0	+10	open	—	06-11 20:07
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by May 31?	1	$8	8	0	+8	open	—	05-02 13:59
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	2	$8	6	6	+0	open	—	05-14 22:47
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	1	$5	6	0	+6	Yes	+$1	04-25 21:21
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	04-16 10:24
nba gsw lac 2026 04 15 spread home 5pt5	1	$0	40	0	+40	open	—	04-16 04:50

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-11 20:16:18	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	18	55¢	$10	0xdae781…
06-11 20:07:25	iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	No	BUY	10	82¢	$8	0x1e370e…
06-11 20:00:30	Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?	No	BUY	12	83¢	$10	0x367b86…
06-11 19:41:51	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	22	54¢	$12	0x2cc9f0…
05-14 22:47:07	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	Yes	SELL	6	46¢	$3	0x80540e…
05-05 10:55:12	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	Yes	BUY	6	79¢	$5	0xa06019…
05-05 10:49:36	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0xf25995…
05-02 13:59:18	Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by May 31?	No	BUY	8	95¢	$8	0x37cade…
04-30 17:04:36	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	17	59¢	$10	0x8a082f…
04-30 17:02:28	Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?	No	BUY	12	83¢	$10	0xf4648e…
04-30 16:36:32	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	7	82¢	$6	0x33fb50…
04-25 21:21:52	Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15?	Yes	SELL	1,183	0¢	$3	0xb75760…
04-25 21:21:26	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	Yes	BUY	6	88¢	$5	0x368769…
04-25 21:02:08	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	14	68¢	$10	0x58e480…
04-25 20:59:32	Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15?	Yes	BUY	1,183	1¢	$10	0x0b8fba…
04-25 20:55:50	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	15	97¢	$14	0x0c7510…
04-25 20:05:04	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xf2bd90…
04-25 19:41:40	Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	SELL	14	36¢	$5	0xed46e5…
04-16 10:24:24	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x194dec…
04-16 05:55:04	Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	BUY	14	34¢	$5	0x81c10d…
04-16 04:50:08	nba gsw lac 2026 04 15 spread home 5pt5	Clippers	BUY	40	0¢	$0	0x73a4bf…
04-15 05:18:24	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xdda1db…