Untried-Plight — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$4.82K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

11.8%

Resolved

101

Trades

150

lifetime

Volume

$8.91K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$59

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-09

last 07-07 09:24

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 43 days

Categories

Politics

71% 9% -$3,700

Other

21% 0% -$768

Crypto

7% 10% -$347

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-07-07).

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	7	$1.1K	127,217	0	+127,217	No	-$1,140	04-01 03:54
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	6	$1.1K	12,975	7,802	+5,173	No	-$328	04-22 19:44
us strikes iran by february 26 2026 368	3	$749	67,215	67,215	+0	No	-$480	02-27 02:54
us strikes iran by february 27 2026	5	$680	14,066	14,066	+0	No	-$206	02-28 04:15
us strikes iran by february 24 2026	3	$595	19,015	19,015	+0	No	+$165	02-24 20:10
us strikes iran by february 25 2026	2	$498	29,308	29,308	+0	No	-$264	02-25 21:34
us strikes iran by february 18 2026	4	$432	15,991	15,991	+0	No	-$136	02-18 07:29
us strikes iran by february 21 2026	3	$409	69,609	0	+69,609	No	-$409	02-22 01:31
us strikes iran by february 19 2026 992	3	$330	10,966	1,875	+9,091	No	-$160	02-18 22:26
kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15	2	$302	2,750	2,750	+0	No	-$138	04-08 19:10
will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	3	$273	2,257	2,257	+0	No	-$43	02-20 05:01
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?	3	$245	5,712	5,712	+0	No	+$85	05-25 20:40
us strikes iran by february 23 2026 678 563	2	$218	18,182	18,182	+0	No	-$182	02-24 04:43
us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	1	$200	11,387	0	+11,387	No	-$200	02-20 14:49
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	2	$190	30,500	0	+30,500	No	-$190	04-16 15:27
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-08 19:25 UTC	2	$189	109	107	+2	Down	+$26	04-08 19:31
will another country conduct military action against iran by april 15 2026	1	$156	7,336	0	+7,336	No	-$156	04-20 19:33
Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	1	$120	2,450	0	+2,450	No	-$120	05-17 22:05
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-09 04:40 UTC	1	$107	133	0	+133	Down	-$107	04-09 04:43
us strikes iran by february 10 2026	1	$97	10,778	0	+10,778	No	-$97	02-10 05:54
us strikes iran by february 9 2026 113 751	1	$96	4,571	0	+4,571	No	-$96	02-09 23:33
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	1	$60	2,400	0	+2,400	No	-$60	05-31 18:31
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	2	$60	5,667	0	+5,667	Yes	-$60	05-24 01:36
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	3	$60	1,742	1,053	+690	No	-$20	05-08 13:39
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	2	$60	2,428	2,428	+0	Yes	-$40	05-25 06:28
trump declassifies new ufo files by july 7	1	$48	1,328	0	+1,328	No	-$48	07-07 08:36
us strikes iran by february 17 2026 833	2	$45	3,762	3,762	+0	No	-$15	02-17 18:40
starmer out by june 15 2026	1	$40	4,430	0	+4,430	No	-$40	06-12 12:50
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	1	$30	3,333	0	+3,333	No	-$30	05-31 18:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	2	$30	775	0	+775	Up	-$30	05-26 13:39

