Grounded-Accuracy — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$47

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

92.4%

Resolved

1,931

Trades

2,524

lifetime

Volume

$24.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$10

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-11

last 09-01 17:05

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 86 days

Categories

Other

88% 93% +$79

Crypto

11% 85% -$116

Politics

0% 29% -$10

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

28 active days in 12wk • peak 60 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
spx up or down on march 19 2026	3	$496	1,825	1,575	+250	Down	+$376	03-19 19:45
highest temperature in toronto on march 11 2026 7c	5	$93	99	0	+99	No	-$93	03-11 23:33
highest temperature in paris on march 16 2026 12c	8	$71	41	31	+10	Yes	+$1	03-16 16:43
highest temperature in paris on april 17 2026 23c	2	$54	28	28	+0	No	-$2	04-16 20:10
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on August 31?	2	$48	24	24	+0	Yes	+$0	08-31 19:56
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on August 31?	2	$48	24	24	+0	No	+$0	08-31 16:44
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on August 31?	2	$48	24	24	+0	No	+$0	08-31 15:31
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 31?	2	$48	24	24	+0	No	+$0	08-31 15:38
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on August 31?	2	$48	24	24	+0	Yes	+$0	08-31 12:27
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 27°C on August 31?	2	$48	24	24	+0	No	+$0	08-31 10:46
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on August 31?	2	$48	24	24	+0	No	+$0	08-31 10:43
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on August 31?	2	$48	24	24	+0	Yes	+$0	08-31 15:01
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on August 31?	2	$48	24	24	+0	No	+$0	08-31 22:07
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on August 30?	2	$48	24	24	+0	No	+$0	08-30 22:17
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on August 30?	2	$48	24	24	+0	Yes	+$0	08-31 00:04
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on August 31?	2	$48	24	24	+0	Yes	$0	08-31 15:47
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on August 30?	2	$48	24	24	+0	No	+$0	08-30 17:27
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on August 30?	2	$48	24	24	+0	No	+$0	08-30 16:43
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 27°C on August 30?	2	$48	24	24	+0	Yes	+$0	08-30 10:13
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on August 30?	2	$48	24	24	+0	Yes	+$0	08-30 16:00
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on August 29?	2	$47	24	24	+0	No	+$0	08-29 17:58
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 29?	2	$47	24	24	+0	Yes	+$0	08-29 11:44
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on August 29?	2	$47	24	24	+0	No	+$0	08-29 13:35
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on August 29?	2	$47	24	24	+0	Yes	+$0	08-29 15:01
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on August 29?	2	$47	24	24	+0	No	+$0	08-29 16:45
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on August 29?	2	$47	24	24	+0	Yes	+$0	08-29 16:12
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 30°C on August 29?	2	$47	24	24	+0	Yes	+$0	08-29 15:12
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on August 29?	2	$47	24	24	+0	Yes	+$0	08-29 18:50
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on August 28?	2	$47	24	24	+0	Yes	+$0	08-28 12:42
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on August 28?	2	$47	24	24	+0	Yes	+$0	08-28 10:41

