Elastic-Threat — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$308

Unrealized P&L

+$13

Hit rate

42.9%

Resolved

137

Trades

879

lifetime

Volume

$10.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$12

Open exposure

$157

5 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-14 02:23

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 69 days

Categories

Other

57% 22% -$282

Politics

35% 33% +$56

Sports

6% 29% -$126

Crypto

1% 33% +$53

Tech

0% 0% -$10

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

9 active days in 12wk • peak 15 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Papertrade launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	+114	$16	89¢	$102	+$86	09-06 14:33
Will Extended launch a token by December 31 2026?	No	+473	$75	6¢	$29	-$46	09-30 17:56
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?	No	+104	$25	16¢	$17	-$8	09-30 17:58
Will Jumper launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	+29	$5	18¢	$5	+$0	09-22 23:49
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	+102	$23	4¢	$4	-$19	09-30 17:55

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Backpack launch a token by March 31?	34	$599	1,817	500	+1,317	Yes	-$173	02-22 19:13
will trump meet with emmanuel macron in january 2026	25	$571	708	588	+120	No	+$377	01-22 21:54
will trump meet with giorgia meloni in january 2026	29	$483	602	442	+160	No	+$372	01-22 21:59
will trump meet with friedrich merz in january 2026	19	$467	499	434	+65	No	+$330	01-28 16:11
Will Opinion launch a token by March 31, 2026?	34	$419	6,123	595	+5,528	Yes	-$227	03-01 15:36
DeepSeek V4 released by April 30?	24	$399	1,589	0	+1,589	Yes	-$399	04-22 15:42
Will Extended launch a token by September 30 2026?	23	$388	434	250	+184	No	+$278	09-06 14:31
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	19	$346	673	673	+0	No	+$36	07-19 21:43
Will EdgeX launch a token by March 31, 2026?	27	$319	1,124	180	+944	Yes	-$124	03-18 01:26
will cambria launch a token by september 30 2026	22	$314	971	140	+831	No	+$709	09-22 23:39
will trump talk to emmanuel macron in january	20	$283	2,470	500	+1,970	Yes	-$253	01-28 19:41
Will OpenSea launch a token by March 31, 2026?	4	$269	346	173	+173	No	+$212	02-16 23:19
will trump talk to friedrich merz in january	21	$268	1,695	811	+884	Yes	-$252	01-28 16:06
Will Solstice launch a token by June 30 2026?	26	$265	6,538	0	+6,538	Yes	-$265	05-23 19:40
will 30 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026	5	$254	559	359	+200	No	+$408	07-18 14:56
will trump meet with volodymyr zelenskyy in january 2026	14	$250	457	227	+230	Yes	+$84	01-20 23:21
DeepSeek V4 released by May 15?	13	$190	1,559	0	+1,559	Yes	-$190	04-22 15:32
will aztec launch a token by march 31 2026	43	$183	2,850	0	+2,850	Yes	-$183	01-24 18:13
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	10	$182	778	0	+778	No	-$182	06-16 18:36
deepseek v4 released by march 31 446 353 924 266 292	9	$168	370	210	+160	No	+$249	03-29 19:09
will squid launch a token by december 31 2026	15	$149	1,341	0	+1,341	Yes	-$149	08-01 12:53
fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 team to advance	6	$149	209	101	+108	Spain	-$25	07-19 21:55
will trump meet with joseph aoun in july 2026 20260626153701915	24	$133	2,434	0	+2,434	Yes	-$133	07-20 02:25
will trump meet with keir starmer in january 2026	9	$132	239	109	+130	No	+$132	01-21 18:46
will cambria launch a token by december 31 2026	14	$123	1,349	0	+1,349	Yes	-$123	10-14 02:23
will the total domestic gross for avatar fire and ash be less than 400m by january 31	3	$121	129	78	+51	Yes	+$72	01-20 23:24
Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch?	4	$117	126	75	+51	No	+$68	02-24 23:58
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	20	$107	6,948	0	+6,948	No	-$107	07-12 02:37
Will Solstice launch a token by September 30 2026?	15	$100	1,663	0	+1,663	Yes	-$100	05-03 10:43
will trump meet with giorgia meloni in july 2026 20260626153701912	9	$96	527	31	+496	Yes	-$50	07-18 13:33

