Likely-Firm — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$809

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

50.5%

Resolved

1,284

Trades

3,194

lifetime

Volume

$89.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$28

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-17

last 05-29 13:48

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 43 days

Categories

Crypto

57% 50% +$1,199

Politics

16% 31% -$420

Other

14% 35% -$887

Sports

13% 44% -$701

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-05-29).

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?	190	$12.4K	12,629	12,629	+0	Yes	-$151	05-05 19:53
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-22 23:35 UTC	7	$1.9K	1,815	871	+945	Up	-$167	04-22 23:40
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	12	$1.6K	1,427	818	+609	Up	+$61	04-29 13:50
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-22 20:55 UTC	7	$1.3K	979	736	+243	Down	+$155	04-22 21:00
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI?	137	$1.3K	1,525	1,525	+0	cancelled	-$163	05-10 17:59
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-24 01:10 UTC	6	$1.2K	875	684	+192	Up	+$195	04-24 01:15
nba hou lal 2026 04 18	23	$1.1K	748	742	+6	Lakers	+$57	04-19 03:30
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-24 16:20 UTC	8	$1.1K	936	574	+363	Up	+$86	04-24 16:25
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	9	$1.1K	883	542	+341	Down	+$19	05-09 11:40
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-22 21:05 UTC	9	$996	768	572	+197	Up	+$152	04-22 21:10
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	7	$933	1,162	336	+825	Down	-$256	04-24 23:40
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	12	$914	1,046	403	+643	Down	-$116	05-04 02:05
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-23 04:25 UTC	4	$906	637	613	+24	Up	+$331	04-23 04:31
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-22 21:55 UTC	5	$879	490	484	+6	Up	+$85	04-22 22:00
nba min den 2026 04 18	15	$857	923	911	+13	Nuggets	-$141	04-18 21:11
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	6	$800	530	430	+100	Down	+$50	05-09 10:00
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-22 22:10 UTC	5	$796	517	501	+16	Down	+$212	04-22 22:15
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-22 23:40 UTC	5	$774	588	328	+260	Down	-$120	04-22 23:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	9	$761	1,027	339	+687	Up	-$82	04-26 19:50
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	12	$707	634	634	+0	No	+$30	04-22 01:33
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-22 21:20 UTC	6	$693	570	359	+211	Down	+$26	04-22 21:25
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-23 01:45 UTC	3	$684	570	540	+30	Up	+$415	04-23 01:50
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-23 04:15 UTC	9	$640	874	131	+743	Down	-$375	04-23 04:20
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-24 19:50 UTC	5	$616	492	319	+173	Up	+$25	04-24 19:55
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-22 13:20 UTC	7	$584	475	287	+188	Up	-$9	04-22 13:25
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	10	$567	447	447	+0	Down	+$107	05-09 10:50
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	3	$533	370	314	+56	Down	+$89	05-01 20:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	6	$523	548	223	+325	Up	-$72	04-25 21:45
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-23 23:05 UTC	5	$522	335	325	+10	Down	+$132	04-23 23:10
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-24 12:35 UTC	9	$500	926	0	+926	Up	-$30	04-24 12:40

