Burly-Volatility — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$665

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

4.3%

Resolved

Trades

638

lifetime

Volume

$131.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$207

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-04

last 05-06 02:08

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

89% — —

Other

7% 0% $-619

Crypto

4% 58% $-45

Sports

0% 0% $-1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

27 active days in 12wk • peak 191 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	11	$24.7K	22,686	22,686	+0	open	—	04-07 23:30
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?	12	$19.8K	17,544	17,544	+0	open	—	04-04 05:52
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	14	$17.2K	12,332	12,332	+0	open	—	04-03 19:26
US x Iran ceasefire by May 15?	2	$13.0K	21,739	0	+21,739	open	—	04-07 06:58
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	11	$12.6K	14,914	14,914	+0	open	—	04-07 23:30
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	4	$10.3K	7,243	7,243	+0	open	—	04-04 21:00
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	6	$5.7K	10,032	10,032	+0	open	—	03-28 02:25
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	5	$4.7K	3,054	3,054	+0	open	—	03-19 02:55
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?	6	$4.6K	3,955	3,955	+0	open	—	04-04 03:31
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	2	$3.9K	2,931	2,931	+0	open	—	03-29 09:09
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?	3	$3.4K	4,807	4,807	+0	No	$-619	03-30 17:54
US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026?	8	$2.3K	2,112	2,112	+0	open	—	03-31 01:05
will crude oil cl hit high 105 by end of march 881	2	$1.2K	1,015	1,015	+0	open	—	03-12 06:30
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	4	$1.2K	854	854	+0	open	—	03-26 20:46
will crude oil cl hit high 150 by end of march 138 937 747	4	$1.2K	4,375	4,374	+0	open	—	03-15 02:47
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	2	$1.0K	746	746	+0	open	—	03-25 08:35
btc updown 5m 1775818800	4	$210	127	125	+2	open	—	04-10 11:03
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	3	$177	160	160	+0	open	—	04-10 00:11
btc updown 5m 1775818200	6	$164	134	88	+46	open	—	04-10 10:52
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	2	$162	527	527	+0	open	—	03-14 21:37
btc updown 15m 1776500100	2	$148	119	114	+5	open	—	04-18 08:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	2	$146	104	104	+0	open	—	05-04 03:11
btc updown 5m 1775817600	2	$115	91	88	+3	open	—	04-10 10:41
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET	2	$112	88	88	+0	open	—	05-01 23:13
btc updown 15m 1776501000	2	$108	100	96	+4	open	—	04-18 08:34
btc updown 5m 1773305700	1	$100	143	0	+143	open	—	03-12 08:58
btc updown 5m 1775816100	4	$88	91	88	+4	open	—	04-10 10:19
btc updown 5m 1775817900	3	$85	191	182	+9	open	—	04-10 10:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET	2	$74	58	58	+0	open	—	05-04 08:05
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET	2	$71	56	56	+0	open	—	05-04 07:50