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-14 02:23:37	Will Cambria launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	130	12¢	$15	0x1aa37c…
09-30 18:00:00	Will Ethos launch a token by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	41	5¢	$2	0xc7fec1…
09-30 17:59:35	Will Ethos launch a token by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	222	4¢	$10	0xd2ecff…
09-30 17:59:09	Will Ethos launch a token by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	80	4¢	$3	0x28b531…
09-30 17:58:39	Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?	No	BUY	104	24¢	$25	0x8ce0be…
09-30 17:58:21	Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in 2026?	No	BUY	52	29¢	$15	0x35cb5f…
09-30 17:56:09	Will Extended launch a token by December 31 2026?	No	BUY	66	30¢	$20	0xeb5b54…
09-30 17:55:12	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	29	21¢	$6	0xab9bb1…
09-30 17:54:57	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	No	BUY	143	1¢	$1	0x58c0e7…
09-30 17:52:41	Will Ethos launch a token by October 15, 2026?	No	BUY	199	4¢	$8	0x52ebfe…
09-30 17:52:15	Will Ethos launch a token by October 8, 2026?	No	BUY	112	8¢	$9	0x02c510…
09-22 23:49:47	Will Jumper launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	29	17¢	$5	0xd888d3…
09-22 23:49:14	Will Extended launch a token by December 31 2026?	No	BUY	32	25¢	$8	0xac82da…
09-22 23:48:46	Will Cambria launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	15	14¢	$2	0x9b3943…
09-22 23:47:05	Will Ethos launch a token by October 8, 2026?	No	BUY	42	12¢	$5	0xf0cd88…
09-22 23:44:47	Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in September 2026?	No	BUY	371	1¢	$5	0xe5a5b0…
09-22 23:41:28	Will Ethos launch a token by October 8, 2026?	No	BUY	121	8¢	$10	0x41131b…
09-22 23:40:38	Will Cambria launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	139	6¢	$9	0xa86d5f…
09-22 23:39:58	Will Cambria launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	50	90¢	$45	0xb0fe4a…
09-19 11:27:21	Will Trump meet with Andy Burnham in September 2026?	No	BUY	153	3¢	$5	0x7111bc…
09-19 11:27:06	Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in September 2026?	No	BUY	104	5¢	$5	0x743d2e…
09-19 11:26:54	Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in September 2026?	No	BUY	81	15¢	$12	0xbc55a8…
09-19 11:24:38	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	29	17¢	$5	0xea57ad…
09-19 11:24:17	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	No	BUY	83	6¢	$5	0x0c1b01…
09-19 11:23:17	Will Cambria launch a token by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	398	5¢	$18	0x29efca…
09-06 14:52:06	Will Ethos launch a token by October 8, 2026?	No	BUY	47	11¢	$5	0xc4f8ba…
09-06 14:45:19	Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in September 2026?	No	BUY	164	11¢	$18	0x516b9b…
09-06 14:45:01	Will Trump meet with Andy Burnham in September 2026?	No	BUY	199	8¢	$16	0x6484f6…
09-06 14:40:51	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	44	27¢	$12	0x457677…
09-06 14:40:34	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	No	BUY	54	13¢	$7	0x91f63c…
09-06 14:37:18	Will Ethos launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	167	3¢	$5	0x70a871…
09-06 14:37:04	Will Ethos launch a token by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	117	6¢	$7	0x3e7562…
09-06 14:36:46	Will Ethos launch a token by October 8, 2026?	No	BUY	100	8¢	$8	0x3843ad…
09-06 14:36:25	Will Ethos launch a token by October 15, 2026?	No	BUY	107	7¢	$7	0x939ea5…
