Early-Keystone — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$0

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

0.0%

Resolved

Trades

150

lifetime

Volume

$155

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 05-21 01:24

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

55% 0% $-0

Politics

15% — —

Crypto

14% — —

Tech

9% — —

Sports

5% — —

Pop-Culture

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

13 active days in 12wk • peak 6 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will logan pauls psa 10 pokmon illustrator sale price be over 4 million	9	$10	5	5	+0	open	—	01-15 02:00
Once Upon a Farm IPO before 2027?	9	$8	4	4	+0	open	—	02-03 02:14
Cerebras IPO before 2027?	7	$8	4	4	+0	open	—	03-14 08:54
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	7	$7	4	3	+1	open	—	02-27 07:27
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 35% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	4	$6	3	3	+0	open	—	03-18 08:18
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Rounds 1-2	3	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	05-15 07:28
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch?	3	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	04-27 01:28
bitcoin above 64k on march 23	3	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	03-23 08:07
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	4	$4	2	2	+0	Yes	$-0	03-18 08:19
Backpack FDV above $100M one day after launch?	3	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	03-17 02:15
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	03-20 03:34
Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping?	3	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	05-14 02:58
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	04-24 01:58
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	04-08 06:06
cbb furman samf 2026 01 14	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	01-15 02:01
will trump admin release any more epstein related files by 777	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	02-03 02:13
will larry page be 2nd richest person on march 31	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	03-24 02:12
Based FDV above $800M one day after launch?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	03-31 01:26
Based FDV above $500M one day after launch?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	03-31 01:26
will the government shutdown last 1 day or more 842	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	01-31 02:16
will google have the best ai model at the end of january 2026	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	01-15 01:59
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 20?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	05-21 01:24
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 323	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	03-14 08:53
EdgeX FDV above $300M one day after launch?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	04-01 07:43
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 7th 659	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	04-08 06:06
will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	02-23 05:40
bitcoin above 58k on march 13	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	03-11 07:27
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	03-21 04:03
will bitcoin reach 82k march 30 april 5	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	03-31 01:27
Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by May 31, 2026?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	05-21 01:23

