Improbable-Number — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.25K

Unrealized P&L

-$15

Hit rate

70.3%

Resolved

1,529

Trades

3,079

lifetime

Volume

$81.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$26

Open exposure

$75

7 positions

First seen

2026-04-04

last 11-12 08:39

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 30 days

Categories

Crypto

77% 52% -$1,030

Other

23% 47% -$218

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

19 active days in 12wk • peak 344 trades/day

Open positions (7) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by December 31, 2026?	No		+91	$10	28¢	$25	+$15	11-12 01:05
Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 30, 2026?	No		+62	$10	32¢	$20	+$10	11-12 01:05
Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 12, 2026?	No		+31	$10	60¢	$19	+$9	11-12 01:06
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?	No		+222	$20	4¢	$8	-$12	11-10 12:32
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on November 12?	Yes		+83	$10	2¢	$2	-$8	11-11 12:51
LoL: Nothin'Here vs Saigon Warriors - Game 3 Winner	Nothin'Here		+150	$20	0¢	$0	-$20	11-12 08:26
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Up	—	+20	$10	2¢	$0	-$10	11-12 10:44

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Counter-Strike: Fortress vs ILLYRIANS (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Series #13 Group D	6	$1.4K	885	885	+0	ILLYRIANS	+$281	11-01 14:10
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-06 12:15 UTC	3	$1.2K	1,014	821	+193	Up	+$215	04-06 12:16
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage	4	$1.1K	820	820	+0	Dplus KIA	+$218	10-25 00:00
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-06 12:45 UTC	4	$1.0K	909	500	+409	Down	-$227	04-06 12:47
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs 1WIN (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship Closed Qualifier Playoffs	2	$1.0K	641	641	+0	Heroic	+$30	09-12 19:50
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner	8	$934	878	878	+0	T1	+$135	09-12 07:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	4	$914	774	738	+36	Down	+$121	11-04 02:53
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs T1 - Game 3 Winner	6	$857	748	648	+100	Bilibili Gaming	+$81	11-09 00:34
LoL: G2 NORD vs BIG - Game 2 Winner	2	$833	603	603	+0	G2 NORD	+$361	09-12 14:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	2	$794	548	548	+0	Up	+$235	11-02 16:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	2	$787	523	523	+0	Up	+$207	10-24 14:52
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner	11	$745	941	941	+0	Hanwha Life Esports	+$93	09-12 06:07
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Invictus Gaming - Game 4 Winner	5	$740	483	483	+0	Invictus Gaming	+$125	09-12 12:36
LoL: LOS vs LYON - Game 2 Winner	3	$711	440	440	+0	LYON	+$159	10-31 20:41
Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs Metizport - Map 2 Winner	25	$617	793	712	+81	Metizport	-$63	11-01 13:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	8	$612	571	571	+0	Up	+$162	11-09 16:48
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 3 Winner	3	$598	792	403	+389	Bilibili Gaming	-$42	09-13 11:27
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-05 18:05 UTC	3	$542	639	352	+287	Down	+$114	04-05 18:09
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs	7	$532	841	573	+268	Movistar KOI	+$2	09-12 19:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	4	$509	368	368	+0	Up	+$109	11-02 16:02
lol blg al 2026 09 13 game2	2	$485	252	252	+0	Anyone's Legend	+$17	09-13 10:38
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	3	$474	333	333	+0	Up	+$78	11-12 01:47
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	2	$451	264	264	+0	Up	+$71	10-24 05:44
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-06 13:05 UTC	5	$437	446	405	+42	Down	-$15	04-06 13:08
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	6	$435	322	322	+0	Up	+$115	11-11 09:09
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Invictus Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	6	$435	693	208	+485	Anyone's Legend	-$239	09-12 14:27
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-06 12:50 UTC	4	$405	444	433	+11	Down	-$191	04-06 12:56
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Invictus Gaming - Game 2 Winner	4	$403	685	293	+393	Anyone's Legend	+$77	09-12 10:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	5	$397	336	336	+0	Up	+$17	11-01 15:08
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs T1 - Game 2 Winner	2	$397	315	315	+0	T1	+$151	11-08 23:27

