Offbeat-Assertion — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$4

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

99.5%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$1.56K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$21

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-13

last 10-13 18:41

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 36 days

Categories

Other

76% 98% -$5

Crypto

23% 100% +$1

Politics

1% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

6 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will alex honnold free solo taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 1 hour and 15 minutes 281	6	$179	100	100	+0	No	+$0	01-24 07:38
elon musk of tweets january 20 january 27 260 279	1	$103	103	0	+103	No	+$0	01-24 07:40
Will Ethereum dip to $600 in May?	1	$50	50	0	+50	No	+$0	05-07 14:00
bitcoin above 74k on april 4	1	$40	40	0	+40	No	+$0	04-03 13:32
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April?	1	$40	40	0	+40	No	+$0	04-30 15:57
Will Ethereum dip to $600 in April?	1	$40	40	0	+40	No	+$0	04-20 11:16
will ethereum dip to 600 in march 2026	1	$30	30	0	+30	No	+$0	03-25 13:37
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 7?	1	$30	30	0	+30	No	+$0	05-07 14:01
bitcoin above 60k on april 4	1	$30	30	0	+30	Yes	+$0	04-03 13:32
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	1	$30	30	0	+30	No	+$0	06-15 12:05
will ethereum dip to 800 in march 2026	1	$30	30	0	+30	No	+$0	03-25 13:37
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May?	1	$30	30	0	+30	No	+$0	05-19 11:05
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?	1	$27	27	0	+27	No	+$0	07-13 11:27
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?	1	$27	27	0	+27	No	+$0	07-24 15:54
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?	1	$20	20	0	+20	No	+$0	07-24 15:54
Will Zelenskyy post 180-199 posts from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	1	$20	20	0	+20	No	+$0	08-09 15:01
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?	1	$20	20	0	+20	No	+$0	07-13 11:27
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C or higher on August 23?	1	$20	20	0	+20	No	+$0	08-22 03:32
Will Zelenskyy post 180-199 posts from August 7 to August 14, 2026?	1	$20	20	0	+20	No	+$0	08-09 15:01
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026?	1	$20	20	0	+20	No	+$0	10-13 14:21
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from September 5 to September 7, 2026?	1	$20	20	0	+20	No	+$0	09-05 07:14
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?	1	$20	20	0	+20	No	+$0	07-24 15:54
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	1	$20	20	0	+20	No	+$0	10-13 14:21
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from September 21 to September 23, 2026?	1	$20	20	0	+20	No	+$0	09-21 14:51
Will Zelenskyy post 200+ posts from August 7 to August 14, 2026?	1	$20	20	0	+20	No	+$0	08-09 15:01
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?	1	$20	20	0	+20	No	+$0	07-24 15:54
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	1	$20	20	0	+20	No	+$0	06-15 12:05
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	2	$20	20	0	+20	No	+$0	10-13 18:41
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026?	1	$20	20	0	+20	No	+$0	10-13 14:21
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C or higher on June 2?	1	$20	20	0	+20	No	+$0	06-02 13:28

