Broken-Progenitor — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$16.3K

Unrealized P&L

-$199

Hit rate

82.7%

Resolved

186

Trades

2,566

lifetime

Volume

$472.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$184

Open exposure

$1.45K

3 positions

First seen

2026-04-27

last 07-25 10:05

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 70 days

Categories

Other

79% 47% -$10,011

Politics

14% 30% +$252

Sports

5% 29% -$8,269

Tech

2% 50% +$1,173

Pop-Culture

0% 50% +$522

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-07-25).

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	-1,124	-$600	98¢	$-1106	-$505	05-13 14:09
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	-356	-$327	96¢	$-340	-$12	07-25 09:26
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	+0	-$319	29¢	$0	+$319	07-19 18:27

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	96	$74.7K	43,502	43,502	+0	No	+$973	07-25 08:44
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	154	$46.2K	35,351	38,055	-2,704	No	+$1,163	06-22 10:00
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	46	$37.4K	24,289	24,289	+0	No	+$8,375	07-17 05:54
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	30	$27.7K	18,242	18,242	-0	No	+$800	07-25 09:51
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	46	$26.9K	28,247	28,247	+0	open	—	07-25 08:55
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	66	$24.0K	12,202	17,953	-5,752	No	+$2,935	06-11 17:38
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	28	$21.7K	12,210	12,210	+0	No	+$1,658	07-06 08:13
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in June?	88	$17.5K	20,410	0	+20,410	No	+$2,906	06-24 10:10
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	64	$10.0K	9,760	9,315	+444	Yes	+$141	06-22 06:17
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?	29	$10.0K	10,640	60	+10,580	No	-$9,911	05-06 16:00
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?	14	$9.4K	10,236	0	+10,236	Yes	-$9,387	05-16 15:34
Will "Drop Dead - Olivia Rodrigo" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?	23	$9.1K	10,667	0	+10,667	Yes	-$8,902	05-06 15:09
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	47	$8.3K	8,000	8,000	+0	open	—	07-19 18:27
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	19	$7.1K	6,541	6,541	+0	Yes	+$241	07-25 08:19
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	21	$6.0K	3,587	3,582	+5	No	+$776	05-28 12:43
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open?	19	$5.5K	6,231	1,735	+4,496	No	-$3,070	05-28 12:37
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	64	$5.4K	17,649	5,707	+11,942	No	-$48	06-09 08:30
Will Trump be photographed every day this week? (5/11-5/17)	70	$5.2K	6,304	546	+5,758	No	+$1,635	05-18 22:33
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?	22	$4.7K	3,501	3,501	+0	No	+$86	06-14 18:42
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?	27	$4.7K	4,768	1,312	+3,456	Yes	+$1,184	05-23 15:05
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in May?	17	$4.6K	5,124	0	+5,124	No	+$521	05-27 13:29
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June?	43	$4.5K	7,939	0	+7,939	No	+$3,481	07-14 04:38
Will "Man on Fire: Season 1" be the top US Netflix show this week?	8	$4.3K	4,843	0	+4,843	No	+$508	05-01 14:16
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	5	$3.8K	4,397	0	+4,397	No	+$596	05-26 04:29
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June?	33	$3.7K	2,632	2,387	+245	No	+$658	06-29 21:27
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	38	$3.7K	5,028	5,028	+0	Yes	+$403	07-25 09:16
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	34	$3.5K	4,178	2,700	+1,478	Yes	+$47	05-19 10:49
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	4	$3.1K	10,250	10,250	+0	No	+$2,127	07-25 08:19
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	58	$2.9K	7,086	0	+7,086	No	-$2,936	06-14 16:21
Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?	13	$2.8K	1,984	1,444	+540	No	+$383	05-23 15:06

