Grounded-Present — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$43

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

73.0%

Resolved

369

Trades

610

lifetime

Volume

$1.50K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-20

last 10-27 08:19

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 44 days

Categories

Crypto

90% 64% +$11

Other

10% 78% +$32

Sports

0% 100% +$1

Politics

0% 0% -$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

8 active days in 12wk • peak 6 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	1	$24	56	0	+56	Yes	+$32	06-19 03:27
DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-28 04:45 UTC	5	$22	17	17	+0	Up	+$2	06-28 04:47
DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-28 04:35 UTC	7	$22	17	17	+0	Down	+$2	06-28 04:39
DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-28 06:55 UTC	4	$21	15	15	+0	Down	+$1	06-28 06:59
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-24 07:15 UTC	5	$20	27	16	+11	Down	$0	04-24 07:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	6	$19	14	14	+0	Up	+$5	05-14 08:54
DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-28 07:00 UTC	5	$17	12	12	+0	Up	+$1	06-28 07:02
DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-28 05:00 UTC	4	$16	18	10	+8	Down	-$3	06-28 05:01
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	2	$15	10	10	+0	Up	+$5	05-12 02:24
DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-28 05:10 UTC	2	$15	10	10	+0	Down	+$5	06-28 05:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	2	$14	9	9	+0	Up	+$4	05-12 07:13
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-24 17:40 UTC	4	$14	10	10	+0	Up	+$1	04-24 17:44
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on July 25?	2	$14	7	7	+0	Yes	+$1	07-25 16:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	7	$13	10	10	+0	Up	+$1	05-14 08:39
Will London have less than 30mm of precipitation in July?	2	$13	7	7	+0	Yes	+$0	07-25 05:58
DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-28 04:00 UTC	4	$13	17	9	+8	Down	-$1	06-28 04:01
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	2	$13	8	8	+0	Down	+$3	05-17 01:24
DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-28 05:05 UTC	2	$13	8	8	+0	Up	+$3	06-28 05:09
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-24 17:35 UTC	5	$13	8	8	+0	Up	+$0	04-24 17:39
DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-28 03:55 UTC	2	$12	10	10	+0	Up	+$2	06-28 03:58
DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-28 04:10 UTC	2	$12	10	10	+0	Down	+$2	06-28 04:11
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	1	$12	25	0	+25	Yes	+$13	06-17 02:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	2	$12	7	7	+0	Up	+$2	05-12 02:15
DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-28 04:50 UTC	3	$11	10	10	+0	Down	+$1	06-28 04:50
DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-28 04:05 UTC	2	$11	10	10	+0	Down	+$1	06-28 04:08
DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-28 04:20 UTC	4	$11	9	9	+0	Up	+$1	06-28 04:21
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-21 05:50 UTC	1	$11	17	0	+17	Up	+$6	04-21 05:53
DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-28 04:15 UTC	3	$11	10	9	+0	Down	+$1	06-28 04:16
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	1	$11	12	0	+12	Yes	+$2	06-11 20:01
DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-28 04:25 UTC	3	$11	9	9	+0	Down	+$1	06-28 04:26

