Knowledgeable-Convection — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$764

Unrealized P&L

-$42

Hit rate

64.4%

Resolved

454

Trades

3,780

lifetime

Volume

$79.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$21

Open exposure

$311

7 positions

First seen

2026-05-11

last 10-29 06:17

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 134 days

Categories

Crypto

55% 61% -$721

Politics

41% 0% -$3

Other

2% 30% -$44

Sports

1% 20% +$4

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

78 active days in 12wk • peak 200 trades/day

Open positions (7) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in October?	No	+112	$110	99¢	$111	+$2	10-28 18:49
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in October?	No	+72	$63	96¢	$69	+$7	10-28 18:36
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	+82	$116	82¢	$67	-$49	10-29 06:17
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in October?	No	+33	$31	98¢	$32	+$1	10-29 11:42
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	+82	$19	18¢	$15	-$4	10-29 06:17
Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 in October?	No	+9	$8	96¢	$9	+$1	10-03 17:03
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in October?	No	+7	$6	100¢	$7	+$1	10-19 15:49

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	170	$32.6K	26,946	26,781	+165	open	—	10-29 06:17
will ethereum reach 1800 on july 3	7	$3.3K	1,733	1,733	+0	No	-$100	07-03 20:33
will ethereum reach 1900 on july 14	55	$2.6K	1,820	886	+934	No	-$17	07-15 02:40
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	3	$2.2K	1,243	1,000	+243	No	+$7	06-03 21:41
will bitcoin reach 75k in june 2026	233	$2.0K	1,053	1,012	+41	No	+$4	06-26 16:07
will bitcoin reach 66k on july 6	15	$1.9K	996	996	+0	No	-$1	07-07 00:39
will ethereum reach 1800 on july 8	12	$1.9K	1,284	670	+613	No	-$31	07-09 01:55
Will XRP reach $1.60 in May?	82	$1.8K	1,089	834	+254	No	+$48	05-29 13:56
will bitcoin dip to 59k on july 2	5	$1.8K	1,860	0	+1,860	No	+$73	07-02 21:07
will ethereum reach 2000 july 13 19 2026	18	$1.5K	1,241	249	+992	No	+$20	07-18 10:44
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in September?	57	$1.4K	762	714	+48	No	+$2	09-21 17:52
will bitcoin reach 68k on july 15	1	$1.1K	1,090	0	+1,090	No	+$15	07-15 08:51
will bitcoin reach 66k on july 7	2	$1.0K	1,060	0	+1,060	No	+$14	07-07 07:57
will ethereum reach 2000 in june 2026 from june 2	8	$982	501	501	+0	No	+$0	06-27 00:57
mlb atl cws 2026 06 10	1	$910	1,000	0	+1,000	Chicago White Sox	+$90	06-11 02:16
will bitcoin dip to 61k on july 4	2	$902	569	379	+190	No	+$14	07-04 08:03
will bitcoin reach 62k on july 1	11	$691	348	348	+0	No	+$3	07-02 04:12
will ethereum reach 1900 on july 6	4	$652	337	337	+0	No	+$3	07-06 22:22
will bitcoin reach 65k on june 19	52	$632	324	324	+0	No	+$4	06-20 02:42
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	1	$568	574	0	+574	No	+$6	05-29 11:40
will bitcoin dip to 62k on july 20	7	$489	357	142	+216	No	+$8	07-20 18:55
msft above 390 on july 3 2026	13	$440	233	224	+10	Yes	-$12	07-02 20:31
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in May?	187	$417	211	211	+0	No	$0	05-31 23:11
will solana reach 80 on july 16	4	$406	413	0	+413	No	+$7	07-17 00:28
will bitcoin reach 77pt5k in june 2026	23	$391	204	204	-0	No	+$2	06-17 19:54
will bitcoin dip to 62k on july 4	4	$389	196	196	+0	No	+$3	07-05 04:12
Will Solana reach $100 in May?	8	$375	114	266	-152	No	+$1	05-28 06:18
will solana dip to 60 in june 2026	31	$369	274	274	+0	No	-$2	06-25 05:24
will xrp reach 1pt15 on july 5	2	$356	403	0	+403	Yes	-$356	07-05 22:16
will bitcoin dip to 50k in june 2026	32	$344	181	181	+0	No	+$6	06-24 00:50