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-25 10:05:03	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	1,217	2¢	$29	0x824744…
07-25 09:59:54	Will one person dissent the July Fed decision?	Yes	SELL	34	24¢	$8	0xfe9732…
07-25 09:59:12	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	54	23¢	$12	0x3e285d…
07-25 09:56:28	Will annual inflation be 3.2% in July?	Yes	SELL	130	6¢	$7	0x2bcff3…
07-25 09:56:25	Will annual inflation be 3.2% in July?	Yes	SELL	971	6¢	$53	0x450f34…
07-25 09:54:55	Will annual inflation be 3.1% or less in July?	Yes	SELL	1,150	2¢	$28	0xf1606c…
07-25 09:54:06	will warsh say dollar during july press conference 20260720204109050	No	SELL	6	71¢	$4	0xabd485…
07-25 09:53:15	Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season?	Yes	SELL	306	1¢	$2	0x93d7f1…
07-25 09:51:46	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	No	SELL	0	77¢	$0	0x2a96b9…
07-25 09:47:19	will warsh say good day during july press conference 20260720204109031	No	SELL	60	23¢	$14	0xb52c7a…
07-25 09:47:16	will warsh say good day during july press conference 20260720204109031	No	SELL	43	23¢	$10	0xdadeae…
07-25 09:47:15	will warsh say good day during july press conference 20260720204109031	No	SELL	40	23¢	$9	0xcedc47…
07-25 09:46:16	will warsh say projection during july press conference 20260720204109048	No	SELL	364	60¢	$218	0x968f1a…
07-25 09:43:57	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or more in July?	No	SELL	282	35¢	$99	0xe03d5e…
07-25 09:43:52	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or more in July?	No	SELL	256	35¢	$90	0xf47831…
07-25 09:42:15	Will monthly inflation stay flat (0.0%) in July?	No	SELL	721	75¢	$541	0xb53118…
07-25 09:41:21	Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?	Yes	SELL	482	32¢	$154	0xf0ba42…
07-25 09:30:40	Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	188	32¢	$60	0x06c78c…
07-25 09:30:04	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	390	33¢	$129	0x7031b8…
07-25 09:26:09	Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	156	92¢	$143	0xec63d2…
07-25 09:25:24	Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	200	92¢	$184	0x0f172b…
07-25 09:16:48	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	5,028	41¢	$2,057	0x63216b…
07-25 08:55:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	18,247	48¢	$8,759	0xc28640…
07-25 08:55:09	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	10,000	49¢	$4,900	0x7d4f0f…
07-25 08:48:22	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	No	SELL	18,242	78¢	$14,229	0xcab751…
07-25 08:44:16	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	20,231	87¢	$17,601	0xc5bb2c…
07-25 08:42:13	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	11	87¢	$10	0xfd159a…
07-25 08:42:03	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	12	87¢	$10	0x454ea3…
07-25 08:42:01	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	22,424	87¢	$19,509	0xc6e2c5…
07-25 08:19:58	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	10,250	25¢	$2,609	0xb7834c…
07-25 08:19:45	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	4,667	74¢	$3,448	0x99a06f…
07-25 04:11:34	Will annual inflation be 3.1% or less in July?	Yes	BUY	153	2¢	$3	0x0af38f…
07-25 04:11:19	Will annual inflation be 3.2% in July?	Yes	BUY	153	5¢	$8	0xe7bedd…
07-24 17:53:51	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or more in July?	No	BUY	22	33¢	$7	0x02f9ff…
07-24 17:52:37	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	800	49¢	$392	0xdb3104…
07-24 17:39:49	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or more in July?	No	BUY	15	33¢	$5	0x369df3…
07-24 15:16:19	Will annual inflation be 3.2% in July?	Yes	BUY	60	3¢	$2	0x5b718c…
07-24 15:16:09	Will annual inflation be 3.1% or less in July?	Yes	BUY	60	2¢	$1	0x39d861…
07-24 09:35:37	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	177	49¢	$87	0x7ae25d…
07-24 07:47:03	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	192	49¢	$94	0xf4ec46…
07-24 07:45:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	602	49¢	$295	0x8b4874…
07-24 07:44:01	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	198	49¢	$97	0x28496b…
07-24 07:43:31	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	604	49¢	$296	0xb0ccb0…
07-24 07:42:21	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	283	49¢	$139	0xc72acf…
07-23 20:54:21	will warsh say projection during july press conference 20260720204109048	No	BUY	350	59¢	$206	0x79074e…
07-23 18:04:13	Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?	Yes	BUY	13	36¢	$5	0x0f5b10…
07-23 18:03:39	Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?	Yes	BUY	116	37¢	$43	0xa678ff…
07-23 18:02:55	Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?	Yes	BUY	184	35¢	$65	0xb52a4a…
