Simplistic-Flu — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$23

Unrealized P&L

-$93

Hit rate

97.0%

Resolved

Trades

485

lifetime

Volume

$12.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$26

Open exposure

$104

2 positions

First seen

2026-02-20

last 06-16 17:24

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

70% 100% +$2

Other

29% 100% +$24

Crypto

1% — —

Sports

0% 0% $-4

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

48 active days in 12wk • peak 21 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No		-125	$-115	82¢	$-103	+$12	06-10 21:50
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No		+173	$105	0¢	$0	$-105	06-11 18:48

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	10	$596	566	417	+149	open	—	04-13 06:11
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	2	$502	267	267	+0	open	—	05-21 17:40
fifwc nld jpn 2026 06 14 btts	2	$361	377	309	+68	open	—	06-14 14:51
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	5	$358	258	258	+0	open	—	04-23 17:31
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	4	$289	192	192	+0	open	—	05-30 11:23
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	5	$267	251	172	+79	open	—	05-30 11:24
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	8	$265	194	194	+0	open	—	03-31 16:54
pakistan x afghanistan ceasefire by march 31	7	$247	223	223	+0	open	—	03-17 07:50
Will Jared Kushner attend Trump’s Xi summit?	2	$232	123	123	+0	open	—	05-15 09:25
fifwc fra sen 2026 06 16 btts	3	$224	196	196	+0	open	—	06-16 21:08
trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 31st	4	$219	127	127	+0	open	—	03-28 10:21
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	5	$201	120	120	+0	open	—	04-23 17:32
us x iran ceasefire by march 15	6	$194	154	154	+0	open	—	03-11 07:25
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?	3	$192	118	118	+0	open	—	05-16 11:19
fifwc bel egy 2026 06 15 team total home 1pt5	4	$186	184	159	+25	open	—	06-15 20:02
will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 6 419 412 158 246 866 876 465	8	$175	279	279	+0	open	—	03-03 21:28
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?	3	$172	105	105	+0	open	—	04-16 06:29
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	4	$171	143	143	+0	open	—	05-04 06:35
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	2	$170	104	104	+0	open	—	05-13 16:55
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?	3	$167	108	108	+0	open	—	04-23 17:29
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	4	$163	155	77	+77	open	—	04-03 17:56
will the us not strike iran by february 28 2026	2	$160	198	0	+198	open	—	02-27 13:15
fifwc bra mar 2026 06 13 btts	2	$156	106	106	+0	open	—	06-14 00:18
iranhezbollah strike on cyprus by march 7	4	$154	90	90	+0	open	—	03-07 16:27
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	4	$154	136	136	+0	open	—	04-08 09:15
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	3	$149	118	118	+0	open	—	05-06 14:58
fifwc qat che 2026 06 13 spread away 1pt5	2	$143	164	82	+82	open	—	06-13 20:34
us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by march 31	4	$132	86	86	+0	open	—	03-23 18:25
will uae strike iran by march 31	4	$132	83	83	+0	open	—	03-29 10:26
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?	2	$131	95	95	+0	open	—	05-21 17:44