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-01 17:05:45	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on September 1?	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0xcb9ac3…
09-01 16:22:57	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on September 1?	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0x744cba…
09-01 16:21:49	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on September 1?	Yes	SELL	19	100¢	$19	0xa9e686…
09-01 16:02:40	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on September 1?	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0xe8b86d…
09-01 16:01:34	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 30°C on September 1?	Yes	SELL	19	100¢	$19	0xbad00d…
09-01 15:32:10	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on September 1?	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0x476ed7…
09-01 15:09:43	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on September 1?	Yes	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0x8aeaa3…
09-01 15:08:33	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on September 1?	No	SELL	19	100¢	$19	0x6e4f47…
09-01 13:50:09	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 30°C on September 1?	Yes	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0x9bb88f…
09-01 10:30:19	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on September 1?	Yes	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0x23be30…
09-01 10:29:10	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 26°C on September 1?	No	SELL	19	100¢	$19	0xfb7df5…
09-01 10:07:16	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on September 1?	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0xb273ad…
09-01 10:06:06	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on September 1?	Yes	SELL	19	100¢	$19	0x9c66c7…
09-01 09:17:22	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 25°C on September 1?	Yes	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0xe519ab…
09-01 09:16:19	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on September 1?	No	SELL	19	100¢	$19	0xa3ab0c…
09-01 09:00:39	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 33°C on September 1?	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0xac793b…
09-01 09:00:37	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 26°C on September 1?	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0xec6e71…
09-01 09:00:37	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on September 1?	Yes	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0xb6fedb…
09-01 06:00:55	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on September 1?	Yes	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0xe9994b…
09-01 06:00:55	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on September 1?	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0x3588d9…
09-01 03:26:43	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on August 31?	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x47e2c8…
09-01 01:06:55	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on August 31?	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0x867b1e…
09-01 01:05:49	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on August 31?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x8aca06…
09-01 01:05:49	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on August 31?	Yes	SELL	19	100¢	$19	0x592e7b…
08-31 22:34:00	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on August 31?	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0x7fb0f1…
08-31 22:16:54	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C or below on August 31?	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xad30f5…
08-31 22:16:54	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on August 31?	Yes	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0x0553f4…
08-31 22:08:22	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on August 31?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$5	0xce9027…
08-31 22:08:21	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on August 31?	Yes	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0x1221f9…
08-31 22:07:18	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on August 31?	No	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0x4de45d…
08-31 19:58:00	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on August 31?	Yes	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x655b2c…
08-31 19:56:52	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on August 31?	Yes	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0x0f16ff…
08-31 16:46:03	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on August 31?	Yes	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x961472…
08-31 16:44:55	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on August 31?	No	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0x861b14…
08-31 15:48:21	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on August 31?	Yes	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x692c18…
08-31 15:47:06	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on August 31?	Yes	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0x457283…
08-31 15:41:09	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on August 31?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x1361d5…
08-31 15:38:48	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 31?	No	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0x83172b…
08-31 15:32:57	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on August 31?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0xb40344…
08-31 15:31:46	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on August 31?	No	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0x55f651…
08-31 15:24:42	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on August 31?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0xa864e1…
08-31 15:23:31	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on August 31?	Yes	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x270748…
08-31 15:02:18	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on August 31?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0xec9be7…
08-31 15:01:07	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on August 31?	Yes	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0x73b573…
08-31 12:28:12	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 25°C on August 31?	Yes	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0xc71fce…
08-31 12:27:03	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on August 31?	Yes	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0x6c4875…
08-31 10:47:09	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 26°C on August 31?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x0da53b…
08-31 10:46:00	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 27°C on August 31?	No	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0xe543a7…
08-31 10:44:51	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on August 31?	Yes	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x0c2d27…
08-31 10:43:42	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on August 31?	No	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0xcff05a…
08-31 10:41:24	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on August 31?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0xce7ee5…
08-31 10:41:23	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 31?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0xcca111…
08-31 10:41:23	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 27°C on August 31?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x7487bb…
08-31 10:41:23	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on August 31?	Yes	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x6667f0…
08-31 10:41:23	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 31?	Yes	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x4fd99f…
08-31 00:05:06	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on August 30?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0xfa1680…
08-31 00:04:01	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on August 30?	Yes	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0xe04bb8…
08-30 23:01:55	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on August 30?	Yes	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x5e6764…
08-30 22:18:33	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on August 30?	Yes	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0xa32fd0…
08-30 22:17:28	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on August 30?	No	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0x608a05…
08-30 22:05:48	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on August 30?	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x404aa6…
08-30 22:03:40	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on August 30?	No	SELL	22	100¢	$22	0xe2bd9c…
08-30 22:02:37	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on August 30?	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x224473…
08-30 22:01:33	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on August 30?	Yes	SELL	22	100¢	$22	0x71755c…
08-30 17:28:21	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on August 30?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x3ff3d6…
08-30 17:27:13	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on August 30?	No	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0x550772…
08-30 16:44:21	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on August 30?	Yes	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0xa48c7e…
08-30 16:43:12	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on August 30?	No	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0x2243a9…
08-30 16:38:42	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on August 30?	Yes	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x2a6640…
08-30 16:37:34	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 30?	Yes	SELL	22	100¢	$22	0xee09bd…
08-30 16:36:27	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on August 30?	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x047eb5…
08-30 16:36:25	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on August 30?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0xf1b28f…
08-30 16:25:09	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on August 30?	Yes	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x549f7c…
08-30 16:24:01	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C or below on August 30?	Yes	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0x0a0920…
08-30 16:01:24	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on August 30?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x2f072b…
08-30 16:00:13	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on August 30?	Yes	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0x32f209…
08-30 11:41:10	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C or below on August 30?	Yes	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x294b8a…
08-30 11:40:03	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 28°C on August 30?	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0xfe86d7…
08-30 11:37:45	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on August 30?	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x18799f…
08-30 11:36:37	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on August 30?	Yes	SELL	22	100¢	$22	0xdead15…
08-30 11:35:28	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 30?	Yes	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x473b1c…
08-30 11:34:19	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on August 30?	No	SELL	22	100¢	$22	0x39faa9…
08-30 10:14:15	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on August 30?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x74cdfc…
08-30 10:13:06	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 27°C on August 30?	Yes	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0x3b8abf…
08-30 10:09:39	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on August 30?	Yes	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0xe259ee…
08-30 10:08:30	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on August 29?	Yes	SELL	22	100¢	$22	0x951074…
08-30 10:01:37	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on August 30?	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x9a4ea3…
08-30 10:00:30	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on August 29?	Yes	SELL	22	100¢	$22	0x2e393e…
08-30 09:33:16	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 28°C on August 30?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x9a5bd0…
08-30 09:01:04	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on August 30?	Yes	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x7c863b…
08-30 09:01:03	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 27°C on August 30?	Yes	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x54d43a…
08-29 23:45:00	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on August 29?	Yes	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0xeb1a58…
08-29 22:25:19	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on August 29?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0xb1b23f…
08-29 22:01:57	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on August 29?	Yes	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x30b62a…
08-29 22:00:54	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on August 29?	Yes	SELL	22	100¢	$22	0xff8f9c…
08-29 21:23:22	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C on August 29?	Yes	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x391fd2…
08-29 18:52:00	Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on August 29?	Yes	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0xc6b90d…
08-29 18:50:52	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on August 29?	Yes	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0xef5840…
08-29 18:40:49	Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on August 29?	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x078cef…
08-29 18:39:42	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on August 29?	No	SELL	22	100¢	$22	0x885dee…