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-13 18:41:46	Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x31268b…
10-13 14:21:53	Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x741b3b…
10-13 14:21:44	Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	No	BUY	0	100¢	$0	0xd329f8…
10-13 14:21:23	Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x17c921…
10-13 14:21:22	Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x105685…
09-21 14:52:35	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 21 to September 23, 2026?	No	BUY	10	89¢	$9	0x11861e…
09-21 14:52:05	Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from September 21 to September 23, 2026?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x016fdd…
09-21 14:51:59	Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from September 21 to September 23, 2026?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x54d8ff…
09-05 07:14:48	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 5 to September 7, 2026?	No	BUY	10	81¢	$8	0xd0fe50…
09-05 07:14:42	Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from September 5 to September 7, 2026?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xa2e157…
08-22 03:32:51	Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on August 23?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x608f3b…
08-22 03:32:36	Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C or higher on August 23?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x044cd4…
08-22 03:32:16	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on August 23?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xaee584…
08-10 14:48:22	Will Zelenskyy post 200+ posts from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xd9dba2…
08-09 15:01:31	Will Zelenskyy post 180-199 posts from August 7 to August 14, 2026?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x1bea18…
08-09 15:01:27	Will Zelenskyy post 200+ posts from August 7 to August 14, 2026?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xab121d…
08-09 15:01:18	Will Zelenskyy post 180-199 posts from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x437b73…
08-09 15:01:12	Will Zelenskyy post 200+ posts from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xca0f7e…
07-24 15:54:37	Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x96ae49…
07-24 15:54:28	Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x490789…
07-24 15:54:18	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0x7f233e…
07-24 15:54:09	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x18b9b9…
07-24 15:54:00	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x8ca7d1…
07-13 11:27:59	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x7ae42d…
07-13 11:27:56	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0xe168f2…
07-13 11:27:49	Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x6d07d4…
07-13 11:27:38	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xee6da0…
07-13 11:27:32	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xf0d0cb…
06-21 13:11:04	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 22?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xdeb33d…
06-21 13:10:38	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 22?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xebf28a…
06-21 13:10:05	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 22?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x48845f…
06-21 13:09:43	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 21?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x3d5159…
06-21 13:09:28	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 22?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xf8df13…
06-21 13:09:22	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 22?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x927edd…
06-21 13:09:14	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C or below on June 22?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xe96a56…
06-15 12:06:22	Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0xbe7633…
06-15 12:06:10	Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x9a68f4…
06-15 12:05:55	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x93ce3b…
06-15 12:05:45	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x04e997…
06-15 12:05:39	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x441b81…
06-02 13:29:28	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 3?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x6da73c…
06-02 13:29:21	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 3?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x535fa0…
06-02 13:28:58	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 3?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x98f0f4…
06-02 13:28:47	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 3?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x763d46…
06-02 13:28:44	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 3?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x22296d…
06-02 13:28:30	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 2?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xd049fd…
06-02 13:28:25	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C or higher on June 2?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x33a2a5…
06-02 13:28:19	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 2?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xa5cb79…
05-19 11:06:34	Will Bitcoin dip to $69,000 on May 19?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x299924…
05-19 11:05:53	Will XRP reach $3.00 in May?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x42bc70…
05-07 14:01:17	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 7?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x32f815…
05-07 14:00:47	Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C or higher on May 8?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xd6ecff…
05-07 14:00:26	Will Ethereum dip to $600 in May?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x04c61a…
04-30 15:57:18	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April?	No	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0x2b7ada…
04-20 11:17:30	bitcoin above 84k on april 21	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x200c0f…
04-20 11:17:16	bitcoin above 70k on april 20	Yes	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x7cecf8…
04-20 11:16:44	Will Ethereum dip to $800 in April?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xbcbf15…
04-20 11:16:36	Will Ethereum dip to $600 in April?	No	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0xf01639…
04-03 13:32:29	bitcoin above 60k on april 4	Yes	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xa32df3…
04-03 13:32:25	bitcoin above 74k on april 4	No	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0x1ee3e5…
03-25 13:37:47	will ethereum dip to 600 in march 2026	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xb35069…
03-25 13:37:41	will ethereum dip to 800 in march 2026	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x1f7077…
03-02 15:05:23	us x iran ceasefire by march 2	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0xa00624…
03-02 15:04:21	ethereum above 1400 on march 3	Yes	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x711290…
03-02 15:03:59	mdb quarterly earnings nongaap eps 03 02 2026 1pt47	Yes	BUY	10	95¢	$9	0x07224f…
02-12 15:59:17	elon musk of tweets february 10 february 17 180 199	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x4ca531…
01-24 07:40:14	elon musk of tweets january 20 january 27 260 279	No	BUY	103	100¢	$103	0x6de7cf…
01-24 07:38:38	will alex honnold free solo taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 1 hour and 15 minutes 281	No	SELL	25	90¢	$23	0xd359af…
01-24 07:36:56	will alex honnold free solo taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 1 hour and 15 minutes 281	No	SELL	20	90¢	$18	0xeb8a74…
01-24 07:33:50	will alex honnold free solo taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 1 hour and 15 minutes 281	No	SELL	20	90¢	$18	0xc5b7bc…
01-24 07:33:30	will alex honnold free solo taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 1 hour and 15 minutes 281	No	SELL	15	90¢	$13	0xafaa60…
01-24 07:32:56	will alex honnold free solo taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 1 hour and 15 minutes 281	No	SELL	20	90¢	$18	0x8274a6…
01-24 07:31:40	will alex honnold free solo taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 1 hour and 15 minutes 281	No	BUY	100	90¢	$90	0xb2e3d7…
01-24 06:49:50	fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after january 2026 meeting	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x108b49…
01-13 15:32:39	fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after january 2026 meeting	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x92f95b…