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-12 10:44:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Up	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xf1c28f…
11-12 10:40:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Up	BUY	23	43¢	$10	0x4fc24b…
11-12 10:33:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Up	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x7ab3d0…
11-12 10:29:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Up	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0x9662c1…
11-12 10:19:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Up	BUY	21	47¢	$10	0x7ebc6e…
11-12 10:16:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Up	BUY	17	59¢	$10	0x6d938a…
11-12 10:10:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Up	BUY	16	61¢	$10	0x2969dd…
11-12 10:04:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Up	BUY	21	47¢	$10	0x23091e…
11-12 10:04:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Down	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x990ca8…
11-12 08:39:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Up	SELL	38	99¢	$38	0x75f3ba…
11-12 08:34:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Up	BUY	19	52¢	$10	0xd76fc1…
11-12 08:34:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Up	BUY	19	53¢	$10	0x63fcb8…
11-12 08:34:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Up	SELL	19	99¢	$19	0xb47894…
11-12 08:29:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Up	BUY	19	52¢	$10	0x689eb5…
11-12 08:26:46	LoL: Nothin'Here vs Saigon Warriors - Game 3 Winner	Nothin'Here	BUY	31	16¢	$5	0x354195…
11-12 08:24:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Up	BUY	19	52¢	$10	0x9943b1…
11-12 08:22:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Down	SELL	22	91¢	$20	0x797137…
11-12 08:19:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Down	BUY	22	45¢	$10	0xbe1e7e…
11-12 08:14:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Up	BUY	24	42¢	$10	0x97f360…
11-12 08:09:45	LoL: Nothin'Here vs Saigon Warriors - Game 3 Winner	Nothin'Here	BUY	83	6¢	$5	0xacdd3f…
11-12 08:02:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Up	BUY	13	40¢	$5	0xf4adf5…
11-12 07:57:58	LoL: Nothin'Here vs Saigon Warriors - Game 3 Winner	Nothin'Here	BUY	36	28¢	$10	0x6255db…
11-12 07:55:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Up	BUY	15	66¢	$10	0xee4e00…
11-12 07:48:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Up	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x52c308…
11-12 07:45:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	Down	BUY	18	28¢	$5	0x027da5…
11-12 07:45:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	Up	SELL	19	66¢	$12	0xfd3c06…
11-12 07:44:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	Up	BUY	19	54¢	$10	0x818cee…
11-12 07:42:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Up	BUY	38	13¢	$5	0xd27733…
11-12 06:56:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	Up	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x778ef0…
11-12 05:32:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	Up	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x3b71fe…
11-12 05:22:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	Up	BUY	19	53¢	$10	0x477f01…
11-12 05:20:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Up	SELL	18	99¢	$18	0x127052…
11-12 05:14:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Up	BUY	18	55¢	$10	0xdea5ca…
11-12 05:05:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	Up	BUY	16	62¢	$10	0xc5bb14…
11-12 04:44:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Up	SELL	42	92¢	$39	0xe2a064…
11-12 04:40:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Up	BUY	23	22¢	$5	0xb1be0f…
11-12 04:40:06	Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 11, 2026?	No	SELL	17	94¢	$16	0xafa7ee…
11-12 04:38:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Up	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x1daa2c…
11-12 04:38:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	Up	SELL	68	95¢	$65	0x1a2c0f…
11-12 04:35:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	Up	BUY	45	22¢	$10	0x29df80…
11-12 04:35:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	Up	BUY	23	44¢	$10	0x1564c5…
11-12 04:29:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	Up	BUY	13	75¢	$10	0xf1b68f…
11-12 04:29:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	Up	SELL	74	95¢	$70	0x0627c1…
11-12 04:28:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Up	BUY	39	51¢	$20	0xb91913…
11-12 04:25:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	Up	BUY	21	47¢	$10	0x30644d…
11-12 04:25:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	Up	BUY	53	38¢	$20	0xd9db43…
11-12 04:21:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Up	BUY	43	23¢	$10	0x01c829…
11-12 04:13:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Up	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0xcf1245…
11-12 04:02:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Up	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xac9246…