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-21 01:24:08	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 20?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x64b940…
05-21 01:23:52	Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x865fd3…
05-21 01:23:02	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 20?	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x43532c…
05-21 01:21:18	Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x983f80…
05-15 07:29:09	Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22?	Yes	SELL	1	70¢	$1	0xd94f1a…
05-15 07:28:56	LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Rounds 1-2	Nongshim Esports Academy	SELL	2	97¢	$2	0x767ff7…
05-15 07:27:50	LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Rounds 1-2	Nongshim Esports Academy	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x830d94…
05-15 07:26:56	LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Rounds 1-2	Nongshim Esports Academy	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x86294a…
05-15 07:24:30	Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22?	Yes	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x2e6f08…
05-14 02:59:52	Will Trump say "Silk Road" during Chinese State Banquet?	No	SELL	1	82¢	$1	0x9d52a5…
05-14 02:58:54	Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	SELL	2	83¢	$2	0x25ab3c…
05-14 02:58:01	Will Trump say "Silk Road" during Chinese State Banquet?	No	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0xfb179b…
05-14 02:55:41	Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0xc59cb8…
05-14 02:53:55	Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0x5ef418…
05-13 01:11:43	Bengaluru 2: Keegan Smith vs Dominik Palan	Keegan Smith	SELL	1	82¢	$1	0x055b45…
05-13 01:10:44	Bengaluru 2: Keegan Smith vs Dominik Palan	Keegan Smith	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0x086f92…
05-06 02:40:32	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $109 on May 6?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x5c24cd…
05-06 02:39:24	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $109 on May 6?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x822d25…
04-27 01:28:36	MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0x2ebfc3…
04-27 01:27:32	Jiujiang: Alexis Galarneau vs Dane Sweeny	Alexis Galarneau	SELL	2	56¢	$1	0xeafda7…
04-27 01:16:28	MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xb8f682…
04-24 01:58:14	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x61b40b…
04-24 01:53:26	MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x276fe9…
04-15 01:59:10	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	Yes	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x57ec71…
04-13 02:12:35	val eterna bjk 2026 04 13	Eternal Fire Passion	SELL	2	55¢	$1	0xe9dd41…
04-13 02:11:49	val eterna bjk 2026 04 13	Eternal Fire Passion	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0xd20ebd…
04-08 06:07:25	dota2 pari gl 2026 04 08	PARIVISION	SELL	1	79¢	$1	0x181f8e…
04-08 06:06:57	trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 7th 659	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xa7cc0d…
04-08 06:06:31	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xa88044…
04-08 06:04:41	dota2 pari gl 2026 04 08	PARIVISION	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xb343fe…
04-08 06:03:21	trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 7th 659	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x8aca0b…
04-07 06:48:13	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x763a57…
04-01 07:43:59	Fed Rate Hike by April 2026 Meeting?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x71f892…
04-01 07:43:41	EdgeX FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xac2529…
04-01 07:43:13	Fed Rate Hike by April 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x251f0f…
04-01 07:42:19	EdgeX FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x8be7b0…
03-31 01:27:17	will bitcoin reach 82k march 30 april 5	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x79a26f…
03-31 01:26:55	Based FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x2f0a9a…
03-31 01:26:15	Based FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x6a6bb1…
03-31 01:25:27	will bitcoin reach 82k march 30 april 5	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x7c1437…
03-31 01:22:45	Based FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xa92ce7…
03-31 01:21:11	Based FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xaae7fc…
03-28 02:07:29	will the dhs shutdown last 44 days or more 544	Yes	SELL	1	64¢	$1	0xe0b22d…
03-28 02:05:49	will the dhs shutdown last 44 days or more 544	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xdbcbd9…
03-28 02:02:33	will kanye release bully by march 27	Yes	SELL	1	9¢	$0	0xc8ea5f…
03-28 02:00:09	cbb ala mich 2026 03 27	Alabama Crimson Tide	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xec025b…
03-27 01:29:23	will claude by anthropic be 2 free app in the us apple app store on march 27	Yes	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x6d9462…
03-27 01:24:39	will claude by anthropic be 2 free app in the us apple app store on march 27	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x75a703…
03-27 01:24:11	will kanye release bully by march 27	Yes	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0xfc551e…
03-24 02:12:43	Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	Yes	SELL	1	86¢	$1	0xa9013b…
03-24 02:12:33	will larry page be 2nd richest person on march 31	Yes	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x49806b…
03-24 02:11:55	will larry page be 2nd richest person on march 31	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x26fe5f…
03-24 02:09:57	Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	Yes	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0x381003…
03-23 08:07:15	will jamie be said 3 times on the first joe rogan experience episode of the week march 29	Yes	SELL	1	85¢	$1	0xaa4d3c…
03-23 08:07:01	bitcoin above 64k on march 23	Yes	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x472650…
03-23 08:06:07	will jamie be said 3 times on the first joe rogan experience episode of the week march 29	Yes	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x1382ad…
03-23 08:05:29	bitcoin above 64k on march 23	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xf2d1fc…
03-23 08:04:45	bitcoin above 64k on march 23	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x986e70…
03-23 02:28:55	iran leadership change by march 31	No	SELL	1	91¢	$1	0x9ccf7f…
03-23 02:25:29	iran leadership change by march 31	No	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0xcfa04e…
03-21 04:03:29	Will Gustavo Petro be charged in the US by April 30?	No	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0x26a68b…
03-21 04:03:11	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xde6678…
03-21 04:02:09	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x7ee385…
03-21 04:00:51	Will Gustavo Petro be charged in the US by April 30?	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xe166c7…
03-20 03:35:09	nke quarterly earnings gaap eps 03 31 2026 0pt29	Yes	SELL	1	85¢	$1	0xb9b763…
03-20 03:34:51	Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	Yes	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0xe7e6da…
03-20 03:34:27	nke quarterly earnings gaap eps 03 31 2026 0pt29	Yes	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0xb0d2c8…
03-20 03:33:55	Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	Yes	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x8d6938…
03-19 01:35:25	highest temperature in chicago on march 22 2026 63forbelow	Yes	SELL	1	85¢	$1	0x0d7b2d…
03-19 01:34:53	Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	Yes	SELL	1	91¢	$1	0xec2ab0…
03-19 01:21:49	highest temperature in chicago on march 22 2026 63forbelow	Yes	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0x361e3d…
03-19 01:18:19	Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	Yes	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0xbf4f2e…
03-18 08:19:15	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0xae05b2…
03-18 08:18:33	Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 35% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	Yes	SELL	3	90¢	$3	0xc19738…
03-18 08:15:47	Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 35% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	Yes	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x398c7d…
03-18 08:15:17	Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 35% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	Yes	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x4b4229…
03-18 08:14:49	Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 35% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	Yes	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x56d526…
03-18 08:12:13	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x1fbfb2…
03-17 02:15:43	Backpack FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0x08da07…
03-17 02:15:25	will fidesz kdnp win at least 80 seats	Yes	SELL	1	69¢	$1	0x2d36ee…
03-17 02:14:19	Backpack FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x62abfd…
03-17 02:13:59	Backpack FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x7a6aa9…
03-17 02:12:51	will fidesz kdnp win at least 80 seats	Yes	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0xaafe01…
03-14 08:54:01	Cerebras IPO before 2027?	Yes	SELL	1	88¢	$1	0xedaf96…
03-14 08:53:45	will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 323	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x02a71f…
03-14 08:52:39	Cerebras IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x41042b…
03-14 08:51:01	will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 323	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x5a596a…
03-11 07:27:25	meta close above 630 on march 11 2026	Yes	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x7312bf…
03-11 07:27:03	bitcoin above 58k on march 13	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x9de753…
03-11 07:25:59	meta close above 630 on march 11 2026	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xdbeebd…
03-11 07:25:17	bitcoin above 58k on march 13	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x496011…
03-09 06:32:05	will apple be the second largest company in the world by market cap on march 31	Yes	SELL	1	78¢	$1	0x7c4eb5…
03-09 06:31:47	will cdu win the most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	Yes	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x0093b7…
03-09 06:30:49	will cdu win the most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x123694…
03-09 06:28:33	will apple be the second largest company in the world by market cap on march 31	Yes	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0x965afd…
03-05 10:04:27	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x256268…
03-05 10:04:09	Cerebras IPO before 2027?	Yes	SELL	2	84¢	$2	0xcaff21…
03-05 10:03:25	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x4e01c6…
02-27 07:27:03	Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	Yes	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0xb1dae0…
02-27 07:25:37	Cerebras IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xea6579…