Negligible-Landing — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$2

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

58.3%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$308

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-03

last 06-08 10:10

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

51% — —

Politics

34% 100% +$8

Tech

6% — —

Crypto

4% 0% $-6

Sports

4% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

11 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Trump out as President before GTA VI?	No		-4	$-2	50¢	$-2	$-0	05-30 14:35

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
israel x iran ceasefire broken by march 31 2026 312 682	2	$39	43	43	+0	open	—	01-14 11:17
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	2	$27	61	0	+61	open	—	05-01 15:36
will mara corina machado enter venezuela by january 31 859 245	4	$22	19	19	+0	open	—	01-18 21:29
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June?	1	$20	105	0	+105	open	—	05-30 14:30
odds of khamenei out in jan over 20 on friday	2	$15	11	11	+0	open	—	01-15 15:13
will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	2	$15	19	19	+0	open	—	02-18 11:13
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	2	$11	12	12	+0	open	—	01-18 21:29
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	1	$10	40	0	+40	open	—	03-30 15:07
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?	1	$10	53	0	+53	open	—	05-22 11:58
will 45 or more ships transit the strait of hormuz between march 17 23	1	$10	26	0	+26	open	—	03-19 22:58
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?	1	$10	36	0	+36	open	—	04-26 20:12
mwoh slo ger 2026 02 18	1	$10	22	0	+22	open	—	02-18 10:47
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?	1	$10	23	0	+23	open	—	04-14 12:06
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	2	$8	5	5	+0	open	—	05-30 14:35
us strikes iran by january 15 2026 652 612	2	$7	4	4	+0	open	—	01-15 15:14
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	1	$6	0	9	-9	Yes	+$6	04-14 12:03
will slovakia win the mens ice hockey gold medal at the 2026 winter olympics	2	$6	247	0	+247	open	—	02-18 13:53
Will OpenAI file for an IPO by June 5, 2026?	1	$5	0	7	-7	open	—	05-30 14:35
will united states win the mens ice hockey gold medal at the 2026 winter olympics	2	$5	7	7	+0	open	—	02-21 20:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	1	$5	20	0	+20	Down	$-5	05-12 09:27
microstrategy announces 1000 btc purchase june 9 15	1	$5	10	0	+10	open	—	06-08 10:08
mwoh usa slo 2026 02 20	1	$5	42	0	+42	open	—	02-19 19:38
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?	1	$5	18	0	+18	open	—	03-30 15:08
us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by april 30 894	2	$5	3	3	+0	open	—	04-14 12:03
Will Netflix close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?	2	$4	8	8	+0	open	—	01-29 14:15
Will Trump visit China by May 31?	1	$3	33	0	+33	open	—	05-02 13:35
will trump and machado only be photographed together without a clear handshake	1	$3	10	0	+10	open	—	01-15 15:15
will fewer than 5 ships be successfully targeted by iran by march 31	2	$2	2	2	+0	open	—	03-23 21:58
Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?	1	$2	0	5	-5	Yes	+$2	03-19 22:47
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	1	$2	40	0	+40	open	—	03-23 22:01