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-07 09:24:08	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-07 09:20 UTC	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x510986…
07-07 09:23:43	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-07 09:20 UTC	Up	BUY	11	19¢	$2	0xd469a8…
07-07 08:36:53	trump declassifies new ufo files by july 7	Yes	BUY	1,328	4¢	$48	0x969ca1…
06-13 17:17:54	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-13 17:15 UTC	Down	BUY	71	7¢	$5	0x120dd5…
06-13 17:13:18	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-13 17:10 UTC	Up	BUY	23	22¢	$5	0x51e044…
06-13 17:06:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-13 17:05 UTC	Down	BUY	89	28¢	$25	0x281c04…
06-13 17:04:07	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-13 17:00 UTC	Up	BUY	125	4¢	$5	0x3c2ee4…
06-13 16:37:49	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-13 16:35 UTC	Down	BUY	26	19¢	$5	0xeff2da…
06-12 12:50:40	starmer out by june 15 2026	Yes	BUY	4,430	1¢	$40	0x386cfa…
06-11 19:58:21	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-11 19:55 UTC	Up	BUY	56	9¢	$5	0xb1856d…
05-31 18:31:37	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	Yes	BUY	2,400	2¢	$60	0x76810e…
05-31 18:30:38	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3,333	1¢	$30	0x616f22…
05-31 18:29:42	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	5,000	0¢	$10	0xb107a1…
05-31 18:28:06	Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31?	Yes	BUY	6,000	0¢	$30	0xec2219…
05-27 08:44:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Up	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0x340157…
05-27 08:19:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Up	BUY	65	8¢	$5	0x6427f3…
05-27 08:08:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Up	BUY	167	3¢	$5	0x21002c…
05-26 13:39:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Down	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0x702ea2…
05-26 13:38:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Down	BUY	275	9¢	$25	0xc6e8b9…
05-26 13:26:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	Up	BUY	86	29¢	$25	0x638fcf…
05-26 13:04:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Up	BUY	209	2¢	$5	0x04c8a3…
05-26 12:44:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Down	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0xe83c6a…
05-26 12:24:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Up	BUY	250	2¢	$5	0xdbfe83…
05-26 12:14:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Down	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0xd09548…
05-26 12:03:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Down	BUY	62	8¢	$5	0x9a39c0…
05-26 11:59:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	83	6¢	$5	0x3e3720…
05-26 11:48:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	Down	BUY	38	13¢	$5	0xbb2eb4…
05-26 11:39:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Up	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0x102d17…
05-26 11:34:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	Down	BUY	22	23¢	$5	0xdc0846…
05-26 11:08:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Up	BUY	45	11¢	$5	0xbcced0…
05-26 09:27:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Down	BUY	45	11¢	$5	0xd7eb53…
05-26 09:23:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Up	BUY	167	3¢	$5	0xc389f2…
05-26 09:13:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Down	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0xb157e8…
05-26 09:08:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Up	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0xc10476…
05-26 08:58:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Up	BUY	56	9¢	$5	0x336a19…
05-26 07:58:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	68	7¢	$5	0x1be702…
05-26 07:49:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Down	BUY	92	5¢	$5	0x052648…
05-26 04:45:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	Up	BUY	13	39¢	$5	0xf608df…
05-26 04:38:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	Up	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0x75c31f…
05-26 00:08:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Down	BUY	14	37¢	$5	0x997290…
05-25 20:40:41	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?	No	SELL	5,712	3¢	$165	0x641df4…
05-25 08:32:10	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?	No	BUY	3,490	1¢	$40	0x066301…
05-25 06:33:12	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?	No	BUY	2,222	2¢	$40	0x5acf46…
05-25 06:28:32	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	No	SELL	2,428	0¢	$10	0x16c083…
05-24 04:16:04	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	No	BUY	2,428	2¢	$50	0x1522df…
05-24 01:36:42	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	No	BUY	3,333	0¢	$10	0x9e4458…
05-23 22:23:21	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	No	BUY	2,334	2¢	$50	0x50a2fa…
05-18 06:21:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	Up	BUY	19	26¢	$5	0xab8dd6…
05-17 22:05:05	Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	Yes	BUY	2,450	5¢	$120	0xa8eeed…
05-08 13:39:15	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	BUY	690	3¢	$20	0xb8556b…
05-07 14:13:02	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	SELL	1,053	2¢	$20	0x08c4b4…
05-07 11:08:00	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	BUY	1,053	2¢	$20	0xda5df0…
04-29 08:09:26	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	20,000	0¢	$20	0x9adef4…