07-23 17:28:24	Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?	Yes	BUY	139	36¢	$50	0xc9dabc…
07-23 17:20:45	Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?	Yes	BUY	30	36¢	$11	0x4901e9…
07-23 16:21:21	will warsh say good day during july press conference 20260720204109031	No	BUY	11	24¢	$3	0xba4223…
07-23 16:01:13	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	388	51¢	$198	0xd83c1a…
07-23 15:58:42	will warsh say good day during july press conference 20260720204109031	No	BUY	35	24¢	$8	0x0655d0…
07-23 15:39:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x3de596…
07-23 15:38:54	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	79	51¢	$40	0x79964e…
07-23 15:22:10	will warsh say good day during july press conference 20260720204109031	No	BUY	35	24¢	$8	0x00f18a…
07-23 15:14:01	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	310	51¢	$158	0xeb6085…
07-23 14:37:40	will warsh say good day during july press conference 20260720204109031	No	BUY	35	24¢	$8	0x9d9e56…
07-23 14:29:21	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	950	87¢	$826	0x23a4ee…
07-23 14:18:06	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	0	86¢	$0	0x7a9633…
07-23 14:12:34	will warsh say good day during july press conference 20260720204109031	No	BUY	27	24¢	$6	0x40cf88…
07-23 14:11:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	47	51¢	$24	0x034ba3…
07-23 14:08:58	will warsh say projection during july press conference 20260720204109048	No	BUY	4	56¢	$2	0xe19ce2…
07-23 14:08:22	will warsh say projection during july press conference 20260720204109048	No	BUY	4	56¢	$2	0x09d826…
07-23 14:08:13	will warsh say projection during july press conference 20260720204109048	No	BUY	4	56¢	$2	0x3cfabb…
07-23 14:07:10	will warsh say projection during july press conference 20260720204109048	No	BUY	4	56¢	$2	0xbd3e65…
07-23 14:01:09	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	1,667	51¢	$850	0xcf4937…
07-23 13:57:39	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	0	86¢	$0	0xdaf0d7…
07-23 13:32:22	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	71	86¢	$61	0x1cb67e…
07-23 12:52:43	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	132	86¢	$113	0x1f174e…
07-23 12:22:54	Will Warsh say "Dollar" during July Press Conference?	No	BUY	3	60¢	$2	0x343a84…
07-23 12:22:33	Will Warsh say "Dollar" during July Press Conference?	No	BUY	3	60¢	$2	0xda17f6…
07-23 10:44:18	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0xb66dd5…
07-23 10:04:00	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	5	86¢	$4	0x36c99b…
07-23 09:56:31	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0xf73bb1…
07-23 08:15:39	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	10	86¢	$9	0xea74e2…
07-23 07:29:46	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0x4d4b66…
07-23 07:23:54	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	200	86¢	$172	0x059ece…
07-23 06:58:52	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	40	86¢	$34	0x6f2c21…
07-23 06:49:25	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	7	86¢	$6	0xc73701…
07-23 06:39:07	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or more in July?	No	BUY	284	27¢	$77	0xd092c6…
07-23 05:59:21	Will annual inflation be 3.2% in July?	Yes	BUY	70	2¢	$2	0x53d4fb…
07-23 05:59:13	Will annual inflation be 3.1% or less in July?	Yes	BUY	70	2¢	$1	0x5df7b0…
07-23 05:48:10	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	71	86¢	$61	0x69faa0…
07-23 05:43:31	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	3	50¢	$2	0x919baf…
07-23 05:40:37	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	107	86¢	$92	0x83d4ba…
07-23 05:18:18	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	329	50¢	$164	0xe684f2…
07-23 05:00:39	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	36	86¢	$31	0x18b155…
07-23 04:15:31	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	7	86¢	$6	0xc6a69f…
07-23 04:01:42	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	10	86¢	$9	0x112b87…
07-23 03:04:45	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	169	86¢	$146	0x40d7fa…
07-23 02:46:58	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	5	86¢	$5	0x844e51…
07-23 00:35:58	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	36	86¢	$31	0x8cbe5a…
07-23 00:29:58	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0xff8d63…
07-22 23:38:51	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	21	86¢	$18	0x206c74…
07-22 22:47:48	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0xaa2052…
07-22 22:45:39	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	7	86¢	$6	0x67d1a6…
07-22 22:33:45	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0x4c70fe…
07-22 19:32:40	Will annual inflation be 3.2% in July?	Yes	BUY	72	3¢	$2	0xb7ce67…
07-22 19:32:30	Will annual inflation be 3.1% or less in July?	Yes	BUY	72	2¢	$1	0xf7fb45…