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 08:19:03	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	4	64¢	$3	0x9f54b2…
10-22 04:31:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET	Up	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x7c28b2…
10-22 01:21:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Up	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0xf1438a…
10-22 01:20:21	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on October 22?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xde0065…
10-22 01:20:09	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on October 22?	Yes	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0xacd632…
10-22 00:55:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x852be2…
10-22 00:54:51	Golden State Valkyries vs. Atlanta Dream	Atlanta Dream	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x29e864…
10-10 19:26:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	4	55¢	$2	0x6828ab…
10-10 19:20:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Down	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x1338c0…
10-10 19:17:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Down	SELL	4	28¢	$1	0x3f7861…
10-10 19:16:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Down	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0xc5d9a1…
10-10 19:14:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Up	SELL	8	21¢	$2	0x30c8e3…
10-10 19:14:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Up	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x1237fd…
08-20 17:06:25	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on August 20?	Yes	BUY	3	82¢	$3	0x292788…
08-17 05:52:49	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 17?	Yes	BUY	3	89¢	$2	0x08613b…
08-14 14:36:06	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on August 14?	Yes	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0x1d02da…
08-13 14:29:07	Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on August 13?	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xa2fd83…
08-13 14:28:49	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 13?	Yes	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x9ffec3…
08-08 04:29:30	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-08 04:25 UTC	Up	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x847fba…
08-08 04:28:54	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-08 04:25 UTC	Up	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x040aa7…
08-08 04:26:54	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 36°C on August 8?	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xb582f1…
07-30 17:37:06	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on July 31?	No	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0x6c0e01…
07-29 05:26:56	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 29?	Yes	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0x35d14e…
07-29 05:26:11	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on July 28?	Yes	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x7ba3b9…
07-28 20:50:23	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on July 28?	Yes	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0xce9d0f…
07-27 14:16:03	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on July 27?	Yes	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0xc15d42…
07-27 14:15:28	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on July 27?	Yes	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xa2d4ff…
07-27 04:27:36	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on July 27?	Yes	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0xcce47e…
07-27 04:27:09	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1	80¢	$1	0x51db2e…
07-27 04:27:04	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	80¢	$1	0xfc1d05…
07-25 16:55:06	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on July 25?	Yes	BUY	11	64¢	$7	0xb3104e…
07-25 16:54:16	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on July 25?	Yes	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x8153af…
07-25 05:59:42	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on July 25?	Yes	BUY	7	89¢	$7	0x0e1b1e…
07-25 05:58:24	Will London have less than 30mm of precipitation in July?	Yes	SELL	7	93¢	$7	0x43862c…
07-24 03:52:25	Will London have less than 30mm of precipitation in July?	Yes	BUY	7	93¢	$7	0x3cd626…
07-19 20:42:22	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on July 19?	Yes	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xa53caf…
07-19 20:42:13	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on July 19?	Yes	BUY	2	91¢	$2	0x99ee63…
07-18 14:00:42	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 19?	Yes	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0x0b9989…
07-18 14:00:39	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 35°C on July 19?	Yes	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x25f8e8…
07-16 20:20:04	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on July 16?	Yes	BUY	2	89¢	$2	0x11e04c…
07-13 20:03:31	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-13 20:00 UTC	Down	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x97c5de…
07-13 20:03:14	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-13 20:00 UTC	Down	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0xedac54…
07-13 20:01:58	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-13 20:00 UTC	Down	BUY	2	81¢	$2	0x24809b…
07-13 19:56:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-13 19:55 UTC	Up	BUY	3	74¢	$2	0x0e3749…
07-13 19:52:37	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-13 19:50 UTC	Up	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0xccf620…
07-13 19:36:31	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-13 19:35 UTC	Down	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0xa9e61a…
07-13 18:06:41	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-13 18:05 UTC	Up	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0x38a6aa…
07-13 18:03:55	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-13 18:00 UTC	Up	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x4baa1d…
07-13 17:58:35	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-13 17:55 UTC	Down	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0x7666d3…
07-13 17:52:53	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-13 17:50 UTC	Down	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0xd86bcd…
07-13 17:52:32	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x5965a1…
07-13 17:52:05	iran military action against a gulf state on july 13 20260708212322938	Yes	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0xad5a56…
07-12 14:38:23	Will fewer than 150 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?	Yes	BUY	2	87¢	$2	0x2b3751…
07-12 14:36:41	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 11 to July 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0xe45262…
07-10 03:24:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Up	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x174cce…
07-10 03:20:56	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-10 03:20 UTC	Up	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0xd33a81…
07-10 03:20:26	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-10 03:20 UTC	Up	SELL	2	63¢	$1	0x7304f6…
07-10 03:19:53	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-10 03:20 UTC	Up	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0xbeafae…
07-10 03:17:49	Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?	Yes	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0xb8aebf…
07-10 03:17:26	tamas sulyok out as president of hungary by july 31 20260626200424352	Yes	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0x7348ef…
07-09 22:47:20	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-09 22:45 UTC	Down	SELL	5	59¢	$3	0xcdb19d…
07-09 22:45:53	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-09 22:45 UTC	Down	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x42505d…
07-09 22:44:49	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-09 22:45 UTC	Down	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x99dce3…
07-09 22:42:31	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-09 22:40 UTC	Up	SELL	2	82¢	$1	0x33c626…
07-09 22:40:50	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-09 22:40 UTC	Up	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0xc5b399…
07-09 22:39:59	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-09 22:35 UTC	Down	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x825621…
07-09 22:39:29	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-09 22:35 UTC	Down	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x740ff3…
07-09 22:39:11	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-09 22:35 UTC	Up	SELL	2	75¢	$1	0x1b37ab…
07-09 22:38:08	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-09 22:35 UTC	Up	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0xfba9c8…
07-09 22:34:23	Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0xa6bd0e…
07-07 21:55:34	Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0x2a3354…
07-07 15:34:17	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 6 to July 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x70c85b…
07-07 15:33:13	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0x1f736d…
07-07 06:05:38	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-07 06:05 UTC	Up	BUY	7	27¢	$2	0xc6dfa5…
07-07 05:59:26	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-07 06:00 UTC	Up	BUY	12	41¢	$5	0xb3d122…
07-07 05:58:11	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-07 05:55 UTC	Down	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x4b0359…
07-07 05:57:58	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-07 05:55 UTC	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xe36ce8…
07-07 04:09:37	will bitcoin reach 65k in july 2026	Yes	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x2edabd…
07-07 04:06:53	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on July 7?	Yes	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0xf4cf1b…
07-07 04:06:47	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 7?	Yes	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0x9b6410…
07-06 18:32:08	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 18:30 UTC	Up	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x1e36c4…
07-06 18:17:16	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 18:15 UTC	Up	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x585c28…
07-06 17:01:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 17:00 UTC	Up	BUY	3	61¢	$2	0xf43e18…
07-06 08:39:10	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 08:40 UTC	Up	BUY	4	55¢	$2	0x969176…
07-06 08:28:11	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 08:25 UTC	Down	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x452924…
07-06 08:21:58	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 08:20 UTC	Up	BUY	3	71¢	$2	0xfaf84a…
07-06 08:17:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 08:15 UTC	Down	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0x2b8c9e…
07-06 08:10:32	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 08:10 UTC	Down	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0xcbc6ba…
07-06 08:07:32	Will France win on 2026-07-09?	Yes	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x005e3a…
07-06 08:07:19	Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?	Yes	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0xb98726…
07-06 08:06:47	Will Spain win on 2026-07-06?	Yes	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xbbb655…
07-06 08:02:40	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 08:00 UTC	Up	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0xb814eb…
07-06 08:02:37	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 08:00 UTC	Up	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x2e2697…
07-06 07:54:47	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 07:50 UTC	Down	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0xfec3d9…
07-06 07:52:40	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 07:50 UTC	Down	BUY	2	88¢	$2	0x78d243…
07-06 07:49:53	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 07:45 UTC	Up	SELL	5	93¢	$4	0xa6cbaf…
07-06 07:49:17	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 07:45 UTC	Up	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x339f62…
07-06 07:48:31	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 07:45 UTC	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x6dcea3…
07-06 07:48:05	Will Belgium win on 2026-07-06?	Yes	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0xd12b55…
07-06 07:43:31	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 07:40 UTC	Up	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xb0972f…