09-06 14:35:21	Will Apyx launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	231	9¢	$20	0x5ee247…
09-06 14:33:52	Will Papertrade launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	114	14¢	$16	0x54bc61…
09-06 14:32:34	Will Cambria launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	58	9¢	$5	0x105a7f…
09-06 14:32:22	Will Cambria launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	242	8¢	$20	0x6c618f…
09-06 14:31:45	Will Cambria launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	50	61¢	$31	0x389787…
09-06 14:31:21	Will Extended launch a token by September 30 2026?	No	SELL	100	99¢	$99	0xce9fbc…
08-29 17:07:42	Will Extended launch a token by September 30 2026?	No	SELL	50	95¢	$47	0x5f9f65…
08-29 17:07:00	Will Extended launch a token by September 30 2026?	No	SELL	100	95¢	$95	0x2e65a4…
08-29 17:06:13	Will Cambria launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	51	20¢	$10	0x0af306…
08-29 17:05:52	Will Cambria launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	40	20¢	$8	0x50ea09…
08-29 16:59:51	Will Cambria launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	233	4¢	$10	0x99f4a4…
08-29 16:59:36	Will Cambria launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	99	18¢	$18	0x99fe68…
08-29 16:59:15	Will Cambria launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	35	17¢	$6	0x1a21eb…
08-29 16:58:39	Will the total domestic gross for The Odyssey be at least 350m by August 31?	No	BUY	919	0¢	$4	0x6a29be…
08-16 11:29:01	Will Extended launch a token by December 31 2026?	No	BUY	14	14¢	$2	0xcb7e9f…
08-15 19:39:09	Will Extended launch a token by December 31 2026?	No	BUY	83	12¢	$10	0x9c4431…
08-15 19:38:46	will cambria launch a token by december 31 2026	No	BUY	55	9¢	$5	0xc19772…
08-15 19:34:31	Will the total domestic gross for The Odyssey be at least 350m by August 31?	No	BUY	103	2¢	$2	0x938079…
08-14 13:41:46	will cambria launch a token by september 30 2026	No	BUY	17	30¢	$5	0xf5916e…
08-14 13:41:28	will cambria launch a token by december 31 2026	No	BUY	71	7¢	$5	0xf08ea0…
08-14 13:40:15	Will Extended launch a token by December 31 2026?	No	BUY	145	11¢	$16	0xc2a6b0…
08-14 13:35:51	Will the total domestic gross for The Odyssey be at least 350m by August 31?	No	BUY	171	2¢	$3	0xc50abd…
08-14 13:34:57	will cambria launch a token by december 31 2026	No	BUY	129	7¢	$9	0x752369…
08-01 12:53:45	will cambria launch a token by december 31 2026	No	BUY	42	12¢	$5	0x3c274f…
08-01 12:53:27	will cambria launch a token by september 30 2026	No	BUY	24	21¢	$5	0x1d409e…
08-01 12:53:02	will squid launch a token by december 31 2026	No	BUY	69	7¢	$5	0x5ffe28…
08-01 12:52:45	will squid launch a token by september 30 2026	No	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x083ac4…
08-01 12:52:35	will squid launch a token by september 30 2026	No	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0xfa969d…
08-01 12:52:27	will squid launch a token by september 30 2026	No	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x19fa83…
08-01 12:52:03	will squid launch a token by october 31 2026	No	BUY	214	7¢	$15	0x29df06…
08-01 11:42:44	will squid launch a token by august 31 2026	No	BUY	25	12¢	$3	0x08a1c3…
08-01 11:42:27	will squid launch a token by august 31 2026	No	BUY	45	11¢	$5	0x00ff95…
08-01 11:42:06	will squid launch a token by august 31 2026	No	BUY	91	11¢	$10	0x86571e…
08-01 11:41:38	will cambria launch a token by september 30 2026	No	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0x7ea058…
