Tall-Midden — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$163

Unrealized P&L

+$131

Hit rate

57.6%

Resolved

122

Trades

1,224

lifetime

Volume

$52.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$43

Open exposure

$254

4 positions

First seen

2026-05-28

last 10-26 06:15

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 52 days

Categories

Tech

47% 62% -$4,619

Crypto

19% 54% -$186

Other

18% 73% +$715

Politics

11% 57% +$299

Sports

6% 62% +$3,627

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

49 active days in 12wk • peak 46 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
will ansem flip pump by december 31 2026 20260702152126830	No	+124	$92	95¢	$117	+$25	07-09 02:38
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	+301	$41	33¢	$101	+$60	07-15 15:11
Will STRC hit $100 by December 31?	Yes	+29	$21	82¢	$24	+$3	09-17 14:09
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	-363	-$54	3¢	$-12	+$43	09-15 17:06

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will a claude mythos model be released by june 15 2026	61	$4.1K	3,867	3,057	+810	Yes	-$1,633	06-09 14:18
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	21	$2.8K	3,757	3,757	+0	No	-$55	06-08 15:10
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	16	$2.3K	1,586	1,790	-204	No	-$560	06-01 16:00
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	18	$2.2K	1,101	1,701	-600	Yes	+$130	06-01 12:23
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	18	$2.2K	1,689	1,785	-97	Yes	+$61	06-08 15:50
gpt 5pt6 released by june 15 2026 343	43	$1.9K	2,207	1,207	+1,000	No	+$865	06-12 14:12
will anthropic extend claude fable 5 paid plan access again by july 19 20260712201937544	43	$1.9K	3,609	0	+3,609	Yes	-$1,878	07-17 01:17
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	27	$1.7K	2,396	1,113	+1,283	Yes	-$823	06-20 01:54
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	15	$1.5K	1,362	1,362	+0	Yes	+$52	06-08 12:49
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 15 and June 21, 2026?	24	$1.4K	1,247	647	+600	No	+$362	06-18 13:48
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?	95	$1.3K	3,421	2,193	+1,228	No	-$731	06-23 15:45
will gpt 6 be released by august 31 2026 778	22	$1.0K	856	856	+0	No	+$47	07-17 06:38
will a claude mythos model be released by july 31 2026	19	$979	986	753	+233	Yes	+$60	06-06 15:54
Will GitHub's longest critical incident in October 2026 be less than 1 hour?	6	$925	347	672	-325	No	+$87	10-13 11:21
LAPTOP FDV above $100M one day after launch?	8	$913	536	586	-50	Yes	+$92	09-10 01:10
laptop fdv above 1pt5b one day after launch	8	$849	509	509	+0	No	-$24	09-10 01:38
LAPTOP FDV above $250M one day after launch?	15	$816	618	619	-2	Yes	+$88	09-09 14:22
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 7, 2026?	7	$786	859	0	+859	No	+$73	07-07 13:48
laptop fdv above 1b one day after launch	8	$780	536	536	+0	No	-$41	09-10 01:37
Will Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look get between 20 and 22 million views on week 1?	18	$735	458	713	-255	Yes	+$82	09-02 19:28
Will Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look get less than 20 million views on week 1?	9	$722	405	612	-207	No	+$160	09-02 18:37
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	9	$688	4,232	0	+4,232	Yes	+$3,544	06-23 15:28
will lamine yamal score 2 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260610223932022	13	$656	579	571	+8	No	+$70	07-11 14:19
will laptop flip trump by december 31 2026	13	$606	893	0	+893	Yes	+$287	09-09 13:27
Will Vinted: Pre-loved marketplace be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 23?	12	$604	425	425	+0	Yes	+$22	10-21 00:11
will lionel messi score 9 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup	21	$562	897	448	+448	No	-$4	07-12 11:24
GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026?	8	$559	295	295	+0	No	+$24	06-06 12:04
will microstrategy announce a bitcoin purchase june 2 8	7	$511	388	188	+200	Yes	+$49	06-08 03:14
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	3	$491	285	285	+0	Yes	+$37	06-12 14:13
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	25	$488	2,701	2,701	+0	No	-$209	06-12 15:27

