Mysterious-Balcony — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$8

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

94.5%

Resolved

Trades

584

lifetime

Volume

$4.72K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-23

last 05-29 10:53

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 9 days

Categories

Politics

49% 100% +$21

Other

43% 40% $-2

Crypto

7% 50% $-11

Tech

0% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

21 active days in 12wk • peak 128 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (4) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	140	$1.6K	841	841	+0	open	—	04-29 00:45
Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?	114	$725	687	626	+61	Yes	+$21	05-05 20:35
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	35	$503	256	256	+0	open	—	04-29 00:45
Iran leadership change by April 30?	42	$416	215	215	+0	open	—	04-27 14:36
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	13	$157	86	86	+0	open	—	04-29 00:45
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	18	$124	64	64	+0	open	—	04-29 00:45
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	8	$63	34	34	+0	open	—	05-03 11:55
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	10	$62	34	34	+0	open	—	05-11 00:45
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	8	$61	34	34	+0	open	—	05-03 11:55
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	10	$59	37	37	+0	open	—	05-11 00:38
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April?	10	$48	25	25	+0	open	—	04-25 15:21
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April?	10	$48	25	25	+0	open	—	04-25 12:15
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	8	$46	28	28	+0	open	—	05-16 04:51
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	6	$45	24	24	+0	Yes	+$0	05-03 11:55
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	6	$44	24	24	+0	open	—	05-03 08:22
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	6	$40	21	21	+0	open	—	05-12 14:33
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	6	$40	24	24	+0	No	+$0	05-03 11:55
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	7	$31	16	16	+0	open	—	04-25 13:32
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31?	4	$26	16	16	+0	open	—	05-03 11:55
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	4	$26	16	16	+0	open	—	05-03 08:22
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	4	$23	26	26	+0	open	—	05-04 15:34
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	4	$22	12	12	+0	open	—	04-25 02:57
Lakers vs. Rockets	4	$18	12	12	+0	open	—	04-24 15:36
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 1?	2	$17	18	0	+18	open	—	05-01 16:26
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	2	$17	16	16	+0	Down	+$7	05-10 15:54
Chirayu Rana apologizes for sexual harassment allegations?	2	$16	9	9	+0	open	—	05-03 03:32
Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	2	$16	8	8	+0	open	—	05-17 07:42
elon musk of tweets april 17 april 24 180 199	4	$15	11	11	+0	open	—	04-24 15:18
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	6	$15	8	8	+0	open	—	04-25 13:31
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026?	2	$15	8	8	+0	open	—	05-17 07:42

