Exotic-Bough — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$912

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

45.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$8.45K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$107

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-10

last 07-06 19:33

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 17 days

Categories

Other

42% 40% -$205

Crypto

32% 33% -$40

Politics

27% 17% -$667

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-07-06).

Open positions Resolved markets (24) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	14	$1.7K	25,778	3,641	+22,138	No	+$4	06-03 20:18
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	2	$917	639	639	+0	Yes	-$3	05-31 16:46
elon musk of tweets february 27 march 6 180 199	8	$724	944	944	+0	No	-$72	03-06 06:25
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	4	$651	1,835	1,835	+0	No	-$206	03-30 19:12
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	4	$567	477	477	+0	Yes	-$5	06-23 07:40
elon musk of tweets february 24 march 3 200 219	2	$488	389	389	+0	Yes	+$288	03-03 17:04
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	3	$401	700	700	+0	Yes	-$399	03-01 19:06
elon musk of tweets february 27 march 6 200 219	3	$395	487	487	+0	Yes	+$4	03-06 05:41
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	2	$358	256	256	+0	No	+$92	07-06 19:33
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	2	$287	152	152	+0	No	+$16	06-22 09:19
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	2	$284	431	431	+0	No	-$13	06-22 18:55
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026?	2	$282	182	182	+0	Yes	+$82	06-01 17:23
elon musk of tweets february 27 march 6 160 179	3	$251	503	503	+0	No	+$21	03-05 09:52
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?	1	$221	346	0	+346	No	-$221	07-06 19:33
elon musk of tweets february 27 march 6 140 159	11	$204	597	597	+0	No	-$112	03-05 08:21
elon musk of tweets february 27 march 6 120 139	4	$195	592	592	+0	No	-$163	03-04 20:20
deepseek v4 released by march 15 678	2	$162	158	158	+0	No	-$35	03-03 17:03
elon musk of tweets march 3 march 10 260 279	1	$131	918	0	+918	No	-$131	03-06 06:26
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	1	$59	228	0	+228	No	-$59	01-10 22:06
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-31 07:35 UTC	1	$42	106	0	+106	Up	-$42	03-31 07:39
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	2	$32	200	0	+200	No	-$32	06-09 19:13
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	2	$32	167	0	+167	Yes	+$135	06-09 19:13
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	2	$32	178	0	+178	No	-$32	06-09 19:13
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	1	$30	115	0	+115	No	-$30	06-19 20:22