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-16 21:28:40	fifwc arg alg 2026 06 16 btts	No	BUY	18	57¢	$10	0x5fb85d…
06-16 21:08:44	fifwc fra sen 2026 06 16 btts	Yes	SELL	53	100¢	$53	0xb305cc…
06-16 20:37:37	fifwc fra sen 2026 06 16 team total home 1pt5	Over	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0x70761e…
06-16 17:24:29	fifwc fra sen 2026 06 16 btts	Yes	SELL	143	50¢	$72	0x7b0f39…
06-16 17:23:29	fifwc fra sen 2026 06 16 btts	Yes	BUY	196	51¢	$100	0xab29f9…
06-16 06:19:36	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	100	3¢	$3	0xa7ffb5…
06-15 20:02:01	fifwc bel egy 2026 06 15 team total home 1pt5	Over	BUY	8	37¢	$3	0xf90a3c…
06-15 19:38:21	fifwc bel egy 2026 06 15 team total home 1pt5	Over	SELL	32	43¢	$14	0xa53a38…
06-15 15:25:19	fifwc bel egy 2026 06 15 team total home 1pt5	Over	SELL	126	55¢	$69	0x596f6d…
06-15 15:24:45	fifwc bel egy 2026 06 15 team total home 1pt5	Over	BUY	175	57¢	$100	0xde3c98…
06-15 15:20:16	fifwc esp cvi 2026 06 15 first half total 1pt5	Over	BUY	16	58¢	$9	0xe8ae68…
06-14 19:26:04	Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?	No	SELL	57	92¢	$52	0xbd8a2b…
06-14 14:56:18	fifwc ger kor 2026 06 14 first half total 1pt5	Over	BUY	25	63¢	$16	0x635bbf…
06-14 14:51:12	fifwc nld jpn 2026 06 14 btts	Yes	SELL	309	52¢	$161	0xdcab85…
06-14 14:50:39	fifwc nld jpn 2026 06 14 btts	Yes	BUY	377	53¢	$200	0xbcf4d0…
06-14 00:18:57	fifwc bra mar 2026 06 13 btts	Yes	SELL	106	100¢	$106	0xf49897…
06-13 21:32:18	fifwc bra mar 2026 06 13 team total home 1pt5	Over	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x4fdb1f…
06-13 21:31:55	fifwc bra mar 2026 06 13 spread home 1pt5	Brazil	SELL	31	31¢	$10	0x995fbe…
06-13 21:31:10	fifwc bra mar 2026 06 13 spread home 1pt5	Brazil	BUY	31	32¢	$10	0x6fb455…
06-13 20:34:16	fifwc qat che 2026 06 13 spread away 1pt5	Switzerland	SELL	82	53¢	$43	0x56764c…
06-13 09:57:09	fifwc bra mar 2026 06 13 btts	Yes	BUY	106	47¢	$50	0x456a01…
06-13 09:13:18	fifwc qat che 2026 06 13 spread away 1pt5	Switzerland	BUY	164	61¢	$100	0xe9f9af…
06-11 18:48:39	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	35	71¢	$25	0xfba58a…
06-10 21:50:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	125	92¢	$115	0xb309fb…
06-06 10:48:58	trump declassifies new ufo files by june 15	No	BUY	59	68¢	$40	0x3b2820…
05-31 21:36:17	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 7, 2026?	No	SELL	79	76¢	$60	0xe8e17c…
05-31 09:27:26	Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?	No	BUY	57	53¢	$30	0x952f87…
05-30 11:24:14	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	79	81¢	$64	0x012bc7…
05-30 11:23:33	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	123	95¢	$117	0x5b7125…
05-29 10:06:43	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 7, 2026?	No	BUY	25	60¢	$15	0x19b965…
05-28 18:50:14	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 7, 2026?	No	BUY	54	64¢	$35	0xa2dd9a…
05-28 18:49:18	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	138	58¢	$80	0xfa29f4…
05-28 18:45:17	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	SELL	96	54¢	$52	0x59d597…
05-28 18:39:04	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	214	31¢	$67	0x2d12b8…
05-23 20:00:47	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	29	51¢	$15	0x123941…
05-21 17:44:17	Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?	No	SELL	95	64¢	$61	0xe1849c…
05-21 17:40:21	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	SELL	267	98¢	$262	0xddd975…
05-20 16:01:01	Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China?	No	SELL	50	90¢	$45	0x155e10…
05-17 17:32:01	Will Trump be photographed every day this week? (5/11-5/17)	Yes	SELL	44	70¢	$31	0x3bc875…
05-17 17:04:07	Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China?	No	BUY	50	80¢	$40	0x076244…
05-16 11:43:10	Will Trump be photographed every day this week? (5/11-5/17)	Yes	BUY	39	28¢	$11	0xc842bb…
05-16 11:42:46	Will Trump be photographed every day this week? (5/11-5/17)	Yes	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x1d42d8…
05-16 11:32:42	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	BUY	267	90¢	$240	0x8fbb2b…
05-16 11:25:42	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	123	65¢	$80	0xb4ed21…
05-16 11:19:19	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?	No	SELL	118	91¢	$107	0xebfb80…
05-15 09:25:00	Will Jared Kushner attend Trump’s Xi summit?	No	SELL	123	99¢	$122	0xfc268f…
05-13 17:21:05	Will Jared Kushner attend Trump’s Xi summit?	No	BUY	123	90¢	$110	0xb55863…
05-13 17:01:39	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	128	78¢	$100	0xb37c00…
05-13 16:55:46	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	SELL	104	87¢	$90	0x8998a9…
05-12 06:18:06	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	68	61¢	$42	0x365c83…
05-08 19:45:22	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	66	75¢	$49	0x129dca…