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-29 10:53:35	Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31?	No	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0xeccbb3…
05-19 15:29:26	Gemini 3.2 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x2f396d…
05-17 07:43:40	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	BUY	8	81¢	$7	0xbcb3c8…
05-17 07:42:48	Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	8	93¢	$8	0xdbea27…
05-17 07:42:22	Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	No	SELL	8	98¢	$8	0xd2ff54…
05-16 10:07:34	Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	No	BUY	8	95¢	$8	0xb69668…
05-16 04:51:55	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	4	88¢	$3	0xda10e4…
05-13 12:24:31	Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	8	93¢	$8	0x6e2255…
05-13 12:14:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Down	SELL	5	5¢	$0	0x4195bc…
05-13 12:12:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0xd9cf75…
05-12 16:54:40	Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31?	No	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0x98d8ce…
05-12 16:53:00	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	4	84¢	$3	0xf1f8c4…
05-12 16:51:41	Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Sunrisers Hyderabad	Sunrisers Hyderabad	SELL	3	25¢	$1	0x79a8e4…
05-12 14:59:19	Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Sunrisers Hyderabad	Sunrisers Hyderabad	BUY	3	74¢	$2	0xf95af5…
05-12 14:33:51	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	SELL	2	93¢	$2	0x4a0d09…
05-12 14:33:42	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x7d4c98…
05-12 02:26:31	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	BUY	2	92¢	$2	0xfbdc2b…
05-11 17:37:16	Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Delhi Capitals	Punjab Kings	SELL	6	58¢	$3	0xd45209…
05-11 15:04:13	Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Delhi Capitals	Punjab Kings	BUY	6	72¢	$4	0x9e557c…
05-11 15:02:39	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x4fa4c7…
05-11 14:18:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x22b5a5…
05-11 14:16:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Up	SELL	9	63¢	$6	0xfbcf87…
05-11 14:15:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Up	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x4a462d…
05-11 14:12:01	Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage	Spirit	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0xc713ca…
05-11 14:09:36	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	SELL	2	93¢	$2	0xe28fea…
05-11 00:45:40	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	2	94¢	$2	0xcccf82…
05-11 00:45:26	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0xa071fa…
05-11 00:40:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Up	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0x1202cd…
05-11 00:38:16	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	No	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0x3498c3…
05-11 00:38:09	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?	No	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0x7f7fe9…
05-11 00:38:00	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	4	85¢	$3	0x2fc14f…
05-10 17:40:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Up	SELL	10	63¢	$6	0xe9a5e9…
05-10 17:38:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Up	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xd27083…
05-10 17:37:16	Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Mumbai Indians	Royal Challengers Bangalore	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0xa27921…
05-10 17:36:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Down	SELL	8	72¢	$6	0x45100d…
05-10 17:35:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Down	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0x50ed07…
05-10 17:31:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Up	SELL	10	63¢	$6	0xd0a3fd…
05-10 17:29:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Up	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0xa362f4…
05-10 17:22:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Down	BUY	83	6¢	$5	0x112642…
05-10 17:18:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Up	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0xafec9c…
05-10 17:16:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Down	SELL	13	35¢	$5	0x61b665…
05-10 17:16:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Down	BUY	13	38¢	$5	0xa8cf1f…
05-10 17:13:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	4	78¢	$3	0xbc2d41…
05-10 17:12:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Up	SELL	9	74¢	$7	0xc4dd6a…
05-10 17:10:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Up	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0x257836…
05-10 17:07:31	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?	No	BUY	2	91¢	$2	0xc9fff1…
05-10 17:03:00	Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Tommy Paul vs Luciano Darderi	Tommy Paul	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0x517ae6…
05-10 16:57:28	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0xb2f4a5…
05-10 16:53:54	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	No	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x00af2f…
05-10 15:54:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Down	SELL	16	75¢	$12	0xab770d…
05-10 15:52:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Down	BUY	16	32¢	$5	0xedd016…
05-05 20:35:00	Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	8	57¢	$5	0x9a2303…
05-05 20:32:46	Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	7	57¢	$4	0x3da4ac…
05-05 20:32:44	Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	8	57¢	$5	0x674f78…
05-05 18:05:10	Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	8	56¢	$4	0x78dd95…
05-05 15:48:24	Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	7	56¢	$4	0x4cd613…
05-05 15:48:16	Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	8	56¢	$4	0x507c14…
05-05 15:46:06	Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	7	56¢	$4	0x7f59c7…
05-05 15:46:02	Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	8	56¢	$4	0x5c2fb2…
05-05 15:44:10	Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	69	55¢	$38	0x1c9dcf…
05-05 15:43:46	Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	8	56¢	$4	0xc63ca8…
05-05 15:37:54	Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	8	56¢	$4	0x98ef45…
05-05 15:35:38	Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	8	56¢	$4	0xb8ee65…
05-05 15:33:20	Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	7	56¢	$4	0x075a20…
05-05 15:33:18	Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	8	56¢	$4	0xa0fe53…
05-05 15:31:06	Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	7	56¢	$4	0x8bf837…
05-05 15:31:04	Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	8	56¢	$4	0x1aea93…
05-05 15:28:54	Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	7	56¢	$4	0xdd2846…
05-05 15:28:52	Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	8	56¢	$4	0x9b3b4a…
05-05 15:28:34	Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	19	55¢	$11	0x561b37…
05-05 15:26:44	Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	6	56¢	$4	0x554068…
05-05 15:25:18	Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	6	56¢	$4	0xfc47da…
05-05 15:23:54	Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	6	56¢	$4	0xb2359b…
05-05 15:23:28	Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	61	55¢	$33	0x147f5f…
05-05 15:23:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Down	SELL	9	6¢	$1	0x6048f1…
05-05 15:22:38	Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	6	56¢	$4	0xab25cd…
05-05 15:21:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Down	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0x95e656…
05-05 15:21:34	Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	6	56¢	$4	0x114360…
05-05 15:20:28	Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	6	56¢	$4	0x69caac…
05-05 15:20:24	Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	42	55¢	$23	0xf517f5…
05-05 02:36:02	Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	6	56¢	$4	0x2378b2…
05-05 02:34:56	Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	6	56¢	$4	0x479f1c…
05-05 02:33:50	Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	6	56¢	$4	0x1affaf…
05-05 02:32:42	Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	6	56¢	$4	0x0d8ef3…
05-05 02:31:36	Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	6	56¢	$4	0x76cd88…
05-05 02:30:30	Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	6	56¢	$4	0x9626ee…
05-05 02:29:24	Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	6	56¢	$4	0xf24ddb…
05-05 02:28:22	Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	6	56¢	$4	0x9cf17e…
05-05 02:27:16	Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	6	56¢	$4	0x005896…
05-05 02:26:10	Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	6	56¢	$4	0x1d6be6…
05-05 02:25:04	Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	6	56¢	$4	0xf7347f…
05-05 02:23:58	Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	6	56¢	$4	0x7b5c62…
05-05 02:22:52	Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	6	56¢	$4	0x25bea8…
05-04 16:54:10	Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	96	54¢	$52	0x59c5c8…
05-04 16:38:44	Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	6	55¢	$4	0x721988…
05-04 16:37:38	Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	6	55¢	$4	0x1e3e3d…
05-04 16:36:32	Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	6	55¢	$4	0x39fd07…
05-04 16:35:26	Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	6	55¢	$4	0x17ee91…
05-04 16:34:20	Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	6	55¢	$4	0xaf0435…
05-04 16:33:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Down	SELL	10	64¢	$6	0x1f078b…