04-23 12:01:54	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-23 12:00 UTC	Down	BUY	4	34¢	$1	0x88631d…
04-22 19:44:10	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	Yes	BUY	2,227	4¢	$98	0x8feb80…
04-22 08:25:12	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	Yes	BUY	2,947	7¢	$196	0x62d0f2…
04-20 19:33:30	will another country conduct military action against iran by april 15 2026	Yes	BUY	7,336	2¢	$156	0xcd7915…
04-20 19:03:22	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-20 19:00 UTC	Up	BUY	7	17¢	$1	0xef4c5e…
04-20 17:28:28	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-20 17:25 UTC	Up	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0xd2b94e…
04-20 17:20:36	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-20 17:20 UTC	Up	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x397ef8…
04-20 16:42:40	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	Yes	SELL	2,802	6¢	$160	0xb542ba…
04-19 22:11:04	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	Yes	BUY	2,802	7¢	$208	0xfe45c1…
04-19 19:21:38	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-19 19:20 UTC	Up	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x0ee6fe…
04-19 17:27:56	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-19 17:25 UTC	Down	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x07be5b…
04-19 15:16:18	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-19 15:15 UTC	Down	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x18bce9…
04-19 14:22:14	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-19 14:20 UTC	Down	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0xf8340d…
04-19 13:16:10	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-19 13:15 UTC	Up	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x02b163…
04-19 13:08:14	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	Yes	SELL	5,000	4¢	$210	0x8cc973…
04-18 18:44:00	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	Yes	BUY	5,000	4¢	$195	0x6e996e…
04-17 11:53:16	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-17 11:50 UTC	Down	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0xb29d50…
04-16 20:34:00	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-16 20:30 UTC	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x783fe5…
04-16 16:38:14	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-16 16:35 UTC	Down	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x5d9b71…
04-16 15:34:04	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-16 15:30 UTC	Down	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x00fdd8…
04-16 15:30:56	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-16 15:25 UTC	Down	SELL	7	62¢	$5	0x4671b6…
04-16 15:28:08	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-16 15:25 UTC	Down	BUY	8	67¢	$5	0x42784b…
04-16 15:27:12	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	18,000	0¢	$90	0x55d66d…
04-14 11:32:55	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-14 11:30 UTC	Up	BUY	6	29¢	$2	0xa6a678…
04-14 09:34:43	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	12,500	1¢	$100	0xe8fc77…
04-09 04:43:17	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-09 04:40 UTC	Up	BUY	133	80¢	$107	0x78b7c4…
04-08 19:31:27	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-08 19:25 UTC	Down	SELL	107	100¢	$107	0x658fdc…
04-08 19:27:15	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-08 19:25 UTC	Down	BUY	109	76¢	$82	0xd0e605…
04-08 19:10:55	kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15	Yes	SELL	2,750	3¢	$82	0x56a414…
04-06 20:08:55	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-06 20:05 UTC	Down	BUY	31	5¢	$2	0xb94fd1…
04-05 00:37:27	kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15	Yes	BUY	2,750	8¢	$220	0x01878c…
04-01 03:54:23	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	55,448	0¢	$223	0x8331bd…
04-01 02:58:53	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	24,738	1¢	$223	0xe455d6…
04-01 02:45:21	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	261	1¢	$3	0xb1529f…
04-01 02:40:25	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	23,432	1¢	$220	0x470271…
04-01 02:15:51	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	17,563	1¢	$223	0xc5e79e…
03-31 17:03:01	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	2,478	1¢	$30	0x4e05ea…
03-31 16:13:33	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-31 16:10 UTC	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x72c9eb…
03-31 16:04:09	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-31 16:00 UTC	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x45e40a…
03-31 13:44:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-31 13:40 UTC	Down	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0x0c00d7…
03-30 04:00:52	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	3,297	7¢	$220	0xed2d33…
03-05 22:54:37	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-05 22:50 UTC	Up	BUY	20	48¢	$9	0x098fd6…
03-05 22:48:25	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-05 22:45 UTC	Up	BUY	17	29¢	$5	0x87382e…
03-05 22:46:31	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-05 22:45 UTC	Up	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0xaad0bc…
03-05 22:45:27	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-05 22:50 UTC	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x0a92c7…
03-05 18:54:29	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-05 18:50 UTC	Up	BUY	1	20¢	$0	0xb89176…
03-05 18:54:27	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-05 18:50 UTC	Up	BUY	4	20¢	$1	0x616c1d…