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-26 06:15:14	Will Polymarket mindshare hit 75% by December 31?	Yes	SELL	159	39¢	$62	0x31fcc1…
10-24 07:27:47	Will Muse from Meta be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 30?	Yes	SELL	19	34¢	$6	0xb17dec…
10-24 02:53:09	will muse from meta be 1 free app in the us apple app store on october 30	Yes	BUY	19	26¢	$5	0x1f8144…
10-23 05:12:41	Will Muse from Meta be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 23?	No	SELL	50	96¢	$48	0xf22df6…
10-21 19:23:17	GitHub.com critical incident by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	77	97¢	$75	0x32908b…
10-21 19:23:17	GitHub.com critical incident by November 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	18	97¢	$17	0x1b5ee0…
10-21 16:04:26	GitHub.com critical incident by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	18	86¢	$15	0x69ac11…
10-21 16:04:11	Another crypto hack over $100m by October 31?	No	SELL	16	91¢	$15	0x2cc1c7…
10-21 14:47:05	Will Polymarket mindshare hit 75% by December 31?	Yes	BUY	84	51¢	$43	0x44d3f9…
10-21 14:46:33	Will Polymarket mindshare hit 80% by December 31?	Yes	SELL	117	37¢	$43	0x55e7e7…
10-21 10:30:30	Will STRC hit $100 by October 31?	No	SELL	12	79¢	$9	0xaed551…
10-21 01:24:11	Another GTA VI trailer released by November 30?	Yes	BUY	422	9¢	$38	0x181745…
10-21 00:56:15	Will Vinted: Pre-loved marketplace be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 23?	Yes	SELL	19	10¢	$2	0x48686b…
10-21 00:45:36	Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85% by December 31?	Yes	BUY	230	11¢	$25	0xc04632…
10-21 00:13:56	Will Polymarket mindshare hit 75% by December 31?	Yes	BUY	75	53¢	$40	0x08f426…
10-21 00:12:29	Will Polymarket mindshare hit 80% by December 31?	Yes	BUY	117	36¢	$42	0x62c93b…
10-21 00:11:36	Will Vinted: Pre-loved marketplace be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 23?	No	SELL	277	70¢	$193	0x76fec7…
10-20 08:01:47	Another critical Cloudflare incident by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x355d3f…
10-20 07:52:41	Another critical Cloudflare incident by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0xcf7910…
10-20 06:47:19	Another critical Cloudflare incident by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	37	100¢	$37	0x0778ed…
10-20 06:47:08	Another critical Cloudflare incident by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	100¢	$40	0x0c87bf…
10-20 06:37:02	Another critical Cloudflare incident by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0x3f9de7…
10-20 06:36:32	Another critical Cloudflare incident by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x7c2784…
10-20 04:25:00	Another critical Cloudflare incident by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	18	72¢	$13	0x1246cf…
10-20 04:24:38	Another crypto hack over $100m by October 31?	No	SELL	15	87¢	$13	0x9f5370…
10-20 03:33:08	Another critical Cloudflare incident by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	19	81¢	$15	0xca3dc2…
10-20 03:32:20	Another crypto hack over $100m by October 31?	No	SELL	17	92¢	$16	0x9dbf4f…
10-20 03:30:29	Another critical Cloudflare incident by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	77	81¢	$63	0x531a95…
10-20 03:23:50	Another critical Cloudflare incident by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	85¢	$10	0x68f8a1…
10-20 03:23:44	Another critical Cloudflare incident by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	81¢	$10	0xfcfdc0…
10-20 03:23:21	Another crypto hack over $100m by October 31?	No	SELL	91	92¢	$84	0xa7529e…
10-19 22:16:20	Will Muse from Meta be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 23?	No	SELL	26	89¢	$23	0xd98a56…
10-19 12:30:05	Will Vinted: Pre-loved marketplace be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 23?	No	BUY	19	69¢	$13	0x8038b3…
10-19 09:17:24	Will Vinted: Pre-loved marketplace be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 23?	No	BUY	19	68¢	$13	0x82e1d6…
10-19 07:19:32	Will Vinted: Pre-loved marketplace be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 23?	No	BUY	59	74¢	$44	0xac5538…
