Scaly-Put — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$98

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

87.2%

Resolved

274

Trades

347

lifetime

Volume

$3.15K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-10

last 05-15 09:31

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 70 days

Categories

Politics

57% 86% -$69

Other

30% 88% -$31

Crypto

10% 75% +$1

Tech

1% 100% +$0

Sports

1% 100% +$0

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-05-15).

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will trump say percent 7 times during meetings with chancellor merz	3	$80	61	61	+0	Yes	-$8	03-03 17:06
will hillary say bill clinton during her epstein testimony	2	$73	39	39	+0	No	+$3	02-27 20:16
will jd vance say six seven in wisconsin on thursday	2	$70	35	35	+0	No	+$0	02-26 18:27
will trump say tariff 6 times during meetings with chancellor merz	3	$70	65	28	+38	Yes	+$6	03-03 17:08
will hillarys remarks not air	2	$69	39	39	+0	Yes	+$1	02-26 18:10
Will Trump say "Rare earth" or "Mineral" during events with Brazilian president?	1	$63	64	0	+64	No	+$1	05-07 18:28
will trump say job 10 times during tech signing event on wednesday	2	$62	38	38	+0	Yes	-$12	03-04 21:13
Will "Influencer" be said during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Experience this week?	1	$62	63	0	+63	No	+$1	05-06 17:39
Will Trump say "Hell" 3+ times during Small Business Summit?	1	$60	61	0	+61	No	+$1	05-05 19:41
Will Donald Trump dance on May 4, 2026?	1	$60	61	0	+61	No	+$1	05-04 20:55
Will Trump say "Peace in the Middle East" this week? (April 27 - May 3)	1	$59	59	0	+59	No	+$0	05-04 05:54
will melania say first lady during fostering the future together event on march 24	1	$56	63	0	+63	No	-$56	03-24 15:08
will trump say thousand or hundred 25 times during memphis roundtable	1	$55	56	0	+56	Yes	+$0	03-23 19:18
will trump say crypto or bitcoin this week march 22	1	$55	55	0	+55	No	+$1	03-22 19:45
will trump say gold during trophy presentation	1	$54	55	0	+55	No	+$1	03-20 15:28
will powell say inflation 50 times during march press conference	3	$53	54	0	+54	Yes	+$2	03-18 19:32
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	1	$52	64	0	+64	No	-$52	05-15 09:31
Will Trump say "Friendship" during Chinese State Banquet?	1	$51	52	0	+52	No	+$1	05-14 16:58
Will Donald Trump dance on May 13, 2026?	1	$51	52	0	+52	No	+$1	05-13 19:56
Will Donald Trump dance on May 12, 2026?	1	$50	50	0	+50	No	+$0	05-12 19:25
Will "Fuck" or "Fucking" be said 20+ times during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Experience this week?	1	$50	51	0	+51	No	+$1	05-13 14:14
Will Trump say "Waiter" or "Waitress" at The Villages on May 1?	2	$50	58	0	+58	No	+$9	05-01 21:22
Will Trump say "NASA" 5+ times during astronaut greeting?	1	$49	50	0	+50	No	+$0	04-29 18:34
will jd vance say manufacturing 2 times during michigan visit 156	1	$48	53	0	+53	Yes	+$4	03-18 15:52
will trump say epic fury during taoiseach events	1	$48	48	0	+48	No	+$0	03-17 22:13
will trump say uk or united kingdom during taoiseach events	1	$47	48	0	+48	Yes	+$1	03-17 16:09
will jensen huang say alpamayo at the nvidia gtc keynote	1	$47	47	0	+47	Yes	+$0	03-16 21:41
will fake clone or fake cloning be said during the valorant masters grand finals	1	$47	47	0	+47	No	+$0	03-16 16:11
will trump say nicki or minaj during womens history month event 533	1	$45	46	0	+46	No	+$1	03-12 20:53
will trump say trump 5 times during ohio visit	1	$44	45	0	+45	No	+$2	03-11 19:08

