Cheap-Mallard — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$791

Unrealized P&L

-$110

Hit rate

80.7%

Resolved

369

Trades

1,393

lifetime

Volume

$95.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$68

Open exposure

$226

6 positions

First seen

2026-01-06

last 11-06 06:59

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 160 days

Categories

Other

50% 34% +$501

Politics

31% 54% -$1,553

Crypto

18% 31% -$241

Tech

0% 100% +$555

Sports

0% 0% -$54

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

76 active days in 12wk • peak 45 trades/day

Open positions (6) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	+160	$77	92¢	$148	+$71	09-21 13:41
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026?	Yes	+407	$161	8¢	$31	-$130	11-06 06:59
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	Yes	+225	$10	11¢	$24	+$14	11-04 16:10
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	+160	$79	8¢	$12	-$67	10-29 10:16
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	Yes	+500	$5	2¢	$11	+$6	11-04 16:11
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from November 5 to November 7, 2026?	Yes	+62	$5	0¢	$0	-$5	11-05 15:10

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
netanyahu out by march 31 854	4	$7.6K	3,864	3,864	+0	No	+$83	03-23 07:22
Paradex FDV above $300M one day after launch?	16	$5.7K	2,964	2,964	+0	No	+$82	03-05 16:54
cricipl pun guj 2026 03 31	5	$4.8K	2,458	2,457	+1	Punjab Kings	+$68	03-31 17:51
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	13	$4.4K	2,215	2,215	+0	No	+$29	03-29 11:02
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	7	$4.1K	2,200	2,200	+0	No	+$13	03-30 07:04
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?	14	$3.6K	1,900	1,900	+0	No	+$1	03-03 16:21
will iran conduct a military action against israel on march 19 2026 486	15	$3.6K	2,415	1,853	+562	No	+$322	03-23 15:26
will paradex launch a token on march 5	4	$3.3K	1,703	1,703	-0	Yes	$0	03-05 09:19
Zama FDV above $2B one day after launch?	3	$3.1K	1,587	1,587	+0	No	+$45	02-03 04:03
us strikes iran by january 24 2026 318	17	$3.1K	1,571	1,571	+0	No	+$17	01-24 20:56
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	5	$2.5K	2,574	2,574	+0	Yes	-$2,264	04-07 23:17
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	9	$2.1K	1,812	1,812	+0	No	+$106	09-25 15:48
Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 12-October 18?	2	$2.0K	1,047	1,047	+0	Yes	+$72	10-22 15:03
us strikes iran by february 23 2026 678 563	1	$1.9K	1,905	0	+1,905	No	+$32	02-23 16:23
us strikes iran by february 22 2026	1	$1.8K	1,873	0	+1,873	No	+$32	02-22 15:28
will russia capture hryshyne by march 15 2026 338	1	$1.8K	1,801	0	+1,801	Yes	+$50	03-13 17:00
Zama FDV above $500M one day after launch?	6	$1.7K	1,792	0	+1,792	No	+$69	02-03 07:00
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by September 30?	23	$1.7K	5,543	5,543	+0	No	+$103	10-02 03:40
will bruno mars have the greatest number of monthly spotify listeners this month	1	$1.6K	1,616	0	+1,616	Yes	+$8	02-27 12:47
us strikes iran by february 26 2026 368	1	$1.6K	1,608	0	+1,608	No	+$3	02-27 02:40
Sentient FDV above $1B one day after launch?	1	$1.5K	1,517	0	+1,517	No	+$16	01-23 20:01
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026?	19	$1.4K	11,903	11,903	+0	No	-$498	11-03 05:29
us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	1	$1.3K	1,331	0	+1,331	No	+$21	02-20 09:42
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	8	$1.2K	756	756	+0	Yes	-$3	06-15 14:09
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 15?	1	$979	980	0	+980	No	+$1	10-16 06:00
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	13	$870	1,154	1,154	+0	No	-$184	10-23 20:00
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	13	$855	1,101	1,101	+0	open	—	11-01 13:16
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	4	$737	440	440	+0	open	—	11-03 13:44
0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 31 20260626172559970	13	$645	880	880	+0	Yes	+$589	08-04 15:35
cricipl raj che 2026 03 30	3	$620	605	105	+500	Rajasthan Royals	+$71	03-30 15:03