10-19 07:16:33	Will Vinted: Pre-loved marketplace be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 23?	No	BUY	9	72¢	$6	0x97ec27…
10-19 07:15:41	Will Muse from Meta be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 23?	No	SELL	288	27¢	$76	0x611eae…
10-19 06:38:26	Will Vinted: Pre-loved marketplace be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 23?	No	SELL	148	81¢	$120	0xfbce65…
10-19 04:29:54	Will Vinted: Pre-loved marketplace be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 23?	Yes	BUY	19	10¢	$2	0xa0d5cf…
10-19 04:28:53	Will Muse from Meta be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 23?	No	BUY	288	17¢	$50	0x5960f6…
10-19 04:05:23	Will Vinted: Pre-loved marketplace be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 23?	No	BUY	128	62¢	$79	0x1d9892…
10-19 00:49:23	Will Vinted: Pre-loved marketplace be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 23?	No	BUY	48	66¢	$31	0x8d2cfe…
10-18 10:49:27	Will Vinted: Pre-loved marketplace be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 23?	No	BUY	19	67¢	$13	0xb91111…
10-18 10:22:59	Will Vinted: Pre-loved marketplace be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 23?	No	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0xf3493c…
10-18 10:22:33	Will GitHub's longest critical incident in October 2026 be at least 12 hours?	No	SELL	9	89¢	$8	0x7b1e5c…
10-18 10:10:59	Will Vinted: Pre-loved marketplace be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 23?	No	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x2a7b61…
10-18 10:08:53	Will Vinted: Pre-loved marketplace be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 23?	No	BUY	113	73¢	$83	0x65c3a9…
10-18 06:32:05	Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 60 and 80 million views on week 1?	Yes	BUY	36	55¢	$20	0x26ebfe…
10-18 06:31:39	Will CZ post 40-59 posts from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	No	SELL	21	96¢	$20	0x77eea1…
10-18 05:20:36	Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 60 and 80 million views on week 1?	Yes	BUY	4	53¢	$2	0x4dba3d…
10-18 05:19:26	Will Muse from Meta be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 23?	No	BUY	19	76¢	$14	0x5f577c…
10-18 05:18:57	Will CZ post 40-59 posts from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	No	SELL	8	95¢	$8	0xd7d469…
10-18 05:11:20	Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 60 and 80 million views on week 1?	Yes	BUY	100	53¢	$53	0x6b4005…
10-18 05:09:53	Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 80 and 100 million views on week 1?	Yes	BUY	183	2¢	$5	0x434b41…
10-18 05:09:53	Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 80 and 100 million views on week 1?	Yes	BUY	17	2¢	$0	0x34ac1b…
10-18 05:01:15	Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 60 and 80 million views on week 1?	Yes	BUY	19	53¢	$10	0xb11327…
10-18 04:55:27	Will Muse from Meta be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 23?	No	BUY	19	55¢	$10	0x85aed1…
10-18 04:47:56	Will Muse from Meta be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 23?	No	BUY	19	54¢	$10	0x8e8ddb…
10-18 04:25:51	Will STRC hit $100 by October 31?	No	BUY	2	79¢	$1	0x793d72…
10-18 04:24:35	Will Muse from Meta be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 23?	No	BUY	19	54¢	$10	0x758be2…
10-18 04:24:15	Will CZ post 40-59 posts from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	No	SELL	12	95¢	$11	0xf91f23…
10-18 04:09:21	Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 60 and 80 million views on week 1?	Yes	BUY	39	50¢	$20	0xc3a230…
10-18 02:38:36	Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 60 and 80 million views on week 1?	Yes	BUY	11	52¢	$6	0xef481c…
10-18 02:33:15	Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 60 and 80 million views on week 1?	Yes	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x06efbb…
10-18 02:20:50	Will STRC hit $100 by October 31?	No	BUY	10	79¢	$8	0x256eda…
10-18 02:18:26	Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 60 and 80 million views on week 1?	Yes	BUY	37	54¢	$20	0x929343…