11-12 03:56:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Up	BUY	14	72¢	$10	0xcfdfed…
11-12 03:51:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	Up	BUY	15	65¢	$10	0x3f3ada…
11-12 03:37:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	Up	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x88abce…
11-12 03:25:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	26	39¢	$10	0x00f5c7…
11-12 03:02:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	Up	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x5171b0…
11-12 03:02:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Up	SELL	50	95¢	$48	0x32050e…
11-12 02:59:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Up	BUY	50	60¢	$30	0x74a6f8…
11-12 02:55:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Up	BUY	48	42¢	$20	0x27eb23…
11-12 02:50:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Up	BUY	16	62¢	$10	0x054c0f…
11-12 02:49:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Up	SELL	23	99¢	$23	0x58d643…
11-12 02:45:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Up	BUY	23	43¢	$10	0x27aeb7…
11-12 02:44:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Up	SELL	62	99¢	$61	0x830aae…
11-12 02:41:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Up	BUY	27	37¢	$10	0x05c7fe…
11-12 02:39:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Up	BUY	35	57¢	$20	0x3c9eea…
11-12 02:35:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Up	BUY	19	52¢	$10	0x97cebb…
11-12 02:35:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Up	BUY	19	52¢	$10	0xb50457…
11-12 02:30:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	Up	BUY	15	66¢	$10	0xac8231…
11-12 02:29:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Down	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x8ec23c…
11-12 02:28:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Up	SELL	38	53¢	$20	0xa45c4e…
11-12 02:25:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Up	BUY	18	57¢	$10	0x902f96…
11-12 02:25:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Up	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xd746f8…
11-12 02:18:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Up	BUY	41	49¢	$20	0x2bfb01…
11-12 02:18:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Up	SELL	41	99¢	$40	0x65f416…
11-12 02:13:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Up	BUY	41	49¢	$20	0xa8d2cd…
11-12 02:12:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Up	SELL	40	98¢	$39	0x98a9c1…
11-12 02:09:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Up	BUY	40	50¢	$20	0x2e5267…
11-12 02:08:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Up	SELL	40	100¢	$40	0x5de3f5…
11-12 02:04:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Up	BUY	19	53¢	$10	0x63303c…
11-12 02:04:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Up	BUY	21	47¢	$10	0xd73f5f…
11-12 01:59:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Up	BUY	18	55¢	$10	0x095e9f…
11-12 01:59:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	39	25¢	$10	0xf1e3e8…
11-12 01:59:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Up	SELL	138	73¢	$101	0xdbbf5f…
11-12 01:58:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Up	BUY	77	13¢	$10	0x4706f6…
11-12 01:55:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Up	BUY	62	65¢	$40	0x4b0bc0…
11-12 01:52:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Up	BUY	38	26¢	$10	0x56e8b0…
11-12 01:51:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Up	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x5282fa…
11-12 01:47:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Up	SELL	333	83¢	$276	0xb5f689…
11-12 01:45:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Up	BUY	163	60¢	$98	0x29e92d…
11-12 01:45:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Up	BUY	169	59¢	$100	0x62c556…
11-12 01:39:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Up	BUY	131	52¢	$68	0xd98192…
11-12 01:35:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Up	BUY	61	49¢	$30	0x4cdddb…
11-12 01:24:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	Up	BUY	48	52¢	$25	0x5ddbc4…
11-12 01:22:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Up	BUY	17	29¢	$5	0x3f4a01…
11-12 01:18:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Up	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0xaf576b…
11-12 01:06:18	Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 12, 2026?	No	BUY	31	32¢	$10	0xfeb42a…
11-12 01:06:03	Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 11, 2026?	No	BUY	17	60¢	$10	0xff156f…
11-12 01:05:45	Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	91	11¢	$10	0x7e1c58…
11-12 01:05:33	Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	62	16¢	$10	0x590b62…
11-12 00:39:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Up	BUY	21	47¢	$10	0x3b808b…
11-11 17:14:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Up	BUY	22	46¢	$10	0xd96e1a…
11-11 17:14:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Up	SELL	46	100¢	$46	0x162602…