05-08 19:40:44	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?	No	BUY	52	67¢	$35	0x5f1b49…
05-06 15:11:51	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?	No	BUY	66	76¢	$50	0xc96ff9…
05-06 15:11:39	Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?	No	BUY	95	74¢	$70	0x2697d2…
05-06 15:11:04	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	BUY	104	77¢	$80	0x7e6202…
05-06 15:07:20	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	66	76¢	$50	0x27eb2b…
05-06 15:05:47	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	68	73¢	$50	0xd97a08…
05-06 14:59:20	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	93	52¢	$48	0x7fe657…
05-06 14:59:19	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	No	SELL	81	64¢	$52	0x805d7e…
05-06 14:58:03	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	59	73¢	$43	0x162e19…
05-04 06:35:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	85	78¢	$67	0x9e55c2…
05-01 18:15:42	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	81	74¢	$60	0x4203f1…
05-01 18:10:24	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	59	79¢	$46	0xfc0d36…
04-29 16:21:12	israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	No	BUY	333	0¢	$1	0xde59ae…
04-28 06:31:48	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?	No	SELL	50	27¢	$13	0x578953…
04-27 09:01:30	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	85	59¢	$50	0xba67c7…
04-27 08:57:02	Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	Yes	BUY	51	59¢	$30	0x3d74a4…
04-27 08:55:00	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?	No	BUY	51	39¢	$20	0xdb1337…
04-26 19:34:30	israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	No	BUY	40	75¢	$30	0xa90397…
04-26 04:22:24	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on April 27?	Yes	SELL	0	5¢	$0	0xba3863…
04-26 04:22:24	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on April 27?	Yes	SELL	16	7¢	$1	0xab4cdf…
04-26 04:16:30	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on April 27?	Yes	SELL	46	5¢	$2	0xa847dc…
04-26 04:16:30	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on April 27?	Yes	SELL	50	7¢	$3	0x66d975…
04-25 17:21:56	Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	No	SELL	67	91¢	$61	0x82a1e0…
04-25 16:01:32	Will Israel strike 3 countries in April 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	7¢	$1	0x934585…
04-25 15:54:26	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	93	43¢	$40	0xf25302…
04-25 15:31:00	Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-25?	Yes	SELL	28	100¢	$28	0x123812…
04-25 15:28:02	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?	No	SELL	50	73¢	$36	0x2f094e…
04-25 15:27:44	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?	No	SELL	68	89¢	$61	0x67a775…
04-25 15:27:16	Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	No	SELL	58	71¢	$42	0xae7b13…
04-25 15:26:00	Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	64	6¢	$4	0x60bb0e…
04-25 15:12:08	Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-25?	Yes	BUY	29	35¢	$10	0xd0be6e…
04-25 14:32:58	Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x1a2506…
04-25 14:01:12	Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	53	19¢	$10	0x6f27d4…
04-25 11:13:18	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on April 27?	Yes	BUY	70	3¢	$2	0xd1b53e…
04-25 11:13:08	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on April 27?	Yes	BUY	48	2¢	$1	0xe884e9…
04-25 11:13:02	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on April 27?	Yes	BUY	112	1¢	$1	0x7c1b65…
04-25 10:56:44	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?	No	BUY	50	40¢	$20	0xc8c73b…
04-25 10:51:54	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?	No	BUY	68	44¢	$30	0x3d4c34…
04-25 10:47:06	Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	58	34¢	$20	0x38d775…
04-25 10:41:38	Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	Yes	SELL	33	66¢	$22	0x1af08e…
04-25 10:41:34	Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	Yes	SELL	33	66¢	$22	0x759205…
04-25 08:14:30	israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	No	SELL	58	60¢	$35	0xbd7405…
04-25 08:08:42	Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	BUY	6	36¢	$2	0x8ca095…
04-24 23:11:38	Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	33	61¢	$20	0x840e09…
04-24 23:11:30	Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	33	60¢	$20	0xec9ab7…
04-23 17:44:44	israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	No	BUY	58	43¢	$25	0x7679e6…
04-23 17:34:04	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	No	SELL	41	90¢	$37	0x222924…
04-23 17:33:34	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	No	SELL	39	90¢	$35	0x900170…
04-23 17:32:24	US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	No	SELL	40	92¢	$37	0x268860…