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 11:42:26	Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in October?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x88a2cb…
10-29 06:17:28	Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	82	18¢	$15	0x26be86…
10-29 06:17:28	Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	82	82¢	$68	0x16c296…
10-28 18:49:02	Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in October?	No	BUY	20	97¢	$20	0x6d6b6a…
10-28 18:48:52	Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in October?	No	BUY	21	97¢	$20	0x7cefdb…
10-28 18:48:05	Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in October?	No	BUY	21	97¢	$21	0xd56218…
10-28 18:47:16	Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in October?	No	BUY	22	98¢	$22	0x6a634d…
10-28 18:44:19	Will XRP reach $1.40 in October?	No	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x6a7e36…
10-28 18:43:11	Will XRP reach $1.40 in October?	No	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0xef613d…
10-28 18:41:46	Will Ethereum reach $2,550 on October 28?	No	BUY	23	99¢	$22	0x3550a9…
10-28 18:40:23	Will Ethereum reach $2,500 on October 28?	No	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0xec3242…
10-28 18:38:59	Will XRP reach $1.40 in October?	No	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x0ee058…
10-28 18:38:23	Will XRP reach $1.40 in October?	No	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0xb6cd8e…
10-28 18:36:56	Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in October?	No	BUY	26	96¢	$24	0xe0f0d3…
10-28 18:36:37	Will XRP reach $1.40 in October?	No	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x99fc25…
10-28 18:36:35	Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in October?	No	BUY	4	84¢	$3	0x6095b6…
10-28 18:35:55	Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in October?	No	BUY	27	86¢	$23	0xe9f221…
10-28 18:35:55	Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in October?	No	BUY	3	96¢	$3	0x2050f1…
10-28 18:35:29	Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in October?	No	BUY	28	87¢	$24	0x4ff397…
10-28 18:34:22	Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in October?	No	BUY	3	97¢	$3	0xbf1727…
10-28 18:30:44	Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in October?	No	BUY	14	98¢	$13	0xc0ad90…
10-28 18:29:58	Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in October?	No	BUY	14	98¢	$14	0x569b82…
10-28 18:26:35	Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in October?	No	BUY	14	88¢	$13	0x8e66a2…
10-28 17:51:59	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	49	97¢	$47	0xef0244…
10-28 17:44:23	Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	80	18¢	$14	0x8a9695…
10-28 17:44:22	Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	580	82¢	$474	0x2ff277…
10-28 16:57:37	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0xed72a9…
10-27 21:31:57	Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 on October 27?	No	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0xb320e0…
10-27 21:31:47	Will Bitcoin reach $81,000 on October 27?	No	BUY	4	1¢	$0	0x1bf1a5…
10-26 23:18:15	Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	359	81¢	$291	0x93c1ec…
10-26 21:11:08	Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	63	81¢	$51	0x3a6af5…
10-26 21:11:08	Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	23	19¢	$4	0x3a6a8a…
10-26 21:08:21	Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	23	19¢	$4	0x92e96e…
10-26 21:08:21	Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	63	81¢	$51	0x5992f8…
10-26 20:28:27	Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	63	80¢	$51	0xcd21d0…
10-26 20:28:27	Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	23	19¢	$4	0x48f0b6…
10-26 17:13:18	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	6	92¢	$5	0xf50977…
10-26 14:48:36	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	6	94¢	$5	0x5e6e42…
10-25 23:31:00	Will Ethereum dip to $2,300 on October 25?	No	BUY	2	87¢	$2	0xf42d4b…
10-25 23:27:50	Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 on October 25?	No	BUY	3	1¢	$0	0x2420b5…
10-25 22:01:20	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	3	95¢	$3	0x737281…
10-25 18:15:50	Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	34	20¢	$7	0x5c03ae…
10-25 18:15:50	Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	94	79¢	$75	0x1d40cd…
10-25 10:16:47	Will Ethereum reach $2,500 October 19-25?	No	SELL	0	99¢	$0	0x25172a…
10-25 03:52:05	Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	322	80¢	$256	0xa8e434…
10-25 02:24:24	Will Bitcoin dip to $79,000 on October 24?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xb1e950…
10-25 01:38:50	Will Ethereum reach $2,500 October 19-25?	No	SELL	0	97¢	$0	0xb61346…
10-24 23:35:08	Will Bitcoin dip to $79,000 on October 24?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xf6d54f…
10-24 23:33:47	Will Bitcoin dip to $79,000 on October 24?	No	SELL	0	99¢	$0	0x750a48…
10-24 23:32:51	Will Bitcoin dip to $79,000 on October 24?	No	SELL	0	99¢	$0	0x0de5c4…