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-06 19:33:56	Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	346	64¢	$221	0x1fdc42…
07-06 19:33:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	256	88¢	$225	0xd80fa8…
06-23 07:40:38	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	256	52¢	$133	0x3671ee…
06-23 07:40:16	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	221	60¢	$133	0x000a3d…
06-22 18:55:56	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	221	61¢	$135	0x73221c…
06-22 18:55:28	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	431	31¢	$135	0x63b506…
06-22 12:00:22	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	431	35¢	$149	0xfa102b…
06-22 11:59:47	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	256	58¢	$148	0x68e739…
06-22 09:37:07	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	256	59¢	$151	0x1acbe1…
06-22 09:19:46	Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	No	SELL	152	99¢	$151	0xb526ec…
06-19 20:25:25	Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	No	BUY	152	89¢	$135	0x260d02…
06-19 20:22:38	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	115	26¢	$30	0x29e207…
06-09 19:13:54	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	35	20¢	$7	0xf85542…
06-09 19:13:43	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	39	18¢	$7	0x783dad…
06-09 19:13:34	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	44	16¢	$7	0x26bab7…
06-09 19:13:04	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	156	16¢	$25	0x9dd64b…
06-09 19:12:31	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	132	19¢	$25	0x972b87…
06-09 19:11:58	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	139	18¢	$25	0x5991ba…
06-03 20:18:25	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5,000	0¢	$15	0x955916…
06-03 20:15:42	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	16,667	0¢	$50	0x658478…
06-01 17:23:43	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026?	Yes	SELL	182	100¢	$182	0x75c296…
06-01 17:23:32	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	555	100¢	$554	0x82be78…
06-01 12:09:56	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	68	72¢	$49	0x05abbc…
06-01 12:09:16	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	200	25¢	$50	0xb8ef69…
06-01 12:08:23	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	755	20¢	$151	0x9cb187…
06-01 12:07:17	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	260	77¢	$200	0x9356f9…
06-01 12:06:51	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	143	70¢	$100	0x6b49af…
05-31 16:50:23	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026?	Yes	BUY	182	55¢	$100	0x6b94ab…
05-31 16:46:15	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	639	72¢	$457	0xc9fefa…
05-31 16:21:43	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,600	7¢	$115	0xdc2610…
05-31 16:00:11	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	8¢	$1	0x06b3cf…
05-31 13:53:05	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,587	8¢	$126	0x1c2279…
05-31 13:07:52	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,286	11¢	$136	0x449170…
05-30 17:13:28	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	76	13¢	$10	0xbb50fc…
05-30 17:12:23	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	639	72¢	$460	0xe17a74…
05-30 17:11:48	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,210	12¢	$150	0x57d616…
03-31 07:39:39	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-31 07:35 UTC	Down	BUY	106	39¢	$42	0xc63234…
03-30 19:12:11	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	SELL	883	5¢	$41	0xe28fd0…
03-23 20:29:59	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	883	20¢	$181	0x22b5d4…
03-23 11:12:05	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	SELL	952	19¢	$181	0xa9e42e…
03-21 10:01:41	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	952	26¢	$247	0x2980c8…
03-06 06:26:53	elon musk of tweets march 3 march 10 260 279	Yes	BUY	918	14¢	$131	0x8ef44d…
03-06 06:25:13	elon musk of tweets february 27 march 6 180 199	Yes	SELL	388	34¢	$131	0x0dd2c9…
03-06 05:42:13	elon musk of tweets february 27 march 6 180 199	Yes	BUY	388	51¢	$199	0xde894b…
03-06 05:41:57	elon musk of tweets february 27 march 6 200 219	Yes	SELL	487	41¢	$199	0x443e4e…
03-05 16:42:03	elon musk of tweets february 27 march 6 200 219	Yes	BUY	92	41¢	$38	0x1a5dd6…
03-05 16:41:51	elon musk of tweets february 27 march 6 180 199	Yes	SELL	110	34¢	$38	0xeed109…
03-05 16:41:37	elon musk of tweets february 27 march 6 200 219	Yes	BUY	395	40¢	$158	0xab3452…
03-05 16:41:15	elon musk of tweets february 27 march 6 180 199	Yes	SELL	447	35¢	$158	0xb2f78a…
03-05 09:52:35	elon musk of tweets february 27 march 6 180 199	Yes	BUY	337	40¢	$136	0xb7ff8b…
03-05 09:52:17	elon musk of tweets february 27 march 6 160 179	Yes	SELL	503	27¢	$136	0x817409…
03-05 08:21:55	elon musk of tweets february 27 march 6 180 199	Yes	BUY	129	36¢	$46	0x841517…
03-05 08:21:05	elon musk of tweets february 27 march 6 140 159	Yes	SELL	597	8¢	$46	0x320ab4…
03-04 20:20:33	elon musk of tweets february 27 march 6 180 199	Yes	BUY	15	18¢	$3	0xfd64e9…
03-04 20:20:11	elon musk of tweets february 27 march 6 120 139	Yes	SELL	89	3¢	$3	0x425dda…
03-04 19:59:19	elon musk of tweets february 27 march 6 180 199	Yes	BUY	76	18¢	$14	0x6af3fe…
03-04 19:58:47	elon musk of tweets february 27 march 6 120 139	Yes	SELL	503	3¢	$14	0x0de326…
03-04 08:06:35	elon musk of tweets february 27 march 6 160 179	Yes	BUY	94	16¢	$15	0x3d0532…
03-04 08:06:17	elon musk of tweets february 27 march 6 120 139	Yes	BUY	92	32¢	$29	0x3202d6…
03-04 08:05:37	elon musk of tweets february 27 march 6 140 159	Yes	BUY	98	29¢	$28	0xf69e18…
03-04 08:03:33	elon musk of tweets february 27 march 6 140 159	Yes	BUY	40	29¢	$12	0x1a454d…
03-04 08:03:09	elon musk of tweets february 27 march 6 140 159	Yes	BUY	6	29¢	$2	0x442e47…
03-04 08:02:59	elon musk of tweets february 27 march 6 140 159	Yes	BUY	20	29¢	$6	0xfe7b8e…
03-04 08:02:59	elon musk of tweets february 27 march 6 140 159	Yes	BUY	10	29¢	$3	0x60d318…
03-04 08:02:59	elon musk of tweets february 27 march 6 120 139	Yes	BUY	500	30¢	$150	0x01a056…
03-04 08:02:41	elon musk of tweets february 27 march 6 140 159	Yes	BUY	15	29¢	$4	0xc50f78…
03-04 08:02:25	elon musk of tweets february 27 march 6 140 159	Yes	BUY	29	29¢	$8	0xe9845b…
03-04 08:02:23	elon musk of tweets february 27 march 6 140 159	Yes	BUY	7	29¢	$2	0x19818c…
03-04 08:01:59	elon musk of tweets february 27 march 6 140 159	Yes	BUY	250	29¢	$72	0xc2ba01…
03-03 17:42:23	elon musk of tweets february 27 march 6 140 159	Yes	BUY	123	17¢	$21	0x491ab8…
03-03 17:39:21	elon musk of tweets february 27 march 6 160 179	Yes	BUY	409	24¢	$100	0x4c6b0d…
03-03 17:04:35	elon musk of tweets february 24 march 3 200 219	Yes	SELL	389	100¢	$388	0xdb8222…
03-03 17:03:15	deepseek v4 released by march 15 678	Yes	SELL	158	40¢	$63	0x1847e7…
03-01 20:09:33	deepseek v4 released by march 15 678	Yes	BUY	158	62¢	$98	0x2143b9…
03-01 20:01:25	elon musk of tweets february 24 march 3 200 219	Yes	BUY	389	26¢	$100	0x50d84f…
03-01 19:06:03	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	No	SELL	700	0¢	$1	0x67e5ea…
02-28 18:15:53	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	No	BUY	427	47¢	$200	0xebaa09…
02-28 18:07:09	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	No	BUY	272	74¢	$201	0x41e1b4…
01-10 22:06:44	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	Yes	BUY	228	26¢	$59	0xb96e92…