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-06 02:08:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET	Up	SELL	12	5¢	$1	0x682867…
05-06 02:00:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET	Up	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0x6462f4…
05-06 01:38:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET	Up	SELL	8	73¢	$6	0xbb2593…
05-06 01:32:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET	Up	BUY	8	48¢	$4	0x70d690…
05-06 01:31:02	Lakers vs. Thunder	Lakers	SELL	36	10¢	$4	0x2c2d75…
05-06 01:17:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET	Down	BUY	40	25¢	$10	0x3aff71…
05-06 01:00:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET	Down	BUY	22	45¢	$10	0xed4615…
05-06 00:49:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Down	SELL	20	73¢	$15	0x5b34a8…
05-06 00:47:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0xe91df3…
05-06 00:44:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET	Down	SELL	20	47¢	$9	0x77dcb0…
05-06 00:30:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET	Down	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x32f6d8…
05-06 00:28:52	Lakers vs. Thunder	Lakers	BUY	36	14¢	$5	0x4528da…
05-06 00:19:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET	Down	SELL	10	59¢	$6	0xeea899…
05-06 00:17:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xa19b51…
05-05 23:55:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET	Up	SELL	12	44¢	$5	0xccf946…
05-05 23:53:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	12	42¢	$5	0x7657d6…
05-05 22:47:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET	Down	SELL	11	54¢	$6	0x1e14bd…
05-05 22:45:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET	Down	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0x75d012…
05-05 22:35:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Down	SELL	12	41¢	$5	0xa50ed2…
05-05 22:35:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Down	BUY	12	42¢	$5	0xc3b3eb…
05-05 22:33:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET	Down	SELL	5	95¢	$5	0xb156d9…
05-05 22:33:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x0e641a…
05-05 22:24:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET	Up	SELL	13	44¢	$6	0x0678f2…
05-05 22:22:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	13	39¢	$5	0x84fdac…
05-05 22:10:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET	Down	SELL	16	48¢	$8	0x449743…
05-05 22:09:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET	Down	BUY	16	31¢	$5	0x577a8c…
05-05 22:01:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET	Down	SELL	17	36¢	$6	0xf12b80…
05-05 22:01:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET	Down	BUY	17	29¢	$5	0xf4553b…
05-05 20:56:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET	Up	SELL	15	45¢	$7	0x4f37b0…
05-05 20:46:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0x697a30…
05-05 11:34:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET	Up	SELL	18	65¢	$12	0x246d59…
05-05 11:31:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET	Up	BUY	18	56¢	$10	0xb0c954…
05-05 11:15:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET	Up	BUY	45	38¢	$17	0xdf6abb…
05-05 11:13:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET	Down	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0xef2588…
05-05 11:12:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET	Up	SELL	3	72¢	$2	0x749be5…
05-05 11:10:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET	Up	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0xb0e533…
05-05 09:49:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET	Down	SELL	11	54¢	$6	0x1d4206…
05-05 09:46:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0x86cdc8…
05-05 05:13:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET	Up	BUY	29	70¢	$20	0x557e7a…
05-04 09:06:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET	Down	SELL	87	43¢	$37	0xa98d7a…
05-04 09:04:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET	Down	BUY	87	23¢	$20	0x0219d6…
05-04 08:57:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET	Up	SELL	33	76¢	$25	0x8560c6…
05-04 08:55:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET	Up	BUY	33	45¢	$15	0x4d7813…
05-04 08:51:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET	Down	SELL	20	79¢	$15	0x7055ec…
05-04 08:45:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET	Down	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0xb41545…
05-04 08:44:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	Down	SELL	16	87¢	$14	0x19206c…
05-04 08:32:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	Down	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0xa66147…
05-04 08:30:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	Down	BUY	6	51¢	$3	0xd657cc…
05-04 08:23:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0xc2e3e3…
05-04 08:22:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	Up	SELL	84	8¢	$7	0xe5c5e5…
05-04 08:18:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	Up	BUY	26	38¢	$10	0x5d78f9…
05-04 08:15:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	Up	BUY	58	52¢	$30	0xedfe55…
05-04 08:05:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET	Down	SELL	58	77¢	$44	0x395328…
05-04 08:00:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET	Down	BUY	58	52¢	$30	0xde1dbd…
05-04 07:50:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET	Down	SELL	56	74¢	$41	0xc7abf0…
05-04 07:46:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	56	54¢	$30	0x4539a9…
05-04 04:00:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET	Up	BUY	71	56¢	$40	0xcdaf97…
05-04 03:11:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	Up	SELL	104	92¢	$96	0x242ea0…
05-04 03:00:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	Up	BUY	104	48¢	$50	0x985e44…
05-04 02:59:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET	Down	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x30eeb3…
05-03 09:19:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET	Down	SELL	49	46¢	$22	0x513144…
05-03 09:15:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET	Down	BUY	49	51¢	$25	0x3e8494…
05-03 08:51:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET	Up	BUY	13	39¢	$5	0xded18c…
05-03 08:50:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET	Up	SELL	10	62¢	$6	0x9fb168…
05-03 08:49:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x55877b…
05-03 08:35:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	Down	SELL	11	80¢	$9	0x5821f9…
05-03 08:31:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	Down	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0x240a07…
05-03 08:28:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	Up	SELL	2	2¢	$0	0x8eec81…
05-03 08:26:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	Up	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x3a613f…
05-03 08:21:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	Down	SELL	3	42¢	$1	0xdea1cc…
05-03 08:20:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	Down	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x76894a…
05-03 08:20:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	Down	SELL	3	52¢	$2	0x960546…
05-03 08:19:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	Down	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x591984…
05-02 03:14:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xf46761…
05-02 03:06:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Up	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0xcbc18e…
05-02 03:04:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Up	SELL	4	77¢	$3	0x5871b6…
05-02 03:04:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Up	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x8eb293…
05-02 03:00:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET	Up	BUY	30	15¢	$4	0xdf6330…
05-02 02:58:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET	Up	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x517d08…
05-02 02:57:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET	Up	BUY	12	85¢	$10	0x68cc99…
05-02 01:20:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET	Down	SELL	6	86¢	$5	0x1fda20…
05-02 01:19:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET	Down	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0x6c3dd0…
05-02 01:14:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET	Down	BUY	29	17¢	$5	0xdaad47…
05-02 01:08:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET	Up	SELL	14	59¢	$8	0xd2b5ea…
05-02 01:01:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET	Up	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0xefc06b…
05-02 00:59:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	17	30¢	$5	0x5051f4…
05-02 00:56:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Up	SELL	7	79¢	$6	0xefc525…
05-02 00:55:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Up	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0x7ff81b…
05-02 00:41:20	Pistons vs. Magic	Pistons	SELL	115	30¢	$35	0x48fc68…
05-01 23:52:38	Pistons vs. Magic	Pistons	BUY	115	26¢	$30	0x25068a…
05-01 23:33:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET	Down	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0xaa98fb…
05-01 23:13:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET	Down	SELL	88	70¢	$62	0x6717c4…
05-01 23:00:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET	Down	BUY	88	57¢	$50	0xf5d582…
04-18 09:17:28	btc updown 15m 1776503700	Down	BUY	102	69¢	$71	0x47affe…
04-18 08:58:30	btc updown 15m 1776501900	Down	SELL	182	0¢	$1	0x2f2aa5…
04-18 08:46:28	btc updown 15m 1776501900	Down	BUY	192	26¢	$50	0x8ea5d0…
04-18 08:34:46	btc updown 15m 1776501000	Down	SELL	96	71¢	$68	0x4a285f…
04-18 08:30:20	btc updown 15m 1776501000	Down	BUY	100	40¢	$40	0x8d7e43…
04-18 08:18:38	btc updown 15m 1776500100	Down	SELL	114	83¢	$95	0xb9f629…
04-18 08:15:18	btc updown 15m 1776500100	Down	BUY	119	45¢	$54	0xb91548…