10-18 02:18:03	Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 60 and 80 million views on week 1?	Yes	BUY	19	53¢	$10	0xbd1ede…
10-17 06:13:23	Will CZ post 40-59 posts from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	41	90¢	$37	0x5d021c…
10-14 09:02:38	another crypto hack over 100m by october 31 20261012	No	BUY	20	75¢	$15	0xac721b…
10-14 08:12:04	Will there be 4 or more Codex weekly usage limit resets in the week of October 12?	No	BUY	33	73¢	$24	0x694e37…
10-14 07:56:55	will the openai spy be accused of working for china by december 31 20261014120000000	No	SELL	19	89¢	$17	0x895311…
10-14 07:56:43	will the openai spy be accused of working for saudi arabia by december 31 20261014120000000	No	SELL	19	90¢	$17	0x83d683…
10-14 06:58:05	will the openai spy be accused of working for google by december 31 20261014120000010	No	SELL	9	93¢	$8	0x5dfb5d…
10-14 06:52:40	will the openai spy be accused of working for google by december 31 20261014120000010	No	SELL	10	93¢	$9	0xfc77ad…
10-14 02:26:02	will the openai spy be accused of working for google by december 31 20261014120000010	No	BUY	19	75¢	$14	0xbca39a…
10-14 02:19:43	will the openai spy be accused of working for china by december 31 20261014120000000	No	BUY	19	51¢	$10	0x5619a6…
10-14 02:19:34	will the openai spy be accused of working for saudi arabia by december 31 20261014120000000	No	BUY	19	10¢	$2	0x9bd5d6…
10-14 02:19:20	Will there be exactly 2 ChatGPT outages in October 2026?	No	SELL	82	98¢	$80	0x08963e…
10-14 00:00:30	another crypto hack over 100m by october 31 20261012	No	BUY	119	82¢	$97	0x3327d5…
10-13 13:37:32	Will GitHub's longest critical incident in October 2026 be at least 12 hours?	No	SELL	5	87¢	$4	0xd3639a…
10-13 11:21:35	Will GitHub's longest critical incident in October 2026 be less than 1 hour?	No	SELL	355	100¢	$354	0xd37dde…
10-13 11:15:31	Will GitHub's longest critical incident in October 2026 be less than 1 hour?	No	SELL	200	100¢	$199	0xde5cae…
10-13 04:15:44	Will there be exactly 3 Codex weekly usage limit resets in the week of October 12?	Yes	SELL	19	39¢	$7	0x28c140…
10-13 04:14:23	Will there be exactly 2 Codex weekly usage limit resets in the week of October 12?	Yes	SELL	25	37¢	$9	0x55492e…
10-13 01:55:59	Will there be exactly 2 Codex weekly usage limit resets in the week of October 12?	Yes	BUY	6	31¢	$2	0x22f445…
10-13 01:50:33	Will there be exactly 3 Codex weekly usage limit resets in the week of October 12?	Yes	BUY	19	37¢	$7	0x235d30…
10-13 01:50:18	Will there be exactly 2 Codex weekly usage limit resets in the week of October 12?	Yes	BUY	19	27¢	$5	0x572d8b…
10-13 01:50:00	Will there be exactly 2 ChatGPT outages in October 2026?	No	SELL	15	97¢	$15	0xc73352…
10-12 13:32:59	Will there be exactly 2 ChatGPT outages in October 2026?	No	SELL	13	97¢	$13	0x678ccd…
10-12 07:13:28	Will GitHub's longest critical incident in October 2026 be less than 1 hour?	No	SELL	49	98¢	$48	0x2f28a1…
10-12 04:09:08	Will GitHub's longest critical incident in October 2026 be between 1 and 3 hours?	No	SELL	60	99¢	$59	0x19a1e9…
10-12 04:03:51	Will GitHub's longest critical incident in October 2026 be at least 12 hours?	No	BUY	14	72¢	$10	0x62d635…
10-11 08:46:18	Will there be 4 or more Codex weekly usage limit resets in the week of October 5?	No	BUY	7	93¢	$7	0x72c9ff…
10-11 08:46:03	Will GitHub's longest critical incident in October 2026 be between 1 and 3 hours?	No	SELL	70	99¢	$69	0xfc7409…
10-10 15:36:37	Will GitHub's longest critical incident in October 2026 be less than 1 hour?	No	SELL	30	98¢	$29	0x3bbfd8…
10-10 03:55:01	Will more than 585,000 Chinook pass Bonneville Dam by October 31?	Yes	SELL	19	62¢	$12	0xb2951c…
10-08 13:45:27	Will more than 585,000 Chinook pass Bonneville Dam by October 31?	Yes	BUY	19	51¢	$10	0x5b9ab3…
10-08 13:17:26	ChatGPT Outage by October 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xbbdffc…
10-08 13:17:21	ChatGPT Outage by October 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	30	100¢	$30	0x5117d0…
10-07 16:26:53	Will GitHub's longest critical incident in October 2026 be less than 1 hour?	No	SELL	38	99¢	$38	0x860773…