08-01 11:41:30	will cambria launch a token by september 30 2026	No	BUY	51	20¢	$10	0x38c118…
08-01 11:40:51	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026	No	SELL	34	100¢	$34	0xdb52e2…
08-01 11:39:38	Will the total domestic gross for The Odyssey be at least 350m by August 31?	No	BUY	346	3¢	$10	0x74f206…
08-01 11:39:11	Will the total domestic gross for The Odyssey be at least 350m by August 31?	No	BUY	770	3¢	$20	0x50c082…
07-29 03:19:59	Will the total domestic gross for The Odyssey be at least 350m by August 31?	No	BUY	75	4¢	$3	0xada28d…
07-29 03:18:23	Will the total domestic gross for The Odyssey be at least 350m by August 31?	No	BUY	242	4¢	$10	0xb75abc…
07-29 03:17:00	Will Cambria launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	26	19¢	$5	0x098b91…
07-29 03:16:50	Will Cambria launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	29	17¢	$5	0x820eb5…
07-29 03:16:41	Will Cambria launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	59	17¢	$10	0xb16b40…
07-29 03:16:30	Will Cambria launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	94	11¢	$10	0x025cd7…
07-29 03:15:51	Will Squid launch a token by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	49	14¢	$7	0xe6a0f9…
07-29 03:15:27	Will Squid launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	182	5¢	$10	0x795293…
07-26 21:12:46	will trump meet with benjamin netanyahu in july 2026 20260626153701914	No	BUY	26	4¢	$1	0x8c8384…
07-26 21:12:40	will trump meet with benjamin netanyahu in july 2026 20260626153701914	No	BUY	27	4¢	$1	0xa86c8c…
07-26 21:12:24	will trump meet with benjamin netanyahu in july 2026 20260626153701914	No	BUY	256	4¢	$9	0x21b6e5…
07-26 21:12:13	will trump meet with benjamin netanyahu in july 2026 20260626153701914	No	BUY	123	3¢	$4	0x2d5f8e…
07-26 21:10:52	will trump meet with benjamin netanyahu in july 2026 20260626153701914	No	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0x2f29fa…
07-24 18:45:39	will trump meet with benjamin netanyahu in july 2026 20260626153701914	No	BUY	82	12¢	$10	0xc31bd9…
07-24 18:45:22	will trump meet with benjamin netanyahu in july 2026 20260626153701914	No	BUY	119	10¢	$12	0x1f6c32…
07-20 02:25:21	will trump meet with joseph aoun in july 2026 20260626153701915	No	BUY	800	0¢	$4	0x62e5b1…
07-19 21:55:04	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 team to advance	Spain	BUY	54	92¢	$50	0x6df92b…
07-19 21:53:49	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 team to advance	Spain	BUY	54	92¢	$50	0xf6df5e…
07-19 21:44:01	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 team to advance	Argentina	SELL	101	8¢	$8	0x221148…
07-19 21:43:25	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	186	6¢	$11	0x4354e8…
07-19 21:22:51	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	60	31¢	$19	0xbe7323…
07-19 21:15:13	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	9	23¢	$2	0x15d0d9…
07-19 21:12:13	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	75	26¢	$20	0x47efad…
07-19 20:55:12	Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 115m?	No	BUY	210	1¢	$3	0x7fd443…
07-19 03:13:45	will squid launch a token by december 31 2026	No	BUY	50	12¢	$6	0x4b3852…
07-19 03:13:24	will squid launch a token by december 31 2026	No	BUY	83	12¢	$10	0xcd0d88…
07-19 03:12:57	president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	No	BUY	91	2¢	$2	0xa4ef54…
07-19 01:27:36	Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 115m?	No	BUY	69	1¢	$1	0x0f933b…