10-24 23:27:02	Will Bitcoin dip to $79,000 on October 24?	No	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0x7ac966…
10-24 22:56:09	Will Ethereum reach $2,500 October 19-25?	No	SELL	0	97¢	$0	0x838777…
10-24 22:36:23	Will Bitcoin dip to $79,000 on October 24?	No	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0xf16ef9…
10-24 22:36:18	Will Bitcoin dip to $79,000 on October 24?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x76bebf…
10-24 20:53:02	Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	136	20¢	$28	0xffab2e…
10-24 20:53:02	Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	136	79¢	$108	0x9f787d…
10-24 17:32:51	Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	45	79¢	$36	0x990e49…
10-24 17:32:51	Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	45	20¢	$9	0x210dd7…
10-24 15:16:36	Will Ethereum reach $2,500 October 19-25?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x8bfa45…
10-24 15:16:30	Will Bitcoin dip to $79,000 on October 24?	No	BUY	4	38¢	$1	0xf4ed8f…
10-24 15:16:26	Will Ethereum dip to $2,300 on October 24?	No	BUY	3	0¢	$0	0xccd3e1…
10-24 15:10:14	Will Ethereum dip to $2,300 on October 24?	No	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0xf98720…
10-24 15:10:14	Will Bitcoin dip to $79,000 on October 24?	No	BUY	4	56¢	$2	0x764980…
10-24 15:10:12	Will Ethereum dip to $2,300 October 19-25?	No	BUY	1	21¢	$0	0x127da0…
10-24 14:18:18	Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 on October 24?	No	BUY	1	17¢	$0	0x85bd87…
10-24 14:15:54	Will Ethereum dip to $2,350 on October 24?	No	BUY	3	1¢	$0	0x10cbad…
10-24 05:00:41	Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	244	80¢	$195	0x788852…
10-24 05:00:39	Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	244	21¢	$51	0x11cf9e…
10-24 02:52:02	Will Ethereum dip to $2,350 on October 23?	No	SELL	0	99¢	$0	0xadcb14…
10-24 02:51:36	Will Ethereum dip to $2,350 on October 23?	No	SELL	0	99¢	$0	0xb27d49…
10-24 02:51:05	Will Ethereum dip to $2,350 on October 23?	No	SELL	0	99¢	$0	0xc73a14…
10-24 02:48:09	Will Ethereum dip to $2,350 on October 23?	No	SELL	0	96¢	$0	0xf48a36…
10-24 01:37:30	Will Ethereum reach $2,500 October 19-25?	No	SELL	0	95¢	$0	0x4801eb…
10-23 22:58:48	Will Ethereum reach $2,500 October 19-25?	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x3b0d49…
10-23 22:58:23	Will Ethereum reach $2,500 October 19-25?	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xa6bf2f…
10-23 22:53:54	Will Ethereum dip to $2,350 on October 23?	No	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0x55012c…
10-23 22:36:36	Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 October 19-25?	No	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x81586b…
10-23 22:31:57	Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 October 19-25?	No	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0xbbe796…
10-23 20:57:17	Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	24	20¢	$5	0xf8578e…
10-23 20:57:17	Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	24	80¢	$19	0x4eb610…
10-23 19:42:29	Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	24	80¢	$19	0x5279f2…
10-23 19:42:27	Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	24	20¢	$5	0x3fa110…
10-23 17:37:18	Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	24	20¢	$5	0xbc6bdb…
10-23 17:37:18	Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	24	80¢	$19	0x48bce7…
10-23 15:10:09	Will Bitcoin dip to $81,000 on October 23?	No	BUY	1	44¢	$1	0x4ef488…
10-22 01:46:50	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 on October 21?	No	SELL	0	97¢	$0	0xc4352e…
10-22 01:01:14	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 on October 21?	No	SELL	0	93¢	$0	0x7c017e…
10-22 01:00:17	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 on October 21?	No	SELL	0	92¢	$0	0xae107c…
10-22 01:00:12	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 on October 21?	No	SELL	0	92¢	$0	0x6ce465…
10-21 23:49:26	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 on October 21?	No	SELL	0	89¢	$0	0xac1e56…
10-21 22:59:21	Will Bitcoin reach $87,000 on October 21?	No	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0x04b6a0…
10-21 22:45:41	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 on October 21?	No	SELL	0	71¢	$0	0xfee8d2…
10-21 22:17:47	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 on October 21?	No	SELL	0	51¢	$0	0x0cba98…
10-21 21:22:30	Will Bitcoin reach $87,000 on October 21?	No	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0x51924c…
10-21 20:41:33	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 on October 21?	No	BUY	1	36¢	$0	0x1358de…
10-21 19:12:30	Will Bitcoin reach $87,000 on October 21?	No	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0x3aa7db…
10-21 19:00:24	Will Bitcoin reach $87,000 on October 21?	No	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0x5b0cab…
10-21 18:33:35	Will Bitcoin reach $87,000 on October 21?	No	SELL	0	97¢	$0	0x84244c…
10-21 17:48:14	Will Bitcoin reach $87,000 on October 21?	No	SELL	0	97¢	$0	0xb6715d…
10-21 17:38:24	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 on October 21?	No	BUY	1	39¢	$1	0x3eed02…