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-08 10:10:24	will anthropics valuation hit low 800b by december 31 957 743	Yes	BUY	12	16¢	$2	0xe49db9…
06-08 10:08:42	microstrategy announces 1000 btc purchase june 9 15	No	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x922410…
05-30 14:35:34	Trump out as President before GTA VI?	No	SELL	4	49¢	$2	0x34a691…
05-30 14:35:11	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	SELL	5	87¢	$5	0x03159d…
05-30 14:35:04	Will OpenAI file for an IPO by June 5, 2026?	No	SELL	7	77¢	$5	0x643f4a…
05-30 14:30:48	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June?	Yes	BUY	105	19¢	$20	0x22e7d5…
05-22 11:58:00	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?	No	BUY	53	19¢	$10	0xbd42ad…
05-12 09:33:35	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x79463b…
05-12 09:32:51	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0x89bd53…
05-12 09:27:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Up	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x2cc1c0…
05-02 13:35:40	Will Trump visit China by May 31?	No	BUY	33	9¢	$3	0xcfa2a1…
05-01 15:36:22	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	Yes	BUY	44	45¢	$20	0xf04fce…
04-29 20:45:16	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	Yes	BUY	16	45¢	$7	0x0e2843…
04-26 20:16:26	Huzhou: Justina Mikulskyte vs Sofya Lansere	Justina Mikulskyte	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0x1c2e44…
04-26 20:16:08	Madrid Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Elena Rybakina	Qinwen Zheng	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0xaf3181…
04-26 20:12:10	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?	Yes	BUY	36	28¢	$10	0x7d977d…
04-14 12:11:51	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	61¢	$2	0x870723…
04-14 12:06:37	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?	Yes	BUY	23	44¢	$10	0x986b28…
04-14 12:03:35	us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by april 30 894	No	SELL	3	78¢	$3	0x467e3a…
04-14 12:03:29	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	No	SELL	9	73¢	$6	0xa38266…
04-14 12:02:59	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	Yes	SELL	102	0¢	$0	0xea8574…
03-30 15:08:17	US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?	No	BUY	18	28¢	$5	0x4db1ad…
03-30 15:07:03	US forces enter Iran by December 31?	No	BUY	40	25¢	$10	0x1206cd…
03-23 22:02:05	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?	No	BUY	7	28¢	$2	0x609a59…
03-23 22:01:07	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	5¢	$2	0xf69f2a…
03-23 21:58:47	will fewer than 5 ships be successfully targeted by iran by march 31	Yes	SELL	2	90¢	$1	0xb82e11…
03-19 22:58:27	will 45 or more ships transit the strait of hormuz between march 17 23	Yes	BUY	26	39¢	$10	0x7386ca…
03-19 22:56:11	us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by april 30 894	No	BUY	3	60¢	$2	0x0bed9f…
03-19 22:55:29	will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the strait of hormuz on march 31	Yes	BUY	7	27¢	$2	0x216302…
03-19 22:54:07	will fewer than 5 ships be successfully targeted by iran by march 31	Yes	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x3875b9…
03-19 22:48:17	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31?	Yes	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0xc0bdab…
03-19 22:47:07	Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?	No	SELL	5	46¢	$2	0x7ef400…
02-21 20:33:54	will united states win the mens ice hockey gold medal at the 2026 winter olympics	Yes	SELL	7	46¢	$3	0x33cff9…
02-19 19:38:26	mwoh usa slo 2026 02 20	Slovakia	BUY	42	12¢	$5	0x8ac971…
02-18 17:15:16	will sweden win the mens ice hockey gold medal at the 2026 winter olympics	Yes	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x2f0690…
02-18 13:53:30	will slovakia win the mens ice hockey gold medal at the 2026 winter olympics	Yes	BUY	175	3¢	$5	0xd89e59…
02-18 11:13:08	will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	Yes	SELL	19	72¢	$14	0x7f5b62…
02-18 10:47:58	will united states win the mens ice hockey gold medal at the 2026 winter olympics	Yes	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0xf6975c…
02-18 10:47:44	will slovakia win the mens ice hockey gold medal at the 2026 winter olympics	Yes	BUY	72	1¢	$1	0xfdd35c…
02-18 10:47:16	mwoh slo ger 2026 02 18	Slovakia	BUY	22	46¢	$10	0x7e350e…
02-06 10:35:13	will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	Yes	BUY	19	5¢	$1	0xf7512a…
01-29 14:15:16	Will Netflix close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	25¢	$2	0xa9a202…
01-18 21:29:54	will mara corina machado enter venezuela by january 31 859 245	No	SELL	8	83¢	$7	0x19655f…
01-18 21:29:50	Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	Yes	SELL	12	54¢	$6	0x2710af…
01-15 15:15:42	will trump and machado only be photographed together without a clear handshake	Yes	BUY	10	31¢	$3	0x58cbe5…
01-15 15:14:32	us strikes iran by january 15 2026 652 612	No	SELL	4	97¢	$4	0x71acdc…
01-15 15:13:44	odds of khamenei out in jan over 20 on friday	No	SELL	11	93¢	$10	0xe8ee71…
01-15 15:12:30	Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	Yes	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0x415c65…
01-14 11:24:36	us strikes iran by january 15 2026 652 612	No	BUY	4	75¢	$3	0x33973d…
01-14 11:23:28	will solana reach 150 in january 2026	Yes	BUY	3	73¢	$2	0x775fc7…
01-14 11:21:38	Will the US strike Venezuela next?	Yes	BUY	115	1¢	$1	0x5dad6c…
01-14 11:20:38	odds of khamenei out in jan over 20 on friday	No	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0x2a4511…
01-14 11:17:24	israel x iran ceasefire broken by march 31 2026 312 682	Yes	SELL	43	66¢	$29	0x0e6a8a…
01-03 20:52:07	will mara corina machado enter venezuela by january 31 859 245	No	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0x564948…
01-03 20:50:29	Will Netflix close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	25¢	$2	0x7e7a97…
01-03 20:48:29	israel x iran ceasefire broken by march 31 2026 312 682	Yes	BUY	43	23¢	$10	0x69e5bf…
01-03 20:33:53	nicols maduro seen in public by january 5	No	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x866979…
01-03 20:31:23	will mara corina machado enter venezuela by january 31 859 245	Yes	SELL	11	46¢	$5	0x01310e…
01-03 20:30:07	will mara corina machado enter venezuela by january 31 859 245	Yes	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0x088d0e…