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-15 09:31:14	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	64	82¢	$52	0x816514…
05-14 16:58:17	Will Trump say "Friendship" during Chinese State Banquet?	No	BUY	52	98¢	$51	0x006be1…
05-13 19:56:34	Will Donald Trump dance on May 13, 2026?	No	BUY	52	99¢	$51	0x7988c0…
05-13 14:14:28	Will "Fuck" or "Fucking" be said 20+ times during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Experience this week?	No	BUY	51	99¢	$50	0x4618a4…
05-12 19:25:59	Will Donald Trump dance on May 12, 2026?	No	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0xe6f691…
05-10 09:33:20	Will Trump say "Autopen" this week?	No	BUY	19	94¢	$18	0x9be471…
05-10 09:33:05	Will Trump say "Scam" or "Fraud" this week?	No	BUY	19	94¢	$18	0x974969…
05-10 09:32:54	Will Trump say "Ruckus" this week?	No	BUY	19	95¢	$18	0x36c212…
05-09 13:04:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xdccbcb…
05-09 10:57:14	Will Donald Trump dance on May 10, 2026?	No	BUY	12	85¢	$10	0xd940b7…
05-09 10:05:16	Will Trump say "Scam" or "Fraud" this week?	No	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0xe2a07c…
05-07 18:28:46	Will Trump say "Rare earth" or "Mineral" during events with Brazilian president?	No	BUY	64	98¢	$63	0x4e7098…
05-06 17:39:26	Will "Influencer" be said during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Experience this week?	No	BUY	63	98¢	$62	0xfa6a69…
05-05 19:41:46	Will Trump say "Hell" 3+ times during Small Business Summit?	No	BUY	61	98¢	$60	0x164fda…
05-04 20:55:12	Will Donald Trump dance on May 4, 2026?	No	BUY	61	99¢	$60	0x109ce2…
05-04 05:54:46	Will Trump say "Peace in the Middle East" this week? (April 27 - May 3)	No	BUY	59	100¢	$59	0x7bb0ee…
05-03 20:20:46	Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?	Yes	BUY	39	100¢	$39	0xe39e20…
05-02 16:42:36	Will MrBeast say "Sponsor" or "Sponsored" during his next video?	No	BUY	39	100¢	$38	0x86cb81…
05-02 10:41:48	Will Donald Trump dance on May 2, 2026?	No	BUY	11	93¢	$10	0xb926f1…
05-02 10:40:58	Will Donald Trump dance on May 2, 2026?	No	BUY	11	95¢	$10	0x51715b…
05-01 21:22:00	Will Trump say "Waiter" or "Waitress" at The Villages on May 1?	No	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0x8fe571…
05-01 21:21:34	Will Trump say "Waiter" or "Waitress" at The Villages on May 1?	No	BUY	52	85¢	$44	0x5331ef…
05-01 18:34:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Down	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xea6f97…
05-01 18:32:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Down	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0x9b7680…
05-01 18:25:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x89608a…
05-01 18:19:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Up	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x9b5463…
05-01 18:15:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xe1ca71…
05-01 18:09:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Down	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0x0b6b2d…
05-01 17:52:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Up	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x18594a…
04-30 15:12:24	Will Trump say "Cocktail" in April?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x7e9c1a…
04-30 15:11:52	Will Trump say "Braggadocious" in April?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x401aaa…
04-30 15:11:40	Will Trump say "Coward" in April?	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x31cd9b…
04-30 15:11:32	Will Trump say "White House Doctor" in April?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xb19302…
04-30 15:11:20	Will Trump say "RINO" or "Republican in Name Only" in April?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x08ee84…
04-29 18:34:36	Will Trump say "NASA" 5+ times during astronaut greeting?	No	BUY	50	99¢	$49	0x9d0bbd…
04-29 16:37:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Down	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0x81286f…
04-29 16:33:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Up	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0xaddc4e…
04-29 16:27:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Up	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0xc2b53a…
04-29 14:25:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Up	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x12cbef…
04-27 10:45:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x5aa505…
04-27 10:39:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x1d2c9c…
04-27 10:34:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Up	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x8f8f55…
04-27 10:24:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Down	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x0af232…
04-27 10:19:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Up	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0xf7a8ff…
04-27 10:14:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Down	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x2b199e…
04-27 10:05:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Down	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x1f1740…
04-27 10:03:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Down	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0xf47706…
03-24 15:08:51	will melania say first lady during fostering the future together event on march 24	Yes	BUY	63	89¢	$56	0x9aec9f…
03-23 19:18:27	will trump say thousand or hundred 25 times during memphis roundtable	Yes	BUY	56	99¢	$55	0x4534ef…