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-29 13:48:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Up	SELL	13	61¢	$8	0x7fed58…
05-29 13:48:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9AM ET	Up	SELL	12	42¢	$5	0x6f6623…
05-29 13:48:35	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on May 29?	No	SELL	5	93¢	$5	0x12f35b…
05-29 13:48:28	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on May 30?	No	SELL	5	91¢	$5	0x8e6fd6…
05-29 13:48:21	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on May 29?	No	SELL	6	87¢	$5	0x1fbb04…
05-29 13:48:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Up	SELL	24	54¢	$13	0x732ffe…
05-29 13:48:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9AM ET	Down	SELL	13	57¢	$8	0x8427b8…
05-29 13:48:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Up	BUY	13	76¢	$10	0xd2eb44…
05-29 13:45:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Up	BUY	6	41¢	$2	0xfccc49…
05-29 13:45:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Up	BUY	19	41¢	$8	0x868281…
05-29 13:45:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Up	SELL	141	99¢	$140	0x4abfb9…
05-29 13:44:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	53	47¢	$25	0xbe8ea3…
05-29 13:43:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	35	72¢	$25	0x19b0f6…
05-29 13:43:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	53	47¢	$25	0x749bd6…
05-29 13:42:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Down	BUY	35	71¢	$25	0xd14744…
05-29 13:41:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Up	SELL	36	13¢	$5	0x2beb2c…
05-29 13:40:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Down	BUY	14	70¢	$10	0x2fc3d1…
05-29 13:40:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	14	28¢	$4	0xf6cb5b…
05-29 13:40:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	21	28¢	$6	0x6f3afd…
05-29 13:37:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9AM ET	Down	BUY	0	75¢	$0	0xdfd453…
05-29 13:37:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9AM ET	Down	BUY	6	75¢	$4	0xc9a5dd…
05-29 13:37:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9AM ET	Down	BUY	7	75¢	$5	0xaf9ffc…
05-29 13:36:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Down	BUY	68	4¢	$3	0xeb78e3…
05-29 13:36:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Down	BUY	152	4¢	$6	0xdf3db7…
05-29 13:36:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Down	BUY	1	4¢	$0	0x8fff02…
05-29 13:36:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x687cbd…
05-29 13:36:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Down	BUY	21	4¢	$1	0x25d7e6…
05-29 13:36:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Down	BUY	2	4¢	$0	0xa4380e…
05-29 13:36:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9AM ET	Up	BUY	12	14¢	$2	0x8721f0…
05-29 13:33:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Down	SELL	14	99¢	$13	0xfa1ead…
05-29 13:32:47	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on May 29?	No	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x1bb55b…
05-29 13:31:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Down	BUY	14	74¢	$10	0xa9418b…
05-29 12:37:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8AM ET	Up	BUY	125	8¢	$10	0xcde988…
05-29 12:37:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Down	BUY	27	37¢	$10	0x254067…
05-29 12:35:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Up	BUY	33	30¢	$10	0x57f31b…
05-29 12:35:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Down	BUY	32	79¢	$25	0x12d604…
05-29 12:35:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Down	BUY	14	70¢	$10	0x5c395a…
05-29 11:24:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Down	BUY	56	18¢	$10	0x55a166…
05-29 11:24:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Down	BUY	62	16¢	$10	0x56ce71…
05-29 11:21:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7AM ET	Up	BUY	14	71¢	$10	0x49451b…
05-29 11:00:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7AM ET	Up	BUY	24	41¢	$10	0xb31da7…
05-29 10:50:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6AM ET	Up	SELL	24	4¢	$1	0xd7a477…
05-29 10:17:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6AM ET	Down	BUY	14	73¢	$10	0xb87cd2…
05-29 10:16:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Down	BUY	15	56¢	$8	0xe7d719…
05-29 10:15:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Up	BUY	48	52¢	$25	0x38ec02…
05-29 10:12:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6AM ET	Up	BUY	24	41¢	$10	0xeda7c8…
05-29 10:12:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Up	BUY	31	81¢	$25	0x3555bc…
05-29 10:10:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Up	BUY	35	71¢	$25	0x138059…
05-29 10:09:26	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on May 29?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x489f1d…
05-29 10:05:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Up	BUY	14	70¢	$10	0x70661d…
05-29 10:01:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Down	BUY	14	70¢	$10	0x248721…
05-29 09:57:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	14	69¢	$10	0x7dd768…
05-29 09:51:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Up	BUY	13	62¢	$8	0xd30a26…
05-29 09:46:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Down	BUY	14	69¢	$10	0x66e67c…
05-29 09:45:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Up	BUY	24	38¢	$9	0x49200d…
05-29 09:42:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Up	BUY	24	27¢	$7	0xf55a88…
05-29 09:42:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Up	BUY	13	27¢	$3	0x246356…
05-29 09:21:11	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on May 30?	No	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x6e19e7…
05-29 09:04:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5AM ET	Down	BUY	25	40¢	$10	0xc52486…
05-29 08:59:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Down	SELL	14	99¢	$14	0xccd04f…
05-29 08:59:27	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on May 29?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x6c44f4…
05-29 08:55:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Down	BUY	14	70¢	$10	0x7c479c…
05-29 08:51:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Down	BUY	9	65¢	$6	0xf6b143…
05-29 08:45:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Up	BUY	24	42¢	$10	0xeb7213…
05-29 08:42:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Up	BUY	50	19¢	$10	0xa63e40…
05-29 08:41:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Up	BUY	14	70¢	$10	0xef9c73…
05-29 08:41:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Up	BUY	0	70¢	$0	0x42e4ac…
05-29 08:37:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Down	BUY	14	61¢	$8	0x80c618…
05-29 08:34:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Up	BUY	62	16¢	$10	0x7a169e…
05-29 08:21:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4AM ET	Down	SELL	24	6¢	$1	0x2310a8…
05-29 08:21:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4AM ET	Up	SELL	14	94¢	$13	0xadc55c…
05-29 08:21:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Up	SELL	14	92¢	$13	0x144ef4…
05-29 08:20:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Up	BUY	14	70¢	$10	0xbd7796…
05-29 08:17:20	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on May 29?	No	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0x9bb309…
05-29 08:16:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Down	BUY	14	70¢	$10	0xc65493…
05-29 08:12:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	14	57¢	$8	0x46fd42…
05-29 08:07:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Down	BUY	6	70¢	$4	0x491a26…
05-29 08:07:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Down	BUY	8	70¢	$6	0x8271ab…
05-29 08:06:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4AM ET	Up	BUY	14	70¢	$10	0x5fe7b6…
05-29 08:02:26	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on May 29?	No	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x9e0128…
05-29 08:00:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4AM ET	Down	BUY	24	41¢	$10	0xfb6150…
05-29 08:00:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Down	BUY	24	41¢	$10	0x458452…
05-29 07:58:53	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on May 29?	No	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0x46562e…
05-29 07:58:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3AM ET	Down	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0xa82f62…
05-29 07:58:23	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 29?	No	SELL	5	50¢	$2	0xedd83f…
05-29 07:58:23	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 29?	No	SELL	1	50¢	$0	0x938248…
05-29 07:30:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3AM ET	Down	BUY	14	70¢	$10	0x1406eb…
05-29 07:04:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2AM ET	Up	SELL	41	99¢	$40	0x9b15d3…
05-29 07:01:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3AM ET	Up	BUY	24	42¢	$10	0x331c09…
05-29 06:58:04	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on May 29?	No	BUY	6	88¢	$5	0x3cb4a2…
05-29 06:56:15	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on May 29?	No	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x17b010…
05-29 06:45:05	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on May 29?	No	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0xc67168…
05-29 06:26:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	Up	BUY	83	12¢	$10	0x45205b…
05-29 06:25:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	Down	BUY	14	68¢	$10	0xc691cd…
05-29 06:22:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	Up	BUY	14	70¢	$10	0x5051bf…
05-29 06:20:33	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 29?	No	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0xfa957f…
05-29 06:19:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2AM ET	Up	BUY	14	70¢	$10	0x549eef…
05-29 06:15:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	Up	BUY	14	70¢	$10	0x57d2ee…
05-29 06:10:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	Up	BUY	24	32¢	$8	0x016263…
05-29 06:05:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2AM ET	Up	BUY	26	38¢	$10	0xa2fd47…