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-06 06:59:27	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	180	8¢	$14	0x65c4ac…
11-06 06:56:01	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from November 5 to November 7, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	23¢	$23	0x7719fc…
11-06 06:55:22	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	23¢	$23	0x791214…
11-06 05:05:34	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	188	8¢	$15	0x5e6e9b…
11-05 15:15:01	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,250	0¢	$4	0x770640…
11-05 15:10:06	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from November 5 to November 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	47	8¢	$4	0x574b1f…
11-05 15:09:40	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from November 5 to November 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	7¢	$1	0x534622…
11-05 13:03:12	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,333	0¢	$4	0x448446…
11-05 05:56:06	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from November 5 to November 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	19¢	$19	0x8db76b…
11-05 05:52:52	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	283	11¢	$30	0x5938e5…
11-05 05:50:04	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	160	10¢	$16	0x494fd3…
11-05 05:44:40	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	633	1¢	$4	0x5f3a5d…
11-05 05:43:30	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	175	41¢	$72	0x4de9cd…
11-05 05:40:48	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	205	10¢	$20	0x9f9836…
11-05 05:40:09	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	52	10¢	$5	0xe9ad10…
11-05 02:22:18	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	69	6¢	$4	0xe505b5…
11-05 02:20:21	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	179	6¢	$10	0x33f7ad…
11-05 02:20:09	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	469	1¢	$3	0xf5effb…
11-04 16:57:48	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	10¢	$1	0x2864a3…
11-04 16:57:01	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	27	10¢	$3	0x496382…
11-04 16:52:16	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	139	34¢	$47	0xd54293…
11-04 16:40:37	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	139	36¢	$50	0x9bed3e…
11-04 16:40:19	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	49¢	$10	0x562ddb…
11-04 16:20:09	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from November 2 to November 4, 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	1¢	$7	0x30912d…
11-04 16:16:37	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from November 2 to November 4, 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	1¢	$0	0xf1c40e…
11-04 16:16:21	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from November 2 to November 4, 2026?	Yes	BUY	255	1¢	$4	0xa8fc74…
11-04 16:11:34	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0x4feb7c…
11-04 16:10:54	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	225	4¢	$10	0x709d39…
11-04 15:49:12	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0x085dbf…
11-04 15:46:51	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	122	41¢	$50	0x04e029…
11-04 15:45:09	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	32	41¢	$13	0x0a5048…
11-04 15:23:25	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,534	8¢	$123	0x6690c9…
11-04 14:35:01	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	53	9¢	$5	0x5777a4…
11-04 14:34:34	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	282	1¢	$3	0xe98728…
11-04 14:34:19	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x5649fa…
11-03 13:55:06	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	588	17¢	$100	0x4c088b…
11-03 13:44:57	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	340	88¢	$299	0xb012d2…
11-03 13:42:51	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	312	16¢	$50	0x5ddf24…
11-03 13:41:12	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	62	16¢	$10	0x2f5d3b…
11-03 13:39:54	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	125	16¢	$20	0xa1fa3c…
11-03 13:39:45	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	44	16¢	$7	0x397fe9…
11-03 13:39:21	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	100	87¢	$87	0x6d2dc9…
11-03 13:35:57	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	294	17¢	$50	0xab0065…
11-03 13:27:06	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	108	12¢	$13	0x98b66e…
11-03 13:21:19	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?	Yes	SELL	79	81¢	$63	0x60c593…
11-03 05:47:09	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?	Yes	BUY	79	80¢	$63	0x0f74fd…
11-03 05:29:42	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026?	Yes	SELL	11,456	0¢	$12	0xa33aa5…
11-03 04:31:19	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 3?	Yes	SELL	77	6¢	$5	0x1bc99d…
11-03 04:31:04	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?	Yes	SELL	78	60¢	$47	0xdf464d…
11-03 04:22:10	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	341	80¢	$272	0xb4bcc3…