03-22 19:45:29	will trump say crypto or bitcoin this week march 22	No	BUY	55	99¢	$55	0xd24ca1…
03-20 15:28:55	will trump say gold during trophy presentation	No	BUY	55	99¢	$54	0x0de670…
03-18 19:32:19	will powell say inflation 50 times during march press conference	Yes	BUY	2	98¢	$1	0x9fbb32…
03-18 19:32:11	will powell say inflation 50 times during march press conference	Yes	BUY	27	98¢	$26	0xbf62ae…
03-18 19:29:57	will powell say inflation 50 times during march press conference	Yes	BUY	26	96¢	$25	0x26a556…
03-18 15:52:21	will jd vance say manufacturing 2 times during michigan visit 156	Yes	BUY	53	92¢	$48	0xbd2eb8…
03-17 22:13:47	will trump say epic fury during taoiseach events	No	BUY	48	99¢	$48	0x109cdb…
03-17 16:09:47	will trump say uk or united kingdom during taoiseach events	Yes	BUY	48	98¢	$47	0x9753fb…
03-16 21:41:07	will jensen huang say alpamayo at the nvidia gtc keynote	Yes	BUY	47	100¢	$47	0xc32336…
03-16 16:11:59	will fake clone or fake cloning be said during the valorant masters grand finals	No	BUY	47	100¢	$47	0xf630cf…
03-16 10:23:27	will trump say ayatollah or khamenei this week march 15	No	SELL	12	88¢	$11	0x971c41…
03-15 20:05:49	will trump say ayatollah or khamenei this week march 15	No	BUY	12	94¢	$11	0x19e11e…
03-15 20:05:27	will trump say islamic revolutionary guard or iranian revolutionary guard this week march 15	No	BUY	11	97¢	$11	0x208ac2…
03-15 20:05:17	will trump say regime change this week march 15	No	BUY	13	95¢	$12	0x544268…
03-15 20:05:05	will trump say golf or golfer this week march 15	No	BUY	12	97¢	$12	0x0702cd…
03-12 20:53:41	will trump say nicki or minaj during womens history month event 533	No	BUY	46	98¢	$45	0x1fdc6f…
03-11 19:08:59	will trump say trump 5 times during ohio visit	No	BUY	45	96¢	$44	0x14fbef…
03-11 14:28:33	will starmer say mr speaker 20 times during the next prime ministers questions event	Yes	BUY	29	100¢	$29	0xef8338…
03-10 19:42:47	will leavitt say president 66 times during the next white house press briefing 528	Yes	BUY	29	99¢	$28	0xadb0e6…
03-09 07:23:39	will trump say ayatollah or khamenei this week march 8	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0x264074…
03-08 09:46:39	will the announcers say nice jab or good jab 3 times during holloway vs oliveira 2	No	BUY	28	97¢	$27	0xcf5647…
03-06 21:26:03	will trump say salary cap during college football roundtable 533	Yes	BUY	27	99¢	$27	0x9e089d…
03-05 22:06:53	will trump say goat or greatest of all time during inter miami events on thursday	No	BUY	27	98¢	$27	0x7528f8…
03-04 21:25:51	will trump say good friend of mine or friend of mine during tech signing event on wednesday	No	BUY	27	98¢	$26	0x6d27d7…
03-04 21:13:05	will trump say job 10 times during tech signing event on wednesday	Yes	SELL	38	66¢	$25	0xc55cdc…
03-04 21:11:47	will trump say job 10 times during tech signing event on wednesday	Yes	BUY	38	97¢	$37	0x1ae98a…
03-03 17:08:53	will trump say tariff 6 times during meetings with chancellor merz	Yes	BUY	38	96¢	$36	0x1e7dca…
03-03 17:06:37	will trump say percent 7 times during meetings with chancellor merz	No	SELL	47	53¢	$25	0xf74e3f…
03-03 16:45:59	will trump say percent 7 times during meetings with chancellor merz	No	SELL	14	77¢	$11	0xb99726…
03-03 16:27:59	will trump say percent 7 times during meetings with chancellor merz	No	BUY	61	73¢	$44	0xb04540…
03-03 15:53:21	will trump say tariff 6 times during meetings with chancellor merz	No	SELL	28	69¢	$19	0x78f294…
03-01 15:59:53	will trump say fight fight fight this week march 1	No	BUY	25	97¢	$24	0x57511a…
02-28 18:36:55	will trump say oblivion in february	No	BUY	12	98¢	$12	0x9a46c8…
02-28 18:30:01	will trump say tariff 6 times during meetings with chancellor merz	No	BUY	28	54¢	$15	0x916e66…
02-27 22:47:47	will trump say mental institution in corpus christi on friday 628 958	No	BUY	39	99¢	$39	0xd0d55c…
02-27 20:16:09	will hillary say bill clinton during her epstein testimony	No	SELL	39	99¢	$38	0x47903b…
02-26 18:27:18	will hillary say bill clinton during her epstein testimony	No	BUY	39	90¢	$35	0x4ee93e…
02-26 18:27:04	will jd vance say six seven in wisconsin on thursday	No	SELL	35	99¢	$35	0xd1a68d…
02-26 18:17:00	will jd vance say six seven in wisconsin on thursday	No	BUY	35	99¢	$35	0xfc3926…
02-26 18:10:00	will hillarys remarks not air	Yes	SELL	39	92¢	$35	0xc61239…
02-25 18:24:48	will hillarys remarks not air	Yes	BUY	39	88¢	$34	0x885cc0…
02-25 12:03:36	will starmer say mr speaker 15 times during the next prime ministers questions	Yes	BUY	33	99¢	$33	0xd239d4…
02-25 03:44:18	will the 2026 state of the union address last 100 minutes or longer	Yes	BUY	34	98¢	$33	0xe06fdb…
02-22 17:06:34	will trump say democracy this week february 22	No	BUY	14	92¢	$13	0xca93ca…
02-22 16:55:12	will trump say gold medal or gold medallist this week february 22	No	BUY	12	91¢	$11	0x90b270…
02-22 12:12:34	will trump say etc or et cetera this week february 22	No	SELL	9	6¢	$1	0x5f1a3a…
02-22 11:54:56	will trump say drone this week february 22	No	BUY	6	94¢	$6	0x3cc969…
02-22 11:51:54	will trump say etc or et cetera this week february 22	No	BUY	9	87¢	$8	0x8c9d1d…
02-22 11:21:06	will the announcers say triangle or guillotine during strickland vs hernandez	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0xb1b538…
02-19 16:04:56	will trump say tunnel during board of peace events on february 19	No	BUY	23	99¢	$23	0x27d72a…
02-19 09:40:22	will leavitt say fake or hoax during the next white house press briefing	No	BUY	23	98¢	$23	0x5d518b…