Identical-Organising — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$34

Unrealized P&L

-$11

Hit rate

94.3%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$455

lifetime

Avg / trade

$18

Open exposure

$56

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-31

last 09-15 08:43

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 12 days

Categories

Other

48% 86% +$11

Politics

43% 86% +$20

Tech

9% 100% +$3

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 1 trade/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (16) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No		+43	$37	98¢	$42	+$5	06-29 15:13
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	No		+62	$30	24¢	$15	-$15	09-15 08:43

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30?	3	$106	63	48	+16	No	+$4	06-29 14:39
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	2	$43	25	25	+0	No	+$3	05-12 04:30
will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	1	$37	43	0	+43	open	—	06-29 15:13
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	1	$32	33	0	+33	Yes	+$1	05-18 13:37
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	1	$30	62	0	+62	open	—	09-15 08:43
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $230 in May?	4	$26	14	14	+0	No	+$2	05-25 13:19
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	1	$25	27	0	+27	No	+$2	05-24 14:54
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?	1	$24	25	0	+25	No	+$1	05-18 11:49
Iran coup attempt by June 30?	2	$23	12	12	+0	No	+$1	05-07 05:30
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	1	$20	32	0	+32	Yes	+$12	01-31 14:17
Hamburg European Open: Francisco Cerundolo vs Alex de Minaur	1	$17	20	0	+20	Alex de Minaur	+$3	05-18 11:57
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?	1	$15	0	15	-15	No	$0	01-31 12:02
Will Tucker Carlson announce Presidential run by June 30?	1	$13	14	0	+14	No	+$1	05-04 11:20
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	2	$11	13	0	+13	Yes	+$2	05-18 13:33
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	1	$10	16	0	+16	No	+$6	06-29 15:16
Hamburg European Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Corentin Moutet	1	$10	10	0	+10	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	+$0	05-18 11:55
will the government shutdown last 4 days or more 831	1	$7	10	0	+10	Yes	-$7	01-31 14:18
Will Trump say "Make America Great Again" this week?	1	$7	10	0	+10	Yes	+$3	05-21 01:31

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-15 08:43:37	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	No	BUY	62	48¢	$30	0x673665…
06-29 15:16:32	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	16	61¢	$10	0xa2ce4b…
06-29 15:13:49	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	BUY	43	87¢	$37	0x99ac47…
06-29 14:39:23	Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30?	No	SELL	48	99¢	$47	0x728b9d…
05-25 13:19:38	Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $230 in May?	No	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0x8dee1b…
05-25 10:43:09	Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $230 in May?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x90bae5…
05-24 20:11:29	Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $230 in May?	No	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0x038abd…
05-24 14:54:42	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	No	BUY	27	92¢	$25	0x7748d5…
05-23 11:57:24	Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30?	No	BUY	16	93¢	$15	0x17c1e0…
05-21 01:31:50	Will Trump say "Make America Great Again" this week?	Yes	BUY	10	66¢	$7	0xc39b1f…
05-18 13:37:36	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	Yes	BUY	33	97¢	$32	0xa9c410…
05-18 13:33:36	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	BUY	4	86¢	$3	0x28f54a…
05-18 13:02:34	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	BUY	9	86¢	$8	0xd16f49…
05-18 11:58:54	Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $230 in May?	No	BUY	14	86¢	$12	0xf9074b…
05-18 11:57:16	Hamburg European Open: Francisco Cerundolo vs Alex de Minaur	Alex de Minaur	BUY	20	87¢	$17	0x9aba83…
05-18 11:55:41	Hamburg European Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Corentin Moutet	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0x52b6a7…
05-18 11:53:58	Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30?	No	BUY	47	93¢	$44	0xbfb335…
05-18 11:49:55	U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?	No	BUY	25	95¢	$24	0xe95ef5…
05-12 04:30:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	25	89¢	$23	0xdc6bb0…
05-07 05:30:43	Iran coup attempt by June 30?	No	SELL	12	94¢	$12	0x4117d2…
05-04 11:20:32	Will Tucker Carlson announce Presidential run by June 30?	No	BUY	14	95¢	$13	0x546646…
05-04 09:44:14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	25	79¢	$20	0xf51b13…
05-04 09:42:14	Iran coup attempt by June 30?	No	BUY	12	89¢	$11	0xab043e…
01-31 14:18:48	will the government shutdown last 4 days or more 831	No	BUY	10	73¢	$7	0x6998a1…
01-31 14:17:26	us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	Yes	BUY	32	62¢	$20	0x66d809…
01-31 12:02:26	Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?	No	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0xdea50d…