Realized P&L
-$266
Unrealized P&L
-$2
Hit rate
62.6%
Resolved
836
Trades
2,480
lifetime
Volume
$9.01K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$4
Open exposure
$145
30 positions
First seen
2026-09-05
last 10-29 05:06
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 37 days
Categories
Crypto
61% 60% -$112
Other
31% 64% -$157
Politics
5% 60% +$3
Sports
3% 100% +$0
Tech
0% 0% $0
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
43 active days in 12wk • peak 376 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No -20 -$10 60¢ $-12 -$2 09-17 15:35
Will ANSEM be the first to hit a $1B FDV? No +10 $10 100¢ $10 +$0 09-29 11:57
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026? Yes -10 -$10 98¢ $-10 $0 10-28 07:02
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? No +5 $5 100¢ $5 +$0 10-06 00:56
Will Kim Jong Un be the next leader out before 2027? No +5 $5 100¢ $5 +$0 10-13 20:14
Will Trump and Putin meet next in a Gulf country? No +5 $5 100¢ $5 +$0 09-29 10:24
Will Trump and Putin meet next in United States? No +5 $5 100¢ $5 +$0 09-29 10:24
Will Trump and Putin meet next in another country? No +5 $5 99¢ $5 +$0 10-10 12:09
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? No +5 $5 99¢ $5 +$0 09-29 10:27
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the next leader out before 2027? No +5 $5 100¢ $5 +$0 09-30 17:34
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US before 2027? No +5 $5 99¢ $5 +$0 09-29 10:23
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +5 $5 97¢ $5 $0 09-29 10:24
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No +5 $5 97¢ $5 $0 09-29 10:23
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +5 $4 96¢ $5 +$0 09-29 18:55
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? No +5 $5 96¢ $5 +$0 10-08 20:45
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? No +5 $5 94¢ $5 +$0 10-10 11:09
Will there be 20 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? No +5 $5 94¢ $5 $0 09-29 10:24
Will Pedro Sánchez be the next leader out before 2027? No +5 $5 91¢ $5 $0 09-29 10:23
Will Trump and Putin not meet? No +5 $4 84¢ $4 +$0 10-16 00:30
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes -5 -$4 85¢ $-4 +$0 09-29 11:38
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027? No +5 $3 82¢ $4 +$1 10-24 03:25
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? Yes -5 -$3 80¢ $-4 -$1 09-29 11:38
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No +5 $3 68¢ $3 +$0 09-19 08:03
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? No +5 $1 68¢ $3 +$2 10-24 03:25
Will there be between 17 and 19 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? No +5 $4 64¢ $3 -$1 10-24 03:25
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +5 $3 56¢ $3 -$1 10-24 03:25
Will there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? No +5 $2 49¢ $2 +$0 10-24 03:25
Will no qualifying US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place by December 31, 2026? No +5 $3 46¢ $2 -$1 10-24 03:25
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? No +5 $3 44¢ $2 -$1 10-24 03:23
Will no listed leader be out before 2027? No +5 $3 38¢ $2 -$1 09-29 15:06