11-03 04:21:51	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	99	79¢	$79	0xc1e6b3…
11-03 03:57:54	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?	Yes	BUY	78	51¢	$40	0x350d87…
11-03 03:49:49	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 3?	Yes	BUY	77	13¢	$10	0x5f41e0…
11-02 16:37:55	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,280	3¢	$38	0x4842f5…
11-02 16:37:13	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	3¢	$1	0x5647f9…
11-02 09:35:27	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026?	No	SELL	447	98¢	$439	0x4efa73…
11-02 09:17:37	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026?	No	BUY	447	98¢	$439	0x755c62…
11-01 13:25:48	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3,333	4¢	$150	0x883c24…
11-01 13:16:52	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	103	25¢	$26	0xb20342…
11-01 13:16:34	US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	987	42¢	$413	0x44ab78…
11-01 09:16:24	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	661	4¢	$24	0x7d12df…
11-01 06:21:13	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,000	4¢	$76	0xc4ea89…
11-01 06:12:45	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,256	4¢	$50	0x80adaa…
11-01 05:45:43	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	598	6¢	$36	0x06755b…
11-01 05:45:42	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	64	6¢	$4	0x52026e…
11-01 05:43:19	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	6¢	$6	0xdb51a3…
11-01 05:28:51	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	71	6¢	$4	0x2f5b19…
11-01 05:24:21	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	6¢	$0	0x74ade0…
11-01 05:09:28	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	333	6¢	$20	0x5b6878…
10-30 12:56:34	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $30M?	No	BUY	180	5¢	$9	0x4cc70f…
10-30 12:55:54	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $40M?	No	BUY	83	24¢	$20	0x355768…
10-30 07:15:22	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	425	3¢	$14	0x5ffeb6…
10-29 10:19:13	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	400	5¢	$20	0x58759e…
10-29 10:17:20	Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 19-October 25?	Yes	SELL	3	0¢	$0	0x8a902d…
10-29 10:16:58	Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	14¢	$0	0xbcbed7…
10-29 10:16:41	Military action against King Khalid International Airport (RUH) by October 31?	No	SELL	19	83¢	$16	0xb2e235…
10-29 10:16:14	Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 19-October 25?	Yes	SELL	18	98¢	$18	0xdaffbc…
10-29 10:15:23	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	340	5¢	$17	0xe47511…
10-29 08:11:32	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	370	7¢	$26	0x404269…
10-29 08:10:31	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	629	6¢	$38	0x641b5d…
10-29 08:02:29	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	103	29¢	$30	0x1019bc…
10-29 05:38:43	Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 19-October 25?	Yes	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0x740d13…
10-28 15:41:46	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 26 to October 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	420	0¢	$2	0xe377c9…
10-27 14:39:41	US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	235	36¢	$86	0x56b960…
10-27 14:02:20	US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	36¢	$1	0x316cdf…
10-27 13:55:06	US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	38	36¢	$14	0xd335c1…
10-27 13:04:09	US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	82	37¢	$30	0x0ffc76…
10-27 10:21:47	US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	23	36¢	$9	0x8c56f8…
10-27 06:46:41	US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	36¢	$5	0x837f74…
10-27 06:29:54	US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	36¢	$9	0xfcf53e…
10-27 06:22:47	US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	133	36¢	$48	0x6cce39…
10-27 05:35:09	US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	269	37¢	$99	0x6b931d…
10-26 16:21:36	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	28¢	$6	0x0fef85…
10-26 16:20:54	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	24¢	$1	0x30663e…
10-26 15:52:05	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 24 to October 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xb2aa08…
10-26 15:28:00	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 24 to October 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	80	5¢	$4	0x5bd604…
10-26 15:27:23	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 24 to October 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x80486a…
10-26 15:27:05	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 24 to October 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	98	5¢	$5	0x94d203…
10-26 15:25:59	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 24 to October 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	5¢	$0	0xc708f5…
10-26 14:43:38	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0x516e39…